Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulation for 6000 years B.P. and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO2 concentration was pre-industrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate “anomalies” (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 °N north (to 18 °N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks.

Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane) concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3 times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. The source of this effect is largely due to the construction of the input ozone fields, which overestimate the true ensemble spread. Hence, while the average of multi-model fields are normally appropriate for calculating mean RF, GWP and GTP, they are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty in these fields, and in general overestimate the uncertainty.

The response of northern hemisphere extratropical climate and vegetation to orbitally-induced changes in insolation during the last interglaciation

The last interglaciation (substage 5e) provides an opportunity to examine the effects of extreme orbital changes on regional climates. We have made two atmospheric general circulation model experiments: P+T+ approximated the northern hemisphere seasonality maximum near the beginning of 5e; P-T- approximated the minimum near the end of 5e. Simulated regional climate changes have been translated into biome changes using a physiologically based model of global vegetation types. Major climatic and vegetational changes were simulated for the northern hemisphere extratropics, due to radiational effects that were both amplified and modified by atmospheric circulation changes and sea-ice feedback. P+T+ showed mid-continental summers up to 8°C warmer than present. Mid-latitude winters were 2-4°C cooler than present but in the Arctic, summer warmth reduced sea-ice extent and thickness, producing winters 2-8°C warmer than present. The tundra and taiga biomes were displaced poleward, while warm-summer steppes expanded in the mid latitudes due to drought. P-T- showed summers up to 5°C cooler than present, especially in mid latitudes. Sea ice and snowpack were thicker and lasted longer; polar desert, tundra, and taiga biomes were displaced equatorward, while cool-summer steppes and semideserts expanded due to the cooling. A slight winter warming in mid latitudes, however, caused warm-temperate evergreen forests and scrub to expand poleward. Such qualitative contrasts in the direction of climate and vegetation change during 5e should be identifiable in the paleorecord

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Orbital and millenial-scale environmental changes between 64 and 25 ka BP recorded in Black Sea sediments

High-resolution pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from sediment core M72/5-25-GC1 were used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in northern Anatolia and surface conditions of the Black Sea between 64 and 20 ka BP. During this period, the dominance of Artemisia in the pollen record indicates a steppe landscape and arid climate conditions. However, the concomitant presence of temperate arboreal pollen suggests the existence of glacial refugia in northern Anatolia. Long-term glacial vegetation dynamics reveal two major arid phases ~64–55 and 40–32 ka BP, and two major humid phases ~54–45 and 28–20 ka BP, correlating with higher and lower summer insolation, respectively. Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles are clearly indicated by the 25-GC1 pollen record. Greenland interstadials are characterized by a marked increase in temperate tree pollen, indicating a spread of forests due to warm/wet conditions in northern Anatolia, whereas Greenland stadials reveal cold and arid conditions as indicated by spread of xerophytic biomes. There is evidence for a phase lag of ~500 to 1500 yr between initial warming and forest expansion, possibly due to successive changes in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector. The dominance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis in the dinocyst record indicates brackish Black Sea conditions during the entire glacial period. The decrease of marine indicators (marine dinocysts, acritarchs) at ~54 ka BP and increase of freshwater algae (Pediastrum, Botryococcus) from 32 to 25 ka BP reveals freshening of the Black Sea surface water. This freshening is possibly related to humid phases in the region, to connection between Caspian Sea and Black Sea, to seasonal freshening by floating ice, and/or to closer position of river mouths due to low sea level. In the southern Black Sea, Greenland interstadials are clearly indicated by high dinocyst concentrations and calcium carbonate content, as a result of an increase in primary productivity. Heinrich events show a similar impact on the environment in the northern Anatolia/Black Sea region as Greenland stadials.

Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.

Vegetation and environmental changes in Northern Anatolia between 134 and 119ka recorded in Black Sea sediments

This multiproxy study on SE Black Sea sediments provides the first detailed reconstruction of vegetation and environmental history of Northern Anatolia between 134 and 119 ka. Here, the glacial–interglacial transition is characterized by several short-lived alternating cold and warm events preceding a meltwater pulse (~ 130.4–131.7 ka). The latter is reconstructed as a cold arid period correlated to Heinrich event 11. The initial warming is evidenced at ~ 130.4 ka by increased primary productivity in the Black Sea, disappearance of ice-rafted detritus, and spreading of oaks in Anatolia. A Younger Dryas-type event is not identifiable. The Eemian vegetation succession corresponds to the main climatic phases in Europe: i) the Quercus–Juniperus phase (128.7–126.4 ka) indicates a dry continental climate; ii) the Ostrya–Corylus–Quercus–Carpinus phase (126.4–122.9 ka) suggests warm summers, mild winters, and high year-round precipitation; iii) the Fagus–Carpinus phase (122.9–119.5 ka) indicates cooling and high precipitation; and iv) increasing Pinus at ~ 121 ka marks the onset of cooler/drier conditions. Generally, pollen reconstructions suggest altitudinal/latitudinal migrations of vegetation belts in Northern Anatolia during the Eemian caused by increased transport of moisture. The evidence for the wide distribution of Fagus around the Black Sea contrasts with the European records and is likely related to climatic and genetic factors

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Climate justice in a carbon budget

The fact of a carbon budget given commitment to limiting global-mean temperature increase to below 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels makes CO2 emissions a scarce resource. This fact has significant consequences for the ethics of climate change. The paper highlights some of these consequences with respect to (a) applying principles of distributive justice to the allocation of rights to emissions and the costs of mitigation and adaptation, (b) compensation for the harms and risks of climate change, (c) radical new ideas about a place for criminal justice in tackling climate change, and (d) catastrophe ethics.

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1–40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land–sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Asia and low SLP anomalies over the WNP, associated with a weakened EASM. In response to emissions from both regions warming and moistening over the WNP plays an important role and determines the time scale of the response.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Subsurface urban heat island and its effects on horizontal ground-source heat pump potential under climate change

Recent urban air temperature increase is attributable to the climate change and heat island effects due to urbanization. This combined effects of urbanization and global warming can penetrate into the underground and elevate the subsurface temperature. In the present study, over-100 years measurements of subsurface temperature at a remote rural site were analysed, and an increasing rate of 0.17⁰C per decade at soil depth of 30cm due to climate change was identified in the UK, but the subsurface warming in an urban site showed a much higher rate of 0.85⁰C per decade at a 30cm depth and 1.18⁰C per decade at 100cm. The subsurface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity obtained at the paired urban-rural stations in London showed an unique 'U-shape', i.e. lowest in summer and highest during winter. The maximum SUHII is 3.5⁰C at 6:00 AM in December, and the minimum UHII is 0.2⁰C at 18:00PM in July. Finally, the effects of SUHI on the energy efficiency of the horizontal ground source heat pump (GSHP) were determined. Provided the same heat pump used, the installation at an urban site will maintain an overall higher COP compared with that at a rural site in all seasons, but the highest COP improvement can be achieved in winter.

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt

The Arctic sea ice retreat has accelerated over the last decade. The negative trend is largest in summer, but substantial interannual variability still remains. Here we explore observed atmospheric conditions and feedback mechanisms during summer months of anomalous sea ice melt in the Arctic. Compositing months of anomalous low and high sea ice melt over 1979–2013, we find distinct patterns in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, radiation, and temperature. Compared to summer months of anomalous low sea ice melt, high melt months are characterized by anomalous high sea level pressure in the Arctic (up to 7 hPa), with a corresponding tendency of storms to track on a more zonal path. As a result, the Arctic receives less precipitation overall and 39% less snowfall. This lowers the albedo of the region and reduces the negative feedback the snowfall provides for the sea ice. With an anticyclonic tendency, 12 W/m2 more incoming shortwave radiation reaches the surface in the start of the season. The melting sea ice in turn promotes cloud development in the marginal ice zones and enhances downwelling longwave radiation at the surface toward the end of the season. A positive cloud feedback emerges. In midlatitudes, the more zonally tracking cyclones give stormier, cloudier, wetter, and cooler summers in most of northern Europe and around the Sea of Okhotsk. Farther south, the region from the Mediterranean Sea to East Asia experiences significant surface warming (up to 2.4◦C), possibly linked to changes in the jet stream.

Effects of past climate variability on fire and vegetation in the cerrãdo savanna of the Huanchaca Mesetta, NE Bolivia

Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by ∼ 3 ◦C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ∼ 20 %. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500-year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed with phytoliths, stable isotopes, and charcoal. A nonanalogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Lateglacial–early Holocene period (14 500–9000 cal yr BP, which included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Lateglacial vegetation was fire-sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly firedependent during the middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire-adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first-order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second-order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos (cold wind incursions from Patagonia) leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather than anthropogenic drivers control the vegetation and fire activity at Huanchaca Mesetta. Thus the cerrãdo savanna ecosystem of the Huanchaca Plateau has exhibited ecosystem resilience to major climatic changes in both temperature and precipitation since the Lateglacial period.