The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands

This paper reviews the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean and uses a state–of–the–art atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the influence of the East African Highlands on the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions. The new 44–year re–analysis produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to construct a new climatology of the Western Indian Ocean. A brief overview of the seasonal cycle of the Western Indian Ocean is presented which emphasizes the importance of the geography of the Indian Ocean basin for controlling the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean. The principal modes of inter–annual variability are described, associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode, and the basic characteristics of the subseasonal weather over the Western Indian Ocean are presented, including new statistics on cyclone tracks derived from the ECMWF re–analyses. Sensitivity experiments, in which the orographic effects of East Africa are removed, have shown that the East African Highlands, although not very high, play a significant role in the climate of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and in the heat, salinity and momentum forcing of the Western Indian Ocean. The hydrological cycle over Africa is systematically enhanced in all seasons by the presence of the East African Highlands, and during the Asian summer monsoon there is a major redistribution of the rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. The implied impact of the East African Highlands on the ocean is substantial. The East African Highlands systematically freshen the tropical Indian Ocean, and act to focus the monsoon winds along the coast, leading to greater upwelling and cooler sea–surface temperatures.

Black carbon measurements in the boundary layer over western and northern Europe

Europe is a densely populated region that is a significant global source of black carbon (BC) aerosol, but there is a lack of information regarding the physical properties and spatial/vertical distribution of rBC in the region. We present the first aircraft observations of sub-micron refractory BC (rBC) aerosol concentrations and physical properties measured by a single particle soot photometer (SP2) in the lower troposphere over Europe. The observations spanned a region roughly bounded by 50° to 60° N and from 15° W to 30° E. The measurements, made between April and September 2008, showed that average rBC mass concentrations ranged from about 300 ng m−3 near urban areas to approximately 50 ng m−3 in remote continental regions, lower than previous surface-based measurements. rBC represented between 0.5 and 3% of the sub-micron aerosol mass. Black carbon mass size distributions were log-normally distributed and peaked at approximately 180 nm, but shifted to smaller diameters (~160 nm) near source regions. rBC was correlated with carbon monoxide (CO) but had different ratios to CO depending on location and air mass. Light absorption coefficients were measured by particle soot absorption photometers on two separate aircraft and showed similar geographic patterns to rBC mass measured by the SP2. We summarize the rBC and light absorption measurements as a function of longitude and air mass age and also provide profiles of rBC mass concentrations and size distribution statistics. Our results will help evaluate model-predicted regional rBC concentrations and properties and determine regional and global climate impacts from rBC due to atmospheric heating and surface dimming.

Enhancement of the aerosol direct radiative effect by semi-volatile aerosol components: airborne measurements in North-Western Europe

A case study of atmospheric aerosol measurements exploring the impact of the vertical distribution of aerosol chemical composition upon the radiative budget in North-Western Europe is presented. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured by an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) on both an airborne platform and a ground-based site at Cabauw in the Netherlands. The examined period in May 2008 was characterised by enhanced pollution loadings in North-Western Europe and was dominated by ammonium nitrate and Organic Matter (OM). Both ammonium nitrate and OM were observed to increase with altitude in the atmospheric boundary layer. This is primarily attributed to partitioning of semi-volatile gas phase species to the particle phase at reduced temperature and enhanced relative humidity. Increased ammonium nitrate concentrations in particular were found to strongly increase the ambient scattering potential of the aerosol burden, which was a consequence of the large amount of associated water as well as the enhanced mass. During particularly polluted conditions, increases in aerosol optical depth of 50–100% were estimated to occur due to the observed increase in secondary aerosol mass and associated water uptake. Furthermore, the single scattering albedo was also shown to increase with height in the boundary layer. These enhancements combined to increase the negative direct aerosol radiative forcing by close to a factor of two at the median percentile level. Such increases have major ramifications for regional climate predictions as semi-volatile components are often not included in aerosol models. The results presented here provide an ideal opportunity to test regional and global representations of both the aerosol vertical distribution and subsequent impacts in North-Western Europe. North-Western Europe can be viewed as an analogue for the possible future air quality over other polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where substantial reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions have yet to occur. Anticipated reductions in sulphur dioxide in polluted regions will result in an increase in the availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate as opposed to ammonium sulphate. This will be most important where intensive agricultural practises occur. Our observations over North-Western Europe, a region where sulphur dioxide emissions have already been reduced, indicate that failure to include the semi-volatile behaviour of ammonium nitrate will result in significant errors in predicted aerosol direct radiative forcing. Such errors will be particularly significant on regional scales.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

'To move or not to move': Reflections on the resettlement of artisanal miners in the western region of Ghana

This article critically reflects upon the shortcomings of the 'Prestea Action Plan', an ambitious initiative undertaken to facilitate the resettlement of artisanal miners operating in the Western Region of Ghana. The aim of the exercise was to identify viable areas for the thousands of operators who were working illegally in the town of Prestea, an area under concession to the US-based multinational, Golden Star Resources Ltd. At the time of its launch, it was one of the few support initiatives to target artisanal miners, whose claims to land are generally not recognized by governments. It was a particularly significant exercise in Ghana because it suggested that the authorities, who traditionally have exercised a policy of non-negotiation with such groups, had finally recognized that dialogue was needed if the growing rift between the country's indigenous artisanal miners, foreign mining companies and government bodies was to be bridged. It soon emerged, however, that despite its commendable policy objectives, the Plan was fundamentally flawed-problems which would undermine the entire exercise.

Strategies, effectiveness and rationale of vector-borne disease control in the pastoralist system of south-western Uganda

In Uganda, control of vector-borne diseases is mainly in form of vector control, and chemotherapy. There have been reports that acaricides are being misused in the pastoralist systems in Uganda. This is because of the belief by scientists that intensive application of acaricide is uneconomical and unsustainable particularly in the indigenous cattle. The objective of this study was to investigate the strategies, rationale and effectiveness of vector-borne disease control by pastoralists. To systematically carry out these investigations, a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods was used, in both the collection and the analysis of data. Cattle keepers were found to control tick-borne diseases (TBDs) mainly through spraying, in contrast with the control of trypanosomosis for which the main method of control was by chemotherapy. The majority of herders applied acaricides weekly and used an acaricide of lower strength than recommended by the manufacturers. They used very little acaricide wash, and spraying was preferred to dipping. Furthermore, pastoralists either treated sick animals themselves or did nothing at all, rather than using veterinary personnel. Oxytetracycline (OTC) was the drug commonly used in the treatment of TBDs. Nevertheless, although pastoralists may not have been following recommended practices in their control of ticks and tick-borne diseases, they were neither wasteful nor uneconomical and their methods appeared to be effective. Trypanosomosis was not a problem either in Sembabule or Mbarara district. Those who used trypanocides were found to use more drugs than were necessary.

Mutations in the NS2B and NS3 genes affect mouse neuroinvasiveness of a Western European field strain of tick-borne encephalitis virus

An attenuated strain (263) of the tick-borne encephalitis virus, isolated from field ticks, was either serially subcultured, 5 times in mice, or at 40 degrees C in PS cells, producing 2 independent strains, 263-m5 and 263-TR with identical genomes; both strains exhibited increased plaque size, neuroinvasiveness and temperature-resistance. Sequencing revealed two unique amino acid substitutions, one mapping close to the catalytic site of the viral protease. These observations imply that virus adaptation from ticks to mammals occurs by selection of pre-existing virulent variants from the quasispecies population rather than by the emergence of new random mutations. The significance of these observations is discussed. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.