Evaluating Prediction Rules for t-Year Survivors With Censored Regression Models

Suppose that we are interested in establishing simple, but reliable rules for predicting future t-year survivors via censored regression models. In this article, we present inference procedures for evaluating such binary classification rules based on various prediction precision measures quantified by the overall misclassification rate, sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Specifically, under various working models we derive consistent estimators for the above measures via substitution and cross validation estimation procedures. Furthermore, we provide large sample approximations to the distributions of these nonsmooth estimators without assuming that the working model is correctly specified. Confidence intervals, for example, for the difference of the precision measures between two competing rules can then be constructed. All the proposals are illustrated with two real examples and their finite sample properties are evaluated via a simulation study.

Quality of life of survivors of paediatric intensive care

OBJECTIVE: The mortality rate in paediatric intensive care units (PICU) has fallen over the last two decades. More advanced treatment is offered to children with life-threatening disease and there is substantial interest in knowing whether long term outcome and quality of life after intensive care are acceptable. SETTING: 12-bed paediatric and neonatal intensive care unit. INTERVENTION: Prospective follow-up study with telephone interview 1 and 2 years after discharge. METHODS: Four domains of quality of life (physical function, role function, social-emotional function and health problem) were recorded by calculating the health state classification (HSC) index. Outcome was classified good (HSC 1.0-0.7), moderate (HSC 0.69-0.3), poor (HSC 0.29-0) and very poor (HSC <0). RESULTS: 661 patients were admitted to the PICU in the year 2001 with a mortality within the unit of 3.9%. Over 2 years follow-up there were 21 additional deaths (3.2%). 574 patients could be followed up after 1 year and 464 patients after 2 years. After two years the outcome was good in 77%, moderate in 15% and poor in 8%. Patients with respiratory disease had the best outcome, similar to those admitted for neurological and medical reasons. Patients admitted for postoperative care and for cardiovascular disease had a poorer quality of life. 31% of the children had preexisting health care problems and 21% of all patients had new chronic disease after intensive care. CONCLUSION: The majority of survivors admitted to the PICU have a good outcome. The overall mortality rate doubled if assessed two years after discharge.

Quality of life in stroke survivors after local intra-arterial thrombolysis

Background: We aimed to assess quality of life (QOL) and its predictors in stroke survivors after local intra-arterial thrombolysis (IAT) as well as to measure QOL according to the site of pretreatment vessel occlusion. Methods: From January 2000 to April 2004, 175 consecutive patients underwent IAT for acute ischemic stroke. Clinical and radiological data were collected prospectively. We contacted 135 stroke survivors after a mean of 923 (+/-431) days, 132 responded. QOL, assessed with EuroQol (EQ-5D), and functional abilities, measured with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and the Barthel Index, were compared, and predictors of QOL were analyzed. Results: Measured with EQ-5D, 56% of the patients reported a good QOL (EQ-5D Index >/=70). Low mRS and high Barthel Index scores at follow-up were associated with better overall QOL (Kendall's tau >0.5). Nevertheless, 25% of the functionally independent patients (mRS 0-2) indicated a markedly impaired QOL (EQ-5D Index <70) and 10% of disabled patients indicated good QOL. QOL was significantly lower in patients with occlusion of the internal carotid artery compared to patients with occlusion of the basilar artery or the M1, M2 or M3/4 segment of the middle cerebral artery (EQ-5D Index: p = 0.005). A high National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score on admission and occlusion of the internal carotid artery were independent predictors of impaired QOL (p < 0.05). Conclusion: More than half of the stroke survivors treated with IAT reported a good QOL, mostly survivors with mild disabilities. QOL assessment gives information that is not provided by traditional outcome scores. Our results support guidelines to measure QOL in stroke research. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Obesity in long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

BACKGROUND: Childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) with current cure rates reaching 80% emphasizes the necessity to determine treatment related long-term effects. The present study examines the prevalence of and the risk factors for overweight and obesity in a cohort of ALL survivors treated and living in the French speaking part of Switzerland. METHODS: In this retrospective two-center study, height and weight of 54 patients diagnosed with ALL in first complete remission and treated with chemotherapy only were recorded at specified time points during treatment and off-therapy. Body mass index (BMI) and its age- and gender-adjusted standard deviation score (BMI-SDS) were calculated for the patients and their parents separately. Overweight and obesity were defined by a threshold of BMI-SDS >1.645 and BMI-SDS >1.96, respectively. RESULTS: At last follow-up, 16 (30%) of the 54 survivors were overweight and 10 (18%) were obese. The off-treatment period was most at risk with 11 of the 16 becoming overweight and 9 of the 10 becoming obese during that period. Overweight/obesity at diagnosis and abnormal maternal BMI were significantly associated with abnormal weight at follow-up, while age at diagnosis, gender, cumulative dose of steroids and paternal BMI showed no association. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with published evidence from other regions of the developed and developing world, there is a significant prevalence of obesity in young ALL survivors in the French speaking part of Switzerland. Factors significantly associated with this late effect were mostly related to the familial background rather than to the treatment components.

Electron microscopy of high pressure frozen samples: bridging the gap between cellular ultrastructure and atomic resolution

Transmission electron microscopy has provided most of what is known about the ultrastructural organization of tissues, cells, and organelles. Due to tremendous advances in crystallography and magnetic resonance imaging, almost any protein can now be modeled at atomic resolution. To fully understand the workings of biological "nanomachines" it is necessary to obtain images of intact macromolecular assemblies in situ. Although the resolution power of electron microscopes is on the atomic scale, in biological samples artifacts introduced by aldehyde fixation, dehydration and staining, but also section thickness reduces it to some nanometers. Cryofixation by high pressure freezing circumvents many of the artifacts since it allows vitrifying biological samples of about 200 mum in thickness and immobilizes complex macromolecular assemblies in their native state in situ. To exploit the perfect structural preservation of frozen hydrated sections, sophisticated instruments are needed, e.g., high voltage electron microscopes equipped with precise goniometers that work at low temperature and digital cameras of high sensitivity and pixel number. With them, it is possible to generate high resolution tomograms, i.e., 3D views of subcellular structures. This review describes theory and applications of the high pressure cryofixation methodology and compares its results with those of conventional procedures. Moreover, recent findings will be discussed showing that molecular models of proteins can be fitted into depicted organellar ultrastructure of images of frozen hydrated sections. High pressure freezing of tissue is the base which may lead to precise models of macromolecular assemblies in situ, and thus to a better understanding of the function of complex cellular structures.

Measuring the elastic modulus of polymers using the atomic force microscope

Testing a new method of nanoindentation using the atomic force microscope (AFM) was the purpose of this research. Nanoindentation is a useful technique to study the properties of materials on the sub-micron scale. The AFM has been used as a nanoindenter previously; however several parameters needed to obtain accurate results, including tip radius and cantilever sensitivity, can be difficult to determine. To solve this problem, a new method to determine the elastic modulus of a material using the atomic force microscope (AFM) has been proposed by Tang et al. This method models the cantilever and the sample as two springs in a series. The ratio of the cantilever spring constant (k) to diameter of the tip (2a) is treated in the model as one parameter (α=k/2a). The value of a, along with the cantilever sensitivity, are determined on two reference samples with known mechanical properties and then used to find the elastic modulus of an unknown sample. To determine the reliability and accuracy of this technique, it was tested on several polymers. Traditional depth-sensing nanoindentation was preformed for comparison. The elastic modulus values from the AFM were shown to be statistically similar to the nanoindenter results for three of the five samples tested.

Quality of life in survivors after cervical artery dissection

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Little data exists about longterm outcome, quality of life (QOL) and its predictors after spontaneous cervical artery dissections (sCAD). METHODS: Clinical and radiological data of 114 patients with sCAD were collected prospectively. Six patients died within 3 months, the remaining 108 were contacted after a mean of 1498 days (range: 379-3455), 99 survivors (92 %) replied. QOL, assessed with the stroke-specific QOL scale (SSQOL), and functional abilities, measured with modified Rankin Scale (mRS) were compared, and predictors of QOL were analyzed. Subgroup analyses were performed for patients with ischemic stroke, those with isolated local symptoms or transient ischemic symptoms and those without significant disabilities (mRS 0-1) at follow-up. RESULTS: Seventy-one of 99 patients (72 %) had no significant disability, but only 53 (54 %) reported a good QOL (SS-QOL > or = 4). Compared to the self-rated premorbid QOL of all patients, SS-QOL was impaired after sCAD (p < 0.001); impairment of QOL was observed in patients with ischemic stroke (p < 0.001), in patients with isolated local or transient ischemic symptoms (p < 0.038) and those without significant disabilities at follow-up (p = 0.013). Nevertheless, low mRS was associated with better overall QOL (Kendall's tau > 0.5). High National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score on admission and higher age were independent predictors of impaired QOL (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: QOL is impaired in almost half of long-term survivors after sCAD, even in patients with local or transient symptoms or without functional disability. Impairment of QOL is a surprisingly frequent long-term sequela after sCAD and deserves attention as an outcome measure in these patients.

Cellular senescence of white blood cells in very long-term survivors after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: the role of chronic graft-versus-host disease and female donor sex

In this single-center, cross-sectional study, we evaluated 44 very long-term survivors with a median follow-up of 17.5 years (range, 11-26 years) after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. We assessed the telomere length difference in human leukocyte antigen-identical donor and recipient sibling pairs and searched for its relationship with clinical factors. The telomere length (in kb, mean +/- SD) was significantly shorter in all recipient blood cells compared with their donors' blood cells (P < .01): granulocytes (6.5 +/- 0.9 vs 7.1 +/- 0.9), naive/memory T cells (5.7 +/- 1.2 vs 6.6 +/- 1.2; 5.2 +/- 1.0 vs 5.7 +/- 0.9), B cells (7.1 +/- 1.1 vs 7.8 +/- 1.1), and natural killer/natural killer T cells (4.8 +/- 1.0 vs 5.6 +/- 1.3). Chronic graft-versus-host disease (P < .04) and a female donor (P < .04) were associated with a greater difference in telomere length between donor and recipient. Critically short telomeres have been described in degenerative diseases and secondary malignancies. If this hypothesis can be confirmed, identification of recipients at risk for cellular senescence could become part of monitoring long-term survivors after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Survivors with bad outcome after hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy: full-term neonates compare unfavourably with children

Hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) is of major importance in neonatal and paediatric intensive care with regard to mortality and long-term morbidity. Our aim was to analyse our data in full-term neonates and children with special regard to withdrawal of life support and bad outcome. PATIENTS: All patients with HIE admitted to our unit from 1992-96 were analysed. Criteria for HIE were presence of a hypoxic insult followed by coma or altered consciousness with or without convulsions. Severity of HIE was assessed in neonates using Sarnat stages, and in children the duration of coma. In the majority of cases staging was completed with electrophysiological studies. Outcome was described using the Glasgow Outcome Scale. Bad outcome was defined as death, permanent vegetative state or severe disability, good outcome as moderate disability or good recovery. RESULTS: In the neonatal group (n = 38) outcome was significantly associated with Sarnat stages, presence of convulsions, severely abnormal EEG, cardiovascular failure, and multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). A bad outcome was observed in 27 cases with 14 deaths and 13 survivors. Supportive treatment was withdrawn in 14 cases with 9 subsequent deaths. In the older age group (n = 45) outcome was related to persistent coma of 24-48 h, severely abnormal EEG, cardiovascular failure, liver dysfunction and MOD. A bad outcome was found in 36 cases with 33 deaths and 3 survivors. Supportive treatment was withdrawn in 15 instances, all followed by death. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, neonates and older patients did not differ with regard to good or bad outcome. However, in the neonatal group there were significantly more survivors with bad outcome, either overall or after withdrawal of support. Possible explanations for this difference include variability of hypoxic insult, maturational and metabolic differences, and the more compliant neonatal skull, which prevents brainstem herniation.