Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Expression and crystallization of SeDsbA, SeDsbL and SeSrgA from Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium

Pathogens require protein-folding enzymes to produce functional virulence determinants. These foldases include the Dsb family of proteins, which catalyze oxidative folding in bacteria. Bacterial disulfide catalytic processes have been well characterized in Escherichia coli K-12 and these mechanisms have been extrapolated to other organisms. However, recent research indicates that the K-12 complement of Dsb proteins is not common to all bacteria. Importantly, many pathogenic bacteria have an extended arsenal of Dsb catalysts that is linked to their virulence. To help to elucidate the process of oxidative folding in pathogens containing a wide repertoire of Dsb proteins, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium has been focused on. This Gram-negative bacterium contains three DsbA proteins: SeDsbA, SeDsbL and SeSrgA. Here, the expression, purification, crystallization and preliminary diffraction analysis of these three proteins are reported. SeDsbA, SeDsbL and SeSrgA crystals diffracted to resolution limits of 1.55, 1.57 and 2.6 Å and belonged to space groups P21, P21212 and C2, respectively.

Identification of mechanism, PECARN risk factors and injury patterns in severe paediatric cervical spine injuries in Queensland

Introduction Canadian C spine rule and NEXUS criteria have identified risk factors for cervical spine injury in adults but not for children. PECARN has developed an 8 variable model for cervical spine injury in children. We sought to identify the mechanism, prevalence of PECARN risk factors, injury patterns, and management of severe Paediatric cervical spine injuries presenting to the major children’s hospitals in Brisbane, Australia. Methods This a retrospective study of the children with cervical spine injuries who presented directly or were referred to the major children’s hospitals in Brisbane over 5 years. Results There were 38 patients with 18 male and 20 female.The mean age was 8.6 years. They were divided into two groups according to their age, (Group 1 < =8 years had 18 (47%) patients, while group 2 (9-15 years) had 20 (53%) patients. Motor vehicle related injuries were the most common (61%) in Group 1 while it was sporting injuries (50%) in group 2. All patients in group 1 had upper cervical injury (C0-C2) while subaxial injuries were most common in group 2 (66.6%). 82% of the patients had 2 or more PECARN risk factors. 18 children (47%) had normal neurological assessment at presentation, 6 (16%) had radicular symptoms, 11 (29%) could not be assessed as they had already been intubated due to the severity of the injury, 3 (8%) had incomplete cord injury. 29 (69%) patients had normal neurological assessment at final follow up and 2 children died from their injuries. Conclusion Our study confirms that younger children sustain upper cervical injuries most commonly secondary to motor vehicle accidents, while the older sustain subaxial injuries from sporting activities. The significant prevalence of the PECARN risk factors among this cohort of patients have led to them being incorporated into a protocol at these hospitals used to assess patients with suspected cervical spinal injury.

Ethyl 1-(2-cyanoethyl)-3,5-dimethyl-1H-indole-2-carboxylate

The title compound, C16H18N2O2, is an important precursor in the synthesis of 1,2,3,4-tetrahydropyrazinoindoles, which show excellent antihistamine, antihypertensive and central nervous system depressant properties. The carbethoxy group attached to C2 and the planar cyanoethyl group attached to N1 make dihedral angles of 11.0(4) and 75.0(3)degrees, respectively, with the mean plane of the indole ring, The C-C=N chain is linear with a bond angle of 179.3 (4)degrees.

Adenosine-5'-carboxylic Acid

The two molecules in the asymmetric unit of adenosine-5'-carboxylic acid, C10H11N5O5, exist as zwitterions with N1 protonated and the carboxyl groups ionized. Both molecules are in an anti conformation with glycosyl torsion angles of -161.4(3) and -155.5(3)degrees. The ribose moieties adopt a C3-endo-C2-exo twist conformation. The pseudo-rotation parameters are P = 0.01(1) and 6.58(1)degrees, and tau(m) = 36.2(2) and 34.6(2)degrees, for molecules A and B, respectively. The carboxyl groups of A and B are not in the standard g(+), g(-) or t conformations. Both Watson-Crick sites, N1 and N6, of the adenine bases are involved in a pair of hydrogen bonds with the dissociated carboxyl groups, forming a cyclic tetramer. The adenine base of molecule A stacks on the ribose O4' atom of a symmetry-related B molecule at a distance of 2.88 Angstrom; the adenine base of B stacks in an analogous way at a distance of 2.91 Angstrom.

Reliable stabilization using a multi-controller configuration

Given a plant P, we consider the problem of designing a pair of controllers C1 and C2 such that their sum stabilizes P, and in addition, each of them also stabilizes P should the other one fail. This is referred to as the reliable stabilization problem. It is shown that every strongly stabilizable plant can be reliably stabilized; moreover, one of the two controllers can be specified arbitrarily, subject only to the constraint that it should be stable. The stabilization technique is extended to reliable regulation.

Studies in Nonlinear Optical Materials: Structure of 3-Menthyl 2-[Bis(dimethylarnino)methylene]-3-oxobutyrate Hemihydrate

C 19Ha4N203.~xH 2 O, Mr= 347.5, monoclinic, C2, a = 15.473 (3), b = 6.963 (2), c = 20.708 (4) ]1, //=108.2(2) ° , V=2119(2)A 3, Z=4, Ox= 1.089 Mg m -3, ,~(Cu Ktx) = 1.5418 ]1, p = 0.523 mm -~, F(000) = 760.0, T= 293 K, R = 0.068 for 1967 unique reflections. The C=C bond length is 1-447 (6)]1, significantly longer than in ethylene, 1.336 (2)]1. The crystal structure is stabilized by O-H...O hydrogen bonding. Explanation for the observed low second-harmonic-generation efficiency (0.5 times that of urea) is provided.

The effects of holding space on growth and survival of individually reared three-spot crab (Portunus sanguinolentus).

The problem of cannibalism in communally reared crabs can be eliminated by separating the growing crabs into holding compartments. There is currently no information on optimal compartment size for growing crabs individually. 136 second instar crablets (Portunus sanguinolentus) (C2 ca. 7-10 mm carapace width (CW)) were grown for 90 days in 10 different-sized opaque and transparent walled acrylic compartments. The base area for each compartment ranged from small (32 mm × 32 mm) to large (176 mm × 176 mm). Effects of holding space and wall transparency on survival, CW, moult increment, intermoult period and average weekly gain (AWG) were examined. Most crabs reached instars C9-C10 (50-70 mm CW) by the end of experiment. The final survival rate in the smallest compartment was 25% mainly due to moult-related mortality predominantly occurring at the C9 instar. However, crabs in these smaller compartments had earlier produced significantly larger moult increments from instar to instar than those in the larger compartments (P < 0.05). Crabs in the smaller compartments (<65 mm × 65 mm) also showed significantly longer moult periods (P < 0.05). The net result was that AWG in CW was 5.22 mm week-1 for the largest compartment and 5.15 mm week-1 in smallest and did not differ significantly between compartment size groups (P = 0.916). Wall transparency had no impact on survival (P = 0.530) but a slight impact on AWG (P = 0.014). Survival rate was the best indicator of minimum acceptable compartment size (?43 mm × 43 mm) for C10 crablets because below this size death occurred before growth rate was significantly affected. For further growth, it would be necessary to transfer the crablets to larger compartments.

Stocking density and artificial habitat influence stock structure and yield from intensive nursery systems for mud crabs Scylla serrata (Forsskål 1775)

Intensive nursery systems are designed to culture mud crab postlarvae through a critical phase in preparation for stocking into growout systems. This study investigated the influence of stocking density and provision of artificial habitat on the yield of a cage culture system. For each of three batches of postlarvae, survival, growth and claw loss were assessed after each of three nursery phases ending at crab instars C1/C2, C4/C5 and C7/C8. Survival through the first phase was highly variable among batches with a maximum survival of 80% from megalops to a mean crab instar of 1.5. Stocking density between 625 and 2300 m-2 did not influence survival or growth in this first phase. Stocking densities tested in phases 2 and 3 were 62.5, 125 and 250 m -2. At the end of phases 2 and 3, there were five instar stages present, representing a more than 20-fold size disparity within the populations. Survival became increasingly density-sensitive following the first phase, with higher densities resulting in significantly lower survival (phase 2: 63% vs. 79%; phase 3: 57% vs. 64%). The addition of artificial habitat in the form of pleated netting significantly improved survival at all densities. The mean instar attained by the end of phase 2 was significantly larger at a lower stocking density and without artificial habitat. No significant effect of density or habitat on harvest size was detected in phase 3. The highest incidence of claw loss was 36% but was reduced by lowering stocking densities and addition of habitat. For intensive commercial production, yield can be significantly increased by addition of a simple net structure but rapidly decreases the longer crablets remain in the nursery.

Structures of mannose-6-phosphate isomerase from Salmonella typhimurium bound to metal atoms and substrate: implications for catalytic mechanism

Mannose-6-phosphate isomerase (MPI) catalyzes the inter-conversion of mannose 6-phosphate and fructose 6-phosphate. X-ray crystal structures of MPI from Salmonella typhimurium in the apo form (with no metal bound) and in the holo form (with bound Zn2+) and two other structures with yttrium bound at an inhibitory site and complexed with Zn2+ and fructose 6-phosphate (F6P) were determined in order to gain insights into the structure and the isomerization mechanism. Isomerization involves acid/base catalysis with proton transfer between the C1 and C2 atoms of the substrate. His99, Lys132, His131 and Asp270 are close to the substrate and are likely to be the residues involved in proton transfer. The interactions observed at the active site suggest that the ring-opening step is probably catalyzed by His99 and Asp270. An active-site loop consisting of residues 130-133 undergoes conformational changes upon substrate binding. Zn2+ binding induces structural order in the loop consisting of residues 50-54. The metal atom appears to play a role in substrate binding and is probably also important for maintaining the architecture of the active site. Isomerization probably follows the previously suggested cis-enediol mechanism.

Structure of the disodium salt of glucose 1-phosphate hydrate, 2Na+.C6H11O9P2-.3.5H2O

Mr= 367.2, monoclinic, C2, a = 8.429 (1),b= 10.184(2), c= 16.570(2)A, /~= 99.18 (1) °, U= 1404.2 A 3, z = 4, D m = 1.73, D x = 1.74 Mg m -3,Cu K~, 2 = 1.5418 A, g = 2.99 mm -1, F(000) = 764,T= 300K, final R for 1524 observed reflections is0.069. The endocyclic C-O bonds in the glucose ring are nearly equal with C(5)-O(5)= 1.445 (10) and C(1)-O(5)= 1.424(10). The pyranose sugar ring adopts a 4C 1 chair conformation. The conformation about the exocyclic C(5)-C(6) bond is gauche-gauche, in contrast to gauche-trans observed in the structure of the dipotassium salt of glucose 1-phosphate. The phosphate ester bond, P-O(1), is 1.641 (6)A, slightly longer than the 'high-energy' P-,.O bond in the monopotassium salt of phosphoenolpyruvate [1.612 (6)A]. Two sodium ions are six coordinated while the third has only five neighbours.

Handpumps: problems and search for remedies

This paper gives a brief survey of research and development work done on hand pumps in India as well as elsewhere and sets out the approach adopted by ASTRA Working Group. Ten ways in which a hand pump breakdown in practice have been identified. The physical reasons behind each type of breakdown analysed. Remedial measures have been developed from this analysis. Laboratory test rigs fabricated to evaluate these measures have been described and some experimental results presented. The course of further work has been charted.

In Situ Phase Separation Following Dehydration in Bimetallic Sulfates: A Variable-Temperature X-Ray Diffraction Study

Phase separation resulting in a single-crystal-single-crystal transition accompanied by a polycrystalline phase following the dehydration of hydrated bimetallic sulfates [Na2Mn1.167(SO4)(2)S0.33O1.167 center dot 2H(2)O and K4Cd3-(SO4)(5)center dot 3H(2)O] has been investigated by in situ variable-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. With two examples, we illustrate the possibility of generating structural frameworks following dehydration in bimetallic sulfates, which refer to the possible precursor phases at that temperature leading to the mineral formation. The room-temperature structure of Na2Mn1.167(SO4)(2)S0.33O1.167 center dot 2H(2)O is trigonal, space group R (3) over bar. On heating the crystal in situ on the diffractometer, the diffraction images display spherical spots and concentric rings suggesting phase separation, with the spherical spots getting indexed in a monoclinic space group, C2/c. The structure determination based on this data suggests the formation of Na2Mn(SO4)(2). However, the diffraction images from concentric rings could not be indexed. In the second example, the room-temperature structure is determined to be K4Cd3(SO4)(5)center dot 3H(2)O, crystallizing in a monoclinic space group, P2(1)/n. On heating the crystal in situ, the diffraction images collected also have both spherical spots and diffuse rings. The spherical spots could be indexed to a cubic crystal system, space group P2(1)3, and the structure is K4Cd3(SO4)(3). The possible mechanism for the phase transition in the dehydration regime resulting in this remarkable single-crystal to single-crystal transition with the appearance of a surrogate polycrystalline phase is proposed.

A composition dependent thermal behavior of GexSe35-xTe65 glasses

Alternating differential scanning calorimetric (ADSC) studies have been performed to understand the thermal behavior of bulk GexSe35-xTe65 glasses (17 <= x <= 25); it is found that the glasses with x <= 20 exhibit two crystallization exotherms (T-c1 & T-c2). On the other hand, those with x >= 20.5, show a single crystallization reaction upon heating. The exothermic reaction at T-c1 has been found to correspond to the partial crystallization of the glass into hexagonal Te and the reaction at T-c2 is associated with the additional crystallization of rhombohedral Ge-Te phase. The glass transition temperature of GexSe35-xTe65 glasses is found to show a linear but not-steep increase, indicating a progressive, but a gradual increase in network connectivity with Ge addition. It is also found that T-c1 of GexSe35-xTe65 glasses with x <= 20, increases progressively with Ge content and eventually merges with T-c2 at x approximate to 20.5 (< r > = 2.41); this behavior has been understood on the basis of the reduction in Te-Te bonds of lower energy and increase in Ge-Te bonds of higher energy, with increasing Ge content. Apart from the interesting composition dependent crystallization, an anomalous melting behavior is also exhibited by the GexSe35-xTe65 glasses.