Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Fast Update of Conditional Simulation Ensembles

Gaussian random field (GRF) conditional simulation is a key ingredient in many spatial statistics problems for computing Monte-Carlo estimators and quantifying uncertainties on non-linear functionals of GRFs conditional on data. Conditional simulations are known to often be computer intensive, especially when appealing to matrix decomposition approaches with a large number of simulation points. This work studies settings where conditioning observations are assimilated batch sequentially, with one point or a batch of points at each stage. Assuming that conditional simulations have been performed at a previous stage, the goal is to take advantage of already available sample paths and by-products to produce updated conditional simulations at mini- mal cost. Explicit formulae are provided, which allow updating an ensemble of sample paths conditioned on n ≥ 0 observations to an ensemble conditioned on n + q observations, for arbitrary q ≥ 1. Compared to direct approaches, the proposed formulae proveto substantially reduce computational complexity. Moreover, these formulae explicitly exhibit how the q new observations are updating the old sample paths. Detailed complexity calculations highlighting the benefits of this approach with respect to state-of-the-art algorithms are provided and are complemented by numerical experiments.

Evaluation of serum biochemical marker concentrations and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate serum concentrations of biochemical markers and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy (PLE). DESIGN: Prospective study. ANIMALS: 29 dogs with PLE and 18 dogs with food-responsive diarrhea (FRD). PROCEDURES: Data regarding serum concentrations of various biochemical markers at the initial evaluation were available for 18 of the 29 dogs with PLE and compared with findings for dogs with FRD. Correlations between biochemical marker concentrations and survival time (interval between time of initial evaluation and death or euthanasia) for dogs with PLE were evaluated. RESULTS: Serum C-reactive protein concentration was high in 13 of 18 dogs with PLE and in 2 of 18 dogs with FRD. Serum concentration of canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity was high in 3 dogs with PLE but within the reference interval in all dogs with FRD. Serum α1-proteinase inhibitor concentration was less than the lower reference limit in 9 dogs with PLE and 1 dog with FRD. Compared with findings in dogs with FRD, values of those 3 variables in dogs with PLE were significantly different. Serum calprotectin (measured by radioimmunoassay and ELISA) and S100A12 concentrations were high but did not differ significantly between groups. Seventeen of the 29 dogs with PLE were euthanized owing to this disease; median survival time was 67 days (range, 2 to 2,551 days). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Serum C-reactive protein, canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity, and α1-proteinase inhibitor concentrations differed significantly between dogs with PLE and FRD. Most initial biomarker concentrations were not predictive of survival time in dogs with PLE.

Simulation in vascular access surgery training.

Rapidly growing technical developments and working time constraints call for changes in trainee formation. In reality, trainees spend fewer hours in the hospital and face more difficulties in acquiring the required qualifications in order to work independently as a specialist. Simulation-based training is a potential solution. It offers the possibility to learn basic technical skills, repeatedly perform key steps in procedures and simulate challenging scenarios in team training. Patients are not at risk and learning curves can be shortened. Advanced learners are able to train rare complications. Senior faculty member's presence is key to assess and debrief effective simulation training. In the field of vascular access surgery, simulation models are available for open as well as endovascular procedures. In this narrative review, we describe the theory of simulation, present simulation models in vascular (access) surgery, discuss the possible benefits for patient safety and the difficulties of implementing simulation in training.

Surgical Treatment of Recurrent Endometrial Cancer: Time for a Paradigm Shift.

BACKGROUND Although surgery represents the cornerstone treatment of endometrial cancer at initial diagnosis, scarce data are available in recurrent setting. The purpose of this study was to review the outcome of surgery in these patients. METHODS Medical records of all patients undergoing surgery for recurrent endometrial cancer at NCI Milano between January 2003 and January 2014 were reviewed. Survival was determined from the time of surgery for recurrence to last follow-up. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Differences in survival were analyzed using the log-rank test. The Fisher's exact test was used to compare optimal versus suboptimal cytoreduction against possible predictive factors. RESULTS Sixty-four patients were identified. Median age was 66 years. Recurrences were multiple in 38 % of the cases. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 65.6 %. Median OR time was 165 min, median postoperative hemoglobin drop was 2.4 g/dl, and median length hospital stay was 5.5 days. Eleven patients developed postoperative complications, but only four required surgical management. Estimated 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 42 and 19 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, only residual disease was associated with PFS. Estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 60 and 30 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, residual disease and histotype were associated with OS. At multivariate analysis, only performance status was associated with optimal cytoreduction. CONCLUSIONS Secondary cytoreduction in endometrial cancer is associated with long PFS and OS. The only factors associated with improved long-term outcome are the absence of residual disease at the end of surgical resection and histotype.

Desiccation of phyllosilicate-bearing samples as analog for desiccation cracks on Mars: Experimental setup and initial results

The surface of Mars is host to many regions displaying polygonal crack patterns that have been identified as potential desiccation cracks. These regions are mostly within Noachian-aged terrains and are closely associated with phyllosilicate occurrences and smectites in particular. We have built a laboratory setup that allows us to carry out desiccation experiments on Mars-analog materials in an effort to constrain the physical and chemical properties of sediments that display polygonal cracks. The setup is complemented by a pre-existing simulation chamber that enables the investigation of the spectral and photometric properties of analog materials in Mars-like conditions. The initial experiments that have been carried out show that (1) crack patterns are visible in smectite-bearing materials in varying concentrations down to similar to 10% smectite by weight, (2) chlorides, and potentially other salts, delay the onset of cracking and may even block it from occurring entirely, and (3) the polygonal patterns, while being indicative of the presence of phyllosilicates, cannot be used to differentiate between various phyllosilicate-bearing deposits. However, their size-scale and morphology yields important information regarding their thickness and the hydrological conditions at the time of formation. Furthermore, the complementary spectral measurements for some of the analog samples shows that crack patterns may develop in materials with such low concentrations of smectites that would not be expected to be identified using remote-sensing instruments. This may explain the presence of polygonal patterns on Mars in sediments that lack spectral confirmation of phyllosilicates. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Visualizing the Simulation of 3-D Underwater Sensor Networks

The majority of sensor network research deals with land-based networks, which are essentially two-dimensional, and thus the majority of simulation and animation tools also only handle such networks. Underwater sensor networks on the other hand, are essentially 3D networks because the depth at which a sensor node is located needs to be considered as well. Due to that additional dimension, specialized tools need to be used when conducting simulations for experimentation. The School of Engineering’s Underwater Sensor Network (UWSN) lab is conducting research on underwater sensor networks and requires simulation tools for 3D networks. The lab has extended NS-2, a widely used network simulator, so that it can simulate three-dimensional networks. However, NAM, a widely used network animator, currently only supports two-dimensional networks and no extensions have been implemented to give it three-dimensional capabilities. In this project, we develop a network visualization tool that functions similarly to NAM but is able to render network environments in full 3-D. It is able to take as input a NS-2 trace file (the same file taken as input by NAM), create the environment, position the sensor nodes, and animate the events of the simulation. Further, the visualization tool is easy to use, especially friendly to NAM users, as it is designed to follow the interfaces and functions similar to NAM. So far, the development has fulfilled the basic functionality. Future work includes fully functional capabilities for visualization and much improved user interfaces.

Systematic review of interventions designed to reduce screen time in children and adolescents

This descriptive systematic review describes intervention trials for children and youth that targeted screen time (ST) as a way to prevent or control obesity and measured ST, and at least one of the following: physical activity, dietary intake, and adiposity. Both “hands-on” (e.g., video games) and “hands free” (e.g., television viewing) ST were included. Published, completed intervention trials (k=12), not-yet-published, completed trials (k=6), and in-progress trials (k=11) were identified through searches of electronic databases, including trial registries and bibliographies of eligible study reports. Study characteristics of the 29 identified trials were coded and presented in evidence tables. Considerable attention was paid to the type of ST addressed, measures used, and the type of interventions. Based on the number of in-progress and not-yet-published trials, the number of completed, published reports will double in the next three years. Most of the studies were funded by federal sources. General populations, not restricted by race, gender, or weight status, were targets of most interventions with children ages 9-12 yeas as the modal age group. Most trials used randomized control trials in which the majority of control or comparison group received an intervention. The mean number of participants was 242.8 (SD=314.7) and interventions were delivered over an average of 10.5 months and consisted of approximately 16 sessions, with a total time of about eight hours. The majority of completed trials evaluate each of the four constructs, however, most studies have more than one measure to assess each construct (e.g., BMI and tricep skinfold thickness to evaluate adiposity) and rarely did studies use the same measures. This is likely why the majority of studies produced at least one significant intervention effect on each outcome that was assessed. The four major outcomes should be evaluated in all interventions attempting to reduce screen time in order to determine the mechanisms involved that may contribute to obesity. More importantly researchers should work together to determine the best measures to evaluate the four main constructs to allow studies to be compared. Another area for consensus is the definition of ST. ^

Impact of real time polymerase chain reaction technology on the therapeutic approach to treatment of staphylococcal infections

Can the early identification of the species of staphylococcus responsible for infection by the use of Real Time PCR technology influence the approach to the treatment of these infections? ^ This study was a retrospective cohort study in which two groups of patients were compared. The first group, ‘Physician Aware’ consisted of patients in whom physicians were informed of specific staphylococcal species and antibiotic sensitivity (using RT-PCR) at the time of notification of the gram stain. The second group, ‘Physician Unaware’ consisted of patients in whom treating physicians received the same information 24–72 hours later as a result of blood culture and antibiotic sensitivity determination. ^ The approach to treatment was compared between ‘Physician Aware’ and ‘Physician Unaware’ groups for three different microbiological diagnoses—namely MRSA, MSSA and no-SA (or coagulase negative Staphylococcus). ^ For a diagnosis of MRSA, the mean time interval to the initiation of Vancomycin therapy was 1.08 hours in the ‘Physician Aware’ group as compared to 5.84 hours in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group (p=0.34). ^ For a diagnosis of MSSA, the mean time interval to the initiation of specific anti-MSSA therapy with Nafcillin was 5.18 hours in the ‘Physician Aware’ group as compared to 49.8 hours in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group (p=0.007). Also, for the same diagnosis, the mean duration of empiric therapy in the ‘Physician Aware’ group was 19.68 hours as compared to 80.75 hours in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group (p=0.003) ^ For a diagnosis of no-SA or coagulase negative staphylococcus, the mean duration of empiric therapy was 35.65 hours in the ‘Physician Aware’ group as compared to 44.38 hours in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group (p=0.07). However, when treatment was considered a categorical variable and after exclusion of all cases where anti-MRS therapy was used for unrelated conditions, only 20 of 72 cases in the ‘Physician Aware’ group received treatment as compared to 48 of 106 cases in the ‘Physician Unaware’ group. ^ Conclusions. Earlier diagnosis of MRSA may not alter final treatment outcomes. However, earlier identification may lead to the earlier institution of measures to limit the spread of infection. The early diagnosis of MSSA infection, does lead to treatment with specific antibiotic therapy at an earlier stage of treatment. Also, the duration of empiric therapy is greatly reduced by early diagnosis. The early diagnosis of coagulase negative staphylococcal infection leads to a lower rate of unnecessary treatment for these infections as they are commonly considered contaminants. ^

Assessment of the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification by using techniques of mathematical statistics and simulation study

Objectives. This paper seeks to assess the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification in a variety of situations. ^ Methods and results. The effect of misspecification in regression can be approximated by evaluating the correlation between the correct specification and the misspecification of the outcome variable (Harris 2010).In this paper, three misspecified models (linear, categorical and fractional polynomial) were considered. In the first section, the mathematical method of calculating the correlation between correct and misspecified models with simple mathematical forms was derived and demonstrated. In the second section, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007-2008) were used to examine such correlations. Our study shows that comparing to linear or categorical models, the fractional polynomial models, with the higher correlations, provided a better approximation of the true relationship, which was illustrated by LOESS regression. In the third section, we present the results of simulation studies that demonstrate overall misspecification in regression can produce marked decreases in power with small sample sizes. However, the categorical model had greatest power, ranging from 0.877 to 0.936 depending on sample size and outcome variable used. The power of fractional polynomial model was close to that of linear model, which ranged from 0.69 to 0.83, and appeared to be affected by the increased degrees of freedom of this model.^ Conclusion. Correlations between alternative model specifications can be used to provide a good approximation of the effect on statistical power of misspecification when the sample size is large. When model specifications have known simple mathematical forms, such correlations can be calculated mathematically. Actual public health data from NHANES 2007-2008 were used as examples to demonstrate the situations with unknown or complex correct model specification. Simulation of power for misspecified models confirmed the results based on correlation methods but also illustrated the effect of model degrees of freedom on power.^

Integrated Data Sets of the EU FP5 Research Project ORFOIS: Origin and fate of biogenic particle fluxes in the ocean and their interactions with atmospheric CO2 concentrations as well as the marine sediment

For a reliable simulation of the time and space dependent CO2 redistribution between ocean and atmosphere an appropriate time dependent simulation of particle dynamics processes is essential but has not been carried out so far. The major difficulties were the lack of suitable modules for particle dynamics and early diagenesis (in order to close the carbon and nutrient budget) in ocean general circulation models, and the lack of an understanding of biogeochemical processes, such as the partial dissolution of calcareous particles in oversaturated water. The main target of ORFOIS was to fill in this gap in our knowledge and prediction capability infrastructure. This goal has been achieved step by step. At first comprehensive data bases (already existing data) of observations of relevance for the three major types of biogenic particles, organic carbon (POC), calcium carbonate (CaCO3), and biogenic silica (BSi or opal), as well as for refractory particles of terrestrial origin were collated and made publicly available.

Lagrangian back-tracing results for Kohnen station; output of time dependent numerical experiment with a 3D nested Antarctic ice sheet model

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves.