The impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the atmospheric pollutant variability in the Porto region, Portugal

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important large-scale atmospheric circulation that influences the European countries climate. This study evaluated NAO impact in air quality in Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), Portugal, for the period 2002-2006. NAO, air pollutants and meteorological data were statistically analyzed. All data were obtained from PMA Weather Station, PMA Air Quality Stations and NOAA analysis. Two statistical methods were applied in different time scale : principal component and correlation coefficient. Annual time scale, using multivariate analysis (PCA, principal component analysis), were applied in order to identified positive and significant association between air pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO and NO2, with NAO. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient using seasonal time scale were also applied to the same data. The results of PCA analysis present a general negative significant association between the total precipitation and NAO, in Factor 1 and 2 (explaining around 70% of the variance), presented in the years of 2002, 2004 and 2005. During the same years, some air pollutants (such as PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx and CO) present also a positive association with NAO. The O3 shows as well a positive association with NAP during 2002 and 2004, at 2nd Factor, explaining 30% of the variance. From the seasonal analysis using correlation coefficient, it was found significant correlation between PM10 (0.72., p<0.05, in 2002), PM2.5 (0 74, p<0.05, in 2004), and SO2 (0.78, p<0.01, in 2002) with NAO during March-December (no winter period) period. Significant associations between air pollutants and NAO were also verified in the winter period (December to April) mainly with ozone (2005, r=-0.55, p.<0.01). Once that human health and hospital morbidities may be affected by air pollution, the results suggest that NAO forecast can be an important tool to prevent them, in the Iberian Peninsula and specially Portugal.

Big Decisions and Sparse Data: Adapting Scientific Publishing to the Needs of Practical Conservation

The biggest challenge in conservation biology is breaking down the gap between research and practical management. A major obstacle is the fact that many researchers are unwilling to tackle projects likely to produce sparse or messy data because the results would be difficult to publish in refereed journals. The obvious solution to sparse data is to build up results from multiple studies. Consequently, we suggest that there needs to be greater emphasis in conservation biology on publishing papers that can be built on by subsequent research rather than on papers that produce clear results individually. This building approach requires: (1) a stronger theoretical framework, in which researchers attempt to anticipate models that will be relevant in future studies and incorporate expected differences among studies into those models; (2) use of modern methods for model selection and multi-model inference, and publication of parameter estimates under a range of plausible models; (3) explicit incorporation of prior information into each case study; and (4) planning management treatments in an adaptive framework that considers treatments applied in other studies. We encourage journals to publish papers that promote this building approach rather than expecting papers to conform to traditional standards of rigor as stand-alone papers, and believe that this shift in publishing philosophy would better encourage researchers to tackle the most urgent conservation problems.

The Influence of Summer Climate on Avian Community Composition in the Eastern Boreal Forest of Canada

Understanding the relative influence of environmental variables, especially climate, in driving variation in species diversity is becoming increasingly important for the conservation of biodiversity. The objective of this study was to determine to what extent climate can explain the structure and diversity of forest bird communities by sampling bird abundance in homogenous mature spruce stands in the boreal forest of the Québec-Labrador peninsula using variance partitioning techniques. We also quantified the relationship among two climatic gradients, summer temperature and precipitation, and bird species richness, migratory strategy, and spring arrival phenology. For the bird community, climate factors appear to be most important in explaining species distribution and abundance because nearly 15% of the variation in the distribution of the 44 breeding birds selected for the analysis can be explained by climate. The vegetation variables we selected were responsible for a much smaller amount of the explained variation (4%). Breeding season temperature seems to be more important than precipitation in driving variation in bird species diversity at the scale of our analysis. Partial correlation analysis indicated that bird species richness distribution was determined by the temperature gradient, because the number of species increased with increasing breeding season temperature. Similar results were observed between breeding season temperature and the number of residents, short-distance and long-distance migrants, and early and late spring migrants. Our results suggest that the northern and southern range boundaries of species are not equally sensitive to the temperature gradient across the region.

Effects of Gunnison Sage-Grouse habitat treatment efforts on associated avifauna and vegetation structure

Conservation efforts over the last 20 years for the Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) have involved extensive habitat manipulations done predominantly to improve brood rearing habitat for the grouse. However, the effects of Gunnison Sage-Grouse habitat treatments on sympatric avifauna and responses of vegetation to manipulations are rarely measured, and if they are, it is immediately following treatment implementation. This study examined the concept of umbrella species management by retrospectively comparing density and occupancy of eight sagebrush associated songbird species and six measures of vegetation in treated and control sites. Our results suggested that songbird densities and occupancy changed for birds at the extreme ends of their association with sagebrush and varied with fine-scale habitat structure. We found Brewer’s Sparrows (Spizella breweri) decreased in density on treated sites and Vesper Sparrows (Pooecetes gramineus) increased. Occupancy estimation revealed that Brewer’s Sparrows and Green-tailed Towhees (Pipilo chlorurus) occupied significantly fewer treated points whereas Vesper Sparrows occupied significantly more. Vegetation comparisons between treated and control areas found shrub cover to be 26% lower in treated sites. Lower shrub cover in treated areas may explain the differences in occupancy and densities of the species sampled based on known habitat needs. The fine-scale analysis showed a negative relationship to forb height and cover for the Sage Sparrow (Amphispiza belli) indicating, from vegetation measures showing grass and forb cover during a good precipitation year covered significantly more area in the treatment than the control sites, that Sage Sparrows may also not respond favorably to Gunnison Sage-Grouse habitat treatments. While the concept of an umbrella species is appealing, evidence from this study suggests that conservation efforts aimed at the Gunnison Sage-Grouse may not be particularly effective for conserving other sagebrush obligate species of concern. This is probably due to Gunnison Sage-Grouse habitat management being focused on the improvement of brood rearing habitat which reduces sagebrush cover and promotes development of understory forbs and grasses.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulfur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the climateprediction.net platform

Aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources have been recognized as having an important impact on the climate system. However, the small size of aerosol particles (ranging from 0.01 to more than 10 μm in diameter) and their influence on solar and terrestrial radiation makes them difficult to represent within the coarse resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) such that small-scale processes, for example, sulfate formation and conversion, need parameterizing. It is the parameterization of emissions, conversion, and deposition and the radiative effects of aerosol particles that causes uncertainty in their representation within GCMs. The aim of this study was to perturb aspects of a sulfur cycle scheme used within a GCM to represent the climatological impacts of sulfate aerosol derived from natural and anthropogenic sulfur sources. It was found that perturbing volcanic SO2 emissions and the scavenging rate of SO2 by precipitation had the largest influence on the sulfate burden. When these parameters were perturbed the sulfate burden ranged from 0.73 to 1.17 TgS for 2050 sulfur emissions (A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)), comparable with the range in sulfate burden across all the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRESs. Thus, the results here suggest that the range in sulfate burden due to model uncertainty is comparable with scenario uncertainty. Despite the large range in sulfate burden there was little influence on the climate sensitivity, which had a range of less than 0.5 K across the ensemble. We hypothesize that this small effect was partly associated with high sulfate loadings in the control phase of the experiment.

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality and ecology in six UK rivers

A modelling study has been undertaken to assess the likely impacts of climate change on water quality across the UK. A range of climate change scenarios have been used to generate future precipitation, evaporation and temperature time series at a range of catchments across the UK. These time series have then been used to drive the Integrated Catchment (INCA) suite of flow, water quality and ecological models to simulate flow, nitrate, ammonia, total and soluble reactive phosphorus, sediments, macrophytes and epiphytes in the Rivers Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed and Lambourn. A wide range of responses have been obtained with impacts varying depending on river character, catchment location, flow regime, type of scenario and the time into the future. Essentially upland reaches of river will respond differently to lowland reaches of river, and the responses will vary depending on the water quality parameter of interest.

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10-20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean's thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.

A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetated land surface

Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

Monitoring changes in precipitation and radiative energy using satellite data and climate models

Current changes in the tropical hydrological cycle, including water vapour and precipitation, are presented over the period 1979-2008 based on a diverse suite of observational datasets and atmosphere-only climate models. Models capture the observed variability in tropical moisture while reanalyses cannot. Observed variability in precipitation is highly dependent upon the satellite instruments employed and only cursory agreement with model simulations, primarily relating to the interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. All datasets display a positive relationship between precipitation and surface temperature but with a large spread. The tendency for wet, ascending regions to become wetter at the expense of dry, descending regimes is in general reproduced. Finally, the frequency of extreme precipitation is shown to rise with warming in the observations and for the model ensemble mean but with large spread in the model simulations. The influence of the Earth’s radiative energy balance in relation to changes in the tropical water cycle are discussed

Controls on development and diversity of Early Archean stromatolites

The ≈3,450-million-year-old Strelley Pool Formation in Western Australia contains a reef-like assembly of laminated sedimentary accretion structures (stromatolites) that have macroscale characteristics suggestive of biological influence. However, direct microscale evidence of biology—namely, organic microbial remains or biosedimentary fabrics—has to date eluded discovery in the extensively-recrystallized rocks. Recently-identified outcrops with relatively good textural preservation record microscale evidence of primary sedimentary processes, including some that indicate probable microbial mat formation. Furthermore, we find relict fabrics and organic layers that covary with stromatolite morphology, linking morphologic diversity to changes in sedimentation, seafloor mineral precipitation, and inferred microbial mat development. Thus, the most direct and compelling signatures of life in the Strelley Pool Formation are those observed at the microscopic scale. By examining spatiotemporal changes in microscale characteristics it is possible not only to recognize the presence of probable microbial mats during stromatolite development, but also to infer aspects of the biological inputs to stromatolite morphogenesis. The persistence of an inferred biological signal through changing environmental circumstances and stromatolite types indicates that benthic microbial populations adapted to shifting environmental conditions in early oceans.

Physico-chemical controls on phosphorus cycling in two lowland streams. Part 1 - the water column

This paper investigates phosphorus (P) transport and transformation dynamics in two contrasting sub-catchments of the River Kennel, England. Samples were collected daily under baseflow and hourly under stormflow conditions using autosamplers for 2 years and analysed for a range of determinands (full P fractionation, suspended sediment (SS), cations, pH, alkalinity, temperature and oxygen). Concentrations of SRP, SUP, PP and SS were higher in the flashy River Enborne (means of 0.186, 0.071, 0.101 and 34 mg l(-1), respectively) than the groundwater-fed River Lambourn (0.079, 0.057, 0.028 and 9 mg l(-1), respectively). A seasonal trend in the daily P dataset was evident, with lower concentrations during intermediate flows and the spring (caused by a dilution effect and macrophyte uptake) than during baseflow conditions. However, in the hourly P dataset, highest concentrations were observed during storm events in the autumn and winter (reflecting higher scour with increased capacity to entrain particles). Storm events were more significant in contributing to the total P load in the River Enborne than the River Lambourn, especially during August to October, when dry antecedent conditions were observed in the catchment. Re-suspension of P-rich sediment that accumulated within the channel during summer low flows might account for these observations. It is suggested that a P-calcite co-precipitation mechanism was operating during summer in the River Lambourn, while adsorption by metal oxyhydroxide groups was an important mechanism controlling P fractionation in the River Enborne. The influence of flow conditions and channel storage/release mechanisms on P dynamics in these two lowland rivers is assessed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physico-chemical controls on phosphorus cycling in two lowland streams. Part 2 - The sediment phase

This article investigates the temporal and spatial controls on sediment-phosphorus (P) dynamics in two contrasting sub-catchments of the River Kennet, England. Suspended sediment (collected under representative flow conditions) and size-fractionated bedload (collected weekly for one year) from the Rivers Lambourn and Enborne was analysed for a range of physico-chemical determinands. Total P concentrations were highest in the most mobile fractions of sediment: suspended sediment, fine silt and clay and organic matter (mean concentrations of 1758, 1548 and 1440 mug P g(-1) dry sediment, respectively). Correlation analysis showed significant relationships between total P and total iron (n = 110), total manganese (n = 110), organic matter (n = 110) and specific surface area (n = 28) in the Lambourn (r(2) 0.71, 0.68, 0.62 and 0.52, respectively) and between total P and total iron (n = 110), total manganese (n = 110) and organic matter (n = 110) in the Enborne (r(2) 0.74, 0.85 and 0.68, respectively). These data highlight the importance of metal oxyhydroxide adsorption of P on fine particulates and organic matter. However, high total P concentrations in the granule gravel and coarse sand size fraction during the summer period (mean concentration 228 mug P g(-1) dry sediment) also highlight the role of calcite co-precipitation on P dynamics in the Lambourn. P to cation ratios in Lambourn sediment indicated that fine silt and clay and granule gravel and coarse sand size fractions were potential sources of P release to the water column during specific periods of the summer and autumn. In the Enborne, however, only the granule gravel and coarse sand size fraction had high ratios and a slow, constant release of P was observed. In addition, scanning electron microscopy work confirmed the association of P with calcite in the Lambourn and P with iron on clay particles in the Enborne. The study highlighted the importance of the chemical and physical properties of the sediment in influencing the mechanisms controlling P storage and release within river channels. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of Fe-rich coatings on the dissolution of anorthite at pH 2.6

Surface coatings are very common on mineral grains in soils but most laboratory dissolution experiments are carried out on pristine, uncoated mineral grains. An experiment designed to unambiguously isolate the effect of surface coatings on mineral dissolution from any influence of solution saturation state is reported. Two aliquots of 53 to 63 mum anorthite feldspar powder were used. One was dissolved in pH 2.6 HCl, the other in pH 2.6 FeCl3 solution, both for similar to6000 h in flow-through reactors. An amorphous Fe-rich, Al-, Ca- and Si-free orange precipitate coated the anorthite dissolved in the FeCl3 solution. BET surface area of the anorthite increased from 0.16 to 1.65 m(2) g(-1) in the HCl experiment and to 3.89 m(2) g(-1) in the FeCl3 experiment. The increase in surface area in the HCl experiment was due to the formation of etch pits on the anorthite grain surface whilst the additional increase in the FeCl3 experiment was due to the micro- and meso-porous nature of the orange precipitate. This precipitate did not inhibit or slow the dissolution of the anorthite. Steady state dissolution rates for the anorthite dissolved in the HCl and FeCl3 were similar to2.5 and 3.2 X 10(-10) mol(feldspar) m(-2) s(-1) respectively. These rates are not significantly different after the cumulative uncertainty of 17% in their value due to uncertainty in the inputs parameters used in their calculation is taken into account. Results from this experiment support previous theoretical and inference-based conclusions that porous coatings should not inhibit mineral dissolution. Copyright (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd.