Nonlinear error dynamics for cycled data assimilation methods

We investigate the error dynamics for cycled data assimilation systems, such that the inverse problem of state determination is solved at tk, k = 1, 2, 3, ..., with a first guess given by the state propagated via a dynamical system model from time tk − 1 to time tk. In particular, for nonlinear dynamical systems that are Lipschitz continuous with respect to their initial states, we provide deterministic estimates for the development of the error ||ek|| := ||x(a)k − x(t)k|| between the estimated state x(a) and the true state x(t) over time. Clearly, observation error of size δ > 0 leads to an estimation error in every assimilation step. These errors can accumulate, if they are not (a) controlled in the reconstruction and (b) damped by the dynamical system under consideration. A data assimilation method is called stable, if the error in the estimate is bounded in time by some constant C. The key task of this work is to provide estimates for the error ||ek||, depending on the size δ of the observation error, the reconstruction operator Rα, the observation operator H and the Lipschitz constants K(1) and K(2) on the lower and higher modes of controlling the damping behaviour of the dynamics. We show that systems can be stabilized by choosing α sufficiently small, but the bound C will then depend on the data error δ in the form c||Rα||δ with some constant c. Since ||Rα|| → ∞ for α → 0, the constant might be large. Numerical examples for this behaviour in the nonlinear case are provided using a (low-dimensional) Lorenz '63 system.

Foliar salt tolerance of Acer genotypes using chlorophyll fluorescence

The effect of increasing salinity on a range of chlorophyll fluorescence parameters in foliar tissue of 30 Acer genotypes was examined. The magnitude of the fluorescence responses differed among genotypes ranging from minor effects to substantial leaf tissue damage. Interpretation of the fluorescence expressions provided an insight into mechanisms of salt damage and resilience among genotypes. Based on reductions in a performance index (PIp) following salinity, genotypes were ranked in order from tolerant to sensitive. Based on this ranking criterion, marked differences in salt tolerance among genotypes were distinguished. It is concluded that chlorophyll fluorescence offers a rapid screening technique for assessing the foliar salinity tolerance of urban trees.

Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM

Synoptic activity over the Northern Hemisphere is evaluated in ensembles of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 simulations for recent climate conditions (20C) and for three climate scenarios (following SRES A1B, A2, B1). A close agreement is found between the simulations for present day climate and the respective results from reanalysis. Significant changes in the winter mid-tropospheric storm tracks are detected in all three scenario simulations. Ensemble mean climate signals are rather similar, with particularly large activity increases downstream of the Atlantic storm track over Western Europe. The magnitude of this signal is largely dependent on the imposed change in forcing. However, differences between individual ensemble members may be large. With respect to the surface cyclones, the scenario runs produce a reduction in cyclonic track density over the mid-latitudes, even in the areas with increasing mid-tropospheric activity. The largest decrease in track densities occurs at subtropical latitudes, e.g., over the Mediterranean Basin. An increase of cyclone intensities is detected for limited areas (e.g., near Great Britain and Aleutian Isles) for the A1B and A2 experiments. The changes in synoptic activity are associated with alterations of the Northern Hemisphere circulation and background conditions (blocking frequencies, jet stream). The North Atlantic Oscillation index also shows increased values with enhanced forcing. With respect to the effects of changing synoptic activity, the regional change in cyclone intensities is accompanied by alterations of the extreme surface winds, with increasing values over Great Britain, North and Baltic Seas, as well as the areas with vanishing sea ice, and decreases over much of the subtropics.

Spiral jetty, thirty seven years later: the cinematic time of James Benning

This article considers cinematic time in James Benning’s film, casting a glance (2007), in relation to its subject, Robert Smithson’s 1970 earthwork Spiral Jetty, and his film of the same name. The radicalism of Smithson’s thinking on time has been widely acknowledged, and his influence continues to pervade contemporary artistic practice. The relationship of Benning’s films with this legacy may appear somewhat oblique, given their apparent phenomenological rendition of ‘real time’. However, closer examination of Benning’s formal strategies reveals a more complex temporal construction, characterized by uncertain intervals that interrupt the folding of cinematic time into the flow of consciousness. Smithson’s film uses cinematic analogy to gesture towards vast reaches of geological time; Benning’s film creates a simulated timescale to evoke the short history of the earthwork itself. Smithson’s embrace of the entropic was a counter-cultural stance at the end of the1960s, but under the shadow of ecological disaster, this orientation has come to appear melancholy and romantic rather than radical. Benning’s film returns the jetty to anthropic time, but raises questions about the ways we inhabit time. His practice of working with ‘borrowed time’ is particularly suited to the cultural and historical moment of his later work.

Does the PMSP connectionist model of single word reading learn to read in the same way as a child?

The Plaut, McClelland, Seidenberg and Patterson (1996) connectionist model of reading was evaluated at two points early in its training against reading data collected from British children on two occasions during their first year of literacy instruction. First, the network’s non-word reading was poor relative to word reading when compared with the children. Second, the network made more non-lexical than lexical errors, the opposite pattern to the children. Three adaptations were made to the training of the network to bring it closer to the learning environment of a child: an incremental training regime was adopted; the network was trained on grapheme– phoneme correspondences; and a training corpus based on words found in children’s early reading materials was used. The modifications caused a sharp improvement in non-word reading, relative to word reading, resulting in a near perfect match to the children’s data on this measure. The modified network, however, continued to make predominantly non-lexical errors, although evidence from a small-scale implementation of the full triangle framework suggests that this limitation stems from the lack of a semantic pathway. Taken together, these results suggest that, when properly trained, connectionist models of word reading can offer insights into key aspects of reading development in children.

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

Lattice dynamics study of microstructures of electrorheological fluids

The lattice dynamics method is used to study the stability of the chain structures formed in electrorheological (ER) fluids. The appearance of the soft modes in the phonon dispersion of the structures indicates that the chains tend to distort and aggregate into thicker columns due to the electrostatic attractive forces and thermal generated forces between them. The results show that the stability of the chains relies on their width and the separation between them. The complete chain structures are more stable than the chains with defects. The results can be used to elucidate the densification phenomenon of the chains in the structuring process of ER fluids in the quiescent state.

Parent-reported gastro-intestinal symptoms in children with autism spectrum disorders

The objective of this study is to investigate whether parentally-reported gastro-intestinal (GI) symptoms are increased in a population-derived sample of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) compared to controls. Participants included 132 children with ASD and 81 with special educational needs (SEN) but no ASD, aged 10-14 years plus 82 typically developing (TD) children. Data were collected on GI symptoms, diet, cognitive abilities, and developmental histories. Nearly half (weighted rate 46.5 %) of children with ASD had at least one individual lifetime GI symptom compared with 21.8 % of TD children and 29.2 % of those with SEN. Children with ASD had more past and current GI symptoms than TD or SEN groups although fewer current symptoms were reported in all groups compared with the past. The ASD group had significantly increased past vomiting and diarrhoea compared with the TD group and more abdominal pain than the SEN group. The ASD group had more current constipation (when defined as bowel movement less than three times per week) and soiling than either the TD or SEN groups. No association was found between GI symptoms and intellectual ability, ASD severity, ASD regression or limited or faddy diet. Parents report more GI symptoms in children with ASD than children with either SEN or TD children but the frequency of reported symptoms is greater in the past than currently in all groups.

No asylum for “Infiltrators”: the legal predicament of Eritrean and Sudanese nationals in Israel

This article explores the precarious status of Eritrean and Sudanese nationals in Israel. Having crossed the Israeli-Egyptian border without authorisation and not through an official border crossing, Israeli law defines such individuals as ‘infiltrators’, a charged term which dates back to border-crossings into Israel by Palestinian Fedayeen in the 1950s. Eritreans and Sudanese nationals constitute over 90 percent of ‘infiltrators’ in Israel. Their livelihood is curtailed through hostility, sanctions, and detention, while (at the time of writing) Israel refrains from deporting them to their respective countries of origin, recognising that such forced removal could expose them to risks to their lives and/or freedom. Israel was the 10th state to ratify the 1951 Refugee Convention, and has acceded to its 1967 Protocol which removed the 1951 Convention’s temporal and geographic restrictions, yet it has not incorporated these treaties into its domestic law not has it enacted primary legislation that sets eligibility criteria for ‘refugee’ status and regulates the treatment of asylum-seekers. Israeli law also fails to accord subsidiary protection status to persons that the state considers to be non-removable, whether or not they satisfy the definition of a ‘refugee’ under the 1951 Convention. Absent legal recognition of ‘refugee’, ‘asylum-seeker’, and ‘beneficiary of subsidiary protection’ statuses, Eritreans and Sudanese nationals are left in legal limbo for an indefinite period qua irregular non-removable persons. This article takes stock of their legal predicament.

Three decades of policy layering and politically sustainable reform in the European Union’s Agricultural Policy

The study of policy reform has tended to focus on single-stage reforms taking place over a relatively short period. Recent research has drawn attention to gradual policy changes unfolding over extended periods. One strategy of gradual change is layering, in which new policy dimensions are introduced by adding new policy instruments or by redesigning existing ones to address new concerns. The limited research on single-stage policy reforms highlights that these may not endure in the postenactment phase when circumstances change. We argue that gradual policy layering may create sustainability dynamics that can result in lasting reform trajectories. The European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has changed substantially over the last three decades in response to emerging policy concerns by adding new layers. This succession of reforms proved durable and resilient to reversal in the lead-up to the 2013 CAP reform when institutional and political circumstances changed.

Clouds and the atmospheric circulation response to warming

We study the effect of clouds on the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 quadrupling in an aquaplanet model with a slab-ocean lower boundary. The cloud effect is isolated by locking the clouds to either the control or 4xCO2 state in the shortwave (SW) or longwave (LW) radiation schemes. In our model, cloud-radiative changes explain more than half of the total poleward expansion of the Hadley cells, midlatitude jets, and storm tracks under CO2 quadrupling, even though they cause only one-fourth of the total global-mean surface warming. The effect of clouds on circulation results mainly from the SW cloud-radiative changes, which strongly enhance the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient at all levels in the troposphere, favoring stronger and poleward-shifted midlatitude eddies. By contrast, quadrupling CO2 while holding the clouds fixed causes strong polar amplification and weakened midlatitude baroclinicity at lower levels, yielding only a small poleward expansion of the circulation. Our results show that (a) the atmospheric circulation responds sensitively to cloud-driven changes in meridional and vertical temperature distribution, and (b) the spatial structure of cloud feedbacks likely plays a dominant role in the circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing. While the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud feedback are expected to be highly model-dependent, an analysis of 4xCO2 simulations of CMIP5 models shows that the SW cloud feedback likely forces a poleward expansion of the tropospheric circulation in most climate models.

On the importance of Vaisala RS92 radiosonde humidity corrections for a better agreement between measured and modeled satellite radiances

A study has been carried out to assess the importance of radiosonde corrections in improving the agreement between satellite and radiosonde measurements of upper-tropospheric humidity. Infrared [High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS)-12] and microwave [Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)-18] measurements from the NOAA-17 satellite were used for this purpose. The agreement was assessed by comparing the satellite measurements against simulated measurements using collocated radiosonde profiles of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program undertaken at tropical and midlatitude sites. The Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) was used to simulate the satellite radiances. The comparisons have been done under clear-sky conditions, separately for daytime and nighttime soundings. Only Vaisala RS92 radiosonde sensors were used and an empirical correction (EC) was applied to the radiosonde measurements. The EC includes correction for mean calibration bias and for solar radiation error, and it removes radiosonde bias relative to three instruments of known accuracy. For the nighttime dataset, the EC significantly reduces the bias from 0.63 to 20.10 K in AMSU-18 and from 1.26 to 0.35 K in HIRS-12. The EC has an even greater impact on the daytime dataset with a bias reduction from 2.38 to 0.28 K in AMSU-18 and from 2.51 to 0.59 K in HIRS-12. The present study promises a more accurate approach in future radiosonde-based studies in the upper troposphere.

Cardiac myocyte gene expression profiling during H2O2-induced apoptosis

High levels of oxidative stress promote cardiac myocyte death, though lower levels are potentially cytoprotective/anabolic. We examined the changes in gene expression in rat neonatal cardiac myocytes exposed to apoptotic (0.2 mM) or nontoxic (0.04 mM) concentrations of H2O2 (2, 4, or 24 h) using Affymetrix microarrays. Using U34B arrays, we identified a ubiquitously expressed, novel H2O2-responsive gene [putative peroxide-inducible transcript 1 (Perit1)], which generates two alternatively spliced transcripts. Using 230 2.0 arrays, H2O2 (0.04 mM) promoted significant changes in expression of only 32 genes, all of which were seen with 0.2 mM H2O2. We failed to detect any increase in the rate of protein synthesis in cardiac myocytes exposed to <0.1 mM H2O2, further suggesting that global, low concentrations of H2O2 are not anabolic in this system. H2O2 (0.2 mM) promoted significant (P < 0.05, >1.75-fold) changes in expression of 649 mRNAs and 187 RNAs corresponding to no established gene. Of the mRNAs, 114 encoded transcriptional regulators including Krüppel-like factors (Klfs). Quantitative PCR independently verified the changes in Klf expression. Thus, H2O2-induced cardiac myocyte apoptosis is associated with dynamic changes in gene expression. The expression of these genes and their protein products potentially influences the progression of the apoptotic response.

Climatology of polar lows over the Sea of Japan using the JRA-55 reanalysis

Polar lows are intense meso- a -scale cyclones that develop over the oceans poleward of the main baroclinic zone. A number of previous studies have reported polar low formation over the Sea of Japan within the East Asian winter monsoon. To understand the climatology of polar lows over the Sea of Japan, a tracking al- gorithm for polar lows is applied to the recent JRA-55 reanalysis. The polar low tracking is applied to 36 cold seasons (October–March) from October 1979 to March 2015. The polar lows over the Sea of Japan reach their maximum intensity on the southeastern side of the midline between the Japanese islands and the Asian continent. Consistent with previous case studies, composite analysis demonstrates that the polar low devel- opment is associated with the enhanced northerly flow on the western side of a synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone, with the cold trough in the midtroposphere and with increased heat fluxes from the sea surface. Furthermore, the present climatological study has revealed two dominant directions of motion of the polar lows: southward and eastward. Southward-moving polar lows are steered by a strong northerly flow in the lower troposphere, which is enhanced on the western side of synoptic-scale extratropical cyclones, while the eastward-moving polar lows occur within a planetary-scale westerly flow in the midlatitudes. Thus, the di- rection of polar low motion reflects the difference in planetary- and synoptic-scale conditions.