Prediction of Psychosis by Mismatch Negativity

BACKGROUND: To develop risk-adapted prevention of psychosis, an accurate estimation of the individual risk of psychosis at a given time is needed. Inclusion of biological parameters into multilevel prediction models is thought to improve predictive accuracy of models on the basis of clinical variables. To this aim, mismatch negativity (MMN) was investigated in a sample clinically at high risk, comparing individuals with and without subsequent conversion to psychosis. METHODS: At baseline, an auditory oddball paradigm was used in 62 subjects meeting criteria of a late risk at-state who remained antipsychotic-naive throughout the study. Median follow-up period was 32 months (minimum of 24 months in nonconverters, n = 37). Repeated-measures analysis of covariance was employed to analyze the MMN recorded at frontocentral electrodes; additional comparisons with healthy controls (HC, n = 67) and first-episode schizophrenia patients (FES, n = 33) were performed. Predictive value was evaluated by a Cox regression model. RESULTS: Compared with nonconverters, duration MMN in converters (n = 25) showed significantly reduced amplitudes across the six frontocentral electrodes; the same applied in comparison with HC, but not FES, whereas the duration MMN in in nonconverters was comparable to HC and larger than in FES. A prognostic score was calculated based on a Cox regression model and stratified into two risk classes, which showed significantly different survival curves. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate the duration MMN is significantly reduced in at-risk subjects converting to first-episode psychosis compared with nonconverters and may contribute not only to the prediction of conversion but also to a more individualized risk estimation and thus risk-adapted prevention.

Safety, effectiveness and predictors for early reoperation in therapeutic and prophylactic vertebroplasty: short-term results of a prospective case series of patients with osteoporotic vertebral fractures

Abstract Introduction Vertebroplasty (VP) is a cost-efficient alternative to kyphoplasty; however, regarding safety and vertebral body (VB) height restoration, it is considered inferior. We assessed the safety and efficacy of VP in alleviating pain, improving quality of life (QoL) and restoring alignment. Methods In a prospective monocenter case series from May 2007 until July 2008, there were 1,408 vertebroplasties performed during 319 interventions in 306 patients with traumatic, lytic and osteoporotic fractures. The 249 interventions in 233 patients performed because of osteoporotic vertebral fractures were analyzed regarding demographics, treatment and radiographic details, pain alleviation (VAS), QoL improvement (NASS and EQ-5D), complications and predictors for new fractures requiring a reoperation. Results The osteoporotic patient sample consisted of 76.7% (179) females with a median age of 80 years. A total of 54 males had a median age of 77 years. On average, there were 1.8 VBs fractured and 5 VBs treated. The preoperative pain was assessed by the visual analog scale (VAS) and decreased from 54.9 to 40.4 pts after 2 months and 31.2 pts after 6 months. Accordingly, the QoL on the EQ-5D measure (−0.6 to 1) improved from 0.35 pts before surgery to 0.56 pts after 2 and to 0.68 pts after 6 months. The preoperative Beck Index (anterior height/posterior height) improved from a mean of 0.64 preoperative to 0.76 postoperative, remained stable at 2 months and slightly deteriorated to 0.72 at 6 months postoperatively. There were cement leakages in 26% of the fractured VBs and in 1.4% of the prophylactically cemented VBs; there were symptoms in 4.3%, and most of them were temporary hypotension and one pulmonary cement embolism that remained asymptomatic. The univariate regression model revealed a tendency for a reduced risk for new or refractures on radiographs (OR = 2.61, 95% CI 0.92–7.38, p = 0.12) and reoperations (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 0.94–8.949, p = 0.1) when prophylactic augmentation was performed. The final multivariate regression model revealed male patients to have an about three times higher refracture risk (radiographic) (OR = 2.78, p = 0.02) at 6 months after surgery. Patients with a lumbar index fracture had an about three to five times higher refracture/reoperation risk than patients with a thoracic (OR = 0.33/0.35, p = 0.009/0.01) or thoracolumbar (OR = 0.32/0.22, p = 0.099/0.01) index fracture. Conclusion If routinely used, VP is a safe and efficacious treatment option for osteoporotic vertebral fractures with regard to pain relief and improvement of the QoL. Even segmental realignment can be partially achieved with proper patient positioning. Certain patient or fracture characteristics increase the risk for early radiographic refractures or new fractures, or a reoperation; a consequent prophylactic augmentation showed protective tendencies, but the study was underpowered for a final conclusion.

Real-World Performance of Longitudinal Barriers Struck by Large Trucks

Outside of relatively limited crash testing with large trucks, very little is known regarding the performance of traffic barriers subjected to real-world large truck impacts. The purpose of this study was to investigate real-world large truck impacts into traffic barriers to determine barrier crash involvement rates, the impact performance of barriers not specifically designed to redirect large trucks, and the real-world performance of large-truck-specific barriers. Data sources included the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (2000-2009), the General Estimates System (2000-2009) and 155 in-depth large truck-to-barrier crashes from the Large Truck Crash Causation Study. Large truck impacts with a longitudinal barrier were found to comprise 3 percent of all police-reported longitudinal barrier impacts and roughly the same proportion of barrier fatalities. Based on a logistic regression model predicting barrier penetration, large truck barrier penetration risk was found to increase by a factor of 6 for impacts with barriers designed primarily for passenger vehicles. Although large-truck-specific barriers were found to perform better than non-heavy vehicle specific barriers, the penetration rate of these barriers were found to be 17 percent. This penetration rate is especially a concern because the higher test level barriers are designed to protect other road users, not the occupants of the large truck. Surprisingly, barriers not specifically designed for large truck impacts were found to prevent large truck penetration approximately half of the time. This suggests that adding costlier higher test level barriers may not always be warranted, especially on roadways with lower truck volumes.

Mother-Child Spiritual Discourse: A Mixed Methods Study

Parents and children, starting at very young ages, discuss religious and spiritual issues¿where we come from, what happens to us after we die, is there a God, and so on. Unfortunately, few studies have analyzed the content and structure of parent-child conversation about religion and spirituality (Boyatzis & Janicki, 2003; Dollahite & Thatcher, 2009), and most studies have relied on self-report with no direct observation. The current study examined mother-child (M-C) spiritual discourse to learn about its content, structure, and frequency through a survey inventory in combination with direct video observation using a novel structured task. We also analyzed how mothers¿ religiosity along several major dimensions related to their communication behaviors within both methods. Mothers (N = 39, M age = 40) of children aged 3-12 completed a survey packet on M-C spiritual discourse and standard measures of mothers¿ religious fundamentalism, intrinsic religiosity, sanctification of parenting (how much the mother saw herself as doing God¿s work as a parent), and a new measure of parental openness to children¿s spirituality. Then, in a structured task in our lab, mothers (N = 33) and children (M age = 7.33) watched a short film or read a short book that explored death in an age-appropriate manner and then engaged in a videotaped conversation about the movie or book and their religious or spiritual beliefs. Frequency of M-C spiritual discourse was positively related to mothers¿ religious fundamentalism (r = .71, p = .00), intrinsic religiosity (r = .77, p = .00), and sanctification of parenting (r = .79, p = .00), but, surprisingly, was inversely related to mothers¿ v openness to child¿s spirituality (r = -.52, p = .00). Survey data showed that the two most common topics discussed were God (once a week) and religion as it relates to moral issues (once a week). According to mothers their children¿s most common method of initiating spiritual discourse was to repeat what he or she has heard parents or family say about religious issues (M = 2.97; once a week); mothers¿ most common method was to describe their own religious/spiritual beliefs (M = 2.92). Spiritual discourse most commonly occurred either at bedtime or mealtime as reported by 26% of mothers, with the most common triggers reported as daily routine/random thoughts (once a week) and observations of nature (once a week). Mothers¿ most important goals for spiritual discourse were to let their children know that they love them (M = 3.72; very important) and to help them become a good and moral person (M = 3.67; very important). A regression model showed that significant variance in frequency of mother-child spiritual discourse (R2 = .84, p = .00) was predicted by the mothers¿ importance of goals during discourse (ß = 0.46, p = .00), frequency that the mother¿s spirituality was deepened through spiritual discourse (ß = 0.39, p = .00), and the mother¿s fundamentalism (ß = 0.20, p = .05). In a separate regression, the mother¿s comfort in the structured task (ß = 0.70, p = .00), and the number of open-ended questions she asked (ß = -0.26, p = .03) predicted the reciprocity between mother and child (R2 = .62, p = .00). In addition, the mother¿s age (ß = 0.22, p = .059) and comfort during the task (ß = 0.73, p = .00) predicted the child¿s engagement within the structured task. Other findings and theoretical and methodological implications will be discussed.

Impact of left ventricular hypertrophy late after aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

AIMS: The goal of this study was to assess the prevalence of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy in patients with aortic stenosis late (>6 months) after aortic valve replacement and its impact on cardiac-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single tertiary centre, echocardiographic data of LV muscle mass were collected. Detailed information of medical history and angiographic data were gathered. Ninety-nine of 213 patients (46%) had LV hypertrophy late (mean 5.8 +/- 5.4 years) after aortic valve replacement. LV hypertrophy was associated with impaired exercise capacity, higher New York Heart Association dyspnoea class, a tendency for more frequent chest pain expressed as higher Canadian Cardiovascular Society class, and more rehospitalizations. 24% of patients with normal LV mass vs. 39% of patients with LV hypertrophy reported cardiac-related morbidity (p = 0.04). In a multivariate logistic regression model, LV hypertrophy was an independent predictor of cardiac-related morbidity (odds ratio 2.31, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.41), after correction for gender, baseline ejection fraction, and coronary artery disease and its risk factors. Thirty seven deaths occurred during a total of 1959 patient years of follow-up (mean follow-up 9.6 years). Age at aortic valve replacement (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.47, for every 5 years increase in age), coexisting coronary artery disease at the time of surgery (hazard ratio 3.36, 95% CI 1.31 to 8.62), and smoking (hazard ratio 4.82, 95% CI 1.72 to 13.45) were independent predictors of overall mortality late after surgery, but not LV hypertrophy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with aortic valve replacement for isolated aortic stenosis, LV hypertrophy late after surgery is associated with increased morbidity.

Sleep-wake habits and disorders in a series of 100 adult epilepsy patients--a prospective study

The aim of the study was to assess sleep-wake habits and disorders and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in an unselected outpatient epilepsy population. Sleep-wake habits and presence of sleep disorders were assessed by means of a clinical interview and a standard questionnaire in 100 consecutive patients with epilepsy and 90 controls. The questionnaire includes three validated instruments: the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) for EDS, SA-SDQ for sleep apnea (SA), and the Ullanlinna Narcolepsy Scale (UNS) for narcolepsy. Sleep complaints were reported by 30% of epilepsy patients compared to 10% of controls (p=0.001). The average total sleep time was similar in both groups. Insufficient sleep times were suspected in 24% of patients and 33% of controls. Sleep maintenance insomnia was more frequent in epilepsy patients (52% vs. 38%, p=0.06), whereas nightmares (6% vs. 16%, p=0.04) and bruxism (10% vs. 19%, p=0.07) were more frequent in controls. Sleep onset insomnia (34% vs. 28%), EDS (ESS >or=10, 19% vs. 14%), SA (9% vs. 3%), restless legs symptoms (RL-symptoms, 18% vs. 12%) and most parasomnias were similarly frequent in both groups. In a stepwise logistic regression model loud snoring and RL-symptoms were found to be the only independent predictors of EDS in epilepsy patients. In conclusion, sleep-wake habits and the frequency of most sleep disorders are similar in non-selected epilepsy patients as compared to controls. In epilepsy patients, EDS was predicted by a history of loud snoring and RL-symptoms but not by SA or epilepsy-related variables (including type of epilepsy, frequency of seizures, and number of antiepileptic drugs).

Gauss-Seidel Estimation of Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Poisson Modeling of Spatially Varying Disease Rates

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide an elegant framework for the analysis of correlated data. Due to the non-closed form of the likelihood, GLMMs are often fit by computational procedures like penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL). Special cases of these models are generalized linear models (GLMs), which are often fit using algorithms like iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). High computational costs and memory space constraints often make it difficult to apply these iterative procedures to data sets with very large number of cases. This paper proposes a computationally efficient strategy based on the Gauss-Seidel algorithm that iteratively fits sub-models of the GLMM to subsetted versions of the data. Additional gains in efficiency are achieved for Poisson models, commonly used in disease mapping problems, because of their special collapsibility property which allows data reduction through summaries. Convergence of the proposed iterative procedure is guaranteed for canonical link functions. The strategy is applied to investigate the relationship between ischemic heart disease, socioeconomic status and age/gender category in New South Wales, Australia, based on outcome data consisting of approximately 33 million records. A simulation study demonstrates the algorithm's reliability in analyzing a data set with 12 million records for a (non-collapsible) logistic regression model.

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

Modeling multilevel sleep transitional data via Poisson log-linear multilevel models

This paper proposes Poisson log-linear multilevel models to investigate population variability in sleep state transition rates. We specifically propose a Bayesian Poisson regression model that is more flexible, scalable to larger studies, and easily fit than other attempts in the literature. We further use hierarchical random effects to account for pairings of individuals and repeated measures within those individuals, as comparing diseased to non-diseased subjects while minimizing bias is of epidemiologic importance. We estimate essentially non-parametric piecewise constant hazards and smooth them, and allow for time varying covariates and segment of the night comparisons. The Bayesian Poisson regression is justified through a re-derivation of a classical algebraic likelihood equivalence of Poisson regression with a log(time) offset and survival regression assuming piecewise constant hazards. This relationship allows us to synthesize two methods currently used to analyze sleep transition phenomena: stratified multi-state proportional hazards models and log-linear models with GEE for transition counts. An example data set from the Sleep Heart Health Study is analyzed.

CD4+ T-cell count increase in HIV-1-infected patients with suppressed viral load within 1 year after start of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: CD4+ T-cell recovery in patients with continuous suppression of plasma HIV-1 viral load (VL) is highly variable. This study aimed to identify predictive factors for long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in treatment-naive patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: Treatment-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study reaching two VL measurements <50 copies/ml >3 months apart during the 1st year of cART were included (n=1816 patients). We studied CD4+ T-cell dynamics until the end of suppression or up to 5 years, subdivided into three periods: 1st year, years 2-3 and years 4-5 of suppression. Multiple median regression adjusted for repeated CD4+ T-cell measurements was used to study the dependence of CD4+ T-cell slopes on clinical covariates and drug classes. RESULTS: Median CD4+ T-cell increases following VL suppression were 87, 52 and 19 cells/microl per year in the three periods. In the multiple regression model, median CD4+ T-cell increases over all three periods were significantly higher for female gender, lower age, higher VL at cART start, CD4+ T-cell <650 cells/microl at start of the period and low CD4+ T-cell increase in the previous period. Patients on tenofovir showed significantly lower CD4+ T-cell increases compared with stavudine. CONCLUSIONS: In our observational study, long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in drug-naive patients with suppressed VL was higher in regimens without tenofovir. The clinical relevance of these findings must be confirmed in, ideally, clinical trials or large, collaborative cohort projects but could influence treatment of older patients and those starting cART at low CD4+ T-cell levels.

Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China

A great increase of private car ownership took place in China from 1980 to 2009 with the development of the economy. To explain the relationship between car ownership and economic and social changes, an ordinary least squares linear regression model is developed using car ownership per capita as the dependent variable with GDP, savings deposits and highway mileages per capita as the independent variables. The model is tested and corrected for econometric problems such as spurious correlation and cointegration. Finally, the regression model is used to project oil consumption by the Chinese transportation sector through 2015. The result shows that about 2.0 million barrels of oil will be consumed by private cars in conservative scenario, and about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day in high case scenario in 2015. Both of them are much higher than the consumption level of 2009, which is 1.9 million barrels per day. It also shows that the annual growth rate of oil demand by transportation is 2.7% - 3.1% per year in the conservative scenario, and 6.9% - 7.3% per year in the high case forecast scenario from 2010 to 2015. As a result, actions like increasing oil efficiency need to be taken to deal with challenges of the increasing demand for oil.

Publication and non-publication of clinical trials: longitudinal study of applications submitted to a research ethics committee

BACKGROUND: Not all clinical trials are published, which may distort the evidence that is available in the literature. We studied the publication rate of a cohort of clinical trials and identified factors associated with publication and nonpublication of results. METHODS: We analysed the protocols of randomized clinical trials of drug interventions submitted to the research ethics committee of University Hospital (Inselspital) Bern, Switzerland from 1988 to 1998. We identified full articles published up to 2006 by searching the Cochrane CENTRAL database (issue 02/2006) and by contacting investigators. We analyzed factors associated with the publication of trials using descriptive statistics and logistic regression models. RESULTS: 451 study protocols and 375 corresponding articles were analyzed. 233 protocols resulted in at least one publication, a publication rate of 52%. A total of 366 (81%) trials were commercially funded, 47 (10%) had non-commercial funding. 346 trials (77%) were multi-centre studies and 272 of these (79%) were international collaborations. In the adjusted logistic regression model non-commercial funding (Odds Ratio [OR] 2.42, 95% CI 1.14-5.17), multi-centre status (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.03-4.24), international collaboration (OR 1.87, 95% CI 0.99-3.55) and a sample size above the median of 236 participants (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.23-3.39) were associated with full publication. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of applications to an ethics committee in Switzerland, only about half of clinical drug trials were published. Large multi-centre trials with non-commercial funding were more likely to be published than other trials, but most trials were funded by industry.

Androgen and gonadotropin patterns differ in HIV-1-infected men who develop lipoatrophy during antiretroviral therapy: a case-control study

OBJECTIVES: We compared androgen and gonadotropin values in HIV-infected men who did and did not develop lipoatrophy on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: From a population of 136 treatment-naïve male Caucasians under successful zidovudine/lamivudine-based cART, the 10 patients developing lipoatrophy (cases) were compared with 87 randomly chosen controls. Plasma levels of free testosterone (fT), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone (LH) were measured at baseline and after 2 years of cART. RESULTS: At baseline, 60% of the cases and 71% of the controls showed abnormally low fT values. LH levels were normal or low in 67 and 94% of the patients, respectively, indicating a disturbance of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. fT levels did not significantly change after 2 years of cART. Cases showed a significant increase in LH levels, while controls showed a significant increase in DHEA levels. In a multivariate logistic regression model, lipoatrophy was associated with higher baseline DHEA levels (P=0.04), an increase in LH levels during cART (P=0.001), a lower body mass index and greater age. CONCLUSIONS: Hypogonadism is present in the majority of HIV-infected patients. The development of cART-related lipoatrophy is associated with an increase in LH and a lack of increase in DHEA levels.

Comparison between two caller groups of a medical call centre in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES: The incidence distribution of triage advice in the medical call centre Medi24 and the pattern of service utilisation were analysed with respect to two groups of callers with different insurance schemes. Individuals having contracted insurance of the Medi24 model could use the telephone consultation service of the medical call centre Medi24 (mainly part of the mandatory basic health insurance) voluntarily and free of charge whereas individuals holding an insurance policy of the Telmed model (special contract within the mandatory basic health insurance with a premium discount ranging from 8% to 12%) were obliged to have a telephone consultation before arranging an appointment with a medical doctor. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in the medical call centre Medi24 based on all triage datasets of the Medi24 and Telmed groups collected during the one year period from July 1st 2005 to June 30th 2006. The distribution of the six different urgency levels within the two groups and their respective pattern of service utilisation was determined. In a multivariable logistic regression model the Odds Ratio for every enquiry originating from the Telmed group versus those originating from the Medi24 group was calculated. RESULTS: During a one-year period 48 388 triage requests reached the medical call centre Medi24, 56% derived from the Telmed group and 44% from the Medi24 group. Within the Medi24 group more than 25% of the individuals received self-care advice, within the Telmed group, on the other hand, only about 18% received such advice. In contrast, 27% of the Telmed triage requests but only 18% of the Medi24 triage requests resulted in the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor. The probability that an individual of the Telmed group obtained the advice to go to the accident and emergency department was lower than for an individual of the Medi24 group (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60-0.99). Likewise, the probability of self-care advice was decreased in regard to the Medi24 group (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.85). However, regarding the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor, the Telmed group was represented more frequently than the Medi24 group (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.28-1.44). CONCLUSION: In respect of the triage advice, the Telmed group differed significantly from the Medi24 group within all urgency levels. The differences between the two groups in respect of the advice given were still less pronounced than expected against the background of their different contract conditions and the disparate temporal pattern of utilisation. We interprete this finding with the fact that appraising the urgency of health problems appropriately seems to be very difficult for the majority of people seeking advice.