Spatial analysis of notified dengue fever infections

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran’s I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Multivariate Markov Process Models for the transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in a hospital ward

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) is a pathogen that continues to be of major concern in hospitals. We develop models and computational schemes based on observed weekly incidence data to estimate MRSA transmission parameters. We extend the deterministic model of McBryde, Pettitt, and McElwain (2007, Journal of Theoretical Biology 245, 470–481) involving an underlying population of MRSA colonized patients and health-care workers that describes, among other processes, transmission between uncolonized patients and colonized health-care workers and vice versa. We develop new bivariate and trivariate Markov models to include incidence so that estimated transmission rates can be based directly on new colonizations rather than indirectly on prevalence. Imperfect sensitivity of pathogen detection is modeled using a hidden Markov process. The advantages of our approach include (i) a discrete valued assumption for the number of colonized health-care workers, (ii) two transmission parameters can be incorporated into the likelihood, (iii) the likelihood depends on the number of new cases to improve precision of inference, (iv) individual patient records are not required, and (v) the possibility of imperfect detection of colonization is incorporated. We compare our approach with that used by McBryde et al. (2007) based on an approximation that eliminates the health-care workers from the model, uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and individual patient data. We apply these models to MRSA colonization data collected in a small intensive care unit at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Australia.

Linking the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the Compendium of Physical Activities : methods and rationale

Background: The 2003 Bureau of Labor Statistics American Time Use Survey (ATUS) contains 438 distinct primary activity variables that can be analyzed with regard to how time is spent by Americans. The Compendium of Physical Activities is used to code physical activities derived from various surveys, logs, diaries, etc to facilitate comparison of coded intensity levels across studies. ------ ----- Methods: This paper describes the methods, challenges, and rationale for linking Compendium estimates of physical activity intensity (METs, metabolic equivalents) with all activities reported in the 2003 ATUS. ----- ----- Results: The assigned ATUS intensity levels are not intended to compute the energy costs of physical activity in individuals. Instead, they are intended to be used to identify time spent in activities broadly classified by type and intensity. This function will complement public health surveillance systems and aid in policy and health-promotion activities. For example, at least one of the future projects of this process is the descriptive epidemiology of time spent in common physical activity intensity categories. ----- ----- Conclusions: The process of metabolic coding of the ATUS by linking it with the Compendium of Physical Activities can make important contributions to our understanding of Americans’ time spent in health-related physical activity.

Diversity of community acquired MRSA carrying the PVL gene in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia

Emergence and dissemination of community acquired methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) strains are being reported with increasing frequency in Australia and worldwide. These strains of CA-MRSA are genetically diverse and distinct in Australia. Genotyping of CA-MRSA using eight highly-discriminatory single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is a rapid and robust method for monitoring the dissemination of these strains in the community. In this study, a SNP genotyping method was used to investigate the molecular epidemiology of 249 community acquired non-multiresistant MRSA (nm-MRSA) isolates over a 12-month period from routine diagnostic specimens. A real-time PCR for the presence of Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) was also performed on these isolates. The CA-MRSA isolates were sourced from a large private laboratory in Brisbane, Australia that serves a wide geographic region encompassing Queensland and Northern New South Wales. This study identified 16 different STs and 98% of the CA-MRSA isolates were positive for the PVL gene. The most common ST was ST93 with 41% of isolates testing positive for this clone.

Active Notch1 confers a transformed phenotype to primary human melanocytes

The importance of mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling in melanoma is underscored by the prevalence of activating mutations in N-Ras and B-Raf, yet clinical development of inhibitors of this pathway has been largely ineffective, suggesting that alternative oncogenes may also promote melanoma. Notch is an interesting candidate that has only been correlated with melanoma development and progression; a thorough assessment of tumor-initiating effects of activated Notch on human melanocytes would clarify the mounting correlative evidence and perhaps identify a novel target for an otherwise untreatable disease. Analysis of a substantial panel of cell lines and patient lesions showed that Notch activity is significantly higher in melanomas than their nontransformed counterparts. The use of a constitutively active, truncated Notch transgene construct (N(IC)) was exploited to determine if Notch activation is a "driving" event in melanocytic transformation or instead a "passenger" event associated with melanoma progression. N(IC)-infected melanocytes displayed increased proliferative capacity and biological features more reminiscent of melanoma, such as dysregulated cell adhesion and migration. Gene expression analyses supported these observations and aided in the identification of MCAM, an adhesion molecule associated with acquisition of the malignant phenotype, as a direct target of Notch transactivation. N(IC)-positive melanocytes grew at clonal density, proliferated in limiting media conditions, and also exhibited anchorage-independent growth, suggesting that Notch alone is a transforming oncogene in human melanocytes, a phenomenon not previously described for any melanoma oncogene. This new information yields valuable insight into the basic epidemiology of melanoma and launches a realm of possibilities for drug intervention in this deadly disease.

Prospective association between physical activity and falls in community-dwelling older women

Abstract Objective: To explore associations between physical activity and risk of falls and broken or fractured bones in community-dwelling older women. Design, setting and participants: This was a prospective observational survey with 3- and 6-year follow-ups. The sample included 8562 healthy, community-dwelling women, aged 70-75 years in 1996, who completed surveys as participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Outcomes were reports of a fall to the ground, injury from a fall, and broken or fractured bones in 1999 and 2002. The main predictor variable was physical activity level in 1996, categorized based on weekly frequency as none/very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Covariates were demographic and health-related variables. Logistic regression models were computed separately for each outcome in 1999 and 2002. Main results: In multivariable models, very high physical activity was associated with decreased risk of a fall in 1999 (odds ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.93) and in 2002 (odds ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.92). High/very high physical activity was associated with decreased risk of broken or fractured bones in 2002 (odds ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.96). No significant association was found between physical activity and injury from a fall. Conclusions: The results suggest that at least daily moderate to vigorous physical activity is required for the primary prevention of falls to the ground and broken or fractured bones in women aged 70-75 years.