Disease mapping using Bayesian hierarchical models

description and analysis of geographically indexed health data with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioural, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors (Elliott andWartenberg 2004). Disease maps can be useful for estimating relative risk; ecological analyses, incorporating area and/or individual-level covariates; or cluster analyses (Lawson 2009). As aggregated data are often more readily available, one common method of mapping disease is to aggregate the counts of disease at some geographical areal level, and present them as choropleth maps (Devesa et al. 1999; Population Health Division 2006). Therefore, this chapter will focus exclusively on methods appropriate for areal data...

Reclassification of Pasteurella gallinarum, [Haemophilus] paragallinarum, Pasteurella avium and Pasteurella volantium as Avibacterium gallinarum gen. nov., comb. nov., Avibacterium paragallinarum comb. nov., Avibacterium avium comb. nov. and Avibacterium volantium comb. nov.

This paper describes a phenotypic and genotypic investigation of the taxonomy of [Haemophilus] paragallinarum, Pasteurella gallinarum, Pasteurella avium and Pasteurella volantium, a major subcluster within the avian 16S rRNA cluster 18 of the family Pasteurellaceae. An extended phenotypic characterization was performed of the type strain of [Haemophilus] paragallinarum, which is NAD-dependent, and eight NAD-independent strains of [Haemophilus] paragallinarum. Complete 16S rRNA gene sequences were obtained for one NAD-independent and four NAD-dependent [Haemophilus] paragallinarum strains. These five sequences along with existing 16S rRNA gene sequences for 11 other taxa within avian 16S rRNA cluster 18 as well as seven other taxa from the Pasteurellaceae were subjected to phylogenetic analysis. The analysis demonstrated that [Haemophilus] paragallinarum, Pasteurella gallinarum, Pasteurella avium and Pasteurella volantium formed a monophyletic group with a minimum of 96·8% sequence similarity. This group can also be separated by phenotypic testing from all other recognized and named taxa within the Pasteurellaceae. As both genotypic and phenotypic testing support the separate and distinct nature of this subcluster, the transfer is proposed of Pasteurella gallinarum, [Haemophilus] paragallinarum, Pasteurella avium and Pasteurella volantium to a new genus Avibacterium as Avibacterium gallinarum gen. nov., comb. nov., Avibacterium paragallinarum comb. nov., Avibacterium avium comb. nov. and Avibacterium volantium comb. nov. The type strains are NCTC 1118T (Avibacterium gallinarum), NCTC 11296T (Avibacterium paragallinarum), NCTC 11297T (Avibacterium avium) and NCTC 3438T (Avibacterium volantium). Key characteristics that separate these four species are catalase activity (absent only in Avibacterium paragallinarum) and production of acid from galactose (negative only in Avibacterium paragallinarum), maltose (negative only in Avibacterium avium) and mannitol (negative in Avibacterium gallinarum and Avibacterium avium).

Australian Bat Lyssavirus Infection in a Captive Juvenile Black Flying Fox

The newly emerging Australian bat lyssavirus causes rabies like disease in bats and humans. A captive juvenile black flying fox exhibited progressive neurologic signs, including sudden aggression, vocalization, dysphagia, and paresis over 9 days and then died. At necropsy, lyssavirus infection was diagnosed by fluorescent antibody test, immunoperoxidase staining, polymerase chain reaction, and virus isolation. Eight human contacts received postexposure vaccination.

Potential Human Exposure to Australian Bat Lyssavirus, Queensland, 1996-1999

Two human deaths caused by Australian bat lyssavirus (ABL) infection have been reported since 1996. Information was obtained from 205 persons (mostly adults from south Brisbane and the South Coast of Queensland), who reported potential ABL exposure to the Brisbane Southside Public Health Unit from November 1,1996, to January 31, 1999. Volunteer animal handlers accounted for 39% of potential exposures, their family members for 12%, professional animal handlers for 14%, community members who intentionally handled bats for 31%, and community members with contacts initiated by bats for 4%. The prevalence of Lyssavirus detected by fluorescent antibody test in 366 sick, injured, or orphaned bats from the area was 6%. Sequelae of exposure, including the requirement for expensive postexposure prophylaxis, may be reduced by educating bat handlers and the public of the risks involved in handling Australian bats.

Questions to Artificial Nature: A Philosophical Study of Interdisciplinary Models and their Functions in Scientific Practice

This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.

Antibiotic resistance in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli isolated from poultry in the South-East Queensland region

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the antimicrobial resistance patterns of 125 Campylobacter jejuni and 27 Campylobacter coli isolates from 39 Queensland broiler farms. Methods: Two methods, a disc diffusion assay and an agar-based MIC assay, were used. The disc diffusion was performed and interpreted as previously described (Huysmans MB, Turnidge JD. Disc susceptibility testing for thermophilic campylobacters. Pathology 1997; 29: 209–16), whereas the MIC assay was performed according to CLSI (formerly NCCLS) methods and interpreted using DANMAP criteria. Results: In both assays, no C. jejuni or C. coli isolates were resistant to ciprofloxacin or chloramphenicol, no C. coli were resistant to nalidixic acid, and no C. jejuni were resistant to erythromycin. In the MIC assay, no C. jejuni isolate was resistant to nalidixic acid, whereas three isolates (2.4%) were resistant in the disc assay. The highest levels of resistance of the C. jejuni isolates were recorded for tetracycline (19.2% by MIC and 18.4% by disc) and ampicillin (19.2% by MIC and 17.6% by disc). The C. coli isolates gave very similar results (tetracycline resistance 14.8% by both MIC and disc; ampicillin resistance 7.4% by MIC and 14.8% by disc). Conclusions: This work has shown that the majority of C. jejuni and C. coli isolates were susceptible to the six antibiotics tested by both disc diffusion and MIC methods. Disc diffusion represents a suitable alternative methodology to agar-based MIC methods for poultry Campylobacter isolates.

Pasteurella multocida detection by 5' Taq nuclease assay: a new tool for use in diagnosing fowl cholera

A 5′ Taq nuclease assay utilising minor groove binder technology and targeting the 16S rRNA gene was designed to detect Pasteurella multocida (the causative agent of fowl cholera) in swabs collected from poultry. The assay was first evaluated using pure cultures. The assay correctly identified four P. multocida taxonomic type strains, 18 P. multocida serovar reference strains and 40 Australian field isolates (17 from poultry, 11 from pigs and 12 from cattle). Representatives of nine other Pasteurella species, 26 other bacterial species (18 being members of the family Pasteurellaceae) and four poultry virus isolates did not react in the assay. The assay detected a minimum of approximately 10 cfu of P. multocida per reaction. Of 79 poultry swabs submitted to the laboratory for routine bacteriological culture, 17 were positive in the 5′ Taq nuclease assay, but only 10 were positive by culture. The other 62 swabs were negative for P. multocida by both 5′ Taq nuclease assay and culture. The assay is suitable for use in diagnosing fowl cholera, is more rapid than bacteriological culture, and may also have application in diagnosing P. multocida infections in cattle and pigs.

Distributions of lesser mealworm (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) in litter of a compacted earth floor broiler house in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Distributions of lesser mealworm, Alphitobius diaperinus (Panzer) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), in litter of a compacted earth floor broiler house in southeastern Queensland, Australia, were studied over two flocks. Larvae were the predominant stage recorded. Significantly low densities occurred in open locations and under drinker cups where chickens had complete access, whereas high densities were found under feed pans and along house edges where chicken access was restricted. For each flock, lesser mealworm numbers increased at all locations over the first 14 d, especially under feed pans and along house edges, peaking at 26 d and then declining over the final 28 d. A life stage profile per flock was devised that consisted of the following: beetles emerge from the earth floor at the beginning of each flock, and females lay eggs, producing larvae that peak in numbers at 3 wk; after a further 3 to 4 wk, larvae leave litter to pupate in the earth floor, and beetles then emerge by the end of the flock time. Removing old litter from the brooder section at the end of a flock did not greatly reduce mealworm numbers over the subsequent flock, but it seemed to prevent numbers increasing, while an increase in numbers in the grow-out section was recorded after reusing litter. Areas under feed pans and along house edges accounted for 5% of the total house area, but approximately half the estimated total number of lesser mealworms in the broiler house occurred in these locations. The results of this study will be used to determine optimal deployment of site-specific treatments for lesser mealworm control.

Antibody response against endogenous stages of an attenuated strain of Eimeria tenella

The application of attenuated vaccines for the prevention of chicken coccidiosis has increased exponentially in recent years. In Eimeria infections, protective immunity is thought to rely on a strong cell mediated response with antibodies supposedly playing a minor role. However, under certain conditions antibodies seem to be significant in protection. Furthermore, antibodies could be useful for monitoring natural exposure of flocks to Eimeria spp. and for monitoring the infectivity of live vaccines. Our objective was to investigate the chicken antibody response to the different parasite lifecycle stages following infection with an attenuated strain of Eimeria tenella. Western blotting analysis of parasite antigens prepared from the lining of caeca infected with the attenuated strain of E. tenella revealed two dominant antigens of 32 and 34 kDa, apparently associated with trophozoites and merozoites that were present at high concentrations between 84 and 132 h post-infection. When cryosections of caeca infected with E. tenella were probed with IgY purified from immune birds the most intense reaction was observed with the asexual stages. Western blotting analysis of proteins of purified sporozoites and third generation merozoites and absorption of stage-specific antibodies from sera suggested that a large proportion of antigens is shared by the two stages. The time-courses of the antibody response to sporozoite and merozoite antigens were similar but varied depending on the inoculation regime and the degree of oocyst recirculation.

Evolutionary relationships between bat coronaviruses and their hosts

Recent studies have suggested that bats are the natural reservoir of a range of coronaviruses (CoVs), and that rhinolophid bats harbor viruses closely related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) CoV, which caused an outbreak of respiratory illness in humans during 2002-2003. We examined the evolutionary relationships between bat CoVs and their hosts by using sequence data of the virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene and the bat cytochrome b gene. Phylogenetic analyses showed multiple incongruent associations between the phylogenies of rhinolophid bats and their CoVs, which suggested that host shifts have occurred in the recent evolutionary history of this group. These shifts may be due to either virus biologic traits or host behavioral traits. This finding has implications for the emergence of SARS and for the potential future emergence of SARS-CoVs or related viruses.

Emerging Viruses: Coming in on a Wrinkled Wing and a Prayer

The role that bats have played in the emergence of several new infectious diseases has been under review. Bats have been identified as the reservoir hosts of newly emergent viruses such as Nipah virus, Hendra virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome–like coronaviruses. This article expands on recent findings about bats and viruses and their relevance to human infections. It briefly reviews the history of chiropteran viruses and discusses their emergence in the context of geography, phylogeny, and ecology. The public health and trade impacts of several outbreaks are also discussed. Finally, we attempt to predict where, when, and why we may see the emergence of new chiropteran viruses.