Observations of wind speed profiles over Greater London, UK, using a Doppler lidar

To calculate the potential wind loading on a tall building in an urban area, an accurate representation of the wind speed profile is required. However, due to a lack of observations, wind engineers typically estimate the characteristics of the urban boundary layer by translating the measurements from a nearby reference rural site. This study presents wind speed profile data obtained from a Doppler lidar in central London, UK, during an 8 month observation period. Used in conjunction with wind speed data measured at a nearby airport, the data have been used to assess the accuracy of the predictions made by the wind engineering tools currently available. When applied to multiple changes in surface roughness identified from morphological parameters, the non-equilibrium wind speed profile model developed by Deaves (1981) provides a good representation of the urban wind speed profile. For heights below 500 m, the predicted wind speed remains within the 95% confidence interval of the measured data. However, when the surface roughness is estimated using land use as a proxy, the model tends to overestimate the wind speed, particularly for very high wind speed periods. These results highlight the importance of a detailed assessment of the nature of the surface when estimating the wind speed above an urban surface.

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

A self-similar expansion model for use in solar wind transient propogation studies

Since the advent of wide-angle imaging of the inner heliosphere, a plethora of techniques have been developed to investigate the three-dimensional structure and kinematics of solar wind transients, such as coronal mass ejections, from their signatures in single- and multi-spacecraft imaging observations. These techniques, which range from the highly complex and computationally intensive to methods based on simple curve fitting, all have their inherent advantages and limitations. In the analysis of single-spacecraft imaging observations, much use has been made of the fixed φ fitting (FPF) and harmonic mean fitting (HMF) techniques, in which the solar wind transient is considered to be a radially propagating point source (fixed φ, FP, model) and a radially expanding circle anchored at Sun centre (harmonic mean, HM, model), respectively. Initially, we compare the radial speeds and propagation directions derived from application of the FPF and HMF techniques to a large set of STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations. As the geometries on which these two techniques are founded constitute extreme descriptions of solar wind transients in terms of their extent along the line of sight, we describe a single-spacecraft fitting technique based on a more generalized model for which the FP and HM geometries form the limiting cases. In addition to providing estimates of a transient’s speed and propagation direction, the self-similar expansion fitting (SSEF) technique provides, in theory, the capability to estimate the transient’s angular extent in the plane orthogonal to the field of view. Using the HI observations, and also by performing a Monte Carlo simulation, we assess the potential of the SSEF technique.

Natural ventilation assessment in typical open an semi-open urban environments under various wind directions

Semi-open street roofs protect pedestrians from intense sunshine and rains. Their effects on natural ventilation of urban canopy layers (UCL) are less understood. This paper investigates two idealized urban models consisting of 4(2×2) or 16(4×4) buildings under a neutral atmospheric condition with parallel (0°) or non-parallel (15°,30°,45°) approaching wind. The aspect ratio (building height (H) / street width (W)) is 1 and building width is B=3H. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were first validated by experimental data, confirming that standard k-ε model predicted airflow velocity better than RNG k-ε model, realizable k–ε model and Reynolds stress model. Three ventilation indices were numerically analyzed for ventilation assessment, including flow rates across street roofs and openings to show the mechanisms of air exchange, age of air to display how long external air reaches a place after entering UCL, and purging flow rate to quantify the net UCL ventilation capacity induced by mean flows and turbulence. Five semi-open roof types are studied: Walls being hung above street roofs (coverage ratio λa=100%) at z=1.5H, 1.2H, 1.1H ('Hung1.5H', 'Hung1.2H', 'Hung1.1H' types); Walls partly covering street roofs (λa=80%) at z=H ('Partly-covered' type); Walls fully covering street roofs (λa=100%) at z=H ('Fully-covered' type).They basically obtain worse UCL ventilation than open street roof type due to the decreased roof ventilation. 'Hung1.1H', 'Hung1.2H', 'Hung1.5H' types are better designs than 'Fully-covered' and 'Partly-covered' types. Greater urban size contains larger UCL volume and requires longer time to ventilate. The methodologies and ventilation indices are confirmed effective to quantify UCL ventilation.

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

Simulations of angular momentum evolution in wind-fed CV precursors

It is thought that the secondary stars in cataclysmic variables (CVs) may undergo a period of mass loss in the form of a wind during the evolution of the system (Mullan et al. 1992). This wind is thought to magnetically brake the secondary star with a time-scale ~ 10^8 yr (e.g. van Paradijs 1986). When the secondary’s spin has been brought close to synchronism with the orbit it is possible for tidal torques to lock the secondary in synchronous rotation.

Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction

A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 90° change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. The sea-ice domain is 400km in size and consists of polygonal floes obtained through a Voronoi tessellation. Initially the floes are frozen together through viscous–elastic joints that can break under sufficient compressive, tensile and shear deformation. A constant wind-stress gradient is applied until the initially frozen ice pack is broken into roughly diamond-shaped aggregates, with crack angles determined by wing-crack formation. Then partial refreezing of the cracks delineating the aggregates is modelled through reduction of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotated by 90°. New cracks form, delineating aggregates with a different orientation. Our results show the new crack orientation depends on the refrozen fraction of the initial faults: as this fraction increases, the new cracks gradually rotate to the new wind direction, reaching 90° for fully refrozen faults. Such reorientation is determined by a competition between new cracks forming at a preferential angle determined by the wing-crack theory and at old cracks oriented at a less favourable angle but having higher stresses due to shorter contacts across the joints

How to parametrize urban-canopy drag to reproduce wind-direction effects within the canopy

The mean wind direction within an urban canopy changes with height when the incoming flow is not orthogonal to obstacle faces. This wind-turning effect is induced by complex processes and its modelling in urban-canopy (UC) parametrizations is difficult. Here we focus on the analysis of the spatially-averaged flow properties over an aligned array of cubes and their variation with incoming wind direction. For this purpose, Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations previously compared, for a reduced number of incident wind directions, against direct numerical simulation results are used. The drag formulation of a UCparametrization ismodified and different drag coefficients are tested in order to reproduce the wind-turning effect within the canopy for oblique wind directions. The simulations carried out for a UC parametrization in one-dimensional mode indicate that a height-dependent drag coefficient is needed to capture this effect.

Implications of the recent low solar minimum for the solar wind during the Maunder minimum

The behavior of the Sun and near-Earth space during grand solar minima is not understood; however, the recent long and low minimum of the decadal-scale solar cycle gives some important clues, with implications for understanding the solar dynamo and predicting space weather conditions. The speed of the near-Earth solar wind and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) embedded within it can be reliably reconstructed for before the advent of spacecraft monitoring using observations of geomagnetic activity that extend back to the mid-19th century. We show that during the solar cycle minima around 1879 and 1901 the average solar wind speed was exceptionally low, implying the Earth remained within the streamer belt of slow solar wind flow for extended periods. This is consistent with a broader streamer belt, which was also a feature of the recent low minimum (2009), and yields a prediction that the low near-Earth IMF during the Maunder minimum (1640-1700), as derived from models and deduced from cosmogenic isotopes, was accompanied by a persistent and relatively constant solar wind of speed roughly half the average for the modern era.

Solar cycle evolution of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts and their relation to the slow solar wind

Dipolar streamers are coronal structures formed by open solar flux converging from coronal holes of opposite polarity. Thus the dipolar streamer belt traces the coronal foot print of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and it is strongly associated with the origin of slow solar wind. Pseudostreamers, on the other hand, separate converging regions of open solar flux from coronal holes of the same polarity and do not contain current sheets. They have recently received a great deal of interest as a possible additional source of slow solar wind. Here we add to that growing body of work by using the potential-field source-surface model to determine the occurrence and location of dipolar and pseudostreamers over the last three solar cycles. In addition to providing new information about pseudostreamer morphology, the results help explain why the observations taken during the first Ulysses perihelion pass in 1995 showed noncoincidence between dipolar streamer belt and the locus of slowest flow. We find that Carrington rotation averages of the heliographic latitudes of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts are systematically shifted away from the equator, alternately in opposite directions, with a weak solar cycle periodicity, thus keeping slow wind from the web of combined streamer belts approximately symmetric about the equator. The largest separation of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts occurred close to the Ulysses pass, allowing a unique opportunity to see that slow wind from pseudostreamer belts north of the southward-displaced dipolar belt was responsible for the noncoincident pattern.

Unsteady flow simulation of a vertical axis augmented wind turbine: a two-dimensional study

As the integration of vertical axis wind turbines in the built environment is a promising alternative to horizontal axis wind turbines, a 2D computational investigation of an augmented wind turbine is proposed and analysed. In the initial CFD analysis, three parameters are carefully investigated: mesh resolution; turbulence model; and time step size. It appears that the mesh resolution and the turbulence model affect result accuracy; while the time step size examined, for the unsteady nature of the flow, has small impact on the numerical results. In the CFD validation of the open rotor with secondary data, the numerical results are in good agreement in terms of shape. It is, however, observed a discrepancy factor of 2 between numerical and experimental data. Successively, the introduction of an omnidirectional stator around the wind turbine increases the power and torque coefficients by around 30–35% when compared to the open case; but attention needs to be given to the orientation of the stator blades for optimum performance. It is found that the power and torque coefficients of the augmented wind turbine are independent of the incident wind speed considered.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux

In the concluding paper of this tetralogy, we here use the different geomagnetic activity indices to reconstruct the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind flow speed, as well as the open solar flux (OSF) from 1845 to the present day. The differences in how the various indices vary with near-Earth interplanetary parameters, which are here exploited to separate the effects of the IMF and solar wind speed, are shown to be statistically significant at the 93% level or above. Reconstructions are made using four combinations of different indices, compiled using different data and different algorithms, and the results are almost identical for all parameters. The correction to the aa index required is discussed by comparison with the Ap index from a more extensive network of mid-latitude stations. Data from the Helsinki magnetometer station is used to extend the aa index back to 1845 and the results confirmed by comparison with the nearby St Petersburg observatory. The optimum variations, using all available long-term geomagnetic indices, of the near-Earth IMF and solar wind speed, and of the open solar flux, are presented; all with ±2sigma� uncertainties computed using the Monte Carlo technique outlined in the earlier papers. The open solar flux variation derived is shown to be very similar indeed to that obtained using the method of Lockwood et al. (1999).