A novel map-matching procedure for low-sampling GPS data with applications to traffic flow analysis

An extensive sample (2%) of private vehicles in Italy are equipped with a GPS device that periodically measures their position and dynamical state for insurance purposes. Having access to this type of data allows to develop theoretical and practical applications of great interest: the real-time reconstruction of traffic state in a certain region, the development of accurate models of vehicle dynamics, the study of the cognitive dynamics of drivers. In order for these applications to be possible, we first need to develop the ability to reconstruct the paths taken by vehicles on the road network from the raw GPS data. In fact, these data are affected by positioning errors and they are often very distanced from each other (~2 Km). For these reasons, the task of path identification is not straightforward. This thesis describes the approach we followed to reliably identify vehicle paths from this kind of low-sampling data. The problem of matching data with roads is solved with a bayesian approach of maximum likelihood. While the identification of the path taken between two consecutive GPS measures is performed with a specifically developed optimal routing algorithm, based on A* algorithm. The procedure was applied on an off-line urban data sample and proved to be robust and accurate. Future developments will extend the procedure to real-time execution and nation-wide coverage.

Industrial accidents triggered by lightning: causes and consequences

Natural hazards affecting industrial installations could directly or indirectly cause an accident or series of accidents with serious consequences for the environment and for human health. Accidents initiated by a natural hazard or disaster which result in the release of hazardous materials are commonly referred to as Natech (Natural Hazard Triggering a Technological Disaster) accidents. The conditions brought about by these kinds of events are particularly problematic, the presence of the natural event increases the probability of exposition and causes consequences more serious than standard technological accidents. Despite a growing body of research and more stringent regulations for the design and operation of industrial activities, Natech accidents remain a threat. This is partly due to the absence of data and dedicated risk-assessment methodologies and tools. Even the Seveso Directives for the control of risks due to major accident hazards do not include any specific impositions regarding the management of Natech risks in the process industries. Among the few available tools there is the European Standard EN 62305, which addresses generic industrial sites, requiring to take into account the possibility of lightning and to select the appropriate protection measures. Since it is intended for generic industrial installations, this tool set the requirements for the design, the construction and the modification of structures, and is thus mainly oriented towards conventional civil building. A first purpose of this project is to study the effects and the consequences on industrial sites of lightning, which is the most common adverse natural phenomenon in Europe. Lightning is the cause of several industrial accidents initiated by natural causes. The industrial sectors most susceptible to accidents triggered by lightning is the petrochemical one, due to the presence of atmospheric tanks (especially floating roof tanks) containing flammable vapors which could be easily ignited by a lightning strike or by lightning secondary effects (as electrostatic and electromagnetic pulses or ground currents). A second purpose of this work is to implement the procedure proposed by the European Standard on a specific kind of industrial plant, i.e. on a chemical factory, in order to highlight the critical aspects of this implementation. A case-study plant handling flammable liquids was selected. The application of the European Standard allowed to estimate the incidence of lightning activity on the total value of the default release frequency suggested by guidelines for atmospheric storage tanks. Though it has become evident that the European Standard does not introduce any parameters explicitly pointing out the amount of dangerous substances which could be ignited or released. Furthermore the parameters that are proposed to describe the characteristics of the structures potentially subjected to lightning strikes are insufficient to take into account the specific features of different chemical equipment commonly present in chemical plants.

Formazione e gestione di gruppi in reti veicolari ad-hoc per applicazioni di traffic management

Il presente lavoro di tesi si inserisce nel contesto dei sistemi ITS e intende realizzare un insieme di protocolli in ambito VANET relativamente semplici ma efficaci, in grado di rilevare la presenza di veicoli in avvicinamento a un impianto semaforico e di raccogliere quelle informazioni di stato che consentano all’infrastruttura stradale di ottenere una stima il più possibile veritiera delle attuali condizioni del traffico in ingresso per ciascuna delle direzioni previste in tale punto. Si prevede di raccogliere i veicoli in gruppi durante il loro avvicinamento al centro di un incrocio. Ogni gruppo sarà costituito esclusivamente da quelle vetture che stanno percorrendo uno stesso tratto stradale e promuoverà l’intercomunicazione tra i suoi diversi membri al fine di raccogliere e integrare i dati sulla composizione del traffico locale. Il sistema realizzato cercherà di trasmettere alle singole unità semaforiche un flusso di dati sintetico ma costante contenente le statistiche sull’ambiente circostante, in modo da consentire loro di applicare politiche dinamiche e intelligenti di controllo della viabilità. L’architettura realizzata viene eseguita all’interno di un ambiente urbano simulato nel quale la mobilità dei nodi di rete corrisponde a rilevazioni reali effettuate su alcune porzioni della città di Bologna. Le performance e le caratteristiche del sistema complessivo vengono analizzate e commentate sulla base dei diversi test condotti.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.

Classification algorithms for Intelligent Transport Systems

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) consists in the application of ICT to transport to offer new and improved services to the mobility of people and freights. While using ITS, travellers produce large quantities of data that can be collected and analysed to study their behaviour and to provide information to decision makers and planners. The thesis proposes innovative deployments of classification algorithms for Intelligent Transport System with the aim to support the decisions on traffic rerouting, bus transport demand and behaviour of two wheelers vehicles. The first part of this work provides an overview and a classification of a selection of clustering algorithms that can be implemented for the analysis of ITS data. The first contribution of this thesis is an innovative use of the agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm to classify similar travels in terms of their origin and destination, together with the proposal for a methodology to analyse drivers’ route choice behaviour using GPS coordinates and optimal alternatives. The clusters of repetitive travels made by a sample of drivers are then analysed to compare observed route choices to the modelled alternatives. The results of the analysis show that drivers select routes that are more reliable but that are more expensive in terms of travel time. Successively, different types of users of a service that provides information on the real time arrivals of bus at stop are classified using Support Vector Machines. The results shows that the results of the classification of different types of bus transport users can be used to update or complement the census on bus transport flows. Finally, the problem of the classification of accidents made by two wheelers vehicles is presented together with possible future application of clustering methodologies aimed at identifying and classifying the different types of accidents.

Traffic light policies for low penetration rate of monitoring devices

La gestione del traffico è una delle principali problematiche delle città moderne, e porta alla definizione di nuove sfide per quanto riguarda l’ottimizzazione del flusso veicolare. Il controllo semaforico è uno degli elementi fondamentali per ottimizzare la gestione del traffico. Attualmente la rilevazione del traffico viene effettuata tramite sensori, tra i quali vengono maggiormente utilizzate le spire magnetiche, la cui installazione e gestione implica costi elevati. In questo contesto, il progetto europeo COLOMBO si pone come obiettivo l’ideazione di nuovi sistemi di regolazione semaforica in grado di rilevare il traffico veicolare mediante sensori più economici da installare e mantenere, e capaci, sulla base di tali rilevazioni, di auto organizzarsi, traendo ispirazione dal campo dell’intelligenza artificiale noto come swarm intelligence. Alla base di questa auto organizzazione semaforica di COLOMBO vi sono due diversi livelli di politiche: macroscopico e microscopico. Nel primo caso le politiche macroscopiche, utilizzando il feromone come astrazione dell’attuale livello del traffico, scelgono la politica di gestione in base alla quantità di feromone presente nelle corsie di entrata e di uscita. Per quanto riguarda invece le politiche microscopiche, il loro compito è quello di deci- dere la durata dei periodi di rosso o verde modificando una sequenza di fasi, chiamata in COLOMBO catena. Le catene possono essere scelte dal sistema in base al valore corrente della soglia di desiderabilità e ad ogni catena corrisponde una soglia di desiderabilità. Lo scopo di questo elaborato è quello di suggerire metodi alternativi all’attuale conteggio di questa soglia di desiderabilità in scenari di bassa presenza di dispositivi per la rilevazione dei veicoli. Ogni algoritmo complesso ha bisogno di essere ottimizzato per migliorarne le performance. Anche in questo caso, gli algoritmi proposti hanno subito un processo di parameter tuning per ottimizzarne le prestazioni in scenari di bassa presenza di dispositivi per la rilevazione dei veicoli. Sulla base del lavoro di parameter tuning, infine, sono state eseguite delle simulazioni per valutare quale degli approcci suggeriti sia il migliore.

Emergency response to railroad accidents involving hazardous materials

The chemical industry has to face safety problems linked to the hazards of chemicals and the risks posed by the plants where they are handled. However, their transport may cause significant risk values too: it’s not totally possible to avoid the occurrence of accidents. This work is focused on the emergency response to railway accidents involving hazardous materials, that is what has to be done once they happen to limit their consequences. A first effort has been devoted to understand the role given to this theme within legislations: it has been found out that often it’s not even taken into account. Exceptionally a few countries adopt guidelines suggesting how to plan the response, who is appointed to intervene and which actions should be taken first. An investigation has been made to define the tools available for the responders, with attention on the availability of chemical-specific safety distances. It has emerged that the ERG book adopted by some American countries has suggestions and the Belgian legislation too establishes criteria to evaluate these distances. An analysis has been conducted then on the most recent accidents occurred worldwide, to understand how the response was performed and which safety distances were adopted. These values were compared with the numbers reported by the ERG book and the results of two devoted software tools for consequence analysis of accidental spills scenarios. This comparison has shown that there are differences between them and that a more standardized approach is necessary. This is why further developments of the topic should focus on promoting uniform procedures for emergency response planning and on a worldwide adoption of a guidebook with suggestions about actions to reduce consequences and about safety distances, determined following finer researches. For this aim, the development of a detailed database of hazardous materials transportation accidents could be useful.

Potential effect of marine traffic on white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) distribution and behaviour in Faxaflói Bay, southwest Iceland

Faxaflói bay is a short, wide and shallow bay situated in the southwest of Iceland. Although hosting a rather high level of marine traffic, this area is inhabited by many different species of cetaceans, among which the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris), found here all year-round. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of increasing marine traffic on white-beaked dolphins distribution and behaviour, and to determine whether or not a variation in sighting frequencies have occurred throughout years (2008 – 2014). Data on sightings and on behaviour, as well as photographic one, has been collected daily taking advantage of the whale-watching company “Elding” operating in the bay. Results have confirmed the importance of this area for white-beaked dolphins, which have shown a certain level of site fidelity. Despite the high level of marine traffic, this dolphin appears to tolerate the presence of boats: no differences in encounter durations and locations over the study years have occurred, even though with increasing number of vessels, an increase in avoidance strategies has been displayed. Furthermore, seasonal differences in probabilities of sightings, with respect to the time of the day, have been found, leading to suggest the existence of a daily cycle of their movements and activities within the bay. This study has also described a major decline in sighting rates throughout years raising concern about white-beaked dolphin conservation status in Icelandic waters. It is therefore highly recommended a new dedicated survey to be conducted in order to document the current population estimate, to better investigate on the energetic costs that chronic exposure to disturbances may cause, and to plan a more suitable conservation strategy for white-beaked dolphin around Iceland.

Cerebrovascular accidents in adult patients with congenital heart disease

To investigate the prevalence and characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in a large population of adults with congenital heart disease (CHD).

[Driving ability and daytime sleepiness]

Daytime sleepiness is a complaint of about 5-10% in a normal population. The consequences, such as impaired performance and accidents at the workplace and while driving, have major impact on the affected and on society. According to Swiss federal statistics only 1-3% of all motor vehicle accidents are due to excessive daytime sleepiness, which is in great contrast to a figure of 10 to 20% of all accidents derived from scientific studies. Due to the inadequate statistical representation of the problem, insufficient countermeasures have been realized, and the state of drivers breaching traffic regulations is not adequately investigated in this respect. The most prevalent cause of microsleep induced accidents is certainly lack of sleep due to social or professional reasons. A treating physician must also consider sedating drugs and various diseases. The typical characteristics of accidents due to falling asleep at the wheel and the risk factors involved are well established, so that informing the general public, taking prophylactic countermeasures and a targeted investigation in this respect of drivers who have breached the law are all feasible. Since symptoms of sleepiness can be recognized well before any impairment of performance occurs, the most important countermeasure is information of the drivers on the risk factors and on efficient countermeasures against sleepiness at the wheel. Besides correct diagnosis and treatment, the primary goal of physicians treating patients with pathological daytime sleepiness is to inform them at an early stage about the risks of sleepiness and the large responsibility they bear while driving. This information should be written down in the patients' records. Professional drivers suffering from daytime sleepiness, drivers who have already had an accident due to microsleep and unreasonable drivers should be referred to a centre of sleep disorders for objective measurements of sleepiness.

MaxMAC: a Maximally Traffic-Adaptive MAC Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks

Energy efficiency is a major concern in the design of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) and their communication protocols. As the radio transceiver typically accounts for a major portion of a WSN node’s power consumption, researchers have proposed Energy-Efficient Medium Access (E2-MAC) protocols that switch the radio transceiver off for a major part of the time. Such protocols typically trade off energy-efficiency versus classical quality of service parameters (throughput, latency, reliability). Today’s E2-MAC protocols are able to deliver little amounts of data with a low energy footprint, but introduce severe restrictions with respect to throughput and latency. Regrettably, they yet fail to adapt to varying traffic load at run-time. This paper presents MaxMAC, an E2-MAC protocol that targets at achieving maximal adaptivity with respect to throughput and latency. By adaptively tuning essential parameters at run-time, the protocol reaches the throughput and latency of energy-unconstrained CSMA in high-traffic phases, while still exhibiting a high energy-efficiency in periods of sparse traffic. The paper compares the protocol against a selection of today’s E2-MAC protocols and evaluates its advantages and drawbacks.

A Flow Trace Generator using Graph-based Traffic Classification Techniques

We propose a novel methodology to generate realistic network flow traces to enable systematic evaluation of network monitoring systems in various traffic conditions. Our technique uses a graph-based approach to model the communication structure observed in real-world traces and to extract traffic templates. By combining extracted and user-defined traffic templates, realistic network flow traces that comprise normal traffic and customized conditions are generated in a scalable manner. A proof-of-concept implementation demonstrates the utility and simplicity of our method to produce a variety of evaluation scenarios. We show that the extraction of templates from real-world traffic leads to a manageable number of templates that still enable accurate re-creation of the original communication properties on the network flow level.