A comparative analysis of risk stratification tools for emergency department patients with chest pain

Background: Appropriate disposition of emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain is dependent on clinical evaluation of risk. A number of chest pain risk stratification tools have been proposed. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using risk assessment tools from the National Heart Foundation of Australia (HFA), the Goldman risk score and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction risk score (TIMI RS). Methods: This prospective observational study evaluated ED patients aged ≥30 years with non-traumatic chest pain for which no definitive non-ischemic cause was found. Data collected included demographic and clinical information, investigation findings and occurrence of MACE by 30 days. The outcome of interest was the comparative predictive performance of the risk tools for MACE at 30 days, as analyzed by receiver operator curves (ROC). Results: Two hundred eighty-one patients were studied; the rate of MACE was 14.1%. Area under the curve (AUC) of the HFA, TIMI RS and Goldman tools for the endpoint of MACE was 0.54, 0.71 and 0.67, respectively, with the difference between the tools in predictive ability for MACE being highly significant [chi2 (3) = 67.21, N = 276, p < 0.0001]. Conclusion: The TIMI RS and Goldman tools performed better than the HFA in this undifferentiated ED chest pain population, but selection of cutoffs balancing sensitivity and specificity was problematic. There is an urgent need for validated risk stratification tools specific for the ED chest pain population.

Retinal nerve fibre layer thickness is associated with higher risk of foot ulceration in diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Purpose To evaluate the association between retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness and diabetic peripheral neuropathy in people with type 2 diabetes, and specifically those at higher risk of foot ulceration. Methods RNFL thicknesses was measured globally and in four quadrants (temporal, superior, nasal and inferior) at 3.45 mm diameter around the optic nerve head using optical coherence tomography (OCT). Severity of neuropathy was assessed using the Neuropathy Disability Score (NDS). Eighty-two participants with type 2 diabetes were stratified according to NDS scores (0-10) as: none, mild, moderate, and severe neuropathy. A control group was additionally included (n=17). Individuals with NDS≥ 6 (moderate and severe neuropathy) have been shown to be at higher risk of foot ulceration. A linear regression model was used to determine the association between RNFL and severity of neuropathy. Age, disease duration and diabetic retinopathy levels were fitted in the models. Independent t-test was employed for comparison between controls and the group without neuropathy, as well as for comparison between groups with higher and lower risk of foot ulceration. Analysis of variance was used to compare across all NDS groups. Results RNFL thickness was significantly associated with NDS in the inferior quadrant (b= -1.46, p=0.03). RNFL thicknesses globally and in superior, temporal and nasal quadrants did not show significant associations with NDS (all p>0.51). These findings were independent of the effect of age, disease duration and retinopathy. RNFL was thinner for the group with NDS ≥ 6 in all quadrants but was significant only inferiorly (p<0.005). RNFL for control participants was not significantly different from the group with diabetes and no neuropathy (superior p=0.07, global and all other quadrants: p>0.23). Mean RNFL thickness was not significantly different between the four NDS groups globally and in all quadrants (p=0.08 for inferior, P>0.14 for all other comparisons). Conclusions Retinal nerve fibre layer thinning is associated with neuropathy in people with type 2 diabetes. This relationship is strongest in the inferior retina and in individuals at higher risk of foot ulceration.

Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences

Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over eight days to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking, and found that participants became more risk averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an under-appreciated cause of market instability.

Polymorphisms in inflammation pathway genes and endometrial cancer risk

BACKGROUND Experimental and epidemiologic evidence have suggested that chronic inflammation may play a critical role in endometrial carcinogenesis. METHODS To investigate this hypothesis, a two-stage study was carried out to evaluate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in inflammatory pathway genes in association with endometrial cancer risk. In stage I, 64 candidate pathway genes were identified and 4,542 directly genotyped or imputed SNPs were analyzed among 832 endometrial cancer cases and 2,049 controls, using data from the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Genetics Study. Linkage disequilibrium of stage I SNPs significantly associated with endometrial cancer (P < 0.05) indicated that the majority of associations could be linked to one of 24 distinct loci. One SNP from each of the 24 loci was then selected for follow-up genotyping. Of these, 21 SNPs were successfully designed and genotyped in stage II, which consisted of 10 additional studies including 6,604 endometrial cancer cases and 8,511 controls. RESULTS Five of the 21 SNPs had significant allelic odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) as follows: FABP1, 0.92 (0.85-0.99); CXCL3, 1.16 (1.05-1.29); IL6, 1.08 (1.00-1.17); MSR1, 0.90 (0.82-0.98); and MMP9, 0.91 (0.87-0.97). Two of these polymorphisms were independently significant in the replication sample (rs352038 in CXCL3 and rs3918249 in MMP9). The association for the MMP9 polymorphism remained significant after Bonferroni correction and showed a significant association with endometrial cancer in both Asian- and European-ancestry samples. CONCLUSIONS These findings lend support to the hypothesis that genetic polymorphisms in genes involved in the inflammatory pathway may contribute to genetic susceptibility to endometrial cancer. Impact statement: This study adds to the growing evidence that inflammation plays an important role in endometrial carcinogenesis.

Sequencing risk : the worst returns in their worst order

For the first of the baby boomers turning 65 years of age, after a decade littered with financial shocks (dot.com bubble, sub-prime, global financial crisis, sovereign debt), sequencing risk can represent a significant threat to their retirement nest eggs. This paper takes an outcomeoriented approach to the problem, to provide practical insights into how sequencing risk works and the critical dependency of retirement outcomes on sequencing risk. Our analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that it is the accumulated average of investment returns that matter. We show, instead, that it is the realised sequence of returns which largely determines the sustainability of retirement incomes.

Older driver safety and mobility : where to from here?

The older adult population (65 years and over) represents a rapid growing segment of the population in many developed countries. Unlike earlier cohorts of older drivers that included many who were familiar with public transportation, the present cohort of older drivers historically has a greater reliance on the private automobile as their main form of transportation. Recent studies of older adults’ travel patterns reported automobile to be responsible for over 80% of the total number of hours spent on all trips. While older drivers, as a group, does not demonstrate a particular road risk, the evident demographic change and the increased physical fragility and severity of crash-related injuries makes older driver safety a prevalent public health issue. This study systematically reviewed the safety and mobility outcomes of existing strategies used internationally to manage older driver safety, with a specific focus on age-based testing (ABT), license restriction and self-regulation (i.e. voluntary limiting driving in potentially hazardous situations). ABT remains the most commonly adopted strategy by licensing authorities both within Australia and internationally. Heterogeneity in the development of functional declines, and in driving behaviours within the older driver population, makes age an unreliable index of driving capacity. Given the counter-productive safety and mobility outcomes of ABT strategies, their continued popularity within both the legislative and public domains remains problematic. Self-regulation may provide greater potential for reducing older drivers’ crash risk while maintaining their mobility and independence. The current body of literature on older drivers’ self-regulation is systematically reviewed. Despite being promoted by researchers and licensing authorities as a strategy to maintain older driver safety and mobility, the proportion of older drivers who self-regulate, and exactly how they do so, remains unclear. Future research on older drivers’ adoption of self-regulation, particularly the underlying psychological factors that underlies this process, is needed in order to promote its use within the older driver community.

Towards networked governance : improving interagency communication and collaboration for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation in Australia

Major disasters, such as bushfires or floods, place significant stress on scarce public resources. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this stress. An integrated approach to disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) could reduce the stress by encouraging the more efficient use of pooled resources and expertise. A comparative analysis of three extreme climate-related events that occurred in Australia between 2009 and 2011 indicated that a strategy to improve interagency communication and collaboration would be a key factor in this type of policy/planning integration. These findings are in accord with the concepts of Joined-up Government and Network Governance. Five key reforms are proposed: developing a shared policy vision; adopting multi-level planning; integrating legislation; networking organisations; and establishing cooperative funding. These reforms are examined with reference to the related research literature in order to identify potential problems associated with their implementation. The findings are relevant for public policy generally but are particularly useful for CCA and DRM.

A framework for conceptualising traffic safety culture

Traffic safety culture is a relatively new concept which has recently gained attention in the field of traffic safety. There is currently little known regarding the nature of the concept, nor how it should be defined. Preliminary definitions have tended to focus on specific road safety problems and the anticipated effect of a strong traffic safety culture. The literature to date has tended to emphasise how traffic safety culture might be created or shaped. However, without a better understanding of the nature and structure of traffic safety culture, discussions regarding changes to traffic safety culture are restricted. An examination of different conceptualisations and definitions of organisational safety culture provides a preliminary theoretical framework for traffic safety culture. Two high risk driving behaviours within the Australian context are compared to illustrate how key factors within this framework can be used to understand and improve road safety outcomes.

Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

A dedicated retrieval and transfer service : the QUARTS project

Background The transfer and/or retrieval of a critically patient is inherently dangerous not only for the patient but for staff as well. The quality and experience of unplanned transfers can influence patient mortality and morbidity. However, international evidence suggests that dedicated transfer/retrieval teams can improve mortality and morbidity outcomes. Aims The initial aim of this paper is to describe an in-house competency-based training programme, which encompasses the STaR approach to develop members of our existing nursing team to be part of the dedicated transfer/retrieval service. The paper also presents audit data findings which examined the source of referrals, number of patients actually transferred and clinical status of those being transferred. Results Audit data illustrate that the most frequent source of referrals comes from Accident and Emergency and the Surgical Directorate with the most common presenting condition being cardio-respiratory failure or arrest. Audit data reveal that the number of patients actually transferred or retrieved is relatively small (33%) compared with the overall number of requests for assistance. However, 36% of those patients transferred had a level 2 or level 3 acuity status that necessitated the admission to a critical care area. Conclusions A number of studies have concluded that the ill-experienced and ill-equipped transfer team can place patients’ at serious risk of harm. Whether planned or unplanned, dedicated critical care transfer/retrieval teams have been shown to reduce patient mortality and morbidity.

A novel, automated nutrition screening system as a predictor of nutritional risk in an oncology day treatment unit (ODTU)

Purpose Paper-based nutrition screening tools can be challenging to implement in the ambulatory oncology setting. The aim of this study was to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) and a novel, automated nutrition screening system compared to a ‘gold standard’ full nutrition assessment using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Methods An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient oncology day treatment unit (ODTU) within an Australian tertiary health service. Eligibility criteria were as follows: ≥18 years, receiving outpatient anticancer treatment and English literate. Patients self-administered the MST. A dietitian assessed nutritional status using the PGSGA, blinded to the MST score. Automated screening system data were extracted from an electronic oncology prescribing system. This system used weight loss over 3 to 6 weeks prior to the most recent weight record or age-categorised body mass index (BMI) to identify nutritional risk. Sensitivity and specificity against PG-SGA (malnutrition) were calculated using contingency tables and receiver operating curves. Results There were a total of 300 oncology outpatients (51.7 % male, 58.6±13.3 years). The area under the curve (AUC) for weight loss alone was 0.69 with a cut-off value of ≥1 % weight loss yielding 63 % sensitivity and 76.7 % specificity. MST (score ≥2) resulted in 70.6 % sensitivity and 69.5 % specificity, AUC 0.77. Conclusions Both the MST and the automated method fell short of the accepted professional standard for sensitivity (~≥80 %) derived from the PG-SGA. Further investigation into other automated nutrition screening options and the most appropriate parameters available electronically is warranted to support targeted service provision.

Anglican Church knew clergyman Robert Waddington was a risk

AUSTRALIAN church officials knew of child-sex allegations in Britain against a senior clergymen when they pushed a victim into accepting a compensation payout on the basis that there was no evidence to back up his claims of abuse. Former Church of England investigator Ray Morris says he prepared a 2004 report about allegations in Britain and Australia - from the 1960s and 80s - against Robert Waddington. He sent it to north Queensland diocese officials, who were at the time involved in mediation with the Australian victim over his claims that he was abused weekly by Waddington between 1964 and 1968, who was headmaster of St Barnabas boarding school in Ravenshoe, southwest of Cairns.

Genetic polymorphisms in miRNAs targeting the estrogen receptor and their effect on breast cancer risk

Breast cancer is the cancer that most commonly affects women worldwide. This type of cancer is genetically complex, but is strongly linked to steroid hormone signalling systems. Because microRNAs act as translational regulators of multiple genes, including the steroid nuclear receptors, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs genes can have potentially wide-ranging influences on breast cancer development. Thus, this study was conducted to investigate the relationships between six SNPs (rs6977848, rs199981120, rs185641358, rs113054794, rs66461782, and rs12940701) located in four miRNA genes predicted to target the estrogen receptor (miR-148a, miR-221, miR-186, and miR-152) and breast cancer risk in Caucasian Australian women. By using high resolution melt analysis (HRM) and polymerase chain reaction- restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP), 487 samples including 225 controls and 262 cases were genotyped. Analysis of their genotype and allele frequencies indicated that the differences between case and control populations was not significant for rs6977848, rs66461782, and rs12940701 because their p-values are 0.81, 0.93, 0.1 which are all above the threshold value (p=0.05). Our data thus suggests that these SNPs do not affect breast cancer risk in the tested population. In addition, rs199981120, rs185641358, and rs113054794 could not be found in this population, suggesting that these SNPs do not occur in Caucasian Australians.

The effectiveness of an intervention in reducing risk of dioxin exposure in Da Nang : changes in community knowledge, attitudes and prevention practices after 2.5 years

Introduction Environmental and biological samples taken around Da Nang Air Base have shown elevated levels of dioxin over many years [1-3]. A pre-intervention knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey (2009), a risk reduction program (2010) and a post intervention KAP survey (2011) were undertaken in four wards surrounding Danang Airbase. A follow-up evaluation was undertaken in 2013. Methods A KAP survey was implemented among 400 randomly selected food handlers. Eleven indepth interviews and four focus group discussions were also undertaken. Results The knowledge of respondents remained positive and/or improved at 2.5 years follow-up. There were no significant differences in attitudes toward preventing dioxin exposure across surveys; most respondents were positive in all three surveys. An increase in households (69.5%) undertaking measures to prevent exposure was observed, which was higher than in the pre-intervention survey (39.6%) and post- intervention survey (60.4%) (χ2 = 95.6; p < 0.001). The proportion of respondents practicing appropriate preventive measures was also significantly improved. Conclusions Despite most of the intervention program’s activities ceasing in 2010, the risk reduction program has resulted in positive outcomes over the longer-term, with many knowledge and attitude measures remaining stable or imporving. Some KAP indicators decreased, but these KAP indicators were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels.