PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

"Der Schimmelreiter". Theodor Storms Spiel mit biographischen Narrativen

Biographische Narrative gehören in der Neuzeit zum festen Erzählinventar und werden gerade im Realismus häufig eingesetzt. Im „Schimmelreiter“ (1888) inszeniert Storm ein raffiniertes Spiel mit biographischen Mustern. In traditionellen Lesarten erscheint Hauke Haiens Lebensweg entweder durch den Aberglauben oder die freie Vernunft und Tatkraft bestimmt. Weiß man, dass Storm aufmerksam den wissenschaftlichen Wandel des Menschenbildes im 19. Jahrhundert verfolgt hat, liegt eine dritte biographische Deutung nahe: Der Deichgraf trägt psychopathische Züge eines Neurasthenikers, der sich verbissen auf die Rolle des Aufklärers konzentriert und deshalb die Grenzen seiner eigenen Natur nicht richtig einzuschätzen vermag.

Egalitarianism under Earmark Constraints

Agents with single-peaked preferences share a resource coming from different suppliers; each agent is connected to only a subset of suppliers. Examples include workload balancing, sharing earmarked funds, and rationing utilities after a storm. Unlike in the one supplier model, in a Pareto optimal allocation agents who get more than their peak from underdemanded suppliers, coexist with agents who get less from overdemanded suppliers. Our Egalitarian solution is the Lorenz dominant Pareto optimal allocation. It treats agents with equal demands as equally as the connectivity constraints allow. Together, Strategyproofness, Pareto Optimality, and Equal Treatment of Equals, characterize our solution.

Influence of platform switching on bone-level alterations: a three-year randomized clinical trial

The concept of platform switching has been introduced to implant dentistry based on clinical observations of reduced peri-implant crestal bone loss. However, published data are controversial, and most studies are limited to 12 months. The aim of the present randomized clinical trial was to test the hypothesis that platform switching has a positive impact on crestal bone-level changes after 3 years. Two implants with a diameter of 4 mm were inserted crestally in the posterior mandible of 25 patients. The intraindividual allocation of platform switching (3.3-mm platform) and the standard implant (4-mm platform) was randomized. After 3 months of submerged healing, single-tooth crowns were cemented. Patients were followed up at short intervals for monitoring of healing and oral hygiene. Statistical analysis for the influence of time and platform type on bone levels employed the Brunner-Langer model. At 3 years, the mean radiographic peri-implant bone loss was 0.69 ± 0.43 mm (platform switching) and 0.74 ± 0.57 mm (standard platform). The mean intraindividual difference was 0.05 ± 0.58 mm (95% confidence interval: -0.19, 0.29). Crestal bone-level alteration depended on time (p < .001) but not on platform type (p = .363). The present randomized clinical trial could not confirm the hypothesis of a reduced peri-implant crestal bone loss, when implants had been restored according to the concept of platform switching.

Plasma levels of mannan-binding lectin (MBL)-associated serine proteases (MASPs) and MBL-associated protein in cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases

Growing evidence suggests a prominent role of the complement system in the pathogenesis of cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD). Mannan-binding lectin-associated serine proteases (MASPs) MASP-1 and MASP-2 of the complement lectin pathway contribute to clot formation and may represent an important link between inflammation and thrombosis. MBL-associated protein MAp44 has shown cardioprotective effects in murine models. However, MAp44 has never been measured in patients with CVD and data on MASP levels in CVD are scarce. Our aim was to investigate for the first time plasma levels of MAp44 and MASP-1, -2, -3 concomitantly in patients with CVD. We performed a pilot study in 50 healthy volunteers, in stable coronary artery disease (CAD) patients with one-vessel (n = 51) or three-vessel disease (n = 53) and age-matched controls with normal coronary arteries (n = 53), 49 patients after myocardial infarction (MI) and 66 patients with acute ischaemic stroke. We measured MAp44 and MASP-1 levels by in-house time-resolved immunofluorometric assays. MASP-2 and MASP-3 levels were measured using commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits. MASP-1 levels were highest in subacute MI patients and lowest in acute stroke patients. MASP-2 levels were lower in MI and stroke patients compared with controls and CAD patients. MASP-3 and MAp44 levels did not differ between groups. MASP or MAp44 levels were not associated with severity of disease. MASP and MAp44 levels were associated with cardiovascular risk factors including dyslipidaemia, obesity and hypertension. Our results suggest that MASP levels may be altered in vascular diseases. Larger studies are needed to confirm our results and elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Pelagic molybdenum concentration anomalies and the impact of sediment resuspension on the molybdenum budget in two tidal systems of the North Sea

The seasonal dynamics of molybdenum (Mo) were studied in the water column of two tidal basins of the German Wadden Sea (Sylt-Rømø and Spiekeroog) between 2007 and 2011. In contrast to its conservative behaviour in the open ocean, both, losses of more than 50% of the usual concentration level of Mo in seawater and enrichments up to 20% were observed repeatedly in the water column of the study areas. During early summer, Mo removal by adsorption on algae-derived organic matter (e.g. after Phaeocystis blooms) is postulated to be a possible mechanism. Mo bound to organic aggregates is likely transferred to the surface sediment where microbial decomposition enriches Mo in the pore water. First δ98/95Mo data of the study area disclose residual Mo in the open water column being isotopically heavier than MOMo (Mean Ocean Molybdenum) during a negative Mo concentration anomaly, whereas suspended particulate matter shows distinctly lighter values. Based on field observations a Mo isotope enrichment factor of ε = −0.3‰ has been determined which was used to argue against sorption on metal oxide surfaces. It is suggested here that isotope fractionation is caused by biological activity and association to organic matter. Pelagic Mo concentration anomalies exceeding the theoretical salinity-based concentration level, on the other hand, cannot be explained by replenishment via North Sea waters alone and require a supply of excess Mo. Laboratory experiments with natural anoxic tidal flat sediments and modelled sediment displacement during storm events suggest fast and effective Mo release during the resuspension of anoxic sediments in oxic seawater as an important process for a recycling of sedimentary sulphide bound Mo into the water column.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Caring Minds

Welcome from Dean Patricia Starck The Face of Health Care Leading Technology School of Nursing Collaborates to Initiate Texas Medical Center’s First Digital Repository Nursing Research, A Growing Field Nursing in the Wake of the Storm Profile: Huaping Liu, RN, PhD, Dean and Associate Professor, School of Nursing at Peking Union Medical College Newsbrief: Planning for the Future with a New Doctor of Nursing Practice Program in Fall 2006 Newsbrief: Fast Track Nursing Program Gives Students a Speedy Start Profile: Susan Bankston, RN, BSN, Psychiatric Nursing, Currently enrolled in the MSN to DSN track Newsbrief: University of Texas Health Services Reports Outstanding Achievements in FY’05 Student Grants Newsbrief: New Degree Program Develops Leadership and Business Skills for Today’s Nurses Profile: Pamela Klauer Triolo, PhD, RN, FAAN Clinical Professor of Nursing Director, Nursing Leadership and Administration in Health Systems Newsbrief: Successful Luncheon Completes $1 Million Endowment UT School of Nursing Building Recognized as Blending Form and Function Faculty Scholarship Endowed Faculty Positions

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Stable-Isotopic Composition of Precipitation Over the Northern Slope of the Central Himalaya

Stable-water-isotope data (deltaD and delta(18)O) from three groups of samples (fresh-snow and snow-pit samples collected on Qomolangma (Mount Everest) and Xixabangma during field seasons 1997,1998 and 2001, and precipitation samples collected at Tingri station during summer 2000) are presented and used to survey the isotopic composition of precipitation over the northern slope of the central Himalaya. Multi-year snow-pit samples on Qomolangma have a local meteoric water-line (slope = 8) close to the global value. Deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8delta(18)O) values at Tingri are much lower than those in fresh snow from Qomolangma, probably due to differences in moisture source and air-mass trajectories as well as local weather conditions. There is no obvious seasonal trend for d values in the Qomolangma region. A negative relationship exists between delta(18)O and d values in both fresh snow on Qomolangma and precipitation at Tingri. Fresh-snow samples collected from different altitudes on Xixabangma allow us to investigate the altitude effect on delta(18)O values in snow. Of four storm events, only one has an obvious altitude effect on delta(18)O variation and a very low gradient of -0.1% per 100 in elevation.

Preliminary Results from the Chemical Records of an 80.4 M Ice Core Recovered from East Rongbuk Glacier, Qomolangma (Mount Everest), Himalaya

High-resolution chemical records from an 80.4 m ice core from the central Himalaya demonstrate climatic and environmental changes since 1844. The chronological net accumulation series shows a sharp decrease from the mid-1950s, which is coincident with the widely observed glacier retreat. A negative correlation is found between the ice-core delta(18)O record and the monsoon precipitation for Indian region 7. The temporal variation of the terrestrial ions (Ca2+ and Mg2+) is controlled by both the monsoon precipitation for Indian regions 3,7 and 8, located directly south and west of the Himalaya, and the dust-storm duration and frequency in the northern arid regions, such as the Taklimakan desert, China. The NH4+ profile is fairly flat until the 1940s, then substantially increases until the end of the 1980s, with a slight decrease during the 1990s which may reflect new agricultural practices. The SO42- and NO3- profiles show an apparent increasing trend, especially during the period 1940s-80s. Moreover, SO42- concentrations for the East Rongbuk Glacier core are roughly double that of the nearby Dasuopu core at Xixabangma, Himalaya, due to local human activity including that of climbing teams who use gasoline for cooking, energy and transport.

Chemical Composition of Fresh Snow from Glaciar Marinelli, Tierra Del Fuego, Chile

A fresh-snow sampling campaign was conducted during the late austral summer of 2006 in the accumulation zone of Glaciar Marinelli, located in the Cordillera Darwin, Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Snow samples were analyzed for stable isotopes (delta(18)O, major soluble ions (Na', K', Ca, Mg, a NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-), MS(-)) and major and trace elements (Na, Mg, Al, Fe, Ca, Sr, Cd, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Dy, Ho, Er, Bi, U, As, Ti, V, Cr, Mn). The dominance of marine chemistry resembles that in studies from Patagonian glaciers. Snow chemistry was dominantly loaded by marine species (Cl(-), Na(+) and ssSO(4)(2-)), while contributions of crustal species (e.g. Al and Fe) were very low. Empirical orthogonal function analysis suggests two possible dust sources, one represented by Al and Fe and the other by La, Ce and Pr. Enrichment-factor calculations suggest the majority of elements are within average upper-crustal ratios, but major enrichments of Bi and Cd (hundreds of times) suggest possible anthropogenic sources. Linear correlation of delta(18)O and barometric pressure (r = 0.60, p < 0.007) suggests a potential 'amount effect' relationship between depleted delta(18)O ratios and stronger storm conditions (e.g. greater precipitation). The snow-chemistry records from Glaciar Marinelli are the first measured in Tierra del Fuego, the southernmost glaciated region outside Antarctica.