The Electoral Geography of the Slovak Republic: A Comparison of the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Parliamentary Elections

In what can rightly be said to be one of the most dramatic geopolitical shifts in modern times, the collapse of communist regimes in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union brought about dramatic changes in the entire region. As a consequence, wide ranging political, economic, and social transformations have occurred in almost all of these countries since 1989. The Slovak Republic, as a newly democratic country, went through the establishment of the electoral and party systems that are the central mechanisms to the formation of almost all modern democratic governments. The primary research purpose of this dissertation was to describe and explain regional variations in party support during Slovakia’s ten years of democratic transformation. A secondary purpose was to relate these spatial variations to the evolution of political parties in the post-independence period in light of the literature on transitional electoral systems. Research questions were analyzed using both aggregate and survey data. Specifically, the study utilized electoral data from 1994, 1998, and 2002 Slovak parliamentary elections and socio-economic data of the population within Slovak regions which were eventually correlated with the voting results by party in the 79 Slovak districts. The results of this study demonstrate that there is a tendency among voters in certain regions to provide continuous support to the same political parties/movements over time. In addition, the socio-economic characteristics of the Slovak population (gender, age, education, religion, nationality, unemployment, work force distribution, wages, urban-rural variable, and population density) in different regions tend to influence voting preferences in the parliamentary elections. Finally, there is an evident correlation between party preference and the party’s position on integration into European Union, as measured by perceived attitudes regarding the benefits of EU membership.

An examination of the possible consolidation of African American political power through selective migration

This study examined whether African Americans could consolidate political power through a migration into a specific state or set of states in sufficient numbers to establish a voting majority within that state. In order to examine the feasibility and efficacy of this strategy, a variety of factors were reviewed, including the historical context leading to the current situation; the political benefits to be derived from the control of a state; and the population and migration patterns of African Americans. The results indicated that this strategy could succeed in providing significant substantive and symbolic political benefits to the African American community, but could also have some negative repercussions.

Revisiting the Cuban-American Vote: A Symposium

Symposium of scholars, pollsters and elected officials to discuss the changes and continuities in Cuban-American voting patterns. Participants include: Dr. Astrid Arraras, Department of Politics & International Relations, FlU Dr. Danielle Pilar Clealand, Department of Politics & International Relations, FlU Dr. Rodolfo de Ia Garza, Department of Political Science, Columbia University Dr. Susan Eckstein, Department of Sociology, Boston University Dr. Eduardo Gamarra, Department of Politics & International Relations, FlU Dr. Lisa Garcia Bedolla, Graduate School of Education, University of California, Berkeley Dr. Guillermo J. Grenier, Department of Global & Sociocultural Studies, FlU Dr. Mark Hugo Lopez, Pew Hispanic Center Dr. Daria Moreno, Department of Politics & International Relations, FlU

Classes sociais e eleições presidenciais no Brasil contemporâneo (2002-2010)

This work aims to analyze, in terms of class, the social composition of the constituency of the presidential candidates of the Workers Party in 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections. Such research object is constructed from a preliminary critical debate with recent Brazilian electoral studies, especially the literature on the infl uence of social programs on voting and Singer’s formulations about the lulismo phenomenon. Incorporating advances and pointing out gaps in such research efforts, is formulated a roadmap for empirical research constituted of three key elements - the measure ment of the dimensions of class structure in Brazilian capitalism; the observation of material interests related to the constituents locations of such structure; the development of measures of association between the insertion in class groupings and indivi dual voting behavior. Based on the neo - Marxist approach of class analysis, especially as formulated by Wright, it is made an adaptation of the typology formulated by such approach (mainly developed by Santos to the Brazilian case) to the data available fro m databases of censuses of 2000 and 2010. This theoretical construct reveals that during the period considered for the analysis, the structure of class - relations in Brazil became more proletarized and consequently had a decrease of the dimensions of the de stitute class locations. In addition, it was found, in relation to the objective class interests, widespread increments of economic welfare that allowed advances in relation to the material conditions of the proletariat, without, however, incurring losses to the privileged class positions. Such changes in the structural sphere focused in various ways on the political arena. Based on an adaptation to electoral analysis of the concept of "class formation", also formulated by Wright, associated with the use of techniques of ecological inference (especially those proposed by King and associates), it was possible to draw up an overview of class voting in period studied. As main results, three general patterns of individual voting behavior, related to each of the three analyzed class groupings were identified - a contraposition against PT candidates, by voters in privileged class locations; the adhesion, recurring throughout the study period, of workers to Lula and Dilma Rousseff; a favorable electoral shift unde rtaken by economically deprived voters in favor of those candidatures in the 2006 election.

O comportamento eleitoral da nova classe trabalhadora no Rio Grande do Norte 2014: ideologia, avaliação de governo e voto

This thesis investigates the voting behavior of the fractions of the new working class in Rio Grande do Norte, more specifically in the cities of Natal, Mossoró and Caicó, from the presidential election of 2014. This research examined the ideology, the evaluation of government and guidance the vote of a portion of the working classes of RN voters. In Brazil, from 2003, socio-economic change has occurred perceptibly, especially in a part of the working classes who ascended socially and switched to the "C economic class." Thus, there was this period, a significant expansion of this social stratum. The expansion of the "class C" in the past decade in Brazil raised the academic debate and in the media about the emergence of a "new middle class". Neri (2008) termed the "class C" of the "new middle class" and that will be the central part of their studies. But the debate on the "new middle class" can not be simplistic to the point of considering that social mobility, the main variable income, entered this segment of the population in the middle class, because it has different specificities of the popular classes. To understand this phenomenon, the income variable was outdated, adding the importance of ownership of the means of production, control of labor power and the symbolic values in the division of social classes resulting in three fractions of the new working class: the management positions, non-heads and small fighters. In this study, using as a complement to the sociological approach (ideologies and social classes) and the performance evaluation was identified that the new working class (heads) mainly reproduced the ideological and political positioning of the middle class, resulting in the rejection of PT governments (2003-2014) and it’s social, compensatory and redistributive policies. From what has been seen, the new working class (chiefs) approaches the ideological and political behavior of the middle class that will reflect in their electoral choices and class interests. The new working class (not heads and small fighters who voted in the situation) because of its classist and ideological interests approached the Workers' Party positively evaluating the Lula-Dilma governments (2003-2014) due to the implementation of compensatory policies, and redistributive programs government turned to the popular classes. In a counterpoint, the voters of the new working class (not heads and small fighters) who voted null, reproduced the discourse of mainstream media and the middle class about the rejection of compensatory policies, redistribution and government programs of Lula-Dilma governments, and consequently they disapproved of the government Dilma and her candidacy.

Deterministic and probabilistic verification of multi-model meteorological forecasts on the subseasonal timescale

In questo studio, un multi-model ensemble è stato implementato e verificato, seguendo una delle priorità di ricerca del Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S). Una regressione lineare è stata applicata ad un insieme di previsioni di ensemble su date passate, prodotte dai centri di previsione mensile del CNR-ISAC e ECMWF-IFS. Ognuna di queste contiene un membro di controllo e quattro elementi perturbati. Le variabili scelte per l'analisi sono l'altezza geopotenziale a 500 hPa, la temperatura a 850 hPa e la temperatura a 2 metri, la griglia spaziale ha risoluzione 1 ◦ × 1 ◦ lat-lon e sono stati utilizzati gli inverni dal 1990 al 2010. Le rianalisi di ERA-Interim sono utilizzate sia per realizzare la regressione, sia nella validazione dei risultati, mediante stimatori nonprobabilistici come lo scarto quadratico medio (RMSE) e la correlazione delle anomalie. Successivamente, tecniche di Model Output Statistics (MOS) e Direct Model Output (DMO) sono applicate al multi-model ensemble per ottenere previsioni probabilistiche per la media settimanale delle anomalie di temperatura a 2 metri. I metodi MOS utilizzati sono la regressione logistica e la regressione Gaussiana non-omogenea, mentre quelli DMO sono il democratic voting e il Tukey plotting position. Queste tecniche sono applicate anche ai singoli modelli in modo da effettuare confronti basati su stimatori probabilistici, come il ranked probability skill score, il discrete ranked probability skill score e il reliability diagram. Entrambe le tipologie di stimatori mostrano come il multi-model abbia migliori performance rispetto ai singoli modelli. Inoltre, i valori più alti di stimatori probabilistici sono ottenuti usando una regressione logistica sulla sola media di ensemble. Applicando la regressione a dataset di dimensione ridotta, abbiamo realizzato una curva di apprendimento che mostra come un aumento del numero di date nella fase di addestramento non produrrebbe ulteriori miglioramenti.

Taking a vote at NOW conference in Washington, D.C.

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

ERA Defeat

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Gloria Steinem with bullhorn telling voters to be patient and everone will vote [at International Women's Year]

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

ERA Defeat

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Bella Abzug speaks at Women's Equality Day Rally

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Bella Abzug votes for passage of ERA in NY with husband Martin Abzug to her right

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.