Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Proactive management of collision risks in port waters using navigational traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. To address this safety concern, a comprehensive and structured method of collision risk management is necessary. Traditionally management of port water collision risks has been relied on historical collision data. However, this collision-data-based approach is hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of samples for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique that uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collision data. This paper proposes a collision risk management method by utilizing the principles of this technique. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which, consequently, has great potential for managing collision risks in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

System identification, estimation and control for a cost effective open-source quadcopter

This paper describes system identification, estimation and control of translational motion and heading angle for a cost effective open-source quadcopter — the MikroKopter. The dynamics of its built-in sensors, roll and pitch attitude controller, and system latencies are determined and used to design a computationally inexpensive multi-rate velocity estimator that fuses data from the built-in inertial sensors and a low-rate onboard laser range finder. Control is performed using a nested loop structure that is also computationally inexpensive and incorporates different sensors. Experimental results for the estimator and closed-loop positioning are presented and compared with ground truth from a motion capture system.

Frank-starling control of a left ventricular assist device

A physiological control system was developed for a rotary left ventricular assist device (LVAD) in which the target pump flow rate (LVADQ) was set as a function of left atrial pressure (LAP), mimicking the Frank-Starling mechanism. The control strategy was implemented using linear PID control and was evaluated in a pulsatile mock circulation loop using a prototyped centrifugal pump by varying pulmonary vascular resistance to alter venous return. The control strategy automatically varied pump speed (2460 to 1740 to 2700 RPM) in response to a decrease and subsequent increase in venous return. In contrast, a fixed-speed pump caused a simulated ventricular suction event during low venous return and higher ventricular volumes during high venous return. The preload sensitivity was increased from 0.011 L/min/mmHg in fixed speed mode to 0.47L/min/mmHg, a value similar to that of the native healthy heart. The sensitivity varied automatically to maintain the LAP and LVADQ within a predefined zone. This control strategy requires the implantation of a pressure sensor in the left atrium and a flow sensor around the outflow cannula of the LVAD. However, appropriate pressure sensor technology is not yet commercially available and so an alternative measure of preload such as pulsatility of pump signals should be investigated.

Canadian Crime Control in the New Millennium: The Influence of Neo-conservative U.S. Policies and Practices

An important issue facing Canadians today is crime control and prevention. Research done in the late 1980s and early 1990s by three sociologists shows that Canadian federal criminal justice policies and practices adopted by the Mulroney government from 1984 to 1990 were inconsistent with US ‘law and order’ models in place at that time. However, since the mid‐1990s, Canadian federal and provincial governments have mimicked some US authoritarian and gender‐blind means of curbing crime. The main objective of this paper is to provide some key examples of criminal justice policy transfer from the USA in Canada. At first glance, Canada may appear to be a ‘kinder, gentler nation,’ but not to the extent assumed by many, if not most, outside observers.

The Globalisation of Crime Control: The Case of Youth and Juvenille Justice

The concept of globalization has gradually permeated criminology, but more so as applied to transnational organized crime, international terrorism and policing than in addressing processes of criminal justice reform. Based on a wide range of bibliographic and web resources, this article assesses the extent to which a combination of neo-liberal assaults on the social logics of the welfare state and public provision, widespread experimentation with restorative justice and the prospect of rehabilitation through mediation and widely ratified international directives, epitomized by the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, have now made it possible to talk of a global juvenile/youth justice. Conversely it also reflects on how persistent national and local divergences, together with the contradictions of contemporary reform, may preclude any aspiration for the delivery of a universal and consensual product

The Punitive Turn in Juvenile Justice: Cultures of Control and Rights of Compliance in Western Europe and the USA

Separate systems of justice for children and young people have always been beset by issues of contradiction and compromise. There is compelling evidence that such ambiguity is currently being `resolved' by a greater governmental resort to neo-conservative punitive and correctional interventions and a neo-liberal responsibilizing mentality in which the protection historically afforded to children is rapidly dissolving. This resurgent authoritarianism appears all the more anachronistic when it is set against the widely held commitment to act within the guidelines established by various children's rights conventions. Of note is the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, frequently described as the most ratified human rights convention in the world, but lamentably also the most violated. Based on international research on juvenile custody rates and children's rights compliance in the USA and Western Europe, this article examines why and to what extent `American exceptionalism' might be permeating European nation states.