Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

Primary Disorders of Neurotransmitter Metabolism: Experience of a Tertiary Center

Neurotransmitter diseases are a group of inherited disorders attributable to a disturbance of neurotransmitter metabolism. Biogenic amines are neurotransmitters with multiple roles including psychomotor function, hormone secretion, cardiovascular, respiratory and gastrointestinal control, sleep mechanisms, body temperature and pain. Given the multiple functions of monoamines, disorders of their metabolism comprise a wide spectrum of manifestations, with motor dysfunction being the most prominent clinical feature. Methods: Case review of 12 patients from 4 families, with primary disorders of biogenic amine metabolism. Results: Aromatic L-amino acid decarboxylase deficiency (4 patients from 2 families), and GTP-cyclohydrolase (8 patients from 2 families) were the two diseases identified. Age at first symptoms varied between 2 months and 6 years. Developmental delay was present in all cases except 2 patients with GTP cyclohydrolase deficiency. The combination of axial hypotonia and limb dystonia was also frequent. Children with aromatic L-amino acid decarboxylase deficiency exhibited temperature instability, oculogyric crisis and disturbances of sleep. The index case of one family with GTP cyclohydrolase deficiency presented with Parkinsonism (bradykinesia, rigidity and hypomimia). Analysis of neurotransmitters and their metabolites in CSF was crucial for the identification of index cases. Response to therapy was variable but in general unsatisfactory except in a family with GTP cyclohydrolase deficiency. Conclusions: These disorders should be considered in the differential diagnosis of paediatric neurodegenerative diseases, in order to allow an adequate therapeutic trial that can favor prognosis.

De Novo Hypertension and Decline of Renal Function in a Young Woman with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Antiphospholipid syndrome nephropathy and lupus nephritis have similar clinical and laboratory manifestations and achieving the accuracy of diagnosis required for correct treatment frequently necessitates a kidney biopsy. We report the case of a 29-year-old woman referred to the nephrology service for de novo hypertension, decline of renal function and proteinuria. She had had systemic lupus erythematosus and antiphospholipid syndrome since the age of 21 and was taking oral anticoagulation. Two weeks later, after treatment of hypertension and achievement of adequate coagulation parameters, a percutaneous renal biopsy was performed. The biopsy revealed chronic lesions of focal cortical atrophy, arterial fibrous intimal hyperplasia and arterial thromboses, which are typical features of antiphospholipid syndrome nephropathy. We describe the clinical manifestations and histopathology of antiphospholipid syndrome nephropathy and review the literature on renal biopsy in patients receiving anticoagulation.

Circulation of antibodies against yellow fever virus in a simian population in the area of Porto Primavera Hydroelectric Plant, São Paulo, Brazil

Yellow fever (YF) is an acute viral infectious disease transmitted by mosquitoes which occurs in two distinct epidemiological cycles: sylvatic and urban. In the sylvatic cycle, the virus is maintained by monkey's infection and transovarian transmission in vectors. Surveillance of non-human primates is required for the detection of viral circulation during epizootics, and for the identification of unaffected or transition areas. An ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was standardized for estimation of the prevalence of IgG antibodies against yellow fever virus in monkey sera (Alouatta caraya) from the reservoir area of Porto Primavera Hydroelectric Plant, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 570 monkey sera samples were tested and none was reactive to antibodies against yellow fever virus. The results corroborate the epidemiology of yellow fever in the area. Even though it is considered a transition area, there were no reports to date of epizootics or yellow fever outbreaks in humans. Also, entomological investigations did not detect the presence of vectors of this arbovirus infection. ELISA proved to be fast, sensitive, an adequate assay, and an instrument for active search in the epidemiological surveillance of yellow fever allowing the implementation of prevention actions, even before the occurrence of epizootics.

Desenvolvimento de um fantoma cerebral para ressonância magnética

O controlo da qualidade em ressonância magnética (RM) passa pela realização de diversos testes ao equipamento e calibrações diárias, onde os fantomas desempenham um papel fundamental. Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento de um fantoma cerebral para um sistema de RM de intensidade 3.0 Tesla. Com base na literatura existente, escolheram-se como reagentes o cloreto de gadolínio (III) (GdCl3), a agarose, e o gelificante carragena, tendo sido ainda acrescentado o conservante químico azida de sódio (NaN3) de forma a inibir a degradação da solução. Realizaram-se vários testes com diferentes concentrações dos materiais selecionados até obter as misturas adequadas a suscetibilidade magnética das substâncias branca e cinzenta cerebrais. Os tempos de relaxação T1 das diversas substâncias desenvolvidas foram medidos, apresentando o fantoma final uns tempos de T1 de 702±10 ms, quando a concentração de GdCl3 foi de 100 µmol (substância branca) e 1179±23 ms quando a concentração foi de 15 µmol (substância cinzenta). Os valores de T1 do fantoma foram comparados estatisticamente com os tempos de relaxação conseguidos a partir de um cérebro humano, obtendo-se uma correlação de 0.867 com significância estatística. No intuito de demonstrar a aplicabilidade do fantoma, este foi sujeito a um protocolo de RM, do qual constaram as sequências habitualmente usadas no estudo cerebral. Como principais resultados constatou-se que, nas sequências ponderadas em T1, o fantoma apresenta uma forte associação positiva (rs > 0.700 p = 0.072) com o cérebro de referência, ainda que não sejam estatisticamente significativos. As sequências ponderadas em T2 demonstraram uma correlação positiva moderada e fraca, sendo a ponderação densidade protónica a única a apresentar uma associação negativa. Desta forma, o fantoma revelou-se um ótimo substituto do cérebro humano. Este trabalho culminou na criação de um modelo cerebral tridimensional onde foram individualizadas as regiões das substâncias branca e cinzenta, de forma a posteriormente serem preenchidas pelas correspondentes substâncias desenvolvidas, obtendo-se um fantoma cerebral antropomórfico.

McCune Albright Syndrome: A Diagnosis to be Kept in Mind

Precocious puberty, defined as the development of secondary sexual characteristics before the age of 8, often leads to anxiety in patients and their families but also in clinicians searching for the final diagnosis. After adequate investigation, the majority of the cases in girls turn out to be idiopathic. The authors present a case of McCune Albright syndrome in order to call attention to a rare cause of sexual precocity and the value of ultrasound in the evaluation of these situations. 10 years old infant girl admitted in our department due to irregular menstrual bleeding. She experienced a vaginal bleeding by the age of 3 which led to the diagnosis of McCune Albright Syndrome after a complete evaluation. Pubertal assessment revealed a reversed sequence in the remaining events with adrenarche at 5 and thelarche at 8. Hormonal evaluation demonstrated low FSH and LH levels (11,2 and 6,72 respectively) with high estrogen (204). Pelvic ultrasound showed a normal sized uterus (73x 29x32 mm), endometrial thickness of 5 mm and ovaries with several microfollicles and a copus luteum measuring 23 mm in the right ovary. McCune Albright syndrome is a very uncommon cause of sexual precocity that should, however, be suspected in all infant girls who present with vaginal bleeding. It is characterized by a triad: polyostotic fibrous dysplasia, gonadotropin-independent precocious puberty and café-au-lait skin spots. Due to autonomous production of estrogen by the ovaries, ultrasound image of the female reproductive tract is inconsistent with chronologic age. Pelvic ultrasound demonstrates a normal sized uterus with a well defined cervix and clearly identified ovaries with several follicles, similar to adult women of reproductive age. Ultrasonography of the pelvis has also an important role excluding other causes of GnRH-independent precocious puberty conditions like ovarian cysts or tumors.

Evaluation of enterovirus 71 immune status in São Paulo state, Brazil

Antibodies to Enterovirus 71 (EV71) were evaluated in São Paulo State during 1999-2005. The titer of neutralizing antibodies against EV71 was determined by microneutralization assay, and a titer of > 1:8 was defined as indicative of protected immunity. Neutralizing antibodies to EV71 were observed in 12.4% (55/442) of sera samples, a low protective rate, suggesting that EV71 infection is uncommon in this region, but that there is a relatively high susceptibility to EV71 related diseases, which is worrying considering the recent Asian outbreaks. Also, a significant location-specific difference in seropositivity was observed. Neutralizing antibodies to EV71 were observed in 8.7% (21/241) of São Paulo metropolitan area sera samples, and 16.9% (34/201) of the sera samples from other municipalities. A high number of Brazilian residents live in country and coastal areas without adequate access to piped water or sanitation. This situation may contribute to the EV71 dissemination in these zones. The analysis of environmental samples could possibly make a valuable contribution to studies on the epidemiology of EV71.

Tutor Inteligente para o Ensino em Medicina

O objectivo deste trabalho consistiu no desenvolvimento de um protótipo que possibilita a adaptação do conteúdo disponibilizado de acordo com as características pessoais e psicológicas do aluno, aplicado no ensino da Medicina, nomeadamente na componente de Desenho de Estudos da disciplina de Introdução à Medicina. Para o protótipo desenvolvido foi definida uma arquitectura constituída por três componentes: um Modelo de Aluno que engloba as características pessoais e psicológicas do aluno, um Modelo de Domínio constituído por um grafo de conceitos e um Modelo Pedagógico formado pelas regras de adaptação e mecanismos de interação utilizados para obter uma solução adaptativa. Os diferentes componentes desenvolvidos para este protótipo permitem que este apresente as seguintes funcionalidades: Acesso ao conceito adequado, tendo em consideração o nível de conhecimento do aluno; Visualização de conte udos adequados ao estilo de aprendizagem do aluno; Adaptação do percurso do aluno de acordo com os resultados obtidos; Atualização das preferências de aprendizagem, com base no comportamento demonstrado pelo aluno na interação com o sistema. A primeira versão da ferramenta j a foi implementada. No entanto ainda será realizada a avaliação do protótipo em ambiente de aprendizagem, com a maior brevidade possível.

Sistema para avaliação das vibrações no braço e ombro de um tenista

Este trabalho propõe o desenvolvimento de um módulo capaz de medir a intensidade das vibrações sofridas por um tenista no braço e ombro durante um jogo. Numa primeira fase foi estudada a biomecânica do braço humano e a biomecânica dos movimentos envolvidos no ténis. Foi realizada uma pesquisa sobre os dispositivos MEMs mais adequados bem como o hardware e software a utilizar, tendo sido analisados os requisitos do sistema a implementar. Foi desenvolvido um protótipo electrónico microcontrolado compacto e de baixo custo baseado na utilização de sensores microeletromecânicos (MEMs) de aceleração, permitindo obter informações biomecânicas do desportista e monitoriza-lo durante o treino de maneira não evasiva, possibilitando que ele esteja no seu ambiente natural de treino. O sistema envia as informações dos sensores para um PC através da porta USB sendo estas processados no mesmo. Foi desenvolvida uma interface gráfica intuitiva, para a apresentação dos dados resultantes das medidas, de fácil leitura pelos treinadores. Esta interface grava e apresenta os dados em tempo real. Os testes de campo foram realizados no campo de ténis que existe na Quinta das Freiras em Rio Tinto. O protótipo é de fácil fixação no atleta e permite a monitorização no local de treino sendo pequeno ((20x15mm) e muito leve (2g), tornando-se uma alternativa versátil para o auxilio de atletas e treinadores, aperfeiçoamento da técnica e como ferramenta de pesquisa na área de educação física.

Microbiological quality of drinking rainwater in the inland region of Pajeú, Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil

Despite all efforts to store and reduce its consumption, water is becoming less inexhaustible and its quality is falling faster. Considering that water is essential to animal life, it is necessary to adopt measures to ensure its sanitary conditions in order to be fit for consumption. The aim of this study was to analyze the microbiological quality of drinking rainwater used by rural communities of Tuparetama, a small town located in Northeast Brazil. The study covered seven rural communities, totaling 66 households. In each household two samples were collected, one from a tank and the other from a clay pot located inside the home, resulting in 132 samples (tank plus clay pot). Approximately 90% of samples were below the standard recommended by the current legislation, being considered unfit for human consumption. Part of this high microbiological contamination of drinking rainwater could be related to the lack of sanitary education and of an adequate sewerage sanitation system.

A Multiple Criteria Utility-based Approa h for the Unit Commitment with Wind Power and Pumped Storage Hydro

The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.

Ensinar ciências a alunos com incapacidade intelectual recorrendo ao software Scratch: um estudo de caso

Este estudo procura a valorização do ensino dirigido a alunos com Incapacidade Intelectual. Tem como objetivos conceber um recurso didático, integrando as ferramentas do Scratch, para alunos com Incapacidade Intelectual; averiguar a exequibilidade do uso desse recurso em ambiente natural de ensino e promover o envolvimento de alunos com Incapacidade Intelectual na realização de tarefas propostas na disciplina de Ciências da Natureza. Pretendemos dar resposta às seguintes questões de investigação: (1) A utilização do Scratch é adequada e exequível no trabalho quotidiano de alunos com Incapacidade Intelectual? (2) Em que medida o Scratch pode contribuir para um melhor envolvimento dos alunos com Incapacidade Intelectual na realização das tarefas propostas? Para este efeito, planificamos duas aulas. Na primeira, abordou-se o conteúdo a tratar – Poluição – e na segunda aula utilizou-se o Scratch, desafiando os alunos a desenvolverem diversas tarefas de forma mais ativa. O presente estudo segue uma abordagem metodológica de natureza qualitativa, centrando-se num estudo de caso, onde se aborda a importância do uso das Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação, mais concretamente o software educativo Scratch, como sendo uma ferramenta potenciadora do envolvimento dos alunos. Este estudo foi aplicado a três alunos com Incapacidade Intelectual que tinham sido atribuídos à docente investigadora no presente ano letivo. Os dados foram recolhidos através da análise dos Programas Educativos Individuais dos alunos participantes; da entrevista realizada à docente de Educação Especial; de gravações áudio, de fotografias, de trabalhos realizados pelos alunos participantes e de notas de campo da investigadora. Foi centralidade do estudo a conceção de uma proposta didática e o desenvolvimento dos respetivos recursos, utilizando o software educativo Scratch. Quer a proposta didática quer os recursos a ela associados constituem em si mesmo parte dos resultados do trabalho desenvolvido. Os dados obtidos neste estudo permitem sustentar a ideia de que é possível trabalhar com alunos com Necessidades Educativas Especiais, nomeadamente Incapacidade Intelectual, recorrendo ao software educativo Scratch e que o uso desta ferramenta proporcionou um maior envolvimento e autonomia dos alunos nas tarefas propostas.

Os apoios educativos na construção do sucesso educativo: um estudo de caso num Território de intervenção prioritária

O maior desafio da escola atual é conjugar a escolaridade obrigatória e universal com a ânsia do sucesso educativo. Uma escola justa e democrática não pode limitar-se a selecionar os que têm mais mérito, tem, obrigatoriamente, de se preocupar com aqueles que têm mais dificuldades em ter sucesso e que se vão autoexcluindo. Um dos dispositivos clássicos para potenciar os resultados académicos são os Apoios Educativos, porém no Agrupamento de Escolas X, um Território Educativo de Intervenção Prioritária (TEIP), os resultados obtidos mantêm-se abaixo dos padrões nacionais. É este o ponto de partida do nosso estudo, pois, apesar do investimento considerável no aumento de apoios educativos neste Agrupamento, muitos alunos continuam a registar insucesso educativo.Partindo desta realidade percecionada com a análise documental sobre os Apoios Educativos neste Agrupamento, e após uma ação de acompanhamento da Inspeção Geral da Educação e Ciência, surgiu a necessidade de orientar o nosso olhar para uma análise de todo o processo dos apoios de modo a perceber como se pode otimizar o impacto dos apoios no sucesso dos alunos e, consequentemente, ter o reconhecimento exterior. Tendo por base a análise de conteúdo das entrevistas a docentes de Português e Matemática, envolvidos no processo dos apoios educativos e do focus group realizado com alunos que beneficiaram destes apoios educativos, e suportada por um enquadramento teórico e legal, delineou-se um plano de ação, que visa a melhoria do sucesso educativo de todos os alunos e envolve toda a organização escolar. Perceciona-se a preponderância da coordenação e da monitorização num processo que se pretende efetivo e não de simples receituário, mas acima de tudo, toma-se consciência que para funcionar é necessário que seja devidamente clarificado, sentido e apropriado por todos os atores envolvidos.

Analysis of correlation between cerebrospinal fluid and plasma HIV-1 RNA levels in patients with neurological opportunistic diseases

The question of whether HIV-1 RNA in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is derived from viral replication in the central nervous system or simply reflects the transit of infected lymphocytes from the blood compartment has long been a matter of debate. Some studies found no correlation between CSF and plasma viral load, whereas others did. The lack of a correlation between the two compartments suggests that the presence of HIV-1 RNA is not simply due to the passive passage of the virus from blood to CSF but rather due to intrathecal replication. To evaluate the correlation between plasma and CSF HIV-1 RNA levels and to identify situations in which there is no correlation between the two compartments, seventy patients were prospectively studied. The association between CSF and plasma viral load was evaluated in the total population and in subgroups of patients with similar characteristics. A correlation between the CSF and plasma compartments was observed for patients undergoing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), those with a CD4 T lymphocyte count lower than 200 cells/mm³, and those with increased CSF protein content. On the other hand, no correlation was observed for patients without adequate virological control, who had a CD4 count higher than 200 cells/mm³ and who did not use HAART. The correlation between the two compartments observed in some patients suggests that CSF HIV-1 RNA levels may reflect plasma levels in these subjects. In contrast, the lack of a correlation between the two compartments in patients who were not on HAART and who had normal CSF proteins and a poor virological control possibly indicates compartmentalization of the virus in CSF and, consequently, plasma-independent intrathecal viral replication.

Mortality after Discharge from Intensive Care: the Impact of Organ System Failure and Nursing Workload Use at Discharge

OBJECTIVES: Mortality after ICU discharge accounts for approx. 20-30% of deaths. We examined whether post-ICU discharge mortality is associated with the presence and severity of organ dysfunction/failure just before ICU discharge. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study used the database of the EURICUS-II study, with a total of 4,621 patients, including 2,958 discharged alive to the general wards (post-ICU mortality 8.6%). Over a 4-month period we collected clinical and demographic characteristics, including the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II), Nine Equivalents of Nursing Manpower Use Score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. RESULTS: Those who died in the hospital after ICU discharge had a higher SAPS II score, were more frequently nonoperative, admitted from the ward, and had stayed longer in the ICU. Their degree of organ dysfunction/failure was higher (admission, maximum, and delta SOFA scores). They required more nursing workload resources while in the ICU. Both the amount of organ dysfunction/failure (especially cardiovascular, neurological, renal, and respiratory) and the amount of nursing workload that they required on the day before discharge were higher. The presence of residual CNS and renal dysfunction/failure were especially prognostic factors at ICU discharge. Multivariate analysis showed only predischarge organ dysfunction/failure to be important; thus the increased use of nursing workload resources before discharge probably reflects only the underlying organ dysfunction/failure. CONCLUSIONS: It is better to delay the discharge of a patient with organ dysfunction/failure from the ICU, unless adequate monitoring and therapeutic resources are available in the ward.