Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

Individual differences in early language learning: a study of English learners of French

The present longitudinal study examines the interaction of learner variables (gender, motivation, self-efficacy and first language literacy) and their influence on second language learning outcomes. The study follows English learners of French from Year 5 in primary school (aged 9-10) to the first year in secondary school (Year 7 aged 11-12). Language outcomes were measured by two oral production tasks; a sentence repetition task and a photo description task both of which were administered at three time points. Longitudinal data on learner attitudes and motivation were collected via questionnaires. Teacher assessment data for general first language literacy attainment were also provided. The results show a great deal of variation in learner attitudes and outcomes and that there is a complex relationship between first language literacy, self-efficacy, gender and attainment. For example, in general, girls held more positive attitudes to boys and were more successful. However, the inclusion of first language ability, which explained 30-40% of variation, shows that gender differences in attitudes and outcomes are likely mediated by first language literacy and prior learning experience.

Individual and organisational leadership: the shared approach

Purpose - this paper focuses on reducing the margin for leadership error in meeting strategic aims by forming a more robust approach to developing a broader and more reliable set of leadership skills to provide a greater likelihood of strategic alignment between corporate and individual need, increasing both of their respective shelve lives.

Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multi-model study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

Inequalities in dental services utilization among Brazilian low-income children: the role of individual determinants

Objectives: To assess the role of the individual determinants on the inequalities of dental services utilization among low-income children living in the working area of Brazilian`s federal Primary Health Care program, which is called Family Health Program (FHP), in a big city in Southern Brazil. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study was performed. The sample included 350 children, ages 0 to 14 years, whose parents answered a questionnaire about their socioeconomic conditions, perceived needs, oral hygiene habits, and access to dental services. The data analysis was performed according to a conceptual framework based on Andersen`s behavioral model of health services use. Multivariate models of logistic regression analysis instructed the hypothesis on covariates for never having had a dental visit. Results: Thirty one percent of the surveyed children had never had a dental visit. In the bivariate analysis, higher proportion of children who had never had a dental visit was found among the very young, those with inadequate oral hygiene habits, those without perceived need of dental care, and those whose family homes were under absent ownership. The mechanisms of social support showed to be important enabling factors: children attending schools/kindergartens and being regularly monitored by the FHP teams had higher odds of having gone to the dentist, even after adjusting for socioeconomic, demographic, and need variables. Conclusions: The conceptual framework has confirmed the presence of social and psychosocial inequalities on the utilization pattern of dental services for low-income children. The individual determinants seem to be important predictors of access.

Assessment of inbreeding depression in a Guzerat dairy herd: Effects of individual increase in inbreeding coefficients on production and reproduction

Influences of inbreeding on daily milk yield (DMY), age at first calving (AFC), and calving intervals (CI) were determined on a highly inbred zebu dairy subpopulation of the Guzerat breed. Variance components were estimated using animal models in single-trait analyses. Two approaches were employed to estimate inbreeding depression: using individual increase in inbreeding coefficients or using inbreeding coefficients as possible covariates included in the statistical models. The pedigree file included 9,915 animals, of which 9,055 were inbred, with an average inbreeding coefficient of 15.2%. The maximum inbreeding coefficient observed was 49.45%, and the average inbreeding for the females still in the herd during the analysis was 26.42%. Heritability estimates were 0.27 for DMY and 0.38 for AFC. The genetic variance ratio estimated with the random regression model for CI ranged around 0.10. Increased inbreeding caused poorer performance in DMY, AFC, and CI. However, some of the cows with the highest milk yield were among the highly inbred animals in this subpopulation. Individual increase in inbreeding used as a covariate in the statistical models accounted for inbreeding depression while avoiding overestimation that may result when fitting inbreeding coefficients.

Transition redshift: new kinematic constraints from supernovae

The transition redshift (deceleration/acceleration) is discussed by expanding the deceleration parameter to first order around its present value. A detailed study is carried out by considering two different parametrizations, q = q(0) + q(1)z and q = q(0) + q(1)z(1 + z)(-1), and the associated free parameters (q(0), q(1)) are constrained by three different supernovae (SNe) samples. A previous analysis by Riess et al. using the first expansion is slightly improved and confirmed in light of their recent data (Gold07 sample). However, by fitting the model with the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) type Ia sample, we find that the best fit to the redshift transition is z(t) = 0.61, instead of z(t) = 0.46 as derived by the High-z Supernovae Search (HZSNS) team. This result based in the SNLS sample is also in good agreement with the sample of Davis et al., z(t) = 0.60(-0.11)(+0.28) (1 sigma). Such results are in line with some independent analyses and accommodate more easily the concordance flat model (Lambda CDM). For both parametrizations, the three SNe Ia samples considered favour recent acceleration and past deceleration with a high degree of statistical confidence level. All the kinematic results presented here depend neither on the validity of general relativity nor on the matter-energy contents of the Universe.

Could the cosmic acceleration be transient? A cosmographic evaluation

A possible slowing down of the cosmic expansion is investigated through a cosmographic approach. By expanding the luminosity distance to fourth order and fitting the SN Ia data from the most recent compilations (Union, Constitution and Union 2), the marginal likelihood distributions for the deceleration parameter today suggest a recent reduction of the cosmic acceleration and indicate that there is a considerable probability for q(0) > 0. Also in contrast to the prediction of the Lambda CDM model, the cosmographic q(z) reconstruction permits a cosmic expansion history where the cosmic acceleration could already have peaked and be presently slowing down, which would imply that the recent accelerated expansion of the universe is a transient phenomenon. It is also shown that to describe a transient acceleration the luminosity distance needs to be expanded at least to fourth order. The present cosmographic results depend neither on the validity of general relativity nor on the matter-energy contents of the universe.

The effect of a single supernova explosion on the cuspy density profile of a small-mass dark matter halo

Some observations of galaxies, and in particular dwarf galaxies, indicate a presence of cored density profiles in apparent contradiction with cusp profiles predicted by dark matter N-body simulations. We constructed an analytical model, using particle distribution functions (DFs), to show how a supernova (SN) explosion can transform a cusp density profile in a small-mass dark matter halo into a cored one. Considering the fact that an SN efficiently removes matter from the centre of the first haloes, we study the effect of mass removal through an SN perturbation in the DFs. We find that the transformation from a cusp into a cored profile occurs even for changes as small as 0.5 per cent of the total energy of the halo, which can be produced by the expulsion of matter caused by a single SN explosion.

Hydrodynamical simulations of Galactic fountains - II. Evolution of multiple fountains

The ejection of gas out of the disc in late-type galaxies is related to star formation and is mainly due to the explosion of Type II supernovae (SN II). In a previous paper, we considered the evolution of a single Galactic fountain, that is, a fountain powered by a single SN cluster. Using three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations, we studied in detail the fountain flow and its dependence with several factors, such as the Galactic rotation, the distance to the Galactic centre and the presence of a hot gaseous halo. As a natural followup, this paper investigates the dynamical evolution of multiple generations of fountains generated by similar to 100 OB associations. We have considered the observed size-frequency distribution of young stellar clusters within the Galaxy in order to appropriately fuel the multiple fountains in our simulations. Most of the results of the previous paper have been confirmed, like for example the formation of intermediate velocity clouds above the disc by the multiple fountains. Also, this work confirms the localized nature of the fountain flows: the freshly ejected metals tend to fall back close to the same Galactocentric region where they are delivered. Therefore, the fountains do not change significantly the radial profile of the disc chemical abundance. The multiple fountain simulations also allowed us to consistently calculate the feedback of the star formation on the halo gas. We found that the hot gas gains about 10 per cent of all the SN II energy produced in the disc. Thus, the SN feedback more than compensate for the halo radiative losses and allow for a quasi steady-state disc-halo circulation to exist. Finally, we have also considered the possibility of mass infall from the intergalactic medium and its interaction with the clouds that are formed by the fountains. Though our simulations are not suitable to reproduce the slow rotational pattern that is typically observed in the haloes around the disc galaxies, they indicate that the presence of an external gas infall may help to slow down the rotation of the gas in the clouds and thus the amount of angular momentum that they transfer to the coronal gas, as previously suggested in the literature.

Nested diets: a novel pattern of individual-level resource use

Many generalist populations may actually be composed of relatively specialist individuals. This `individual specialization` may have important ecological and evolutionary implications. Although this phenomenon has been documented in more than one hundred taxa, it is still unclear how individuals within a population actually partition resources. Here we applied several methods based on network theory to investigate the intrapopulation patterns of resource use in the gracile mouse opossum Gracilinanus microtarsus. We found evidence of significant individual specialization in this species and that the diets of specialists are nested within the diets of generalists. This novel pattern is consistent with a recently proposed model of optimal foraging and implies strong asymmetry in the interactions among individuals of a population.

The nested assembly of individual-resource networks

P>1. Much of the current understanding of ecological systems is based on theory that does not explicitly take into account individual variation within natural populations. However, individuals may show substantial variation in resource use. This variation in turn may be translated into topological properties of networks that depict interactions among individuals and the food resources they consume (individual-resource networks). 2. Different models derived from optimal diet theory (ODT) predict highly distinct patterns of trophic interactions at the individual level that should translate into distinct network topologies. As a consequence, individual-resource networks can be useful tools in revealing the incidence of different patterns of resource use by individuals and suggesting their mechanistic basis. 3. In the present study, using data from several dietary studies, we assembled individual-resource networks of 10 vertebrate species, previously reported to show interindividual diet variation, and used a network-based approach to investigate their structure. 4. We found significant nestedness, but no modularity, in all empirical networks, indicating that (i) these populations are composed of both opportunistic and selective individuals and (ii) the diets of the latter are ordered as predictable subsets of the diets of the more opportunistic individuals. 5. Nested patterns are a common feature of species networks, and our results extend its generality to trophic interactions at the individual level. This pattern is consistent with a recently proposed ODT model, in which individuals show similar rank preferences but differ in their acceptance rate for alternative resources. Our findings therefore suggest a common mechanism underlying interindividual variation in resource use in disparate taxa.