Planeamento de Trajetória para Operações de Busca e Salvamento com UAVs

Os sistemas autónomos trazem como mais valia aos cenários de busca e salvamento a possibilidade de minimizar a presença de Humanos em situações de perigo e a capacidade de aceder a locais de difícil acesso. Na dissertação propõe-se endereçar novos métodos para perceção e navegação de veículos aéreos não tripulados (UAV), tendo como foco principal o planeamento de trajetórias e deteção de obstáculos. No que respeita à perceção foi desenvolvido um método para gerar clusters tendo por base os voxels gerados pelo Octomap. Na área de navegação, foram desenvolvidos dois novos métodos de planeamento de trajetórias, GPRM (Grid Probabilistic Roadmap) e PPRM (Particle Probabilistic Roadmap), que tem como método base para o seu desenvolvimento o PRM. O primeiro método desenvolvido, GPRM, espalha as partículas numa grid pré-definida, construindo posteriormente o roadmap na área determinada pela grid e com isto estima o trajeto mais curto até ao ponto destino. O segundo método desenvolvido, PPRM, espalha as partículas pelo cenário de aplicação, gera o roadmap considerando o mapa total e atribui uma probabilidade que irá permitir definir a trajetória otimizada. Para analisar a performance de cada método em comparação com o PRM, efetua-se a sua avaliação em três cenários distintos com recurso ao simulador MORSE.

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

A parasitological and serological malária survey in Amazonas, 1971

Thick blood films and malaria indirect fluorescent antibody test (P. falciparum and P. vivax) were done in four different regions in Amazonas. There was a very low prevalence of parasites anã the antibody rates suggest a small amount of transmission and that P. vivax was the predominant parasite. The calculation of probability of being infected per year was about 8% in Tefé. Coari, Colonia Fernanão Costa and Labrea and 0.8% in Anori.

Numerical methods and tangible interfaces for pollutant dispersion simulation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

A Pilot Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Treatments in Newly Diagnosed High-Grade Gliomas: The Example of 5-Aminolevulinic Acid Compared With White-Light Surgery

BACKGROUND: High-grade gliomas are aggressive, incurable tumors characterized by extensive diffuse invasion of the normal brain parenchyma. Novel therapies at best prolong survival; their costs are formidable and benefit is marginal. Economic restrictions thus require knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of treatments. Here, we show the cost-effectiveness of enhanced resections in malignant glioma surgery using a well-characterized tool for intraoperative tumor visualization, 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided neurosurgery compared with white-light surgery in adult patients with newly diagnosed high-grade glioma, adopting the perspective of the Portuguese National Health Service. METHODS: We used a Markov model (cohort simulation). Transition probabilities were estimated with the use of data from 1 randomized clinical trial and 1 noninterventional prospective study. Utility values and resource use were obtained from published literature and expert opinion. Unit costs were taken from official Portuguese reimbursement lists (2012 values). The health outcomes considered were quality-adjusted life-years, lifeyears, and progression-free life-years. Extensive 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are below €10 000 in all evaluated outcomes, being around €9100 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, €6700 per life-year gained, and €8800 per progression-free life-year gained. The probability of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery cost-effectiveness at a threshold of €20000 is 96.0% for quality-adjusted life-year, 99.6% for life-year, and 98.8% for progression-free life-year. CONCLUSION: 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery appears to be cost-effective in newly diagnosed high-grade gliomas compared with white-light surgery. This example demonstrates cost-effectiveness analyses for malignant glioma surgery to be feasible on the basis of existing data.

Diabetes : percepção da doença e auto-cuidado

RESUMO - O aumento da prevalência da diabetes e a baixa adesão ao seu tratamento estão associados a um mau controlo metabólico, desenvolvimento de complicações, aumento dos custos económicos e ineficiência do sistema de saúde. De acordo com o modelo de auto-regulação, o estudo das representações da doença permite predizer os comportamentos dos doentes face a esta patologia. O objectivo do estudo é verificar a existência de relação entre a forma como os diabéticos tipo 2 percepcionam a sua doença, de acordo com o modelo de auto-regulação de Leventhal e colaboradores, e a adesão às actividades de auto-cuidado da diabetes. Consiste num estudo observacional, descritivo, analítico, do tipo transversal, a desenvolver em Cuidados de Saúde Primários. A amostra é constituída por 339 indivíduos diabéticos, de ambos os sexos, com idade igual ou superior a 20 anos e com diagnóstico de diabetes tipo 2 há mais de 6 meses. Trata-se de uma amostra probabilística, aleatória simples, seleccionada numa Unidade de Saúde Familiar (USF). A recolha de dados é realizada através do preenchimento de uma ficha de caracterização socio-demográfica e clínica, a partir do processo clínico electrónico, e através da aplicação de dois questionários de auto-preenchimento. Os resultados são analisados através do Statistical Program for Social Sciences (SPSS) – versão 17.0.

How do wages react to the business cycle? A microeconometric approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Cost-Effectiveness of Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants for Atrial Fibrillation in Portugal

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES:Recently, three novel non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants received approval for reimbursement in Portugal for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). It is therefore important to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of these new oral anticoagulants in Portuguese AF patients. METHODS: A Markov model was used to analyze disease progression over a lifetime horizon. Relative efficacy data for stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic), bleeding (intracranial, other major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major bleeding), myocardial infarction and treatment discontinuation were obtained by pairwise indirect comparisons between apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban using warfarin as a common comparator. Data on resource use were obtained from the database of diagnosis-related groups and an expert panel. Model outputs included life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), direct healthcare costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS:Apixaban provided the most life years gained and QALYs. The ICERs of apixaban compared to warfarin and dabigatran were €5529/QALY and €9163/QALY, respectively. Apixaban was dominant over rivaroxaban (greater health gains and lower costs). The results were robust over a wide range of inputs in sensitivity analyses. Apixaban had a 70% probability of being cost-effective (at a threshold of €20 000/QALY) compared to all the other therapeutic options. CONCLUSIONS:Apixaban is a cost-effective alternative to warfarin and dabigatran and is dominant over rivaroxaban in AF patients from the perspective of the Portuguese national healthcare system. These conclusions are based on indirect comparisons, but despite this limitation, the information is useful for healthcare decision-makers.

The use of technology in Portuguese hospitals: The case of MRI

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Do hospitals react to random demand pressure by early discharges?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Impact of health conditions on absenteeism from work

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Tuberculose e infecção VIH/SIDA : uma análise comparativa em Portugal continental no biénio 2008-2009

RESUMO - Introdução: Actualmente 11,3 milhões de indivíduos estão co-infectados pela Tuberculose/Vírus Imunodeficiência Humana (TB/VIH), uma das principais causas de incapacidade e morte no mundo. É determinada pela exposição dos indivíduos aos factores de risco e condições/determinantes sociais de saúde. Várias são as medidas criadas a nível nacional e internacional na luta contra TB e a infecção VIH. Objectivo: Caracterizar e comparar os casos de TB entre os indivíduos não infectados com VIH e os infectados com VIH, considerando as características sócio-demográficas, o tratamento, patologias associadas e factores de risco. Método: Estudo descritivo, quantitativo e observacional. A informação foi obtida a partir da base de dados do Sistema Nacional de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Tuberculose dos casos de TB notificados entre 1 de Janeiro de 2008 a 31 de Dezembro de 2009. Para tratamento e análise estatística (descritiva e inferencial) o programa usado foi o SPSS versão 18,0. Resultados: 12,8% dos indivíduos estavam co-infectados com TB/VIH e 87,2% não estavam co-infectados. A presença de VIH nos casos de tuberculose apresenta evidência de relação com quase todas variáveis em estudo (p<0,00) excepto a presença de insuficiência renal (p<0,307). Apresentam maior probalidade de risco da co-infecção TB/VIH os homens, a faixa etária [35;44[, os estrangeiros, os desempregados, estar em retratamento e fumar. Os indivíduos com Doença Hepática (OR= 5,238; IC95%: 3,706;7,403; ORA = 3,104; IC95%: 2,164;4,454), patologias associadas (OR=13,199; IC95%: 11,246; 15,491; ORA=21,348; IC95%:17,569; 25,940) e factores de risco (OR=3,237; IC95%: 2,968; 3,531; ORA=2,644; IC95%: 2,414; 2,985) tem maior probalidade da co-infecção TB/VIH. O ajustamento para o sexo e a idade interferiu em todas variáveis em estudo. Conclusão: Os homens, da faixa etária [35;44 [, desempregados, estrangeiros, em retratamento, fumadores apresentam maior probalidade de risco de estar co-infectado com TB/VIH.

Three essays in risky behaviors

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Prevalência de infecção numa população de hemodialisados, em ambiente clínico

RESUMO: Foram estudados, numa análise retrospectiva, 1689 doentes com insuficiência renal crónica (IRC), pertencentes a 11 clínicas de hemodiálise, num período de 1 Janeiro de 2009 a 1 de Janeiro de 2012 (três anos). Utilizaram-se os dados clínicos desses doentes relativos a amostras de hemoculturas, exsudados purulentos e urinas assépticas, de forma a caracterizar os microorganismos existentes e relacionou-se com alguns dados demográficos. Os doentes do sexo masculino estiveram sempre em maior número pelo que também possuíam a maior média de idades nos vários casos. O presente estudo observou que cerca de metade da população em estudo que se encontra em HD possui menos de 68 anos. Na análise aos dados das hemoculturas confirmou-se que o S.aureus é o microrganismo predominante dos casos de infecção, embora exista uma grande diversidade de microorganismos. Verificou-se também, que quanto maior a idade do doente maior é probabilidade de contrair uma infecção. Os doentes que contraíram infecção foram em número similar, pelo que a sua distribuição por sexo também foi idêntica na infecção, mas não o era inicialmente. Para as amostras de hemoculturas, também se observou que quanto maior é a dimensão da clínica (número de doentes), maior é o número de infecções. Embora esta heterogeneidade já tenha sido descrita para outros países, demonstra que possivelmente existe uma oportunidade de nivelar as clínicas pelas melhores clínicas de forma a obter ganhos em saúde. Nas amostras de exsudados purulentos, o microrganismo mais frequente foi S.aureus, observando-se que com o aumento da idade aumenta também o número de infecções. A distribuição por sexo de doentes com e sem infecção foi semelhante. Nas urinas assépticas o microorganismo predominante foi a E.coli. Mais uma vez se observou que com o aumento da idade aumenta o número de infecções. Na distribuição por sexo, os doentes do sexo feminino encontravam-se em maior número, pelo que também foi o género que mais infecções apresentou. Conclui-se que o padrão de microorganismos apresentado foi de encontro com o esperado, existindo uma grande diversidade de microorganismos nas amostras estudadas. Para além disso a heterogeneidade das clínicas apresenta uma oportunidade para um estudo mais aprofundado pelos profissionais interessados na organização e qualidade dos laboratórios de análises.----------ABSTRACT: This retrospective study involves 1689 patients with chronic kidney disease from 11 clinics, from January 1st 2009 to January 1st 2012 (3 years). The Clinical data used for these patients related to blood culture samples, aseptic urine and purulent exudates, in order to characterize the microorganisms within and its relationship to some demographic data. There was a higher number of male patients and their average age distribution was also wider. The present study observed that around half of the studied population that is in HD is below the age of 68 years. While analyzing the data from the blood cultures, it was confirmed that S. aureus is the predominant microorganism in infections, although a wide variety of microorganisms exists. It was also found that the greater the age of the patient, the greater is the probability of contracting an infection. Patients who contracted infection were in similar number so their gender distribution was also similar in infection, even though it was not so initially. For the blood culture samples, it was also observed that the greater the size of the clinic (number of patients), the greater the number of infections. Although this heterogeneity has already been described for other countries, it demonstrates that there is an opportunity to even all the clinics to the best, in order to obtain health gains. In the samples of purulent exudates, the most frequent microorganism was S. aureus, noting that, with increasing age, the number of infections also increases. The distribution of patients by sex with and without infection was similar. In aseptic urines the predominant microorganism was E.coli. Once again, it was observed the number of infections increases with age. In the distribution by gender, female patients were more numerous, and as such this gender suffered more infections. Overall, the pattern of microorganisms that was detected was as expected, with a registered large diversity in the studied samples. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the clinics presents an opportunity for a more profound study to be undertaken by professionals interested in the quality and organization of clinical analysis laboratories.