Ensemble-based data assimilation and the localisation problem

The “butterfly effect” is a popularly known paradigm; commonly it is said that when a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, it may cause a tornado in Texas. This essentially describes how weather forecasts can be extremely senstive to small changes in the given atmospheric data, or initial conditions, used in computer model simulations. In 1961 Edward Lorenz found, when running a weather model, that small changes in the initial conditions given to the model can, over time, lead to entriely different forecasts (Lorenz, 1963). This discovery highlights one of the major challenges in modern weather forecasting; that is to provide the computer model with the most accurately specified initial conditions possible. A process known as data assimilation seeks to minimize the errors in the given initial conditions and was, in 1911, described by Bjerkness as “the ultimate problem in meteorology” (Bjerkness, 1911).

Remote sensing of intertidal morphological change in Morecambe Bay, U.K., between 1991 and 2007

Tidal Flats are important examples of extensive areas of natural environment that remain relatively unaffected by man. Monitoring of tidal flats is required for a variety of purposes. Remote sensing has become an established technique for the measurement of topography over tidal flats. A further requirement is to measure topographic changes in order to measure sediment budgets. To date there have been few attempts to make quantitative estimates of morphological change over tidal flat areas. This paper illustrates the use of remote sensing to measure quantitative and qualitative changes in the tidal flats of Morecambe Bay during the relatively long period 1991–2007. An understanding of the patterns of sediment transport within the Bay is of considerable interest for coastal management and defence purposes. Tidal asymmetry is considered to be the dominant cause of morphological change in the Bay, with the higher currents associated with the flood tide being the main agency moulding the channel system. Quantitative changes were measured by comparing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the intertidal zone formed using the waterline technique applied to satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from 1991–1994, to a second DEM constructed from airborne laser altimetry data acquired in 2005. Qualitative changes were studied using additional SAR images acquired since 2003. A significant movement of sediment from below Mean Sea Level (MSL) to above MSL was detected by comparing the two Digital Elevation Models, though the proportion of this change that could be ascribed to seasonal effects was not clear. Between 1991 and 2004 there was a migration of the Ulverston channel of the river Leven north-east by about 5 km, followed by the development of a straighter channel to the west, leaving the previous channel decoupled from the river. This is thought to be due to independent tidal and fluvial forcing mechanisms acting on the channel. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing for measurement of long-term morphological change in tidal flat areas. An alternative use of waterlines as partial bathymetry for assimilation into a morphodynamic model of the coastal zone is also discussed.

Progress on “Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability”

The task of assessing the likelihood and extent of coastal flooding is hampered by the lack of detailed information on near-shore bathymetry. This is required as an input for coastal inundation models, and in some cases the variability in the bathymetry can impact the prediction of those areas likely to be affected by flooding in a storm. The constant monitoring and data collection that would be required to characterise the near-shore bathymetry over large coastal areas is impractical, leaving the option of running morphodynamic models to predict the likely bathymetry at any given time. However, if the models are inaccurate the errors may be significant if incorrect bathymetry is used to predict possible flood risks. This project is assessing the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the predictions from a simple model, by rigorously incorporating observations of the bathymetry into the model, to bring the model closer to the actual situation. Currently we are concentrating on Morecambe Bay as a primary study site, as it has a highly dynamic inter-tidal zone, with changes in the course of channels in this zone impacting the likely locations of flooding from storms. We are working with SAR images, LiDAR, and swath bathymetry to give us the observations over a 2.5 year period running from May 2003 – November 2005. We have a LiDAR image of the entire inter-tidal zone for November 2005 to use as validation data. We have implemented a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, to investigate the improvements in performance of the data assimilation compared to the previous scheme which was based on the optimal interpolation method. We are currently evaluating these different data assimilation techniques, using 22 SAR data observations. We will also include the LiDAR data and swath bathymetry to improve the observational coverage, and investigate the impact of different types of observation on the predictive ability of the model. We are also assessing the ability of the data assimilation scheme to recover the correct bathymetry after storm events, which can dramatically change the bathymetry in a short period of time.

HESS Opinions ``Ensembles, uncertainty and flood prediction''

Ensemble predictions are being used more frequently to model the propagation of uncertainty through complex, coupled meteorological, hydrological and coastal models, with the goal of better characterising flood risk. In this paper, we consider the issues that we judge to be important when designing and evaluating ensemble predictions, and make recommendations for the guidance of future research.