964 resultados para Baseline forecast


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The prefrontal cortex is continuously required for working memory processing during wakefulness, but is particularly hypoactivated during sleep and in psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia. Ammon`s horn CA1 hippocampus subfield (CA1) afferents provide a functional modulatory path that is subjected to synaptic plasticity and a prominent monoaminergic influence. However, little is known about the muscarinic cholinergic effects on prefrontal synapses. Here, we investigated the effects of the muscarinic agonist, pilocarpine (PILO), on the induction and maintenance of CA1-medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) long-term potentiation (LTP) as well as on brain monoamine levels. Field evoked responses were recorded in urethane-anesthetized rats during baseline (50 min) and after LTP (130 min), and compared with controls. LTP was induced 20 min after PILO administration (15 mg/kg, i.p.) or vehicle (NaCl 0.15 M, i.p.). In a separate group of animals, the hippocampus and mPFC were microdissected 20 min after PILO injection and used to quantify monoamine levels. Our results show that PILO potentiates the late-phase of mPFC UP without affecting either post-tetanic potentiation or early LTP (20 min). This effect was correlated with a significant decrease in relative delta (1-4 Hz) power and an increase in sigma (10-15 Hz) and gamma (2540 Hz) powers in CA1. Monoamine levels were specifically altered in the mPFC. We observed a decrease in dopamine, 5-HT, 5-hydroxyindolacetic acid and noradrenaline levels, with no changes in 3,4-hydroxyphenylacetic acid levels. Our data, therefore, suggest that muscarinic activation exerts a boosting effect on mPFC synaptic plasticity and possibly on mPFC-dependent memories, associated to monoaminergic changes. (C) 2008 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Purpose: To assess, by a crossover 2 x 2 in situ study, the speculated protective role of a sodium bicarbonate-containing toothpaste in controlling erosive lesions. Methods: Bovine enamel slabs were sterilized, and submitted to baseline Knoop microhardness measurements. After a 3-day lead-in period, 14 volunteers wore palatal acrylic appliances containing six enamel slabs (three on each side), for 4 consecutive days. On the first day, appliances with contained specimens were placed in the oral cavity to allow salivary pellicle formation. On the subsequent days, half of the enamel slabs were immersed extraorally in a lemonade-like soft drink for 90 seconds, twice daily. On both of these occasions, the appliance was dipped in toothpaste slurry of either a sodium bicarbonate-containing toothpaste or a regular counterpart for 60 seconds. Following a 3-day washout period, a new set of enamel slabs were mounted and the volunteers started the second period using the alternate dentifrice. Results: ANOVA (alpha = 0.05) showed no statistically significant difference between enamel treated with regular and sodium bicarbonate-based dentifrices, regardless of whether specimens were eroded or not (P=0.8430). Acid-challenged specimens revealed lower microhardness values than uneroded samples. (Am J Dent 2008;21:300-302).

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To evaluate the effect of low and highly concentrated bleaching agents on microhardness and surface roughness of bovine enamel and root dentin. According to a randomized complete block design, 100 specimens of each substrate were assigned into five groups to be treated with bleaching agents containing carbamide peroxide (CP) at 10% (CP10); hydrogen peroxide (HP) at 7.5% (HP7.5) or 38% (HP38), or the combination of 18% of HP and 22% of CP (HP18/CP22), for 3 weeks. The control group was left untreated. Specimens were immersed in artificial saliva between bleaching treatments. Knoop surface microhardness (SMH) and average surface roughness (Ra) were measured at baseline and post-bleaching conditions. For enamel, there were differences between bleaching treatments for both SMH and Ra measurements (p = 0.4009 and p = 0.7650, respectively). SMH significantly increased (p < 0.0001), whereas Ra decreased (p = 0.0207) from baseline to post-bleaching condition. For root dentin, the group treated with CP10 exhibited the significantly highest SMH value differing from those groups bleached with HP18/CP22, HP7.5, which did not differ from each other. Application of HP38 resulted in intermediate SMH values. No significant differences were found for Ra (p = 0.5975). Comparing the baseline and post-bleaching conditions, a decrease was observed in SMH (p < 0.0001) and an increase in Ra (p = 0.0063). Bleaching agents with varying concentrations of CP and/or HP are capable of causing mineral loss in root dentin. Enamel does not perform in such bleaching agent-dependent fashion when one considers either hardness or surface roughness evaluations. Bleaching did not alter the enamel microhardness and surface roughness, but in root dentin, microhardness seems to be dependent on the bleaching agent used.

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Objective: To provide prevalence data on several key mental health indicators for young people aged 15 to 24 years. Methods: A cross-sectional household survey, using telephone recruitment followed by a postal pencil-and-paper questionnaire. The overall response rate was 67.3%. Results: Difficulties with interpersonal relationships are common causes of distress for young people, in particular problems with parents, problems with friends and relationship break-ups. Depressive symptomatology is common among young people with approximately one in eight males and one in four females reporting current depressive symptomatology. One in three young people reported that they had had suicidal thoughts at some time in the past, 1.2% of young people reported that they had made a plan on how to kill themselves in the four-week period prior to completing the survey and 6.9% of young people reported that they had tried to kill themselves at some time during their life time (4.2% of males and 9.0% of females). Conclusions and implications: The prevalence figures for the various mental health indicators presented in this paper represent good baseline information upon which to examine the progress over time of interventions designed to improve the mental health of young people.

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P>This study assessed the effect of simulated mastication on the retention of two stud attachment systems for 2-implants overdentures. Sixteen specimens, each simulating an edentulous ridge with implants and an overdenture were divided into two groups, according to the attachment system: Group I (Nobel Biocare ball-socket attachments) and Group II (Locator attachments). Retention forces were measured before and after 400 000 simulated masticatory loads in a customised device. Data were compared by two-way anova followed by Bonferroni test (alpha = 0 center dot 05). Group I presented significantly lower retention forces (Newtons) than Group II at baseline (10 center dot 6 +/- 3 center dot 6 and 66 center dot 4 +/- 16 center dot 0, respectively). However, differences were not significant after 400 000 loads (7 center dot 9 +/- 4 center dot 3 and 21 center dot 6 +/- 17 center dot 0). The number of cycles did not influence the measurements in Group I, whereas a non-linear descending curve was found for Group II. It was concluded that simulated mastication resulted in minor changes for the ball attachment tested. Nevertheless, it reduced the retention of Locator attachments to 40% of the baseline values, what suggests that mastication is a major factor associated with maintenance needs for this system.

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Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of the domestic use of a disclosing agent for denture hygiene. Materials and methods: Completely edentulous participants wearing maxillary dentures were randomly assigned to one of the three intervention groups: (1) Follow-up only (control; n = 12); (2) Oral and denture hygiene instructions (n = 10); (3) Instructions associated with the home use of a disclosing agent (1% neutral red; n = 10). Biofilm coverage area (%) over internal and external surfaces of the maxillary denture was assessed at baseline and after 14 and 90 days. Data were evaluated by generalised estimating equations based on score tests (alpha = 0.05). Results: The participants presented low changes for areas of biofilm coverage (14 days (%): internal: GI = 1.4 +/- 0.9; GII = 1.5 +/- 1.3; GIII = -0.4 +/- 0.9; external: GI = 1.4 +/- 1.5; GII = 1.5 +/- 1.4; GIII = -0.4 +/- 0.9; 90 days (%): internal: GI = 2.0 +/- 0.9; GII = 2.2 +/- 1.4; GIII = 0.3 +/- 1.0; external: GI = 2.1 +/- 1.4; GII = 2.2 +/- 1.5; GIII = 0.3 +/- 0.9). Changes were similar for the three groups (p = 0.293) and were not influenced by the test time (p = 0.218). Conclusion: It can be concluded that the home use of a disclosing agent for denture hygiene does not improve the removal of the biofilm, particularly for patients with adequate oral hygiene habits.

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Purpose: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the clinical efficacy of an experimental dentifrice (CH) containing an antimicrobial agent (1% chloramine-T). Materials and Methods: A clinical, fully randomised, double-blind comparative study was designed for 30 selected patients aged 15 to 50 years, with no periodontal disease, decay or other oral diseases, good general health and the presence of dental plaque and sulcus bleeding. Baseline Turesky modified plaque index (PI) and sulcus bleeding index (SBI) were scored for all patients. Volunteers randomly received the experimental dentifrice (CH) or a commercial-brand dentifrice containing triclosan (TR). Both dentifrices were provided in identical, number-labelled tubes, and the subjects were instructed to use the supplied dentifrice only for their usual oral hygiene, three times a day for a duration of 7 days. After 7-day use of dentifrices, the PI and SBI were assessed again. The data obtained were subjected to the Kruskal Wallis test, followed by Dunn`s post hoc test. Results: After 7-day use of dentifrices, the PI scores diminished significantly for both evaluated dentifrices. The SBI values decreased significantly for both experimental and commercial-brand dentifrices. Conclusions: Both dentifrices reduced PI and SBI. By comparing the experimental and gold-standard dentifrice, it was found that there was no statistically significant difference between the PI and SBI scores after their use, suggesting that they exerted a similar effect on the oral health indexes.

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Background Icodextrin is a high molecular weight, starch-derived glucose polymer, which is capable of inducing sustained ultrafiltration over prolonged (12–16 hour) peritoneal dialysis (PD) dwells. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of icodextrin to alleviate refractory, symptomatic fluid overload and prolong technique survival in PD patients. Methods A prospective, open-label, pre-test/post-test study was conducted in 17 PD patients (8 females/9 males, mean age 56.8 ± 2.9 years) who were on the verge of being transferred to haemodialysis because of symptomatic fluid retention that was refractory to fluid restriction, loop diuretic therapy, hypertonic glucose exchanges and dwell time optimisation. One icodextrin exchange (2.5 L 7.5%, 12-hour dwell) was substituted for a long-dwell glucose exchange each day. Results Icodextrin significantly increased peritoneal ultrafiltration (885 ± 210 ml to 1454 ± 215 ml, p < 0.05) and reduced mean arterial pressure (106 ± 4 to 96 ± 4 mmHg, p < 0.05), but did not affect weight, plasma albumin concentration, haemoglobin levels or dialysate:plasma creatinine ratio. Diabetic patients (n = 12) also experienced improved glycaemic control (haemoglobin Alc decreased from 8.9 ± 0.7% to 7.9 ± 0.7%, p < 0.05). Overall PD technique survival was prolonged by a mean of 11.6 months (95% CI 6.0–17.3 months). On multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, extension of technique survival by icodextrin was only significantly predicted by baseline net daily peritoneal ultrafiltration (adjusted HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.13–5.62, p < 0.05). Conclusions Icodextrin significantly improved peritoneal ultrafiltration and extended technique survival in PD patients with symptomatic fluid overload, especially those who had substantially impaired peritoneal ultrafiltration.

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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: The long-term relations between specific types of dietary fat and risk of type 2 diabetes remain unclear. Objective: Our objective was to examine the relations between dietary fat intakes and the risk of type 2 diabetes. Design: We prospectively followed 84204 women aged 34–59 y with no diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer in 1980. Detailed dietary information was assessed at baseline and updated in 1984, 1986, and 1990 by using validated questionnaires. Relative risks of type 2 diabetes were obtained from pooled logistic models adjusted for nondietary and dietary covariates. Results: During 14 y of follow-up, 2507 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. Total fat intake, compared with equivalent energy intake from carbohydrates, was not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes; for a 5% increase in total energy from fat, the relative risk (RR) was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.02). Intakes of saturated or monounsaturated fatty acids were also not significantly associated with the risk of diabetes. However, for a 5% increase in energy from polyunsaturated fat, the RR was 0.63 (0.53, 0.76; P < 0.0001) and for a 2% increase in energy from trans fatty acids the RR was 1.39 (1.15, 1.67; P = 0.0006). We estimated that replacing 2% of energy from trans fatty acids isoenergetically with polyunsaturated fat would lead to a 40% lower risk (RR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.75). Conclusions: These data suggest that total fat and saturated and monounsaturated fatty acid intakes are not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in women, but that trans fatty acids increase and polyunsaturated fatty acids reduce risk. Substituting nonhydrogenated polyunsaturated fatty acids for trans fatty acids would likely reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes substantially.

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Background: Cross-sectional studies have demonstrated that a specific polymorphism (allele 2 of both IL-1A +4845 and IL-1B +3954) in the IL-1 gene cluster has been associated with an increased susceptibility to severe periodontal disease and to an increased bleeding tendency during periodontal maintenance. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between IL-1 genotype and periodontitis in a prospective longitudinal study in an adult population of essentially European heritage. Methods: From an ongoing study of the Oral Care Research Programme of The University of Queensland, 295 subjects consented to genotyping for IL-1 allele 2 polymorphisms. Probing depths and relative attachment levels were recorded at baseline, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months using the Florida probe. Periodontitis progression at a given site was defined as attachment loss greater than or equal to2 mm at any observation period during the 5 years of the study and the extent of disease progression determined by the number of sites showing attachment loss. Porphyromonas gingivalis, Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Prevotella intermedia were detected using ELISA. Results: 38.9% of the subjects were positive for the composite IL-1 genotype. A relationship between the IL-1 positive genotype and increased mean probing pocket depth in non-smokers greater than 50 years of age was found. Further, IL-1 genotype positive smokers and genotype positive subjects with P. gingivalis in their plaque had an increase in the number of probing depths greater than or equal to3.5 mm, There was a consistent trend for IL-1 genotype positive subjects to experience attachment loss when compared with IL-1 genotype negative subjects. Conclusion: The results of this study have shown an interaction of the IL-1 positive genotype with age, smoking and P. gingivalis which suggests that IL-1 genotype is a contributory but non-essential risk factor for periodontal disease progression in this population.

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An inverse association between cigarette smoking and idiopathic Parkinson's disease has been reported in several retrospective studies, but prospective evidence is available only for men. We assessed the association between the incidence of Parkinson's disease and smoking in two large prospective cohort studies comprising men and women. New cases of Parkinson's disease were identified in the Nurses' Health Study for 1976-1996, and in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study for 1986-1996. Smoking history was assessed at baseline and updated on subsequent biennial questionnaires. In women, the age-adjusted rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.7 (0.5, 1.0) for past smokers, and 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) for current smokers. In men, the age-adjusted rate ratios for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) for past smokers, and 0.3 (0.1, 0.8) for current smokers. In both cohorts, the strength of the association decreased with time since quitting (among past smokers), increased with number of cigarettes per day (among current smokers), and increased with pack-years of smoking. These prospective findings confirm that an inverse association between smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease exists in both men and women.

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OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the population pharmacokinetics of magnesium from sparse observational data in patients with preeclampsia. STUDY DESIGN: Serum magnesium concentrations (1-11 per patient) were obtained retrospectively from the records of 116 patients with preeclampsia who had a loading dose of magnesium sulfate (16 or 20 mmol), followed by a maintenance dose (1 mmol/h) over an average of 28 hours. Population clearance, volume of distribution, and the baseline magnesium concentration were estimated using the NONMEM program. RESULTS: The following population typical values, together with the interpatient variability (expressed as coefficient of variation) were obtained with the use of a 1-compartment model: systemic clearance, 4.28 L/h (37.3%); volume of distribution, 32.3 L (32.1%); baseline concentration, 0.811 mmol/L (18.5%). The average half-life was 5.2 hours. Clonus was not obtunded in 4 patients whose serum magnesium concentrations were similar to the average concentration of 1.7 mmol/L. The variability remaining unexplained after the population model was fitted to the data was 6.5% to 10.8%. CONCLUSION: This study extended knowledge of the pharmacokinetic disposition of magnesium in preeclampsia. The results are potentially useful for the calculation of loading and maintenance doses, particularly when the relationship between serum concentration and effect in preeclampsia is clarified.

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Although most prospective cohort studies do not support an association between coffee consumption and pancreatic cancer, the findings for alcohol are inconsistent. Recently, a large prospective cohort study of women reported statistically significant elevations in risk of pancreatic cancer for both coffee and alcoholic beverage consumption. We obtained data on coffee, alcohol, and other dietary factors using semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires administered at baseline (1986 in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1980 in the Nurses’ Health Study) and in subsequent follow-up questionnaires. Data on other risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including cigarette smoking, were also available. Individuals with a history of cancer at study initiation were excluded from all of the analyses. During the 1,907,222 person-years of follow-up, 288 incident cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed. The data were analyzed separately for each cohort, and results were pooled to compute overall relative risks (RR). Neither coffee nor alcohol intakes were associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer in either cohort or after pooling the results (pooled RR, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.27–1.43, for >3 cups of coffee/day versus none; and pooled RR, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.57–1.76, for >=30 grams of alcohol/day versus none). The associations did not change with analyses examining different latency periods for coffee and alcohol. Similarly, no statistically significant associations were observed for intakes of tea, decaffeinated coffee, total caffeine, or alcoholic beverages. Data from these two large cohorts do not support any overall association between coffee intake or alcohol intake and risk of pancreatic cancer.

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The subjective interpretation of dobutamine echocardiography (DBE) makes the accuracy of this technique dependent on the experience of the observer, and also poses problems of concordance between observers. Myocardial tissue Doppler velocity (MDV) may offer a quantitative technique for identification of coronary artery disease, but it is unclear whether this parameter could improve the results of less expert readers and in segments with low interobserver concordance. The aim of this study was to find whether MDV improved the accuracy of wall motion scoring in novice readers, experienced echocardiographers, and experts in stress echocardiography, and to identify the optimal means of integrating these tissue Doppler data in 77 patients who underwent DBE and angiography. New or worsening abnormalities were identified as ischemia and abnormalities seen at rest as scarring. Segmental MDV was measured independently and previously derived cutoffs were applied to categorize segments as normal or ab normal. Five strategies were used to combine MDV and wall motion score, and the results of each reader using each strategy were compared with quantitative coronary angiography. The accuracy of wall motion scoring by novice (68 +/- 3%) and experienced echocardiographers (71 +/- 3%) was less than experts in stress echocardiography (88 +/- 3%, p < 0.001). Various strategies for integration with MDV significantly improved the accuracy of wall motion scoring by novices from 75 +/- 2% to 77 +/- 5% (p < 0.01). Among the experienced group, accuracy improved from 74 +/- 2% to 77 +/- 5% (p < 0.05), but in the experts, no improvement was seen from their baseline accuracy. Integration with MDV also improved discordance related to the basal segments. Thus, use of MDV in all segments or MDV in all segments with wall motion scoring in the apex offers an improvement in sensitivity and accuracy with minimal compromise in specificity. (C) 2001 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.