898 resultados para Bayesian shared component model


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Culture consists of shared cognitive representations in the minds of individuals. This paper investigates the extent to which English speakers share the "same" semantic structure of English kinship terms. The semantic structure is defined as the arrangement of the terms relative to each other as represented in a metric space in which items judged more similar are placed closer to each other than items judged as less similar. The cognitive representation of the semantic structure, residing in the mind of an individual, is measured by judged similarity tasks involving comparisons among terms. Using six independent measurements, from each of 122 individuals, correspondence analysis represents the data in a common multidimensional spatial representation. Judged by a variety of statistical procedures, the individuals in our sample share virtually identical cognitive representations of the semantic structure of kinship terms. This model of culture accounts for 70-90% of the total variability in these data. We argue that our findings on kinship should generalize to all semantic domains--e.g., animals, emotions, etc. The investigation of semantic domains is important because they may reside in localized functional units in the brain, because they relate to a variety of cognitive processes, and because they have the potential to provide methods for diagnosing individual breakdowns in the structure of cognitive representations typical of such ailments as Alzheimer disease.

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Produtos com um tempo considerável de utilização podem ser objeto de um processo de manutenção mais amplo e profundo, que visa prolongar a sua vida útil. O termo recuperação é aplicado a este tipo de manutenção, que visa à substituição de peças defeituosas, desgastadas, e/ou com a vida útil encerrada. O surgimento de novos paradigmas e de um novo conjunto de doutrinas operacionais pode mudar as expectativas e necessidades das partes interessadas de modo que o produto pode ser proposto para uma modernização. Assim, o produto pode ser reengenheirado durante a sua recuperação. Para realizar um projeto de recuperação e modernização, propõe-se uma abordagem em seis passos centrada numa decisão baseada no risco para classificar os componentes de acordo com a ação a ser realizada. A análise do produto é desenvolvida com base em técnicas de desmontagem e uma análise da fase operacional é realizada para as tomadas de decisões. Deste modo, um componente pode sofrer manutenção, ser modernizado, ser excluído, ser inserido ou permanecer fora do escopo dos trabalhos. O processo da gestão baseada em risco também inclui duas fases de monitoramento de risco continuado: durante a produção e na fase de operação. As decisões podem ser revistas pelo uso da análise bayesiana. Um estudo de caso é proposto para ilustrar o modelo num programa de recuperação e modernização de veículos blindados realizada numa unidade do Exército Brasileiro. A aplicação da metodologia permitiu a seleção de uma alternativa de modernização, considerando riscos e benefícios. O desdobramento das análises no projeto detalhado permitiu a definição final do escopo de recuperação e modernização, observando efeitos de propagação de alterações de engenharia. A principal contribuição deste trabalho é a formalização de um estudo da recuperação e modernização como projeto específico, descrevendo suas características de uma forma a permitir a aplicação de um modelo baseado em risco.

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For many years, humans and machines have shared the same physical space. To facilitate their interaction with humans, their social integration and for more rational behavior has been sought that the robots demonstrate human-like behavior. For this it is necessary to understand how human behavior is generated, discuss what tasks are performed and how relate to themselves, for subsequent implementation in robots. In this paper, we propose a model of competencies based on human neuroregulator system for analysis and decomposition of behavior into functional modules. Using this model allow separate and locate the tasks to be implemented in a robot that displays human-like behavior. As an example, we show the application of model to the autonomous movement behavior on unfamiliar environments and its implementation in various simulated and real robots with different physical configurations and physical devices of different nature. The main result of this work has been to build a model of competencies that is being used to build robotic systems capable of displaying behaviors similar to humans and consider the specific characteristics of robots.

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In this paper we propose a two-component polarimetric model for soil moisture estimation on vineyards suited for C-band radar data. According to a polarimetric analysis carried out here, this scenario is made up of one dominant direct return from the soil and a multiple scattering component accounting for disturbing and nonmodeled signal fluctuations from soil and short vegetation. We propose a combined X-Bragg/Fresnel approach to characterize the polarized direct response from soil. A validation of this polarimetric model has been performed in terms of its consistency with respect to the available data both from RADARSAT-2 and from indoor measurements. High inversion rates are reported for different phenological stages of vines, and the model gives a consistent interpretation of the data as long as the volume component power remains about or below 50% of the surface contribution power. However, the scarcity of soil moisture measurements in this study prevents the validation of the algorithm in terms of the accuracy of soil moisture retrieval and an extensive campaign is required to fully demonstrate the validity of the model. Different sources of mismatches between the model and the data have been also discussed and analyzed.

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Humans and machines have shared the same physical space for many years. To share the same space, we want the robots to behave like human beings. This will facilitate their social integration, their interaction with humans and create an intelligent behavior. To achieve this goal, we need to understand how human behavior is generated, analyze tasks running our nerves and how they relate to them. Then and only then can we implement these mechanisms in robotic beings. In this study, we propose a model of competencies based on human neuroregulator system for analysis and decomposition of behavior into functional modules. Using this model allow separate and locate the tasks to be implemented in a robot that displays human-like behavior. As an example, we show the application of model to the autonomous movement behavior on unfamiliar environments and its implementation in various simulated and real robots with different physical configurations and physical devices of different nature. The main result of this study has been to build a model of competencies that is being used to build robotic systems capable of displaying behaviors similar to humans and consider the specific characteristics of robots.

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In this letter, a new approach for crop phenology estimation with remote sensing is presented. The proposed methodology is aimed to exploit tools from a dynamical system context. From a temporal sequence of images, a geometrical model is derived, which allows us to translate this temporal domain into the estimation problem. The evolution model in state space is obtained through dimensional reduction by a principal component analysis, defining the state variables, of the observations. Then, estimation is achieved by combining the generated model with actual samples in an optimal way using a Kalman filter. As a proof of concept, an example with results obtained with this approach over rice fields by exploiting stacks of TerraSAR-X dual polarization images is shown.

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This paper presents an approach to the belief system based on a computational framework in three levels: first, the logic level with the definition of binary local rules, second, the arithmetic level with the definition of recursive functions and finally the behavioural level with the definition of a recursive construction pattern. Social communication is achieved when different beliefs are expressed, modified, propagated and shared through social nets. This approach is useful to mimic the belief system because the defined functions provide different ways to process the same incoming information as well as a means to propagate it. Our model also provides a means to cross different beliefs so, any incoming information can be processed many times by the same or different functions as it occurs is social nets.

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A hydrological–economic model is introduced to describe the dynamics of groundwater-dependent economics (agriculture and tourism) for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands. The Amtoudi Oasis, a remote area in southern Morocco, in the northern Sahara attractive for tourism and with evidence of groundwater degradation, was chosen to show the model operation. Governing system variables were identified and put into action through System Dynamics (SD) modeling causal diagrams to program basic formulations into a model having two modules coupled by the nexus ‘pumping’: (1) the hydrological module represents the net groundwater balance (G) dynamics; and (2) the economic module reproduces the variation in the consumers of water, both the population and tourists. The model was operated under similar influx of tourists and different scenarios of water availability, such as the wet 2009–2010 and the average 2010–2011 hydrological years. The rise in international tourism is identified as the main driving force reducing emigration and introducing new social habits in the population, in particular concerning water consumption. Urban water allotment (PU) was doubled for less than a 100-inhabitant net increase in recent decades. The water allocation for agriculture (PI), the largest consumer of water, had remained constant for decades. Despite that the 2-year monitoring period is not long enough to draw long-term conclusions, groundwater imbalance was reflected by net aquifer recharge (R) less than PI + PU (G < 0) in the average year 2010–2011, with net lateral inflow from adjacent Cambrian formations being the largest recharge component. R is expected to be much less than PI + PU in recurrent dry spells. Some low-technology actions are tentatively proposed to mitigate groundwater degradation, such as: wastewater capture, treatment, and reuse for irrigation; storm-water harvesting for irrigation; and active maintenance of the irrigation system to improve its efficiency.

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cprplot2 is a variation of official Stata's cprplot and is used for graphing component-plus-residual plots (a.k.a. partial residual plots). Additional features (compared to cprplot): (1) cprplot2 can handle variables that enter the model repeatedly via different transformations (for example, polynomials). (2) cprplot2 can display component-plus-residual plots using the original units for transformed variables in the model. (3) A wrapper is provided to quickly display several component-plus-residual plots in a single image.

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The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics at the component level has historically been hampered by missing observations and high sampling noise. A simple state-space statistical model is developed that is robust to these problems, gives a good fit to the data, and proves capable of both handling and predicting missing observations well. Furthermore, the sum of the fitted abundance indices across all components proves an excellent proxy for the biomass of the total stock, even though the model utilizes information at the individual-component level. The Orkney-Shetland component appears to have recovered faster from historic depletion events than the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual components of the North Sea herring stock.

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Both long-term environmental changes such as those driven by the glacial cycles and more recent anthropogenic impacts have had major effects on the past demography in wild organisms. Within species, these changes are reflected in the amount and distribution of neutral genetic variation. In this thesis, mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA was analysed to investigate how environmental and anthropogenic factors have affected genetic diversity and structure in four ecologically different animal species. Paper I describes the post-glacial recolonisation history of the speckled-wood butterfly (Pararge aegeria) in Northern Europe. A decrease in genetic diversity with latitude and a marked population structure were uncovered, consistent with a hypothesis of repeated founder events during the postglacial recolonisation. Moreover, Approximate Bayesian Computation analyses indicate that the univoltine populations in Scandinavia and Finland originate from recolonisations along two routes, one on each side of the Baltic. Paper II aimed to investigate how past sea-level rises affected the population history of the convict surgeonfish (Acanthurus triostegus) in the Indo-Pacific. Assessment of the species’ demographic history suggested a population expansion that occurred approximately at the end of the last glaciation. Moreover, the results demonstrated an overall lack of phylogeographic structure, probably due to the high dispersal rates associated with the species’ pelagic larval stage. Populations at the species’ eastern range margin were significantly differentiated from other populations, which likely is a consequence of their geographic isolation. In Paper III, we assessed the effect of human impact on the genetic variation of European moose (Alces alces) in Sweden. Genetic analyses revealed a spatial structure with two genetic clusters, one in northern and one in southern Sweden, which were separated by a narrow transition zone. Moreover, demographic inference suggested a recent population bottleneck. The inferred timing of this bottleneck coincided with a known reduction in population size in the 19th and early 20th century due to high hunting pressure. In Paper IV, we examined the effect of an indirect but well-described human impact, via environmental toxic chemicals (PCBs), on the genetic variation of Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra) in Sweden. Genetic clustering assignment revealed differentiation between otters in northern and southern Sweden, but also in the Stockholm region. ABC analyses indicated a decrease in effective population size in both northern and southern Sweden. Moreover, comparative analyses of historical and contemporary samples demonstrated a more severe decline in genetic diversity in southern Sweden compared to northern Sweden, in agreement with the levels of PCBs found.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08