TIGGE: comparison of the prediction of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems.

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical cyclones by nine different ensemble prediction systems(EPSs), archived as part of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), has recently been explored using a cyclone tracking approach. This paper provides a continuation of this work, extending the analysis to the Southern Hemisphere (SH). While the EPSs have larger error in all cyclone properties in the SH, the relative performance of the different EPSs remains broadly consistent between the two hemispheres. Some interesting differences are also shown. The Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) EPS has a significantly lower level of performance in the SH compared to the NH. Previous NH results showed that the Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (CPTEC) EPS underpredicts cyclone intensity. The results of this current study show that this bias is significantly larger in the SH. The CPTEC EPS also has very little spread in both hemispheres. As with the NH results, cyclone propagation speed is underpredicted by all the EPSs in the SH. To investigate this further, the bias was also computed for theECMWFhigh-resolution deterministic forecast. The bias was significantly smaller than the lower resolution ECMWF EPS.

On the edge: Southern Levantine Epipalaeolithic–Neolithic chronological succession

The broad picture of the cultural and chronological succession from the Epipalaeolithic to the Neolithic in the southern Levant is generally well understood. However, at a more detailed, local level, many questions remain unanswered. In this paper we examine the archaeological record of cultural developments in southern Jordan and the Negev. Focusing on a series of 14C dates from the early occupation of the PPNA site of WF16, we provide a critical review of dating evidence for the region. This review suggests that while the 14C chronology is ambiguous and problematic there is good evidence for a local historical development from the Harifian variant of the Natufian to the early PPNA, well to the south of any core Mediterranean woodland zone. This stresses the importance of considering developments at local scales of analysis, and that the Neolithic transition occurred within a framework of many interacting sub-regional provinces.

Dilution of the Antarctic ozone hole into southern midlatitudes, 1998-2000

The reduction in southern midlatitude ozone is quantified by evaluating the trajectories of ozone-depleted air masses, assuming that photochemical recovery of ozone in advected air parcels can be ignored. This procedure is carried out for the 3 months from 15 October to 15 January for each of the years 1998, 1999, and 2000. Two distinct source regions, the vortex core and the vortex edge, are considered, and for each day, diabatic reverse domain filling calculations are performed for an ensemble of parcels between 30°S and 60°S and 400–700 K in altitude. In 1998, 1999, and 2000 the mean calculated ozone reduction is 16, 18, and 19 DU, respectively. Air parcels from the vortex edge region are significant contributors to the reduction, especially during spring. Results for four longitudinal and three latitudinal midlatitude subregions are also presented. A comparison with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer measurements of total column ozone shows that without the dilution, ozone over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes would be 5–6% higher during spring and summer. This result is probably an overestimate due to the neglect of photochemical recovery.

New evidence from Southern Jordan: rethinking the role of architecture in changing societies at the beginning of the Neolithic process

The development of architecture and the settlement is central to discussions concerning the Neolithic transformation asthe very visible evidence for the changes in society that run parallel to the domestication of plants and animals. Architecture hasbeen used as an important aspect of models of how the transformation occurred, and as evidence for the sharp difference betweenhunter-gatherer and farming societies. We suggest that the emerging evidence for considerable architectural complexity from theearly Neolithic indicates that some of our interpretations depend too much on a very basic understanding of structures which arenormally seen as being primarily for residential purposes and containing households, which become the organising principle for thenew communities which are often seen as fully sedentary and described as villages. Recent work in southern Jordan suggests that inthis region at least there is little evidence for a standard house, and that structures are constructed for a range of diverse primary purposes other than simple domestic shelters.

An 11,600 year old communal structure from the Neolithic of southern Jordan

The authors present a new type of communal and monumental structure from the earliest Neolithic in western Asia. A complement to the decorated stone pillars erected at Göbekli Tepe in the north, ‘Wadi Faynan 16 Structure O75’ in the southern Levant is a ritualised gathering place of a different kind. It serves to define wider western Asia as an arena of social experiment in the tenth millennium BC, one in which community seems to take precedence over economy.

Architecture, sedentism, and social complexity at Pre-Pottery Neolithic A WF16, Southern Jordan

Recent excavations at Pre-Pottery Neolithic A (PPNA) WF16 in southern Jordan have revealed remarkable evidence of architectural developments in the early Neolithic. This sheds light on both special purpose structures and “domestic” settlement, allowing fresh insights into the development of increasingly sedentary communities and the social systems they supported. The development of sedentary communities is a central part of the Neolithic process in Southwest Asia. Architecture and ideas of homes and households have been important to the debate, although there has also been considerable discussion on the role of communal buildings and the organization of early sedentarizing communities since the discovery of the tower at Jericho. Recently, the focus has been on either northern Levantine PPNA sites, such as Jerf el Ahmar, or the emergence of ritual buildings in the Pre-Pottery Neolithic B of the southern Levant. Much of the debate revolves around a division between what is interpreted as domestic space, contrasted with “special purpose” buildings. Our recent evidence allows a fresh examination of the nature of early Neolithic communities.

Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere troposphere

The separate effects of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on forcing circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere are investigated using a version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is coupled to an ocean. Circulation-related diagnostics include zonal wind, tropopause pressure, Hadley cell width, jet location, annular mode index, precipitation, wave drag, and eddy fluxes of momentum and heat. As expected, the tropospheric response to the ODS forcing occurs primarily in austral summer, with past (1960-99) and future (2000-99) trends of opposite sign, while the GHG forcing produces more seasonally uniform trends with the same sign in the past and future. In summer the ODS forcing dominates past trends in all diagnostics, while the two forcings contribute nearly equally but oppositely to future trends. The ODS forcing produces a past surface temperature response consisting of cooling over eastern Antarctica, and is the dominant driver of past summertime surface temperature changes when the model is constrained by observed sea surface temperatures. For all diagnostics, the response to the ODS and GHG forcings is additive: that is, the linear trend computed from the simulations using the combined forcings equals (within statistical uncertainty) the sum of the linear trends from the simulations using the two separate forcings. Space time spectra of eddy fluxes and the spatial distribution of transient wave drag are examined to assess the viability of several recently proposed mechanisms for the observed poleward shift in the tropospheric jet.

The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet

In the past several decades, the tropospheric westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere have been observed to accelerate on the poleward side of the surface wind maximum. This has been attributed to the combined anthropogenic effects of increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone and is predicted to continue by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) models. In this paper, the predictions of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) models are examined: Unlike the AR4 models, the CCMVal models have a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry. Owing to the expected disappearance of the ozone hole in the first half of the 21st century, the CCMVal models predict that the tropospheric westerlies in Southern Hemisphere summer will be decelerated, on the poleward side, in contrast with the prediction of most IPCC/AR4 models.

The effects of a changing pollution climate on throughfall deposition and cycling in a forested area in southern England

This study compares two sets of measurements of the composition of bulk precipitation and throughfall at a site in southern England with a 20-year gap between them. During this time, SO2 emissions from the UK fell by 82%, NOx emissions by 35% and NH3 emissions by 7%. These reductions were partly reflected in bulk precipitation, with deposition reductions of 56% in SO4,38% in NO3, 32% in NH4, and 73% in H+. In throughfall under Scots pine, the effects were more dramatic, with an 89% reduction in SO4 deposition and a 98% reduction in H+ deposition. The mean pH under these trees increased from 2.85 to 4.30. Nitrate and ammonium deposition in throughfall increased slightly, however. In the earlier period, the Scots pines were unable to neutralise the high flux of acidity associated with sulphur deposition, even though this was not a highly polluted part of the UK, and deciduous trees (oak and birch) were only able to neutralise it in summer when the leaves were present. In the later period, the sulphur flux had reduced to the point where the acidity could be neutralised by all species — the neutralisation mechanism is thus likely to be largely leaching of base cations and buffering substances from the foliage. The high fluxes are partly due to the fact that these are 60–80 year old trees growing in an open forest structure. The increase in NO3 and NH4 in throughfall in spite of decreased deposition seems likely due to a decrease in foliar uptake, perhaps due to the increasing nitrogen saturation of the catchment soils. These changes may increase the rate of soil microbial activity as nitrogen increases and acidity declines, with consequent effects on water quality of the catchment drainage stream.

Pedosedimentary, cultural and environmental significance of palaeosols within Pre-Hispanic agricultural terraces in the southern Peruvian Andes

Paleosols were exposed in sections through four abandoned pre-Hispanic agricultural terraces surrounding an infilled mire basin in the southern Peruvian Andes. The two paleosols beneath the Tocotoccasa terrace represent the original ‘natural’ solum and a later soil formed after construction of the agricultural terrace, probably during the early Middle Horizon cultural period (615–695 AD). The soil at the current surface developed subsequent to the building up and reconstruction of the terrace, possibly during the late Late Intermediate period (1200–1400 AD). Micromorphology revealed an unexpected abundance of clay coatings within the upper terrace paleosol and surface terrace soil, a phenonemon attributed to the migration and/or accumulation of neoformed clay produced from the weathering of very unstable volcanic clasts, perhaps fuelled by arid/humid climatic oscillations and/or seasonal input of irrigation waters. The paleosols at Tocotoccasa could not be correlated with any degree of confidence with those beneath the other three terraces due to differences in pedosedimentary properties and uncertainties over chronological controls. Thus, it seems likely that either the terraces were (re)constructed and utilised over different cultural periods or that there is significant variation in the extent of weathering of material used for reconstruction of the terraces. Unfortunately, it cannot be ascertained from the data available whether the terraces were abandoned for any significant period of time prior to reconstruction and, if so, whether this was a regional phenomenon related to climate, social, or economic changes.

A framework for agricultural adaptation to climate change in Southern Nigeria

The agricultural sector which contributes between 20-50% of gross domestic product in Africa and employs about 60% of the population is greatly affected by climate change impacts. Agricultural productivity and food prices are expected to rise due to this impact thereby worsening the food insecurity and poor nutritional health conditions in the continent. Incidentally, the capacity in the continent to adapt is very low. Addressing these challenges will therefore require a holistic and integrated adaptation framework hence this study. A total of 360 respondents selected through a multi-stage random sampling technique participated in the study that took place in Southern Nigeria from 2008-2011. Results showed that majority of respondents (84%) were aware that some climate change characteristics such as uncertainties at the onset of farming season, extreme weather events including flooding and droughts, pests, diseases, weed infestation, and land degradation have all been on the increase. The most significant effects of climate change that manifested in the area were declining soil fertility and weed infestation. Some of the adaptation strategies adopted by farmers include increased weeding, changing the timing of farm operations, and processing of crops to reduce post-harvest losses. Although majority of respondents were aware of government policies aimed at protecting the environment, most of them agreed that these policies were not being effectively implemented. A mutually inclusive framework comprising of both indigenous and modern techniques, processes, practices and technologies was then developed from the study in order to guide farmers in adapting to climate change effects/impacts.