Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. I. Underlying asymmetry

Matheron's usual variogram estimator can result in unreliable variograms when data are strongly asymmetric or skewed. Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. This paper examines the effects of underlying asymmetry on the variogram and on the accuracy of prediction, and the second one examines the effects arising from outliers. Standard geostatistical texts suggest ways of dealing with underlying asymmetry; however, this is based on informed intuition rather than detailed investigation. To determine whether the methods generally used to deal with underlying asymmetry are appropriate, the effects of different coefficients of skewness on the shape of the experimental variogram and on the model parameters were investigated. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size from variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These data were then modified to give different degrees of asymmetry and the experimental variogram was computed in each case. The effects of standard data transformations on the form of the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess quantitatively the performance of the different variogram models for kriging. The results showed that the shape of the variogram was affected by the degree of asymmetry, and that the effect increased as the size of data set decreased. Transformations of the data were more effective in reducing the skewness coefficient in the larger sets of data. Cross-validation confirmed that variogram models from transformed data were more suitable for kriging than were those from the raw asymmetric data. The results of this study have implications for the 'standard best practice' in dealing with asymmetry in data for geostatistical analyses. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. II. Outliers

Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. The first paper of this series examined the effects of the former on the variogram and this paper examines the effects of asymmetry arising from outliers. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size that are realizations of known processes described by variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These primary data sets were then contaminated with randomly located and spatially aggregated outliers from a secondary process to produce different degrees of asymmetry. Experimental variograms were computed from these data by Matheron's estimator and by three robust estimators. The effects of standard data transformations on the coefficient of skewness and on the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess the performance of models fitted to experimental variograms computed from a range of data contaminated by outliers for kriging. The results showed that where skewness was caused by outliers the variograms retained their general shape, but showed an increase in the nugget and sill variances and nugget:sill ratios. This effect was only slightly more for the smallest data set than for the two larger data sets and there was little difference between the results for the latter. Overall, the effect of size of data set was small for all analyses. The nugget:sill ratio showed a consistent decrease after transformation to both square roots and logarithms; the decrease was generally larger for the latter, however. Aggregated outliers had different effects on the variogram shape from those that were randomly located, and this also depended on whether they were aggregated near to the edge or the centre of the field. The results of cross-validation showed that the robust estimators and the removal of outliers were the most effective ways of dealing with outliers for variogram estimation and kriging. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A genetic algorithm for the design of a fuzzy controller for active queue management

Active queue management (AQM) policies are those policies of router queue management that allow for the detection of network congestion, the notification of such occurrences to the hosts on the network borders, and the adoption of a suitable control policy. This paper proposes the adoption of a fuzzy proportional integral (FPI) controller as an active queue manager for Internet routers. The analytical design of the proposed FPI controller is carried out in analogy with a proportional integral (PI) controller, which recently has been proposed for AQM. A genetic algorithm is proposed for tuning of the FPI controller parameters with respect to optimal disturbance rejection. In the paper the FPI controller design metodology is described and the results of the comparison with random early detection (RED), tail drop, and PI controller are presented.

A new perspective on blocking

It is argued that the essential aspect of atmospheric blocking may be seen in the wave breaking of potential temperature (θ) on a potential vorticity (PV) surface, which may be identified with the tropopause, and the consequent reversal of the usual meridional temperature gradient of θ. A new dynamical blocking index is constructed using a meridional θ difference on a PV surface. Unlike in previous studies, the central blocking latitude about which this difference is constructed is allowed to vary with longitude. At each longitude it is determined by the latitude at which the climatological high-pass transient eddy kinetic energy is a maximum. Based on the blocking index, at each longitude local instantaneous blocking, large-scale blocking, and blocking episodes are defined. For longitudinal sectors, sector blocking and sector blocking episodes are also defined. The 5-yr annual climatologies of the three longitudinally defined blocking event frequencies and the seasonal climatologies of blocking episode frequency are shown. The climatologies all pick out the eastern North Atlantic–Europe and eastern North Pacific–western North America regions. There is evidence that Pacific blocking shifts into the western central Pacific in the summer. Sector blocking episodes of 4 days or more are shown to exhibit different persistence characteristics to shorter events, showing that blocking is not just the long timescale tail end of a distribution. The PV–θ index results for the annual average location of Pacific blocking agree with synoptic studies but disagree with modern quantitative height field–based studies. It is considered that the index used here is to be preferred anyway because of its dynamical basis. However, the longitudinal discrepancy is found to be associated with the use in the height field index studies of a central blocking latitude that is independent of longitude. In particular, the use in the North Pacific of a latitude that is suitable for the eastern North Atlantic leads to spurious categorization of blocking there. Furthermore, the PV–θ index is better able to detect Ω blocking than conventional height field indices.

Mechanisms of midlatitude cross-tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach

[ 1] A potential vorticity (PV) budget method has been used to attribute vertical transport across the near-tropopause ( 1 PVU surface) in extratropical weather systems to radiative, latent heating and cooling, and mixing processes. Sources and sinks of PV due to nonconservative processes are calculated online and advected as passive tracers. There is reasonable agreement between the spatial distribution of transport determined from the PV budget method and the transport across the 1 - 2 PVU zone from a passive tracer and trajectories, but different aspects of exchange can be diagnosed with each method. Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport occurred in the broad upper level PV anomalies and was attributed mainly to latent heating and cooling processes; troposphere-to-stratosphere transport occurred toward the tail of a PV filament and in a ridge region and was attributed mainly to radiative processes. The contribution of mixing processes to transport was comparatively small. Using the PV budget method, the domain integrated exchange across the 1 PVU surface was from stratosphere to troposphere, and the magnitude of 1 x 10(15) kg over a 2 day winter integration in a large North Atlantic domain is consistent with stratosphere-troposphere exchange calculations from other studies. This exchange arises from an approximate balance between the dominant stratosphere-to-troposphere transport due to latent heating and cooling processes and troposphere-to-stratosphere transport due to radiative processes. The direction of transport across the tropopause in a fold was found to be critically dependent on the PV surface considered to represent the tropopause.

The variation of solar wind correlation lengths over three solar cycles

We present the results of a study of solar wind velocity and magnetic field correlation lengths over the last 35 years. The correlation length of the magnetic field magnitude λ | B| increases on average by a factor of two at solar maxima compared to solar minima. The correlation lengths of the components of the magnetic field λ_{B_{XYZ}} and of the velocity λ_{V_{YZ}} do not show this change and have similar values, indicating a continual turbulent correlation length of around 1.4×106 km. We conclude that a linear relation between λ | B|, VB 2, and Kp suggests that the former is related to the total magnetic energy in the solar wind and an estimate of the average size of geoeffective structures, which is, in turn, proportional to VB 2. By looking at the distribution of daily correlation lengths we show that the solar minimum values of λ | B| correspond to the turbulent outer scale. A tail of larger λ | B| values is present at solar maximum causing the increase in mean value.

Transpolar voltage and polar cap flux during the substorm cycle and steady convection events

Transpolar voltages observed during traversals of the polar cap by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-13 spacecraft during 2001 are analyzed using the expanding-contracting polar cap model of ionospheric convection. Each of the 10,216 passes is classified by its substorm phase or as a steady convection event (SCE) by inspection of the AE indices. For all phases, we detect a contribution to the transpolar voltage by reconnection in both the dayside magnetopause and in the crosstail current sheet. Detection of the IMF influence is 97% certain during quiet intervals and >99% certain during substorm/SCE growth phases but falls to 75% in substorm expansion phases: It is only 27% during SCEs. Detection of the influence of the nightside voltage is only 19% certain during growth phases, rising during expansion phases to a peak of 96% in recovery phases: During SCEs, it is >99%. The voltage during SCEs is dominated by the nightside, not the dayside, reconnection. On average, substorm expansion phases halt the growth phase rise in polar cap flux rather than reversing it. The main destruction of the excess open flux takes place during the 6- to 10-hour interval after the recovery phase (as seen in AE) and at a rate which is relatively independent of polar cap flux because the NENL has by then retreated to the far tail. The best estimate of the voltage associated with viscous-like transfer of closed field lines into the tail is around 10 kV.

Determinants of fruit and vegetable intake in England: a re-examination based on quantile regression

Objective To examine die sociodemographic determinants of fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption in England and determine the differential effects of socioeconomic variables at various parts of the intake distribution, with a special focus on severely inadequate intakes Design Quantile regression, expressing F&V intake as a function of sociodemographic variables, is employed. Here, quantile regression flexibly allows variables such as ethnicity to exert effects on F&V intake that. vary depending oil existing levels of intake. Setting The 2003 Health survey of England. Subjects Data were from 11044 adult individuals. Results The influence of particular sociodemographic variables is found to vary significantly across the intake distribution We conclude that women consume more F&V than men, Asians and Hacks mole dian Whites, co-habiting individuals more than single-living ones Increased incomes and education also boost intake However, the key general finding of the present study is that the influence of most variables is relatively weak in the area of greatest concern, i e among those with the most inadequate intakes in any reference group. Conclusions. Our findings emphasise the importance of allowing the effects of socio-economic drivers to vary across the intake distribution The main finding, that variables which exert significant influence on F&V Intake at other parts Of the conditional distribution have a relatively weak influence at the lower tail, is cause for concern. It implies that in any defined group, those consuming the lease F&V are hard to influence using compaigns or policy levers.

Investigating the practicality of using radio tracking to determine home range and movements of Picathartidae

Radiotelemetry is an important tool used to aid the understanding and conservation of cryptic and rare birds. The two bird species of the family Picathartidae are little-known, secretive, forest-dwelling birds endemic to western and central Africa. In 2005, we conducted a radio-tracking trial of Grey-necked Picathartes Picathartes oreas in the Mbam Minkom Mountain Forest, southern Cameroon, using neck collar (two birds) and tail-mounted (four birds) transmitters to investigate the practicality of radio-tracking Picathartidae. Three birds with tail-mounted transmitters were successfully tracked with the fourth, though not relocated for radio tracking, resighted the following breeding season. Two of these were breeding birds that continued to provision young during radio tracking. One neck-collared bird was found dead three days after transmitter attachment and the other neither relocated nor resighted. As mortality in one bird was potentially caused by the neck collar transmitter we recommend tail-mounted transmitters in future radio-tracking studies of Picathartidae. Home ranges, shown using minimum convex polygon and kernel estimation methods, were generally small (<0.5 km(2)) and centred around breeding sites. A minimum of 60 fixes were found to be sufficient for home range estimation.

Asymptotic normality in mixtures of power series distributions

The problem of estimating the individual probabilities of a discrete distribution is considered. The true distribution of the independent observations is a mixture of a family of power series distributions. First, we ensure identifiability of the mixing distribution assuming mild conditions. Next, the mixing distribution is estimated by non-parametric maximum likelihood and an estimator for individual probabilities is obtained from the corresponding marginal mixture density. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimator of individual probabilities by showing that, under certain conditions, the difference between this estimator and the empirical proportions is asymptotically negligible. Our framework includes Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic series as well as binomial mixture models. Simulations highlight the benefit in achieving normality when using the proposed marginal mixture density approach instead of the empirical one, especially for small sample sizes and/or when interest is in the tail areas. A real data example is given to illustrate the use of the methodology.

Nuclear magnetic resonance structure shows that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-unique domain contains a macrodomain fold

The nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) structure of a central segment of the previously annotated severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-unique domain (SUD-M, for "middle of the SARS-unique domain") in SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) nonstructural protein 3 (nsp3) has been determined. SUD-M(513-651) exhibits a macrodomain fold containing the nsp3 residues 528 to 648, and there is a flexibly extended N-terminal tail with the residues 513 to 527 and a C-terminal flexible tail of residues 649 to 651. As a follow-up to this initial result, we also solved the structure of a construct representing only the globular domain of residues 527 to 651 [SUD-M(527-651)]. NMR chemical shift perturbation experiments showed that SUD-M(527-651) binds single-stranded poly(A) and identified the contact area with this RNA on the protein surface, and electrophoretic mobility shift assays then confirmed that SUD-M has higher affinity for purine bases than for pyrimidine bases. In a further search for clues to the function, we found that SUD-M(527-651) has the closest three-dimensional structure homology with another domain of nsp3, the ADP-ribose-1 ''-phosphatase nsp3b, although the two proteins share only 5% sequence identity in the homologous sequence regions. SUD-M(527-651) also shows three-dimensional structure homology with several helicases and nucleoside triphosphate-binding proteins, but it does not contain the motifs of catalytic residues found in these structural homologues. The combined results from NMR screening of potential substrates and the structure-based homology studies now form a basis for more focused investigations on the role of the SARS-unique domain in viral infection.

NMR structure shows that the SARS-unique domain contains a macrodomain fold

The NMR structure of a central segment of the previously annotated "SARS-unique domain" (SUD-M; "middle of the SARS-unique domain") in the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) non-structural protein 3 (nsp3) has been determined. SUD-M(513-651) exhibits a macrodomain fold containing the nsp3-residues 528-648, and there is a flexibly extended N-terminal tail with the residues 513-527 and a C-terminal flexible tail of residues 649-651. As a follow-up to this initial result, we also solved the structure of a construct representing only the globular domain of residues 527-651 [SUD-M(527-651)]. NMR chemical shift perturbation experiments showed that SUD-M(527-651) binds single-stranded poly-A and identified the contact area with this RNA on the protein surface, and electrophoretic mobility shift assays then confirmed that SUD-M has higher affinity for purine bases than for pyrimidine bases. In further search for clues to the function, we found that SUD-M(527-651) has the closest three-dimensional structure homology with another domain of nsp3, the ADP-ribose-1''-phosphatase nsp3b, although the two proteins share only 5% sequence identity in the homologous sequence regions. SUD-M(527-651) also shows 3D structure homology with several helicases and NTP-binding proteins, but it does not contain the motifs of catalytic residues found in these structural homologues. The combined results from NMR screening of potential substrates and the structure-based homology studies now form a basis for more focused investigations on the role of the SARS-unique domain in viral infection.

Owls and rabbits: predation against substandard individuals of an easy prey

The interactions among the multiple factors regulating predator-prey relationships make predation a more complex process than previously thought. The degree to which substandard individuals are captured disproportionately seems to be better a function of the difficulty of prey capture than of the hunting techniques (coursing vs. ambushing predators). That is, when the capture and killing of a prey species is easy, substandard individuals will be predated in proportion to their occurrence in the prey population. In the present study, we made use of eagle owls Bubo bubo and their main prey, the rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus: (a) the brightness of the white tails of rabbits seems to be correlated with the physical condition of individuals, (b) by using the tails of predated rabbits as an index of individual condition, we found that eagle owls seem to prefer substandard individuals (characterized by duller tails), and (c) by using information from continuous radiotracking of 14 individuals, we suggest that the difficulty of rabbit capture could be low. Although the relative benefits of preying on substandard individuals should considerably decrease when a predator is attacking an easy prey, we hypothesise that the eagle owl preference for substandard individuals could be due to the easy detection of poor individuals by a visual cue, the brightness of the rabbit tail. Several elements allow us to believe that this form of visual communication between a prey and one of its main predators could be more widespread than previously thought. In fact: (a) visual signalling plays a relevant role in intraspecific communication in eagle owls and, consequently, visual signals could also play a role in interspecific interactions, and (b) empirical studies showed that signals may inform the predator that it has been perceived, or that the prey is in a sufficiently healthy state to elude the predator.

Frequency of word-use predicts rates of lexical evolution throughout Indo-European history

Greek speakers say "ovpa", Germans "schwanz'' and the French "queue'' to describe what English speakers call a 'tail', but all of these languages use a related form of 'two' to describe the number after one. Among more than 100 Indo-European languages and dialects, the words for some meanings (such as 'tail') evolve rapidly, being expressed across languages by dozens of unrelated words, while others evolve much more slowly-such as the number 'two', for which all Indo-European language speakers use the same related word-form(1). No general linguistic mechanism has been advanced to explain this striking variation in rates of lexical replacement among meanings. Here we use four large and divergent language corpora (English(2), Spanish(3), Russian(4) and Greek(5)) and a comparative database of 200 fundamental vocabulary meanings in 87 Indo-European languages(6) to show that the frequency with which these words are used in modern language predicts their rate of replacement over thousands of years of Indo-European language evolution. Across all 200 meanings, frequently used words evolve at slower rates and infrequently used words evolve more rapidly. This relationship holds separately and identically across parts of speech for each of the four language corpora, and accounts for approximately 50% of the variation in historical rates of lexical replacement. We propose that the frequency with which specific words are used in everyday language exerts a general and law-like influence on their rates of evolution. Our findings are consistent with social models of word change that emphasize the role of selection, and suggest that owing to the ways that humans use language, some words will evolve slowly and others rapidly across all languages.

Lymph heart in chick - somitic origin, development and embryonic oedema

The lymph heart is a sac-like structure on either side of avian tail. In some adult birds, it empties the lymph from the copulatory organ; however, during embryonic development, it is thought to circulate extra-embryonic lymph. Very little is known about the origin, innervation and the cellular changes it undergoes during development. Using immunohistochemistry and gene expression profiling we show that the musculature of the lymph heart is initially composed solely of striated skeletal muscle but later develops an additional layer composed of smooth myofibroblasts. Chick-quail fate-mapping demonstrates that the lymph heart originates from the hypaxial compartments of somites 34-41. The embryonic lymph heart is transiently innervated by somatic motoneurons with no autonomic input. In comparison to body muscles, the lymph heart has different sensitivity to neuromuscular junction blockers (sensitive only to decamethonium). Furthermore, its abundant bungarotoxin-positive acetylcholinesterase receptors are unique as they completely lack specific acetylcholinesterase activity. Several lines of evidence suggest that the lymph heart may possess an intrinsic pacing mechanism. Finally, we assessed the function of the lymph heart during embryogenesis and demonstrate that it is responsible for preventing embryonic oedema in birds, a role previously thought to be played by body skeletal muscle contractions.