An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Exact results for a tunnel-coupled pair of trapped Bose-Einstein condensates

A model describing coherent quantum tunnelling between two trapped Bose-Einstein condensates is discussed. It is not well known that the model admits an exact solution, obtained some time ago, with the energy spectrum derived through the algebraic Bethe ansatz. An asymptotic analysis of the Bethe ansatz equations leads us to explicit expressions for the energies of the ground and the first excited states in the limit of weak tunnelling and all energies for strong tunnelling. The results are used to extract the asymptotic limits of the quantum fluctuations of the boson number difference between the two Bose-Einstein condensates and to characterize the degree of coherence in the system.

Bovine-serum-albumin-containing receptor phase better predicts transdermal absorption parameters for lipophilic compounds

Based on the hypothesis that limited receptor solubility of lipophilic compounds may result in lower observed permeability parameters, the aim of this study was to determine the in vitro human epidermal permeability coefficients and membrane retention of a series of aliphatic alcohols (C1-C10, log p -0.72 to 4.06) using two different receptor solutions (water and 4% bovine serum albumin in phosphate-buffered saline). Aqueous solutions of radiolabeled alcohols were dosed into the stratum corneum side of membranes mounted in side-by-side glass diffusion cells. Appearance of alcohol in the receptor compartment filled with either of the two solutions was monitored over a 7 h period when both stratum corneum (assessed by tape stripping) and the remaining epidermis levels of radioactivity were determined. In a separate study the degree of binding of alcohols to 4% bovine serum albumin was determined. The data showed increased receptor phase solubility in the bovine serum albumin solution and higher permeability coefficients for the more lipophilic alcohols in the series. No changes were seen in the partitioning of the alcohols from the vehicle into either the stratum corneum or tape-stripped epidermis with the two receptor phases; however, a decrease in the amount of the more lipophilic alcohols partitioning into the water receptor phase from the tape-stripped epidermis was observed. We conclude that bovine serum albumin receptor phase allows better estimation of real permeability parameters for lipophilic compounds due to its increased solubility capacity and we question whether permeability parameters for lipophilic solutes from older data sets based on aqueous receptor phases are completely reliable.

Determination of the effect of lipophilicity on the in vitro permeability and tissue reservoir characteristics of topically applied solutes in human skin layers

In order to establish the relationship between solute lipophilicity and skin penetration (including flux and concentration behavior), we examined the in vitro penetration and membrane concentration of a series of homologous alcohols (C2-C10) applied topically in aqueous solutions to human epidermal, full-thickness, and dermal membranes. The partitioning/distribution of each alcohol between the donor solution, stratum corneum, viable epidermis, dermis, and receptor phase compartments was determined during the penetration process and separately to isolated samples of each tissue type. Maximum flux and permeability coefficients are compared for each membrane and estimates of alcohol diffusivity are made based on flux/concentration data and also the related tissue resistance (the reciprocal of permeability coefficient) for each membrane type. The permeability coefficient increased with increasing lipophilicity to alcohol C8 (octanol) with no further increase for C10 (decanol). Log vehicle:stratum corneum partition coefficients were related to logP , and the concentration of alcohols in each of the tissue layers appeared to increase with lipophilicity. No difference was measured in the diffusivity of smaller more polar alcohols in the three membranes; however, the larger more lipophilic solutes showed slower diffusivity values. The study showed that the dermis may be a much more lipophilic environment than originally believed and that distribution of smaller nonionized solutes into local tissues below a site of topical application may be estimated based on knowledge of their lipophilicity alone.

A coupled knowledge-based expert system for design of liquid-retaining structures

This paper describes a coupled knowledge-based system (KBS) for the design of liquid-retaining structures, which can handle both the symbolic knowledge processing based on engineering heuristics in the preliminary synthesis stage and the extensive numerical crunching involved in the detailed analysis stage. The prototype system is developed by employing blackboard architecture and a commercial shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO. Its present scope covers design of three types of liquid-retaining structures, namely, a rectangular shape with one compartment, a rectangular shape with two compartments and a circular shape. Through custom-built interactive graphical user interfaces, the user is directed throughout the design process, which includes preliminary design, load specification, model generation, finite element analysis, code compliance checking and member sizing optimization. It is also integrated with various relational databases that provide the system with sectional properties, moment and shear coefficients and final member details. This system can act as a consultant to assist novice designers in the design of liquid-retaining structures with increase in efficiency and optimization of design output and automated record keeping. The design of a typical example of the liquid-retaining structure is also illustrated. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Winding patterns for actively shielded shim coils with asymmetric target-fields

A method is presented for calculating the currents and winding patterns required to design independent zonal and tesseral shim coils for magnetic resonance imaging. Both actively shielded and unshielded configurations are considered, and the region of interest can be located asymmetrically with respect to the coil's length. Streamline, target-field and Fourier-series methods are utilized. The desired target-field is specified at two cylindrical radii, on and inside a circular conducting cylinder of length 2L and radius a. The specification is over some asymmetric portion pL < z < qL of the coil's length (-1 < p < q < 1). Arbitrary functions are used in the outer sections, -L < z < pL and qL < z < L, to ensure continuity of the magnetic field across the entire length of the coil. The entire field is then periodically extended as a half-range cosine Fourier series about either end of the coil. The resultant Fourier coefficients are then substituted into the Fourier-series expressions for the internal and external magnetic fields, and current densities and stream functions on both the primary coil and shield. A contour plot of the stream function directly gives the required coil winding patterns. Spherical harmonic analysis and shielding analysis on field calculations from a ZX shim coil indicate that example designs and theory are well matched.

Water table waves in an unconfined aquifer: Experiments and modeling

[1] Comprehensive measurements are presented of the piezometric head in an unconfined aquifer during steady, simple harmonic oscillations driven by a hydrostatic clear water reservoir through a vertical interface. The results are analyzed and used to test existing hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic, small-amplitude theories along with capillary fringe effects. As expected, the amplitude of the water table wave decays exponentially. However, the decay rates and phase lags indicate the influence of both vertical flow and capillary effects. The capillary effects are reconciled with observations of water table oscillations in a sand column with the same sand. The effects of vertical flows and the corresponding nonhydrostatic pressure are reasonably well described by small-amplitude theory for water table waves in finite depth aquifers. That includes the oscillation amplitudes being greater at the bottom than at the top and the phase lead of the bottom compared with the top. The main problems with respect to interpreting the measurements through existing theory relate to the complicated boundary condition at the interface between the driving head reservoir and the aquifer. That is, the small-amplitude, finite depth expansion solution, which matches a hydrostatic boundary condition between the bottom and the mean driving head level, is unrealistic with respect to the pressure variation above this level. Hence it cannot describe the finer details of the multiple mode behavior close to the driving head boundary. The mean water table height initially increases with distance from the forcing boundary but then decreases again, and its asymptotic value is considerably smaller than that previously predicted for finite depth aquifers without capillary effects. Just as the mean water table over-height is smaller than predicted by capillarity-free shallow aquifer models, so is the amplitude of the second harmonic. In fact, there is no indication of extra second harmonics ( in addition to that contained in the driving head) being generated at the interface or in the interior.

Chemical characterisation of deep profile Ferrosols under sugarcane in wet tropical northern Queensland

The chemical properties of deep profile samples ( up to 12 m) of Ferrosols from northern Queensland were investigated to provide an understanding of the accumulation of nitrate ( NO3) within these soil profiles. The influence of other cations and anions present in the soil solution or on the exchange and the charge chemistry of the profiles were examined with respect to the NO3 accumulations. The major ions in the soil solution were Na, NO3, and chloride ( Cl). Distinct regions of anion accumulation were observed; SO4 accumulated in the upper profile of all cores, whereas NO3 and Cl accumulations were restricted to the lower profile of cores with appreciable AEC (> 1 cmol(c)/kg). Gaines-Thomas selectivity coefficients were used to indicate exchange preference for cations and anions, and are as follows: Al > Ca similar to Mg > K > Na and sulfate (SO4) > Cl similar to NO3. The selectivity of SO4 increased and the extractable SO4 decreased in the lower profile of all cores. This has important implications for the adsorption of NO3 and Cl. The NO3 and Cl accumulations were shown to correspond to a region of low SO4 occupancy of the exchange sites in the lower profile. Along with the high SO4 selectivity, this suggests that SO4 may control the positioning of the NO3 accumulations. It was concluded that the NO3 accumulations were relatively stable under current management practices, although the reduction in NO3 inputs would likely see the gradual replacement of NO3 with Cl as a result of their comparable selectivity for exchange sites.

Evaluating a model of parental influence on youth physical activity

Objective: To test a conceptual model linking parental physical activity orientations, parental support for physical activity, and children's self-efficacy perceptions with physical activity participation. Participants and Setting: The sample consisted of 380 students in grades 7 through 12 (mean age, 14.0 +/- 1.6 years) and their parents. Data collection took place during the fall of 1996. Main Outcome Measures: Parents completed a questionnaire assessing their physical activity habits, enjoyment of physical activity, beliefs regarding the importance of physical activity, and supportive behaviors for their child's physical activity. Students completed a 46-item inventory assessing physical activity during the previous 7 days and a 5-item physical activity self-efficacy scale. The model was tested via observed variable path analysis using structural equation modeling techniques (AMOS 4.0). Results: An initial model, in which parent physical activity orientations predicted child physical activity via parental support and child self-efficacy, did not provide an acceptable fit to the data. Inclusion of a direct path from parental support to child physical activity and deletion of a nonsignificant path from parental physical activity to child physical activity significantly improved model fit. Standardized path coefficients for the revised model ranged from 0.17 to 0.24, and all were significant at the p < 0.0001 level. Conclusions: Parental support was an important correlate of youth physical activity, acting directly or indirectly through its influence on self-efficacy. Physical activity interventions targeted at youth should include and evaluate the efficacy of individual-level and community-level strategies to increase parents' capacity to provide instrumental and motivational support for their children's physical activity.

Water sorption into poly[(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate)-co-(1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone]at 310 K

Poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) and copolymers of 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) and 1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone (VP) in the form of cylindrical samples (approximate to8mm x 20mm) have been prepared and the sorption of water into these cylinders has been studied by the mass-uptake methods and by magnetic-resonance imaging. The equilibrium water contents for the cylinders were found to vary systematically with the copolymer composition. Diffusion of water into the cylinders was found to follow Fickian behaviour for cylinders with high HEMA contents, with the diffusion coefficients obtained from mass-uptake studies dependent on the copolymer composition, varying from 1.7 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1) for poly(HEMA) to 2.0 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1) for poly(HEMA-co-VP) with a composition of 1:1. However, NMR-imaging studies showed that, while the profiles of the water diffusion fronts for cylinders with high HEMA contents were Fickian, that for the 1:1 copolymer was not and indicated that the mechanism was Case III. The polymers which were rich in VP were characterized by a water-sorption process which follows Case-III behaviour. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Influence of shapes of selected vegetable materials on drying kinetics during fluidized bed drying

Three different particular geometrical shapes of parallelepiped, cylinder and sphere were taken from cut green beans (length:diameter = 1:1, 2:1 and 3:1) and potatoes (aspect ratio = 1:1, 2:1 and 3:1) and peas, respectively. Their drying behaviour in a fluidised bed was studied at three different drying temperatures of 30, 40 and 50 degreesC (RH = 15%). Drying curves were constructed using non-dimensional moisture ratio (MR) and time and their behaviour was modelled using exponential (MR = exp(-kt)) and Page (MR = exp(-kt(n))) models. The effective diffusion coefficient of moisture transfer was determined by Fickian method using uni- and three-dimensional moisture movements. The diffusion coefficient was least affected by the size when the moisture movement was considered three-dimensional, whereas the drying temperature had a significative effect on diffusivity as expected. The drying constant and diffusivity coefficients were on the descending order for potato, beans and peas. The Arrhenius activation energy for the peas was also highest, indicating a strong barrier to moisture movement in peas as compared to beans and skinless cut potato pieces. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular transport in nanopores

Simulation of the transport of methane in cylindrical silica mesopores have been performed using equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) as well as dual control volume grand canonical molecular dynamics methods. It is demonstrated that all three techniques yield the same transport coefficient even in the presence of viscous flow. A modified locally averaged density model for viscous flow, combined with consideration of wall slip through a frictional condition, gives a convincing interpretation of the variation of the transport coefficient over a wide range of densities, and for various pore sizes and temperatures. Wall friction coefficients extracted from NEMD simulations are found to be consistent with momentum transfer arguments, and the approach is shown to be more meaningful than the classical slip length concept. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Pseudo-randomness of round-off errors in discretized linear maps on the plane

We analyze the sequences of round-off errors of the orbits of a discretized planar rotation, from a probabilistic angle. It was shown [Bosio & Vivaldi, 2000] that for a dense set of parameters, the discretized map can be embedded into an expanding p-adic dynamical system, which serves as a source of deterministic randomness. For each parameter value, these systems can generate infinitely many distinct pseudo-random sequences over a finite alphabet, whose average period is conjectured to grow exponentially with the bit-length of the initial condition (the seed). We study some properties of these symbolic sequences, deriving a central limit theorem for the deviations between round-off and exact orbits, and obtain bounds concerning repetitions of words. We also explore some asymptotic problems computationally, verifying, among other things, that the occurrence of words of a given length is consistent with that of an abstract Bernoulli sequence.

Variação radial da retratibilidade e densidade básica da madeira de Eucalyptus saligna Sm.

A ultra-estrutura e a composição química da madeira, bem como suas propriedades físicas e mecânicas, variam significativamente entre espécies, entre árvores de uma mesma espécie e, mesmo, entre diferentes partes de uma mesma árvore. Com este trabalho objetivou-se o estudo dos parâmetros de retratibilidade e de densidade básica da madeira Eucalyptus saligna, com idade de 16 anos, proveniente de talhões experimentais da EMBRAPA Florestas, de Colombo, Paraná. As amostras foram retiradas à altura do DAP de quatro posições eqüidistantes a partir da medula em direção à periferia, correspondendo a 0, 33, 66 e 100%, com dimensões nominais de 1,0 x 2,0 x 3,0 cm, sendo a última dimensão no sentido longitudinal. Elas foram mantidas em câmara fechada com ventilação, próximo de soluções salinas supersaturadas, com o objetivo de proporcionar diferentes condições de umidade relativa. Uma vez atingidas as distintas condições de umidade de equilíbrio, as amostras foram secas em estufa a 105 ºC e obtidos os dados de retratibilidade e densidade básica da madeira nas posições mencionadas. Constataram-se valores de contração volumétrica mais baixos na região medular, apresentando um acréscimo para as demais posições. Comportamento semelhante foi observado para os coeficientes das contrações lineares nas direções tangencial e radial. O fator anisotrópico foi consideravelmente mais elevado na região medular, decrescendo substancialmente em direção ao alburno. A densidade básica não mostrou sinais efetivos de estabilidade, apesar de mostrar tendência de aumento em direção à periferia do tronco.