Investigation of Fundamental Processes Governing Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation in Laboratory Chambers

Our understanding of the processes and mechanisms by which secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is formed is derived from laboratory chamber studies. In the atmosphere, SOA formation is primarily driven by progressive photooxidation of SOA precursors, coupled with their gas-particle partitioning. In the chamber environment, SOA-forming vapors undergo multiple chemical and physical processes that involve production and removal via gas-phase reactions; partitioning onto suspended particles vs. particles deposited on the chamber wall; and direct deposition on the chamber wall. The main focus of this dissertation is to characterize the interactions of organic vapors with suspended particles and the chamber wall and explore how these intertwined processes in laboratory chambers govern SOA formation and evolution.

A Functional Group Oxidation Model (FGOM) that represents SOA formation and evolution in terms of the competition between functionalization and fragmentation, the extent of oxygen atom addition, and the change of volatility, is developed. The FGOM contains a set of parameters that are to be determined by fitting of the model to laboratory chamber data. The sensitivity of the model prediction to variation of the adjustable parameters allows one to assess the relative importance of various pathways involved in SOA formation.

A critical aspect of the environmental chamber is the presence of the wall, which can induce deposition of SOA-forming vapors and promote heterogeneous reactions. An experimental protocol and model framework are first developed to constrain the vapor-wall interactions. By optimal fitting the model predictions to the observed wall-induced decay profiles of 25 oxidized organic compounds, the dominant parameter governing the extent of wall deposition of a compound is identified, i.e., wall accommodation coefficient. By correlating this parameter with the molecular properties of a compound via its volatility, the wall-induced deposition rate of an organic compound can be predicted based on its carbon and oxygen numbers in the molecule.

Heterogeneous transformation of δ-hydroxycarbonyl, a major first-generation product from long-chain alkane photochemistry, is observed on the surface of particles and walls. The uniqueness of this reaction scheme is the production of substituted dihydrofuran, which is highly reactive towards ozone, OH, and NO3, thereby opening a reaction pathway that is not usually accessible to alkanes. A spectrum of highly-oxygenated products with carboxylic acid, ester, and ether functional groups is produced from the substituted dihydrofuran chemistry, thereby affecting the average oxidation state of the alkane-derived SOA.

The vapor wall loss correction is applied to several chamber-derived SOA systems generated from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources. Experimental and modeling approaches are employed to constrain the partitioning behavior of SOA-forming vapors onto suspended particles vs. chamber walls. It is demonstrated that deposition of SOA-forming vapors to the chamber wall during photooxidation experiments can lead to substantial and systematic underestimation of SOA. Therefore, it is likely that a lack of proper accounting for vapor wall losses that suppress chamber-derived SOA yields contribute substantially to the underprediction of ambient SOA concentrations in atmospheric models.

O Protocolo de Kyoto e o mercado de crédito de carbono: estudo de caso das emissões de gases de efeito estufa da fábrica de combustível nuclear pertencente às Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil no ano de 2008

A presente dissertação discute as questões relacionadas à intensificação das mudanças climáticas por causas antrópicas conforme a evolução no uso dos recursos naturais, inovações nos processos produtivos, transformações econômicas, sociais, culturais, políticas e, especialmente ambientais. Aborda a comercialização dos créditos de carbono através de projetos de Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL), um dos mecanismos de flexibilização criados pelo Protocolo de Kyoto. No contexto de mudanças climáticas, uma matriz energética que utilize fontes de energia que não emitam gases causadores do efeito estufa (GEE) se mostra uma importante estratégia de desenvolvimento sustentável. Sob essa perspectiva, a energia nucleoelétrica é apresentada como uma alternativa viável aos combustíveis fósseis, considerando que esta é uma energia limpa e compatível com a perspectiva de desenvolvimento sustentável. A Fábrica de Combustível Nuclear (FCN), localizada em Resende (Rio de Janeiro), pertencente às Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil (INB), é um conjunto de sofisticadas fábricas nas quais se processam etapas importantes do ciclo do combustível nuclear. Na FCN, o Centro Zoobotânico realiza a gestão das atividades voltadas para a conservação da natureza tais como o Programa de Recuperação de Mata Ciliar, Reflorestamento e Fauna. O Relatório de inventário das emissões diretas e indiretas de GEE da FCN, elaborado pela INB para o ano de 2008, permite a auto-avaliação da empresa, retratando a preocupação corporativa com as questões relativas às mudanças climáticas. Segundo este Relatório, o total de emissões de GEE quantificado corresponde a 12,14% da capacidade total de sequestro de dióxido de carbono, no período de Janeiro a Dezembro de 2008. A proteção de florestas e a plantação de árvores são componentes essenciais de qualquer estratégia global para mitigação da mudança climática, e a participação da INB no mercado de crédito de carbono pode proporcionar externalidades positivas, tais como ganhos de imagem, adequação a padrões ambientais e melhoria do relacionamento com a sociedade.

Stability of Hypervelocity Boundary Layers

The early stage of laminar-turbulent transition in a hypervelocity boundary layer is studied using a combination of modal linear stability analysis, transient growth analysis, and direct numerical simulation. Modal stability analysis is used to clarify the behavior of first and second mode instabilities on flat plates and sharp cones for a wide range of high enthalpy flow conditions relevant to experiments in impulse facilities. Vibrational nonequilibrium is included in this analysis, its influence on the stability properties is investigated, and simple models for predicting when it is important are described.

Transient growth analysis is used to determine the optimal initial conditions that lead to the largest possible energy amplification within the flow. Such analysis is performed for both spatially and temporally evolving disturbances. The analysis again targets flows that have large stagnation enthalpy, such as those found in shock tunnels, expansion tubes, and atmospheric flight at high Mach numbers, and clarifies the effects of Mach number and wall temperature on the amplification achieved. Direct comparisons between modal and non-modal growth are made to determine the relative importance of these mechanisms under different flow regimes.

Conventional stability analysis employs the assumption that disturbances evolve with either a fixed frequency (spatial analysis) or a fixed wavenumber (temporal analysis). Direct numerical simulations are employed to relax these assumptions and investigate the downstream propagation of wave packets that are localized in space and time, and hence contain a distribution of frequencies and wavenumbers. Such wave packets are commonly observed in experiments and hence their amplification is highly relevant to boundary layer transition prediction. It is demonstrated that such localized wave packets experience much less growth than is predicted by spatial stability analysis, and therefore it is essential that the bandwidth of localized noise sources that excite the instability be taken into account in making transition estimates. A simple model based on linear stability theory is also developed which yields comparable results with an enormous reduction in computational expense. This enables the amplification of finite-width wave packets to be taken into account in transition prediction.

Riscos ocupacionais e problemas de saúde associados às condições de trabalho de enfermagem em unidades intensivas hospitalares

Trata-se de um estudo quantitativo, descritivo, visando uma análise das condições de trabalho em unidades intensivas de um hospital universitário no município do Rio de Janeiro. Foi definido como objeto de estudo a percepção dos trabalhadores de enfermagem sobre os riscos ocupacionais e os problemas de saúde inerentes às condições de trabalho em unidades intensivas e como problema de pesquisa: quais os riscos ocupacionais e problemas de saúde relacionados às condições de trabalho, percebidos pelos trabalhadores de enfermagem, em unidades intensivas de um hospital universitário? O objetivo geral foi estudar nas unidades intensivas os riscos ocupacionais e problemas de saúde da equipe de enfermagem e sua relação com condições de trabalho, a partir da percepção dos mesmos. Os objetivos específicos traçados foram: identificar as características pessoais e profissionais dos trabalhadores de enfermagem de unidades intensivas; descrever os fatores de risco do ambiente de trabalho percebidos pelos trabalhadores de enfermagem; levantar os problemas de saúde percebidos pelos trabalhadores e sua relação com o trabalho; analisar a associação entre os problemas de saúde percebidos pelos trabalhadores de enfermagem e as condições do trabalho em unidades intensivas. Participaram da pesquisa 125 profissionais de enfermagem de quatro unidades intensivas do Hospital Universitário (HU) entre Maio e Julho de 2009. A predominância foi de profissionais do sexo feminino, com idade acima dos 40 anos, com mais de um vínculo empregatício e trabalhando no HU há mais de 10 anos. Os riscos ocupacionais mais percebidos pelos trabalhadores foram os ergonômicos, seguido dos biológicos, de acidentes, físicos e químicos. Os problemas de saúde mais frequentes foram varizes, problemas oculares, lombalgias, estresse e depressão, transtornos do sono, lesões de coluna vertebral, dores de cabeça, mudanças no humor, dores musculares crônicas e hipertensão arterial. Pela associação entre riscos ocupacionais e problemas de saúde, conclui-se que os trabalhadores expostos a fatores de riscos ergonômicos e físicos têm maior probabilidade de adquirir problemas de saúde osteoarticulares e circulatórios (varizes). Diante dos dados desta pesquisa faz-se necessário aprofundamento da investigação sobre os fatores de riscos encontrados e possíveis medidas para minimizá-los, mediante novos estudos. Como recomendações destacam-se a criação de um espaço de discussão entre os gerentes e trabalhadores para a elaboração de um programa que vise a promoção e proteção da saúde do trabalhador de enfermagem de unidades intensivas; implementação de medidas de controle específicas para cada tipo de risco evidenciado e a criação de um Comitê de Ergonomia para operacionalizar a implementação das melhorias no HU, a fim de consolidar as transformações esperadas.

Controles da produção primária em um Córrego de Mata Atlântica

Esta dissertação consiste de dois capítulos, cada um correspondendo a um estudo realizado de modo independente. Em um córrego de Mata Atlântica, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, foram estudados efeitos de herbívoros e de controles ambientais no perifíton. No primeiro trabalho foram testados os efeitos do camarão Potimirim glabra, um engenheiro do ecossistema, nos parâmetros metabólicos de comunidades perifíticas (Produção, Respiração, Metabolismo Líquido da Comunidade e razão Produção:Respiração). O tratamento de inclusão de Potimirim produziu resultados inversos aos esperados, com aumento da clorofila e massa seca das comunidades perifíticas, levantando dúvida com relação à eficácia dos tratamentos. Nenhuma das variáveis metabólicas esteve relacionada aos tratamentos. Considera-se que efeitos artefato da gaiola utilizada na inclusão dos camarões podem ter prejudicado o efeito esperado de remoção de material pelos camarões. Os resultados podem indicar, entretanto, que para o efeito de herbívoros os parâmetros clorofila e massa seca sejam mais sensíveis e variáveis que os metabólicos para as comunidades estudadas. São recomendados futuros trabalhos com metodologias que reduzam os efeitos artefato, tais como exclusão de herbívoros com cercas elétricas. No segundo trabalho, foram estudados os estoques, a distribuição e os controles da biomassa perifítica para o córrego. Entre os substratos estudados, a areia apresentou os maiores estoques, com 5 vezes mais clorofila e 20 vezes mais massa seca que os substratos pedra e folha. Diferenças entre trechos com diferentes densidades do camarão herbívoro Potimirim glabra revelaram para o substrato pedra menores valores de massa seca para os locais onde o camarão é mais numeroso. Entre as variáveis ambientais, apenas a profundidade esteve relacionada aos dados de biomassa nos substratos pedra e areia. A comparação dos dados deste estudo com trabalhos anteriores pode indicar que distúrbios provocados por enchentes podem alterar os estoques e os padrões de distribuição para este córrego.

The instability of fluids with time dependent heating

The stability of a fluid having a non-uniform temperature stratification is examined analytically for the response of infinitesimal disturbances. The growth rates of disturbances have been established for a semi-infinite fluid for Rayleigh numbers of 10³, 10⁴, and 10⁵ and for Prandtl numbers of 7.0 and 0.7.

The critical Rayleigh number for a semi-infinite fluid, based on the effective fluid depth, is found to be 32, while it is shown that for a finite fluid layer the critical Rayleigh number depends on the rate of heating. The minimum critical Rayleigh number, based on the depth of a fluid layer, is found to be 1340.

The stability of a finite fluid layer is examined for two special forms of heating. The first is constant flux heating, while in the second, the temperature of the lower surface is increased uniformly in time. In both cases, it is shown that for moderate rates of heating the critical Rayleigh number is reduced, over the value for very slow heating, while for very rapid heating the critical Rayleigh number is greatly increased. These results agree with published experimental observations.

The question of steady, non-cellular convection is given qualitative consideration. It is concluded that, although the motion may originate from infinitesimal disturbances during non-uniform heating, the final flow field is intrinsically non-linear.

Field and Laboratory Studies of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol

This thesis is the culmination of field and laboratory studies aimed at assessing processes that affect the composition and distribution of atmospheric organic aerosol. An emphasis is placed on measurements conducted using compact and high-resolution Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometers (AMS). The first three chapters summarize results from aircraft campaigns designed to evaluate anthropogenic and biogenic impacts on marine aerosol and clouds off the coast of California. Subsequent chapters describe laboratory studies intended to evaluate gas and particle-phase mechanisms of organic aerosol oxidation.

The 2013 Nucleation in California Experiment (NiCE) was a campaign designed to study environments impacted by nucleated and/or freshly formed aerosol particles. Terrestrial biogenic aerosol with > 85% organic mass was observed to reside in the free troposphere above marine stratocumulus. This biogenic organic aerosol (BOA) originated from the Northwestern United States and was transported to the marine atmosphere during periodic cloud-clearing events. Spectra recorded by a cloud condensation nuclei counter demonstrated that BOA is CCN active. BOA enhancements at latitudes north of San Francisco, CA coincided with enhanced cloud water concentrations of organic species such as acetate and formate.

Airborne measurements conducted during the 2011 Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment (E-PEACE) were aimed at evaluating the contribution of ship emissions to the properties of marine aerosol and clouds off the coast of central California. In one study, analysis of organic aerosol mass spectra during periods of enhanced shipping activity yielded unique tracers indicative of cloud-processed ship emissions (m/z 42 and 99). The variation of their organic fraction (f₄₂ and f₉₉) was found to coincide with periods of heavy (f₄₂ > 0.15; f₉₉ > 0.04), moderate (0.05 < f₄₂ < 0.15; 0.01 < f₉₉ < 0.04), and negligible (f₄₂ < 0.05; f₉₉ < 0.01) ship influence. Application of these conditions to all measurements conducted during E-PEACE demonstrated that a large fraction of cloud droplet (72%) and dry aerosol mass (12%) sampled in the California coastal study region was heavily or moderately influenced by ship emissions. Another study investigated the chemical and physical evolution of a controlled organic plume emitted from the R/V Point Sur. Under sunny conditions, nucleated particles composed of oxidized organic compounds contributed nearly an order of magnitude more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) than less oxidized particles formed under cloudy conditions. The processing time necessary for particles to become CCN active was short ( < 1 hr) compared to the time needed for particles to become hygroscopic at sub-saturated humidity ( > 4 hr).

Laboratory chamber experiments were also conducted to evaluate particle-phase processes influencing aerosol phase and composition. In one study, ammonium sulfate seed was coated with a layer of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from toluene oxidation followed by a layer of SOA from α-pinene oxidation. The system exhibited different evaporative properties than ammonium sulfate seed initially coated with α-pinene SOA followed by a layer of toluene SOA. This behavior is consistent with a shell-and-core model and suggests limited mixing among different SOA types. Another study investigated the reactive uptake of isoprene epoxy diols (IEPOX) onto non-acidified aerosol. It was demonstrated that particle acidity has limited influence on organic aerosol formation onto ammonium sulfate seed, and that the chemical system is limited by the availability of nucleophiles such as sulfate.

Flow tube experiments were conducted to examine the role of iron in the reactive uptake and chemical oxidation of glycolaldehyde. Aerosol particles doped with iron and hydrogen peroxide were mixed with gas-phase glycolaldehyde and photochemically aged in a custom-built flow reactor. Compared to particles free of iron, iron-doped aerosols significantly enhanced the oxygen to carbon (O/C) ratio of accumulated organic mass. The primary oxidation mechanism is suggested to be a combination of Fenton and photo-Fenton reactions which enhance particle-phase OH radical concentrations.

The chemical budget of a lake

A progress report on research undertaken on the chemical budget of a lake, outlining the importance of nitrogen and phosphorus in governing the production of life in freshwater. The report uses the Rivers Brathay and Leven, which flow into Windermere, as examples. The report also refers to the Rivers Rothay, Troutbeck and Cunsey. A table is including which shows the monthly average nitrate content (mg per litre) of the River Brathey and River Leven for 1937 into 1938. The report also includes a figure showing Windermere lake levels, discharge and rainfall during 1937. It also briefly considers possible anthropogenic influences on water quality.

Changes in the phytoplankton

An article discussing changes observed in phytoplankton of the Lake District. An overview is given of previous phytoplankton studies undertaken in the area, detailing some changes found in various waterbodies. Water quality changes in Lake Windermere are mentioned, including the gradual increase of dissolved organic matter (DOM), believed to be caused by the increase of sewage to the lake. The lakes in the Alps are given as an example of a similar anthropogenic pollution scenario. The treatment of a Lake District tarn with bone meal is described. The article goes on to discuss the composition of plankton throughout the year under a variety of climatic conditions. A figure shows seasonal variation in the consistuents of phytoplankton in Windermere (north basin).

Steady surface wave pattern in a shear flow

The subject under investigation concerns the steady surface wave patterns created by small concentrated disturbances acting on a non-uniform flow of a heavy fluid. The initial value problem of a point disturbance in a primary flow having an arbitrary velocity distribution (U(y), 0, 0) in a direction parallel to the undisturbed free surface is formulated. A geometric optics method and the classical integral transformation method are employed as two different methods of solution for this problem. Whenever necessary, the special case of linear shear (i.e. U(y) = 1+ϵy)) is chosen for the purpose of facilitating the final integration of the solution.

The asymptotic form of the solution obtained by the method of integral transforms agrees with the leading terms of the solution obtained by geometric optics when the latter is expanded in powers of small ϵ r.

The overall effect of the shear is to confine the wave field on the downstream side of the disturbance to a region which is smaller than the wave region in the case of uniform flows. If U(y) vanishes, and changes sign at a critical plane y = y_cr (e.g. ϵy_cr = -1 for the case of linear shear), then the boundary of this asymmetric wave field approaches this critical vertical plane. On this boundary the wave crests are all perpendicular to the x-axis, indicating that waves are reflected at this boundary.

Inside the wave field, as in the case of a point disturbance in a uniform primary flow, there exist two wave systems. The loci of constant phases (such as the crests or troughs) of these wave systems are not symmetric with respect to the x-axis. The geometric optics method and the integral transform method yield the same result of these loci for the special case of U(y) = U_o(1 + ϵy) and for large Kr (ϵr ˂˂ 1 ˂˂ Kr).

An expression for the variation of the amplitude of the waves in the wave field is obtained by the integral transform method. This is in the form of an expansion in small ϵr. The zeroth order is identical to the expression for the uniform stream case and is thus not applicable near the boundary of the wave region because it becomes infinite in that neighborhood. Throughout this investigation the viscous terms in the equations of motion are neglected, a reasonable assumption which can be justified when the wavelengths of the resulting waves are sufficiently large.

Analysis of soils and sediments for organic pollutants

20 samples of soil or sediment (7 of which were predominantly sand) from various locations were received for analysis of their content of organic pollutants. These analyses were performed using a capillary column gas chromatograph equipped with an electron impact (E.I.) mass spectrometer as detector and using computerised data storage. In addition to the target compounds, the full scan data were examined to determine the composition of natural organic products and a series of diagnostic fragment ions was used to search for additional anthropogenic products. Organic-rich environmental samples are notoriously difficult to analyse for pollutant organics owing to the presence of high concentrations of many natural organic compounds. A single procedure for extraction and clean-up was adopted. It was designed for chlorinated aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons and other pesticides containing acidic functional groups and was based on published methods for the determination of organic pollutants in soils and sediments. 4 soils and 2 sands showed levels of one or two groups of PCBs slightly in excess of the detection limit, one sample showed a similar level of 2,4-D and 3 samples contained dieldrin at or just above the detection limit.

Mutagênese ambiental: estabelecimento de valores de referência para manguezais da Baía de Ilha Grande

Estudos ambientais têm demonstrado que substâncias geradas por processos antropogênicos podem causar efeitos prejudiciais interferindo no equilíbrio natural do ecossistema. Manguezais exercem funções essenciais nos ciclos biológicos e constituem Área de Proteção Permanente no Brasil. Infelizmente, eles estão sendo degradados acima do seu limite de suporte, levando a uma redução das áreas remanescentes no mundo. Este trabalho apresenta os resultados de mutagenicidade e genotoxicidade observados em quatro amostragens (PI, V, O e PII) entre 2009 e 2010, relacionados com metais e hidrocarbonetos policíclicos aromáticos (HPA) em sedimento de mangue para a caracterização dos valores de referência. Os testes de genotoxicidade foram feitos a partir de hemócitos do caranguejo Goniopsis cruentata, coletados em um ecossistema potencialmente não poluído do Brasil, localizado no sul do Rio de Janeiro (Parati/RJ), chamado de "Saco do Mamanguá". Coleta, armazenamento e manipulação dos sedimentos e material biológico de cinco pontos de amostragem (M1- M5) foram processados de acordo com normas norte-americanas reconhecidas. A identificação das substâncias químicas foi realizada com extratos de sedimentos e utilizada no bioensaio Salmonella/microssoma (Kado). A avaliação de potenciais danos genotóxicos estabelecidos foi realizada através do Teste de Micronúcleo, que apresentou valores significativos na amostra V. Resultados negativos foram observados para as cepas de Salmonella typhimurium TA97, TA98, TA100 e TA102, tanto na ausência quanto na presença de fração de metabolização exógena de mamíferos (S9 mix 4%) em todas as análises. A quantificação por cromatografia gasosa com detecção por espectrometria de massas dos 16 HPA prioritários em termos de conservação ambiental apresentou valores baixos nas duas primeiras amostragens (PI e V) e nulos nas coletas seguintes (O e PII), nos mesmos pontos. De acordo com os valores utilizados nos Estados Unidos e Canadá como referência, os detectados por nós não são considerados como toxicantes ambientais positivos, com exceção do Benzo(a)pireno, que em M1V apresentou valores um pouco acima do limite a partir do qual já podem ser observados pequenos efeitos na biota. A análise dos metais (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb e Zn) por Espectrometria de Absorção Atômica inicialmente realizada com a água intersticial foi melhor interpretada a partir da matriz sedimento. Este estudo contribuirá com a implementação de indicadores para valores de referência em mangue.

'The highly nervous system of the English Lakes': aquatic ecosystem sensitivity to external changes, as demonstrated by diatoms.

The author reviews the stratigraphic diatom profile of Cumbrian lakes since the last glaciation. Knowledge of both present and previous interglacials suggests that a natural cycle of change is imposed on all lakes. The nature of inwashed material is dependant on climatic and natural soilcycles and this affects the water quality and sensitive aquatic biota. Anthropogenic effects are superimposed upon this with forest clearance and pollution. Whilst some Cumbrian diatom profiles extend over the entire post glacial, others cover only detailed sections relating to particular problems. Causes and effect of recent changes in lakes can be studied using indicator species but palaeocology contributes greatly to understanding of long term changes.

Hydrobiological service for observations and control of surface waters in the USSR

Technological progress, having reached in our time an unprecedented speed, is still increasing the rate of mineral extraction, industrial construction, and the mastering of new kinds of energy is growing. Correspondingly the anthropogenic load on the biosphere is increased and that requires the comprehensive development of monitoring the anthropogenic changes in the natural environment. Among problems resulting from the scientific-technological development, a noticeable place is given to the problem of pure water. Surface land waters proved to be a sensitive link in the natural environment. The hydrobiological service for observations and control of the surface waters is one of the subsystems of the State/Federal Service for Observations and Control of pollution levels in environmental objects, conducted by the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeor- ology and Control of the Natural Environment. This paper summarises the the main principles of the organisation and goals of the national system of monitoring of the state of the natural environment in the USSR.

The application of methods of ecosystem analysis to the evaluation of water quality

Guided by experience and the theoretical development of hydrobiology, it can be considered that the main aim of water quality control should be the establishment of the rates of the self-purification process of water bodies which are capable of maintaining communities in a state of dynamic balance without changing the integrity of the ecosystem. Hence, general approaches in the elaboration of methods for hydrobiological control are based on the following principles: a. the balance of matter and energy in water bodies; b. the integrity of the ecosystem structure and of its separate components at all levels. Ecosystem analysis makes possible a revelation of the whole totality of factors which determine the anthropogenic evolution of a water body. This is necessary for the study of long-term changes in water bodies. The principles of ecosystem analysis of water bodies, together with the creation of their mathematical models, are important because, in future, with the transition of water demanding production into closed cycles of water supply, changes in water bodies will arise in the main through the influence of 'diffuse' pollution (from the atmosphere, with utilisation in transport etc.).