967 resultados para winter warming


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This study provides a continuous lateglacial and Holocene record of diatom silica oxygen isotope changes (delta O-18(DIAT)) in a subalpine lake sediment sequence obtained from the Retezat Mts (Taul dintre Brazi, 1740 m a.s.l.). This through-flow, shallow, high-altitude lake with a surface area of only 0.4 ha has short water residence time and is predominantly fed by snowmelt and rainwater. Its delta O-18(DIAT) record principally reflects the oxygen isotope composition of the winter and spring precipitation, as diatom blooms occur mainly in the spring and early summer. Hence, changes in delta O-18(DIAT) are interpreted as seasonal scale changes: in the amount of winter precipitation. Low oxygen isotope values (27-28.5 parts per thousand) occurred during the lateglacial until 12,300 cal BP, followed by a sharp increase thereafter. In the Holocene delta O-18(DIAT) values ranged from 29 to 31 parts per thousand until 3200 cal BP, followed by generally lower values during the late Holocene (27-30 parts per thousand). Short-term decreases in the isotopic values were found between 10,140-9570, 9000-8500, 7800-7300, 6300-5800, 5500-5000 and at 8015, 4400, 4000 cal BP. After 3200 cal BP a decreasing trend was visible with the lowest values between 3100-2500 and after 2100 cal BP The general trend in the record suggests that contribution of winter precipitation was generally lower between 11,680 and 3200 cal BP, followed by increased contribution during the last millennia. The late Holocene decrease in delta O-18(DIAT) shows good agreement with the speleothem delta O-18, lake level and testate amoebae records from the Carpathian Mountains that also display gradual delta O-18 decrease and lake level/mire water table level rise after 3200 cal BR Strong positive correlation with North Atlantic circulation and solar activity proxies, such as the Austrian and Hungarian speleothem records, furthermore suggested that short-term increases in the isotopic ratios in the early and mid Holocene are likely connectable to high solar activity phases and high frequency of positive North Atlantic Oscillation indexes that may have resulted in decreased winter precipitation in this region.

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The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.

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The North Atlantic jet stream during winter 2010 was unusually zonal, so the typically separated Atlantic and African jets were merged into one zonal jet. Moreover, the latitude–height structure and temporal variability of the North Atlantic jet during this winter were more characteristic of the North Pacific. This work examines the possibility of a flow regime change from an eddy-driven to a mixed eddy–thermally driven jet. A monthly jet zonality index is defined, which shows that a persistent merged jet state has occurred in the past, both at the end of the 1960s and during a few sporadic months. The anomalously zonal jet is found to be associated with anomalous tropical Pacific diabatic heating and eddy anomalies similar to those found during a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state. A Lagrangian back-trajectory diagnosis of eight winters suggests the tropical Pacific is a source of momentum to the Atlantic and African jets and that this source was stronger during the winter of 2010. The results suggest that the combination of weak eddy variance and fluxes in the North Atlantic, along with strong tropical heating, act to push the jet toward a merged eddy–thermally driven state. The authors also find significant SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, which reinforce the anomalous zonal winds, particularly in the eastern Atlantic.

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1888 im israelitischen Tempel zu Hamburg / von David Leimdörfer

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In the first decades of the twentieth century, the Earth warmed rapidly. A coral-based climate proxy record of westerly winds over the equatorial Pacific suggests that wind strength and warming rate were linked, as they are today.

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While several studies have investigated winter-time air pollution with a wide range of concentration levels, hardly any results are available for longer time periods covering several winter-smog episodes at various locations; e.g., often only a few weeks from a single winter are investigated. Here, we present source apportionment results of winter-smog episodes from 16 air pollution monitoring stations across Switzerland from five consecutive winters. Radiocarbon (14C) analyses of the elemental (EC) and organic (OC) carbon fractions, as well as levoglucosan, major water-soluble ionic species and gas-phase pollutant measurements were used to characterize the different sources of PM10. The most important contributions to PM10 during winter-smog episodes in Switzerland were on average the secondary inorganic constituents (sum of nitrate, sulfate and ammonium = 41 ± 15%) followed by organic matter (OM) (34 ± 13%) and EC (5 ± 2%). The non-fossil fractions of OC (fNF,OC) ranged on average from 69 to 85 and 80 to 95% for stations north and south of the Alps, respectively, showing that traffic contributes on average only up to ~ 30% to OC. The non-fossil fraction of EC (fNF,EC), entirely attributable to primary wood burning, was on average 42 ± 13 and 49 ± 15% for north and south of the Alps, respectively. While a high correlation was observed between fossil EC and nitrogen oxides, both primarily emitted by traffic, these species did not significantly correlate with fossil OC (OCF), which seems to suggest that a considerable amount of OCF is secondary, from fossil precursors. Elevated fNF,EC and fNF,OC values and the high correlation of the latter with other wood burning markers, including levoglucosan and water soluble potassium (K+) indicate that residential wood burning is the major source of carbonaceous aerosols during winter-smog episodes in Switzerland. The inspection of the non-fossil OC and EC levels and the relation with levoglucosan and water-soluble K+ shows different ratios for stations north and south of the Alps (most likely because of differences in burning technologies) for these two regions in Switzerland.

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During winter 2013, extremely high concentrations (i.e., 4–20 times higher than the World Health Organization guideline) of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm) mass concentrations (24 h samples) were found in four major cities in China including Xi'an, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Statistical analysis of a combined data set from elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), 14C and biomass-burning marker measurements using Latin hypercube sampling allowed a quantitative source apportionment of carbonaceous aerosols. Based on 14C measurements of EC fractions (six samples each city), we found that fossil emissions from coal combustion and vehicle exhaust dominated EC with a mean contribution of 75 ± 8% across all sites. The remaining 25 ± 8% was exclusively attributed to biomass combustion, consistent with the measurements of biomass-burning markers such as anhydrosugars (levoglucosan and mannosan) and water-soluble potassium (K+). With a combination of the levoglucosan-to-mannosan and levoglucosan-to-K+ ratios, the major source of biomass burning in winter in China is suggested to be combustion of crop residues. The contribution of fossil sources to OC was highest in Beijing (58 ± 5%) and decreased from Shanghai (49 ± 2%) to Xi'an (38 ± 3%) and Guangzhou (35 ± 7%). Generally, a larger fraction of fossil OC was from secondary origins than primary sources for all sites. Non-fossil sources accounted on average for 55 ± 10 and 48 ± 9% of OC and total carbon (TC), respectively, which suggests that non-fossil emissions were very important contributors of urban carbonaceous aerosols in China. The primary biomass-burning emissions accounted for 40 ± 8, 48 ± 18, 53 ± 4 and 65 ± 26% of non-fossil OC for Xi'an, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, respectively. Other non-fossil sources excluding primary biomass burning were mainly attributed to formation of secondary organic carbon (SOC) from non-fossil precursors such as biomass-burning emissions. For each site, we also compared samples from moderately to heavily polluted days according to particulate matter mass. Despite a significant increase of the absolute mass concentrations of primary emissions from both fossil and non-fossil sources during the heavily polluted events, their relative contribution to TC was even decreased, whereas the portion of SOC was consistently increased at all sites. This observation indicates that SOC was an important fraction in the increment of carbonaceous aerosols during the haze episode in China.

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This paper is the edited translation of a short paper by Felix Exner “Über monatliche Witterungsanomalien auf der nördlichen Halbkugel im Winter” (On monthly weather anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter), which was published in Meteorologische Zeitschrift 31, 104–109. The paper is a summary of a more extensive paper by the same author published in full in the Sitzungsberichte der Kaiserlichen Akademie der Wissenschaften.

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This paper presents a unique 517-yr long documentary data-based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are partly based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), partly on (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774–1824 for calibration (r = 0.78) and from 1920–1970 for verification (r = 0.75). The latter result even suffers from the weak data base available for 1870– 1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentarybased GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

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The international standardisation of national meteorological networks in the late nineteenth century excluded biotic and abiotic observations from the objects to be henceforth published in the yearbooks. Skilled amateurs being in charge of three meteorological stations in Canton Schaffhausen (Switzerland) and their successors managed to continuously publish phenological observations gathered in the station environment alongside with meteorological data in the official gazette of this Canton from 1876 to 1950, i.e. up to the onset of phenological network observations in Switzerland. At least ten observations are available for 51 plant and animal phenological phases. Long series were assembled (N → = 30) for 14 plant phenological observations, among them for the first flowering of snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis), of hazel (Corylus avellana), of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum), of winter rye (Secale cereale) and of grape vine (Vitis vinifera) as well as the beginning of hay, winter rye and grape harvesting. Only the bare data were published without any metadata. The quality of 10 long series (N →=60) was checked by investigating the biographical and biological background of key observers and submitting their evidence to graphical (meteorological plausibility check of outliers) and statistical verification. The long term observers, mostly schoolteachers and high school professors, had a good knowledge of botany and the quality of their observations – disregarding obvious printing errors – is surprisingly good. A number of long series (seven) was completed with applicable data from the Swiss Phenological Network up to 2011. Besides anthropogenic shifts (beginning of hay and grape harvest) there is a contrast between a global warming-related earlier flowering of snowdrop and hazel and a later occurrence of grape vine flowering.

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Determining the contribution of wood smoke to air pollution in large cities such as London is becoming increasingly important due to the changing nature of domestic heating in urban areas. During winter, biomass burning emissions have been identified as a major cause of exceedances of European air quality limits. The aim of this work was to quantify the contribution of biomass burning in London to concentrations of PM2:5 and determine whether local emissions or regional contributions were the main source of biomass smoke. To achieve this, a number of biomass burning chemical tracers were analysed at a site within central London and two sites in surrounding rural areas. Concentrations of levoglucosan, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC) and K+ were generally well correlated across the three sites. At all the sites, biomass burning was found to be a source of OC and EC, with the largest contribution of EC from traffic emissions, while for OC the dominant fraction included contributions from secondary organic aerosols, primary biogenic and cooking sources. Source apportionment of the EC and OC was found to give reasonable estimation of the total carbon from non-fossil and fossil fuel sources based upon comparison with estimates derived from 14C analysis. Aethalometer-derived black carbon data were also apportioned into the contributions frombiomass burning and traffic and showed trends similar to those observed for EC. Mean wood smoke mass at the sites was estimated to range from 0.78 to 1.0 μgm-3 during the campaign in January–February 2012. Measurements on a 160m tower in London suggested a similar ratio of brown to black carbon (reflecting wood burning and traffic respectively) in regional and London air. Peaks in the levoglucosan and K+ concentrations were observed to coincide with low ambient temperature, consistent with domestic heating as a major contributing local source in London. Overall, the source of biomass smoke in London was concluded to be a background regional source overlaid by contributions from local domestic burning emissions. This could have implications when considering future emission control strategies during winter and may be the focus of future work in order to better determine the contributing local sources.