Tobacco use prevention education (TUPE) programs in the state of Florida: Teachers' perceptions of program structure and effectiveness

This study described teacher perceptions of TUPE program effectiveness in Florida in an attempt to improve programs by identifying factors that might influence teacher motivation and performance. Very little work has been done to examine how teachers' perceptions are related to the effectiveness of TUPE programs. A statewide survey provided information about how teachers' perceptions of program effectiveness are affected by variables such as: program structure, barriers, tobacco use norms, and training variables. Data were obtained from a telephone survey conducted in Florida as part of the Tobacco Pilot Project (TPP). The sample included 296 middle school teachers and 282 high school teachers as well as 193 middle school principals and 190 high school principals. Correlational and hierarchical regression analyses identified correlates and predictors of teachers' ratings of effectiveness. Results suggest that use of peer leaders, more frequent evaluations, a higher degree of parent involvement, fewer barriers, greater student interest, and lower tolerance for tobacco use were correlated with higher ratings of program effectiveness. Furthermore, student interest, peer, staff, and community tolerance norms, peer leaders, program evaluation, and parent involvement predicted middle school teachers' perceptions. Parent tolerance, student interest, number of barriers, and more frequent program evaluation predicted high school teachers' perceptions. In addition, middle school teachers who reported a lower number of factors negatively associated with teacher receptivity were more likely to view TUPE programs more favorably than teachers who reported a greater number of these risk factors. This relationship was not as robust among the high school teacher sample. Differences between the middle and high school sample were found in the magnitude and number of significant correlations, the proportion of variance accounted for by predictor variables, and the strength of the relationship between the number of factors negatively associated with teacher receptivity and teachers' perceptions of TUPE effectiveness. These findings highlighted the importance of the timing, program features, and the external environment for enhancing or minimizing teachers' ratings of TUPE program effectiveness. In conclusion, significant increases in TUPE teachers' self-efficacy will occur through the participation of peers, parents, staff, and community leaders in different aspects of TUPE programs. ^

Voices at the shore: Ethnolinguistic identity among adolescent Haitian students

Newly immigrated Haitian adolescent students enrolled in the Miami-Dade Public School System and designated as Limited English Proficient (LEP) face many challenges as they adjust to new expectations for performance and success in the family, school, and community. The dissertation examines the emerging self-identities of 32 Haitian LEP students attempting to fit in and succeed within the classrooms and larger community of Miami. Research questions asked include (1) What models for self-identity, including education and careers, are postulated for young Haitians? (2) What are the discourses and cultural models through which these identities are expressed? (3) How does the school assign identities to Haitian students? (4) How do the notions of identities conflict? and (5) How do emergent identities affect the students, orientations, adaptation, and performance in the worlds of secondary and higher education? ^ Research was conducted longitudinally over a three-year period (1996–1999) within the Miami-Dade Public School System and within the Miami Haitian community. Research methods included ethnographic research (participant and nonparticipant observation); interview; collection of oral histories; focus groups; and the examination of school records (grades, attendance, test scores). ^ The findings suggest that despite pressures from school and peers many Haitian students maintain a strong ethnolinguistic identity that provides the means to maintain an ideal “student” identity even as it conflicts with the American school Is negative marking of the LEP students I social background, culture, and language. The label “limited proficient” also limits the Haitian students' access to strong remedial or advanced academic programs and hence to future opportunities. ^ In conclusion, it is recommended that a re-working of the ways Haitian immigrant students are identified, tested, counseled, and advanced to other academic programs is necessary. ^

On the fundamentals of research and development (R&D) spillovers in competitive markets

Rivals may voluntarily share Research and Development (R&D) results even in the absence of any binding agreements or collusion. In a model where rival firms engage in non-cooperative independent R&D process, we used optimization and game theory analysis to study the equilibrium strategy of the firms. Our work showed that, while minimal spillover is always equilibrium, there may be another equilibrium where firms may reciprocally choose high, sometimes perfect, spillover rates. The incentive for sharing R&D output is based on firms' expectations of learning from their rivals' R&D progress in the future. This leads to strategic complementarities between the firms' choices of spillover rates and thus policy implication follows. ^ Public research agencies can contribute more to social welfare by providing research as public goods. In a non-cooperative public-private research relationship where parallel R&D is conducted, by making its R&D results accessible, the public research agency can stimulate private spillovers, even if there exists rivalry among the private firms who can benefit from such spillovers. ^

Living positive: Life in community among Puerto Rican men living with HIV in Boston

Negative experiences of stigmatization, discrimination, and rejection are common among people living with HIV in the United States, and particularly when they are also members of a minority group. Some three decades after the first cases of AIDS were identified, people infected with HIV continue to be perceived and characterized negatively. While an HIV/AIDS diagnosis is typically associated with negativity, this study investigates the extent to which collective experiences among HIV-positive people result in healthy responses and positive social adjustment. This study is focused on the ways in which HIV-positive Puerto Rican men in Boston live positive despite being diagnosed with HIV. Rather than wrapping themselves in the social stigma of HIV and the isolation that entails, they participate in processes that affirm themselves and their peers. In so doing, they help generate both healthy and meaningful lives for themselves and others. The study examines the process in which Puerto Rican men living with HIV in Boston participate, promote, and reaffirm an HIV community, la comunidad, as a social entity with a unique culture and identity. This study also investigates how this community influences, supports, and encourages the adoption of positive transformations for living long term with HIV. On the basis of nine months of field research, this qualitative study employed both focus groups and interviews with fifty HIV-positive Puerto Rican men in Boston. These men were recruited, using convenience sampling, from different community-based organizations (CBOs) that provide HIV/AIDS services in Boston. The study finds that HIV-positive Puerto Rican men in Boston build community, not in response to social exclusion, but built on shared positive practices and strategies for living healthy with HIV. These men come together to negotiate and form a unique cultural community expressed in norms, beliefs, and practices that, although centered on HIV, are designed for living healthy. These expressions reaffirm a sense of community in everyday settings and transform the lives of these men with positive behaviors and healthy lifestyles. The findings reveal that this transformation takes place in the context of a community, with the support, encouragement, and at times, policing of others. La comunidad is where the lives of these men are transformed as they learn, adopt, and experience living positive with HIV.

Chlorine contribution to quantitative structure and activity relationship models of disinfection by -products' quantum chemical descriptors and toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: (1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (E LUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; (2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; (3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl ) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: (1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); (2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and (3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: (1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; (2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; (3) E LUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and (4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.

Social Capital and International Migration from Latin America

We combine data from the Latin American Migration Project and the Mexican Migration Project to estimate models predicting the likelihood of taking of first and later trips to the United States from five nations: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Peru. The models test specific hypotheses about the effects of social capital on international migration and how these effects vary with respect to contextual factors. Our findings confirm the ubiquity of migrant networks and the universality of social capital effects throughout Latin America. They also reveal how the sizes of these effects are not uniform across settings. Social capital operates more powerfully on first as opposed to later trips and interacts with the cost of migration. In addition, effects are somewhat different when considering individual social capital (measuring strong ties) and community social capital (measuring weak ties). On first trips, the effect of strong ties in promoting migration increases with distance whereas the effect of weak ties decreases with distance. On later trips, the direction of effects for both individual and community social capital is negative for long distances but positive for short distances.

Consolidating Security and Development in Colombia: Lessons for Peru and Panama

Colombia's increasingly effective efforts to mitigate the power of the FARC and other illegitimately armed groups in the country can offer important lessons for the Peruvian government as it strives to prevent a resurgence of Sendero Luminoso and other illegal non-state actors. Both countries share certain particular challenges: deep economic, social, and in the case of Peru ethnic divisions, the presence of and/or the effects of violent insurgencies, a large-scale narcotics production and trafficking, and a history of weak state presence in large tracts of isolated and scarcely-populated areas. Important differences exist, however in the nature of the insurgencies in the two countries, the government response to them and the nature of government and society that affects the applicability of Colombia's experience to Peru. The security threat to Panama from drug trafficking and Colombian insurgents --often a linked phenomenon-- are in many ways different from the drug/insurgent factor in Colombia itself and in Peru, although there are similar variables. Unlike the Colombian and Peruvian cases, the security threat in Panama is not directed against the state, there are no domestic elements seeking to overthrow the government -- as the case of the FARC and Sendero Luminoso, security problems have not spilled over from rural to urban areas in Panama, and there is no ideological component at play in driving the threat. Nor is drug cultivation a major factor in Panama as it is in Colombia and Peru. The key variable that is shared among all three cases is the threat of extra-state actors controlling remote rural areas or small towns where state presence is minimal. The central lesson learned from Colombia is the need to define and then address the key problem of a "sovereignity gap," lack of legitimate state presence in many part of the country. Colombia's success in broadening the presence of the national government between 2002 and the presence is owed to many factors, including an effective national strategy, improvements in the armed forces and police, political will on the part of government for a sustained effort, citizen buy-in to the national strategy, including the resolve of the elite to pay more in taxes to bring change about, and the adoption of a sequenced approach to consolidated development in conflicted areas. Control of territory and effective state presence improved citizen security, strengthened confidence in democracy and the legitimate state, promoted economic development, and helped mitigate the effect of illegal drugs. Peru can benefit from the Colombian experience especially in terms of the importance of legitimate state authority, improved institutions, gaining the support of local citizens, and furthering development to wean communities away from drugs. State coordinated "integration" efforts in Peru as practiced in Colombia have the potential for success if properly calibrated to Peruvian reality, coordinated within government, and provided with sufficient resources. Peru's traditionally weak political institutions and lack of public confidence in the state in many areas of the country must be overcome if this effort is to be successful.

Monitoring of Tree Island Condition in the Southern Everglades: Hydrologic Driven Decadal Changes in Tree Island Woody Vegetation Structure and Composition: 2012 Annual Report

This report examines the interaction between hydrology and vegetation over a 10-year period, between 2001/02 and 2012 within six permanent tree island plots located on three tree islands, two plots each per tree island, established in 2001/02, along a hydrologic and productivity gradient. We hypothesize that: (H1) hydrologic differences within plots between census dates will result in marked differences in a) tree and sapling densities, b) tree basal area, and c) forest structure, i.e., canopy volume and height, and (H2) tree island growth, development, and succession is dependent on hydrologic fluxes, particularly during periods of prolonged droughts or below average hydroperiods.

Social institutions and identity formation : the interface between society and the individual

This thesis describes a study conducted to develop and refine a measure, the Social Institutions Rating (SIR), a group administered, self-report measure of institutional attributes and characteristics. This thesis reports data on the psychometric properties of the SIR. Exploratory analyses are reported investigating the empirical effects of social institutions on identity formation within two ethnic/cultural groups, Euroamericans and Hispanics. Based on previous studies with ethnic minorities, a directional hypothesis was tested. The hypothesis that subjects in the Euroamerican sample have a higher identity status than the Hispanic sample for three identity domains (personal, interpersonal, and world view) was not confirmed. The hypothesis that subjects in the Euroamerican sample would score higher on identity satisfaction and lower on identity dissatisfaction than the Hispanic sample for nine content areas of identity was partially supported but in the opposite direction. Hispanics reported higher satisfaction on sense of self and religious issues than Euroamericans.

Empowerment, social support, and self-esteem of parents involved in an elementary school program

Parent involvement (PI) in schooling has consistently been correlated with improved academic achievement in children. However, despite the apparent benefits of parent involvement, many schools serving low-income communities report consistent difficulty in facilitating the involvement of parents in their children's schooling. The purpose of this exploratory pilot study was to examine key variables associated with a PI program at a school that served a low-income community. The program was selected because it sustained the involvement of parents for a prolonged period of time. It was also selected because the program was facilitated by social workers. Derived from the literature, four lines of inquiry were examined: (a) the relationship between PI and parent strengths and development; (b) the relationship between PI and children's academic achievement; (c) facilitators for PI; and (d) barriers to PI. These lines of inquiry yielded the study's four primary research questions. The study employed a cross-sectional research design to address them. Thirty-three parents, representing 16 school-involved (SI) parents and 17 nonschool involved (NSI) parents, served as study participants. All 33 parents resided in a high poverty community. Quantitative methods were selected to examine differences between study participants and PI. Measures of parental empowerment, social support, self-esteem, and direct and indirect measures of their children's academic achievement were utilized. Qualitative methods were developed to identify and describe SI and NSI parents' perceptions of facilitators for and barriers to PI. This study's findings suggest that PI may yield important benefits for SI parents. These benefits include parents' perceptions of their empowerment, social support, and self-esteem. This study's findings also suggest a relationship between PI and reduced rates of children's school suspensions. This study did not, however, support relationships between PI and children's standardized test scores. This study concludes that despite the apparent benefits of PI for SI parents, PI may nonetheless be a proxy for several unspecified interventions that effect parents, children, schools and communities alike. More precise specifications and robust measures of PI are needed.

Spatially explicit estimates of stock size, structure and biomass of North Atlantic albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) in the North Atlantic for the period 1956-2010, compiled from the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas

The development of the ecosystem approach and models for the management of ocean marine resources requires easy access to standard validated datasets of historical catch data for the main exploited species. They are used to measure the impact of biomass removal by fisheries and to evaluate the models skills, while the use of standard dataset facilitates models inter-comparison. North Atlantic albacore tuna is exploited all year round by longline and in summer and autumn by surface fisheries and fishery statistics compiled by the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT). Catch and effort with geographical coordinates at monthly spatial resolution of 1° or 5° squares were extracted for this species with a careful definition of fisheries and data screening. In total, thirteen fisheries were defined for the period 1956-2010, with fishing gears longline, troll, mid-water trawl and bait fishing. However, the spatialized catch effort data available in ICCAT database represent a fraction of the entire total catch. Length frequencies of catch were also extracted according to the definition of fisheries above for the period 1956-2010 with a quarterly temporal resolution and spatial resolutions varying from 1°x 1° to 10°x 20°. The resolution used to measure the fish also varies with size-bins of 1, 2 or 5 cm (Fork Length). The screening of data allowed detecting inconsistencies with a relatively large number of samples larger than 150 cm while all studies on the growth of albacore suggest that fish rarely grow up over 130 cm. Therefore, a threshold value of 130 cm has been arbitrarily fixed and all length frequency data above this value removed from the original data set.

Identifying the Structure and Fate of Wastewater Derived Organic Micropollutants by High-resolution Mass Spectrometry

Human activities represent a significant burden on the global water cycle, with large and increasing demands placed on limited water resources by manufacturing, energy production and domestic water use. In addition to changing the quantity of available water resources, human activities lead to changes in water quality by introducing a large and often poorly-characterized array of chemical pollutants, which may negatively impact biodiversity in aquatic ecosystems, leading to impairment of valuable ecosystem functions and services. Domestic and industrial wastewaters represent a significant source of pollution to the aquatic environment due to inadequate or incomplete removal of chemicals introduced into waters by human activities. Currently, incomplete chemical characterization of treated wastewaters limits comprehensive risk assessment of this ubiquitous impact to water. In particular, a significant fraction of the organic chemical composition of treated industrial and domestic wastewaters remains uncharacterized at the molecular level. Efforts aimed at reducing the impacts of water pollution on aquatic ecosystems critically require knowledge of the composition of wastewaters to develop interventions capable of protecting our precious natural water resources.

The goal of this dissertation was to develop a robust, extensible and high-throughput framework for the comprehensive characterization of organic micropollutants in wastewaters by high-resolution accurate-mass mass spectrometry. High-resolution mass spectrometry provides the most powerful analytical technique available for assessing the occurrence and fate of organic pollutants in the water cycle. However, significant limitations in data processing, analysis and interpretation have limited this technique in achieving comprehensive characterization of organic pollutants occurring in natural and built environments. My work aimed to address these challenges by development of automated workflows for the structural characterization of organic pollutants in wastewater and wastewater impacted environments by high-resolution mass spectrometry, and to apply these methods in combination with novel data handling routines to conduct detailed fate studies of wastewater-derived organic micropollutants in the aquatic environment.

In Chapter 2, chemoinformatic tools were implemented along with novel non-targeted mass spectrometric analytical methods to characterize, map, and explore an environmentally-relevant “chemical space” in municipal wastewater. This was accomplished by characterizing the molecular composition of known wastewater-derived organic pollutants and substances that are prioritized as potential wastewater contaminants, using these databases to evaluate the pollutant-likeness of structures postulated for unknown organic compounds that I detected in wastewater extracts using high-resolution mass spectrometry approaches. Results showed that application of multiple computational mass spectrometric tools to structural elucidation of unknown organic pollutants arising in wastewaters improved the efficiency and veracity of screening approaches based on high-resolution mass spectrometry. Furthermore, structural similarity searching was essential for prioritizing substances sharing structural features with known organic pollutants or industrial and consumer chemicals that could enter the environment through use or disposal.

I then applied this comprehensive methodological and computational non-targeted analysis workflow to micropollutant fate analysis in domestic wastewaters (Chapter 3), surface waters impacted by water reuse activities (Chapter 4) and effluents of wastewater treatment facilities receiving wastewater from oil and gas extraction activities (Chapter 5). In Chapter 3, I showed that application of chemometric tools aided in the prioritization of non-targeted compounds arising at various stages of conventional wastewater treatment by partitioning high dimensional data into rational chemical categories based on knowledge of organic chemical fate processes, resulting in the classification of organic micropollutants based on their occurrence and/or removal during treatment. Similarly, in Chapter 4, high-resolution sampling and broad-spectrum targeted and non-targeted chemical analysis were applied to assess the occurrence and fate of organic micropollutants in a water reuse application, wherein reclaimed wastewater was applied for irrigation of turf grass. Results showed that organic micropollutant composition of surface waters receiving runoff from wastewater irrigated areas appeared to be minimally impacted by wastewater-derived organic micropollutants. Finally, Chapter 5 presents results of the comprehensive organic chemical composition of oil and gas wastewaters treated for surface water discharge. Concurrent analysis of effluent samples by complementary, broad-spectrum analytical techniques, revealed that low-levels of hydrophobic organic contaminants, but elevated concentrations of polymeric surfactants, which may effect the fate and analysis of contaminants of concern in oil and gas wastewaters.

Taken together, my work represents significant progress in the characterization of polar organic chemical pollutants associated with wastewater-impacted environments by high-resolution mass spectrometry. Application of these comprehensive methods to examine micropollutant fate processes in wastewater treatment systems, water reuse environments, and water applications in oil/gas exploration yielded new insights into the factors that influence transport, transformation, and persistence of organic micropollutants in these systems across an unprecedented breadth of chemical space.

China in Global Value Chains: Implications for Industrial Policy and Development

Rapid technological advances and liberal trade regimes permit functional reintegration of dispersed activities into new border-spanning business networks variously referred to as global value chains (GVCs). Given that the gains of a country from GVCs depend on the activities taking place in its jurisdiction and their linkages to global markets, this study starts by providing a descriptive overview of China’s economic structure and trade profile. The first two chapters of this paper demonstrate what significant role GVCs have played in China’s economic growth, evident in enhanced productivity, diversification, and sophistication of China’s exports, and how these economic benefits have propelled China’s emergence as the world’s manufacturing hub in the past two decades. However, benefits from GVC participation – in particular technological learning, knowledge building, and industrial upgrading – are not automatic. What strategies would help Chinese industries engage with GVCs in ways that are deemed sustainable in the long run? What challenges and related opportunities China would face throughout the implementation process? The last two chapters of this paper focus on implications of GVCs for China’s industrial policy and development. Chapter Three examines how China is reorienting its manufacturing sector toward the production of higher value-added goods and expanding its service sector, both domestically and internationally; while Chapter Four provides illustrative policy recommendations on dealing with the positive and negative outcomes triggered by GVCs, within China and beyond the country’s borders. To the end, this study also hopes to shed some light on the lessons and complexities that arise from GVC participation for other developing countries.

Social paranoia and absurdist fiction in Cold War America and Soviet Russia: a comparative study

This thesis explores the theme of social paranoia as depicted in the Absurdist fiction of Cold War America and Soviet Russia. The central hypothesis informing this research maintains that, despite the ideology of moral and cultural “Otherness” constructed and reinforced by both nations throughout much of twentieth century, the US and the Soviet Union more often than not functioned as mirror images of paranoia and suspicion. Much of the fiction produced in Russia from the Revolution onwards and in the US during the Cold War period highlights how these two ostensibly irreconcilable nations were consumed by similar fears and gripped by an equally pervasive paranoia. These parallel conditions of anxiety and mistrust led to a surprising congruity of literary responses, which transcended the ideological divide between capitalism and communism and, as such, underscored the homogeny of fear which lay beneath the façade of constructed difference. I contend that, because Soviet Russia and the America of the Cold War period were nations consumed by fear and suspicion, authors living in both countries became preoccupied by the mechanics of such deeply paranoid societies. Consequently, much of the fiction of the US and the Soviet Union during this period was preoccupied with the themes of paranoia, conspiracy, intensive bureaucracy and the politicisation of science, which resulted in the terror of the Nuclear Age. This thesis explores how these central themes unite apparently diverse literary texts and illustrate the uniformity of terror which transcended both the physical and ideological boundaries separating the United States and the Soviet Union. In doing so, this research focuses primarily on the multi-faceted manifestations of paranoia in selected works by Soviet authors Mikhail Bulgakov, Daniil Kharms and Yuli Daniel, and American authors Joseph Heller, Thomas Pynchon and Kurt Vonnegut. Focusing on key works by each author, this research considers these texts as products of two culturally diverse, yet equally paranoid societies and explores their preoccupation with issues of spying, infiltration and conspiracy. This thesis thus emphasises how these authors counter simplistic notions of Cold War Otherness by revealing two nations possessed by a similar sense of vulnerability and insecurity. Furthermore, this thesis examines how this social anxiety is reinforced by the way in which these authors position issues such as the mechanics of the bureaucratic system and clandestine scientific experimentation as the focal point of the paranoid imagination. Ultimately, by examining the concordance of paranoiac representation in America and the Soviet Union during this period, I demonstrate that these ostensibly divergent nations harboured similar fears and insecurities.

Chlorine Contribution to Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship Models of Disinfection By-Products' Quantum Chemical Descriptors and Toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: 1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (ELUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; 2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; 3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: 1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); 2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and 3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: 1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; 2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; 3) ELUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and 4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.