A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Sexual behaviour of men that consulted in medical outpatient clinics in Western Switzerland from 2005-2006: risk levels unknown to doctors?

BACKGROUND: To determine male outpatient attenders' sexual behaviours, expectations and experience of talking about their sexuality and sexual health needs with a doctor. METHODS: A survey was conducted among all male patients aged 18-70, recruited from the two main medical outpatient clinics in Lausanne, Switzerland, in 2005-2006. The anonymous self-administered questionnaire included questions on sexual behaviour, HIV/STI information needs, expectations and experiences regarding discussion of sexual matters with a doctor. RESULTS: The response rate was 53.0% (N = 1452). The mean age was 37.7 years. Overall, 13.4% of patients were defined as at STI risk--i.e. having not consistently used condoms with casual partners in the last 6 months, or with a paid partner during the last intercourse--regarding their sexual behaviour in the last year. 90.9% would have liked their physician to ask them questions concerning their sexual life; only 61.4% had ever had such a discussion. The multivariate analysis showed that patients at risk tended to have the following characteristics: recruited from the HIV testing clinic, lived alone, declared no religion, had a low level of education, felt uninformed about HIV/AIDS, were younger, had had concurrent sexual partners in the last 12 months. However they were not more likely to have discussed sexual matters with their doctor than patients not at risk. CONCLUSION: Recording the sexual history and advice on the prevention of the risks of STI should become routine practice for primary health care doctors.

Electron microscopy of RecA-DNA complexes: Two different states, their functional significance and relation to the solved crystal structure

Seven different electron microscopy techniques habe been employed to study the RecA protein of E. coli. This review provides a summary of the conclusions that have been drawn from these studies, and attempts to relate these observations to models for the role of RecA protein in homologous recombination.

Testing the response of macroinvertebrate functional structure and biodiversity to flooding and confinement

The aim of the present study was to investigate the relative importance of flooding- and confinement-related environmentalfeatures in explaining macroinvertebrate trait structure and diversity in a pool of wetlands located in a Mediterranean riverfloodplain. To test hypothesized trait-environment relationships, we employed a recently implemented statistical procedure, thefourth-corner method. We found that flooding-related variables, mainly pH and turbidity, were related to traits that confer an abilityof the organism to resist flooding (e.g., small body-shape, protection of eggs) or recuperate faster after flooding (e.g., short life-span, asexual reproduction). In contrast, confinement-related variables, mainly temperature and organic matter, enhanced traits that allow organisms to interact and compete with other organisms (e.g., large size, sexual reproduction) and to efficiently use habitat and resources (e.g., diverse locomotion and feeding strategies). These results are in agreement with predictions made under the River Habitat Templet for lotic ecosystems, and demonstrate the ability of the fourth-corner method to test hypothesis that posit traitenvironment relationships. Trait diversity was slightly higher in flooded than in confined sites, whereas trait richness was not significantly different. This suggests that although trait structure may change in response to the main environmental factors, as evidenced by the fourth-corner method, the number of life-history strategies needed to persist in the face of such constraints remains more or less constant; only their relative dominance differs

Functional Sub-Types

The paper argues that a functional reduction of ordinary psychology to neuropsychology is possible by means of constructing fine-grained functional, mental sub-types that are coextensive with neuropsychological types. We establish this claim by means of considering as examples the cases of the disconnection syndrome and schizophrenia. We point out that the result is a conservative reduction, vindicating the scientific quality of the mental types of ordinary psychology by systematically linking them with neuroscience. That procedure of conservative reduction by means of functional sub-types is in principle repeatable down to molecular neuroscience.

Prediction of functional outcome 18 months after a first psychotic episode: a proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy study.

CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.

Identification of optimal structural connectivity using functional connectivity and neural modeling.

The complex network dynamics that arise from the interaction of the brain's structural and functional architectures give rise to mental function. Theoretical models demonstrate that the structure-function relation is maximal when the global network dynamics operate at a critical point of state transition. In the present work, we used a dynamic mean-field neural model to fit empirical structural connectivity (SC) and functional connectivity (FC) data acquired in humans and macaques and developed a new iterative-fitting algorithm to optimize the SC matrix based on the FC matrix. A dramatic improvement of the fitting of the matrices was obtained with the addition of a small number of anatomical links, particularly cross-hemispheric connections, and reweighting of existing connections. We suggest that the notion of a critical working point, where the structure-function interplay is maximal, may provide a new way to link behavior and cognition, and a new perspective to understand recovery of function in clinical conditions.

Exercice physique et artériopathie oblitérante des membres inférieurs [Physical activity and peripheral arterial obstructive disease]

Intermittent claudication (IC) is the most common clinical manifestation of atherosclerotic peripheral arterial disease. Exercise training plays a major role in treating patients with IC. Regular exercise increases functional walking capacity, reduces cardiovascular mortality and improves quality of life. This seems to be achieved by: favorable effect on cardiovascular risk factors, anti-inflammatory effect, increased collateral blood flux, improved rheology profile, endothelial function, fibrinolysis, and muscular metabolism. However, exact mechanisms underlying beneficial effect of exercise remain largely unknown. Exercise modalities will be discussed in this article.

NOTCH1 can initiate NF-κB activation via cytosolic interactions with components of the T cell Signalosome.

T cell stimulation requires the input and integration of external signals. Signaling through the T cell receptor (TCR) is known to induce formation of the membrane-tethered CBM complex, comprising CARMA1, BCL10, and MALT1, which is required for TCR-mediated NF-κB activation. TCR signaling has been shown to activate NOTCH proteins, transmembrane receptors also implicated in NF-κB activation. However, the link between TCR-mediated NOTCH signaling and early events leading to induction of NF-κB activity remains unclear. In this report, we demonstrate a novel cytosolic function for NOTCH1 and show that it is essential to CBM complex formation. Using a model of skin allograft rejection, we show in vivo that NOTCH1 acts in the same functional pathway as PKCθ, a T cell-specific kinase important for CBM assembly and classical NF-κB activation. We further demonstrate in vitro NOTCH1 associates physically with PKCθ and CARMA1 in the cytosol. Unexpectedly, when NOTCH1 expression was abrogated using RNAi approaches, interactions between CARMA1, BCL10, and MALT1 were lost. This failure in CBM assembly reduced inhibitor of kappa B alpha phosphorylation and diminished NF-κB-DNA binding. Finally, using a luciferase gene reporter assay, we show the intracellular domain of NOTCH1 can initiate robust NF-κB activity in stimulated T cells, even when NOTCH1 is excluded from the nucleus through modifications that restrict it to the cytoplasm or hold it tethered to the membrane. Collectively, these observations provide evidence that NOTCH1 may facilitate early events during T cell activation by nucleating the CBM complex and initiating NF-κB signaling.

Exact representation of antenna system diversity performance from input parameter description

A simplc formulation Io compute thc envelope correlation of anantenna divemiry system is dcrired. 11 is shown how to compute theenvelope correlation hom the S-parameter descnplian of the antennasystem. This approach has the advantage that i t does not require thecomputation nor the measurement of the radiation panem of theantenna system. It also offers the advantage of providing a clcaunderstanding ofthe effects ofmutual coupling and input match on thediversity performance of the antcnnii system.

Interaction of alpha-melanotropin with central dopamine systems: role of hormonal state and molecular structure

The tubero-infundibular and nigrostriatal DA neurone systems of rats respond to systemic (i.p.) injection of alpha-MSH (2-100 microgram/kg). The response of the tubero-infundibular (arcuate) DA neurones, an increase in cellular fluorescence intensity which can be interpreted as a sign of increased neuronal activity, is essentially the same in males, estrogen-progesterone-pretreated ovariectomized females and hypophysectomized males, whereas the type of response elicited by alpha-MSH in the nigral DA neurones depends upon the hormonal state of the animal. Differences between the two DA neurone groups exist also with regard to the effects of peptide fragments containing the two active sites of the alpha-MSH molecule. Results of lesion experiments in the lower brainstem (area postrema) and of blockade of muscarinic mechanisms by atropine further point to differences in the mechanisms underlying the peptide effects on the two neurone systems. The reaction of the tubero-infundibular DA system (which controls the pars intermedia of the pituitary) can be considered to reflect the activation of a feedback mechanism on MSH secretion, while the functional counterpart of the changes observed in the nigral system remains unknown at the present time.

Correlates of frailty, prediction of functional decline and preventative approaches - selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (lc65+) study (Switzerland) (Lausanne) and the longitudinal urban cohort ageing study (Lucas) (Germany)

Overall introduction.- Longitudinal studies have been designed to investigate prospectively, from their beginning, the pathway leading from health to frailty and to disability. Knowledge about determinants of healthy ageing and health behaviour (resources) as well as risks of functional decline is required to propose appropriate preventative interventions. The functional status in older people is important considering clinical outcome in general, healthcare need and mortality. Part I.- Results and interventions from lucas (longitudinal urban cohort ageing study). Authors.- J. Anders, U. Dapp, L. Neumann, F. Pröfener, C. Minder, S. Golgert, A. Daubmann, K. Wegscheider,. W. von Renteln-Kruse Methods.- The LUCAS core project is a longitudinal cohort of urban community-dwelling people 60 years and older, recruited in 2000/2001. Further LUCAS projects are cross-sectional comparative and interventional studies (RCT). Results.- The emphasis will be on geriatric medical care in a population-based approach, discussing different forms of access, too. (Dapp et al. BMC Geriatrics 2012, 12:35; http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2318/12/35): - longitudinal data from the LUCAS urban cohort (n = 3.326) will be presented covering 10 years of observation, including the prediction of functional decline, need of nursing care, and mortality by using a self-filling screening tool; - interventions to prevent functional decline do focus on first (pre-clinical) signs of pre-frailty before entering the frailty-cascade ("Active Health Promotion in Old Age", "geriatric mobility centre") or disability ("home visits"). Conclusions.- The LUCAS research consortium was established to study particular aspects of functional competence, its changes with ageing, to detect pre-clinical signs of functional decline, and to address questions on how to maintain functional competence and to prevent adverse outcome in different settings. The multidimensional data base allows the exploration of several further questions. Gait performance was exmined by GAITRite®-System. Supported by the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF Funding No. 01ET1002A). Part II.- Selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ) Study (Switzerland). Authors.- Prof Santos-Eggimann Brigitte, Dr Seematter-Bagnoud Laurence, Prof Büla Christophe, Dr Rochat Stéphane. Methods.- The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). Results.- Information is collected about life course social and health-related events, socio-economics, medical and psychosocial dimensions, lifestyle habits, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, and falls. Gait performance are objectively measured using body-fixed sensors. Frailty is assessed using Fried's frailty phenotype. Follow-up consists in annual self-completed questionnaires, as well as physical examination and physical and mental performance tests every three years. - Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ): design and longitudinal outcomes. The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through self-completed questionnaires, face-to-face interviews, physical examination and tests of mental and physical performances. Information about institutionalization, self-reported health services utilization, and death is also assessed. An additional random sample (n = 1525) of 65-70 years old subjects was recruited in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943). - lecture no 4: alcohol intake and gait parameters: prevalent and longitudinal association in the Lc65+ study. The association between alcohol intake and gait performance was investigated.