The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m 3 s-1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m 3 s -1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Integrating sequence information in microarray data analysis by free energy modeling

Microarray technology is a high-throughput method for genotyping and gene expression profiling. Limited sensitivity and specificity are one of the essential problems for this technology. Most of existing methods of microarray data analysis have an apparent limitation for they merely deal with the numerical part of microarray data and have made little use of gene sequence information. Because it's the gene sequences that precisely define the physical objects being measured by a microarray, it is natural to make the gene sequences an essential part of the data analysis. This dissertation focused on the development of free energy models to integrate sequence information in microarray data analysis. The models were used to characterize the mechanism of hybridization on microarrays and enhance sensitivity and specificity of microarray measurements. ^ Cross-hybridization is a major obstacle factor for the sensitivity and specificity of microarray measurements. In this dissertation, we evaluated the scope of cross-hybridization problem on short-oligo microarrays. The results showed that cross hybridization on arrays is mostly caused by oligo fragments with a run of 10 to 16 nucleotides complementary to the probes. Furthermore, a free-energy based model was proposed to quantify the amount of cross-hybridization signal on each probe. This model treats cross-hybridization as an integral effect of the interactions between a probe and various off-target oligo fragments. Using public spike-in datasets, the model showed high accuracy in predicting the cross-hybridization signals on those probes whose intended targets are absent in the sample. ^ Several prospective models were proposed to improve Positional Dependent Nearest-Neighbor (PDNN) model for better quantification of gene expression and cross-hybridization. ^ The problem addressed in this dissertation is fundamental to the microarray technology. We expect that this study will help us to understand the detailed mechanism that determines sensitivity and specificity on the microarrays. Consequently, this research will have a wide impact on how microarrays are designed and how the data are interpreted. ^

Para que no pase con Potrerillos lo que pasó con El Carrizal

El embalse Carrizal es una obra realizada sobre el río Tunuyán, que nace a la vida del oasis en el año 1971, acompañada de importantes proyectos de desarrollo económico e integración territorial. La inexistencia de una legislación adecuada a las necesidades generadas por esta infraestructura, la ineficiencia en su administración y la desconexión puesta de manifiesto entre el embalse y su zona de influencia, son las causas que provocan la falta de equipamiento turístico-recreativo adecuado y el aprovechamiento óptimo del recurso agua. En el caso de Potrerillos , se diferencian 3 zonas en donde el impacto de la presa puede producir cambios importantes, potenciando su desarrollo o provocando la aparición de externalidades negativas y mayores gastos de los previstos. Estas son : la márgenes del embalse, en donde se espera, al igual que en El Carrizal, el desarrollo de una serie de proyectos turísticos y recreativos; la zona de influencia de la Villa Potrerillos y la del Alto Potrerillos y la zona de riego del río Mendoza. La inserción de este tipo de obra debe ser planificada, y las políticas y acciones a implementar deben surgir de un análisis profundo de su realidad, de las limitaciones y potencialidades naturales como también de las necesidades y requerimientos de todos los agentes que participan en la construcción del nuevo ecosistema.

Caracterización preliminar de la calidad del agua en la cuenca superior del río Del Valle (Catamarca)

En la provincia de Catamarca, una de las principales cuencas es la del río Del Valle, que concentra poblaciones y actividad agrícola e industrial a lo largo de su recorrido. El objetivo de este trabajo fue realizar una caracterización preliminar de la calidad del agua de la cuenca superior del río Del Valle, es decir, en los formadores iniciales de este río. Los resultados obtenidos en los distintos puntos del muestreo de agua permitieron determinar que la calidad del agua de este río en general es buena, tanto para riego como para consumo animal y humano. El río Los Puestos, afluente de esta cuenca, es el que posee mayores contenidos de arsénico que el resto de la cuenca que, si bien no afecta la calidad del río Del Valle, hace necesario considerar su presencia por el uso de esta agua para riego y consumo de los pobladores de esa zona.

La influencia de la deforestación del cerrado brasileño en el cultivo de granos y las consecuencias de la pérdida del suelo en la región de la reserva cachoeira dourada : Brasil central-occidental

El índice de erosividad (EI30) y su espacialización fueron determinados para las cuencas de contribución del sistema hidroeléctrico de la reserva Cachoeira Dourada, localizada entre los Estados de Goias y Minas Gerais, limitada por las coordenadas 640000-760000 m W. y 7910000-7975000 m S. UTM zona 22, Datum Córrego Alegre. Se trataron los datos del promedio mensual y anual de las precipitaciones correspondientes a ocho localidades para un periodo de treinta años. Existe una distribución irregular de precipitación en la región y en consecuencia una espacialización no uniforme de los índices de erosión en el área de influencia de la reserva. Los valores más altos de precipitación coinciden con el periodo de preparación de la tierra para el cultivo y el desarrollo de las plantas de ciclo anual, principalmente soja y maíz.

Nd-Sr isotopes in fossil fish debris from IODP Exp302

Strontium and neodymium radiogenic isotope ratios in early to middle Eocene fossil fish debris (ichthyoliths) from Lomonosov Ridge (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 302) help constrain water mass compositions in the Eocene Arctic Ocean between 55 and 45 Ma. The inferred paleodepositional setting was a shallow, offshore marine to marginal marine environment with limited connections to surrounding ocean basins. The new data demonstrate that sources of Nd and Sr in fish debris were distinct from each other, consistent with a salinity-stratified water column above Lomonosov Ridge in the Eocene. The 87Sr/86Sr values of ichthyoliths (0.7079 - 0.7087) are more radiogenic than Eocene seawater, requiring brackish to fresh water conditions in the environment where fish metabolized Sr. The 87Sr/86Sr variations probably record changes in the overall balance of river Sr flux to the Eocene Arctic Ocean between 55 and 45 Ma and are used here to reconstruct surface water salinity values. The eNd values of ichthyoliths vary between -5.7 and -7.8, compatible with periodic (or intermittent) supply of Nd to Eocene Arctic intermediate water (AIW) from adjacent seas. Although the Norwegian-Greenland Sea and North Atlantic Ocean were the most likely sources of Eocene AIW Nd, input from the Tethys Sea (via the Turgay Strait in early Eocene time) and the North Pacific Ocean (via a proto-Bering Strait) also contributed.

INTCAL98

The focus of this paper is the conversion of radiocarbon ages to calibrated (cal) ages for the interval 24,00-0 cal BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950), based upon a sample set of dendrochronologically dated tree rings, uranium-thorium dated corals, and varve-counted marine sediment. The 14C age-cal age information, produced by many laboratories, is converted to 14C profiles and calibration curves, for the atmosphere as well as the oceans. We discuss offsets in measured 14C ages and the errors therein, regional 14C age diferences, tree-coral 14C age comparisons and the time dependence of marine reservoir ages, and evaluate decadal vs. single-year 14C results. Changes in oceanic deepwater circulation, especialy for the 16,00-1,00 cal BP interval, are reflected in the Delta14C values of INTCAL98.

Lipids in ocean particulate matter and bottom sediments

Lipid contents both in particulate matter and bottom sediments decreases with passage from the shelf toward the open ocean. Lipid concentration in particulate matter collected by a separator (Ls) decreases by a factor of 7 (from 7.05 to 0.95 % of dry matter), while in particulate matter collected on filters (Lf) it decreases by a factor of 13 (from 78 to 6 µg/l) in the vicinity of the Limpopo River and by a factor of 6 (from 74 to 13 µg/l) in the vicinity of the Zambezi River. Concentration of Lf also decreased with depth. In the upper sediment layers lipid concentration was 0.0028-0.039% of dry matter; all mud samples were richer in lipids, than sand samples. During sedimentogenesis there is an increase in proportion of lipids relative to other classes of organic matter, proportion of low-polarity compounds increases among the lipids, and proportion of hydrocarbons rises among these compounds. Sediments inherit composition of particulate matter to the greatest degree in the vicinity of river mouths.

234Th and particulate fluxes in the Kara Sea in October 1993

The mean residence time of 234Th associated with suspended matter in the Kara Sea was calculated from distributions of dissolved and suspended 234Th. Integral particulate fluxes at different levels were estimated for two stations. The flux increases only in the pycnocline; below it changes insignificantly. Two maxima of differential fluxes are noted in vertical profiles: in the surface layer where primary production is maximal, and in the interface layer where zooplankton realizing active transport of suspended matter is usually concentrated. Differential fluxes were determined at 10 stations; their space distribution is controlled by primary production, which depends usually on turbidity of river water in estuaries.

Aproximación metodológica a una articulación entre gestión del riesgo, gestión ambiental y ordenamiento territorial

El nuevo escenario territorial generado por el cambio climático y la globalización económica ha aumentado la vulnerabilidad de la población a sufrir eventos asociados a riesgos naturales. El Ordenamiento Territorial surge como una herramienta para disminuir la vulnerabilidad, en forma planificada y sustentable con el ambiente. Sin embargo, para que dicha herramienta sea realmente eficaz, es necesario que integre la Gestión del Riesgo y la Gestión Ambiental, definiéndose de esa manera una metodología integradora. Con este fin, se presentan en este artículo dos aproximaciones metodológicas surgidas de la discusión de una comunidad de práctica integrada por académicos de universidades latinoamericanas que han unido sus esfuerzos y experiencias para solucionar un problema común, y que pretende disminuir el riesgo de sus poblaciones a sufrir desastres naturales.

Aproximación metodológica a una articulación entre gestión del riesgo, gestión ambiental y ordenamiento territorial

El nuevo escenario territorial generado por el cambio climático y la globalización económica ha aumentado la vulnerabilidad de la población a sufrir eventos asociados a riesgos naturales. El Ordenamiento Territorial surge como una herramienta para disminuir la vulnerabilidad, en forma planificada y sustentable con el ambiente. Sin embargo, para que dicha herramienta sea realmente eficaz, es necesario que integre la Gestión del Riesgo y la Gestión Ambiental, definiéndose de esa manera una metodología integradora. Con este fin, se presentan en este artículo dos aproximaciones metodológicas surgidas de la discusión de una comunidad de práctica integrada por académicos de universidades latinoamericanas que han unido sus esfuerzos y experiencias para solucionar un problema común, y que pretende disminuir el riesgo de sus poblaciones a sufrir desastres naturales.

Physical and chemical oceanography in the Arctic Ocean

Data from sections across the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean occupied by the German Research Vessel Polarstern in 1987 and by the Swedish icebreaker Oden in 1991 are used to derive information on the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean halocline and on the sources of the deep waters of the Nansen, Amundsen and Makarov basins. Salinity, d18O and mass balances allow separation of the river-runoff and the sea-ice meltwater fractions contained in the Arctic halocline. This provides the basis for tracking the river-runoff signal from the shelf seas across the central Arctic Ocean to Fram Strait. The halocline has to be divided into at least three lateral regimes: the southern Nansen Basin with net sea-ice melting, the northern Nansen Basin and Amundsen Basin with net sea-ice formation and increasing river-runoff fractions, and the Canadian Basin with minimum sea-ice meltwater and maximum river-runoff fractions and water of Pacific origin. In the Canadian Basin, silicate is used as a tracer to identify Pacific water entering through Bering Strait and an attempt is made to quantify its influence on the halocline waters of the Canadian Basin. For this purpose literature data from the CESAR and LOREX ice camps are used. Based on mass balances and depending on the value of precipitation over the area of the Arctic Ocean the average mean residence time of the river-runoff fraction contained in the Arctic Ocean halocline is determined to be about 14 or 11 years. Water column inventories of river-runoff and sea-ice meltwater are calculated for a section just north of Fram Strait and implications for the ice export rate through Fram Strait are discussed. Salinity, tritium, 3He and the d18O ratio of halocline waters sampled during the 1987 Polarstern cruise to the Nansen Basin are used to estimate the mean residence time of the river-runoff component in the halocline and on the shelves of the Arctic Ocean. These estimates are done by comparing ages of the halocline waters based on a combination of tracers yielding different time information: the tritium 'vintage' age which records the time that has passed since the river-runoff entered the shelf and the tritium/3He age which reflects the time since the shelf waters left the shelf. The difference between the ages determined by these two methods is about 3 to 6 years. Correction for the initial tritium/3He age of the shelf waters (about 0.5 to 1.5 years) yields a mean residence time of the river-runoff on the shelves of about 3.5 ± 2 years. Comparison of the 18O/16O ratios of shelf water, Atlantic water and the deep waters of the Arctic Ocean indicate that the sources of the deep and bottom waters of the Eurasian Basin are located in the Barents and Kara seas.

Aproximación metodológica a una articulación entre gestión del riesgo, gestión ambiental y ordenamiento territorial

El nuevo escenario territorial generado por el cambio climático y la globalización económica ha aumentado la vulnerabilidad de la población a sufrir eventos asociados a riesgos naturales. El Ordenamiento Territorial surge como una herramienta para disminuir la vulnerabilidad, en forma planificada y sustentable con el ambiente. Sin embargo, para que dicha herramienta sea realmente eficaz, es necesario que integre la Gestión del Riesgo y la Gestión Ambiental, definiéndose de esa manera una metodología integradora. Con este fin, se presentan en este artículo dos aproximaciones metodológicas surgidas de la discusión de una comunidad de práctica integrada por académicos de universidades latinoamericanas que han unido sus esfuerzos y experiencias para solucionar un problema común, y que pretende disminuir el riesgo de sus poblaciones a sufrir desastres naturales.

Biogenic and terrigeneous components in ODP Leg 108 holes

Five Ocean Drilling Program sites (657-661), which form a north-south transect off the western periphery of the Sahara, were selected to measure the long-term history of Saharan/Sahelian dust flux and fluvial sediment discharge and the fluxes of marine CaCO3 and opal over the last 8 m.y. Sites 658 and 659 served for high-resolution studies, and Sites 657, 660, and 661 for insights into the spatial patterns of dust flux. The nearshore mean flux of opal off Cap Blanc (21 °N) showed an abrupt increase about 3 Ma that appears to reflect the main onset of coastal upwelling fertility and enhanced trade winds. At the same time, the input of river-borne clay strongly decreased, suggesting a dry up of the central Saharan rivers. Later, marked short-lived spikes of clay and opal may indicate ongoing ephemeral pulses of fluvial runoff linked to peak interglacial stages. Given the zonal dust discharge centered near 18 °N at Site 659, the aridification of the south Sahara and Sahel increased in several steps: at 4.6, 4.3, and especially at 4.0, 3.6, and 2.1 Ma, and again, at 0.8 Ma. The late Miocene and earliest Pliocene were humid. Although the central and north Saharan climate appears to be linked to the glaciation history of the Northern Hemisphere, the long-term aridification further south followed a different schedule. The spatial distribution of quartz accumulation suggests that the dust outbreaks linked to the Intertropical Convergence Zone during summer did not shift in latitude back to 4.0 Ma, at least. The short-term variations of dust output over the last 0.5 m.y. followed orbital scale pulses with a strong precessional signal, showing a link of Sahelian humidity changes to the variation of sea-surface temperature and evaporation in the tropical Atlantic.

Benthic respiration and physical oceanography on two contrasting continental margins in the western Indian Ocean: the Yemen-Somali upwelling region and the margin off Kenya

During the Netherlands Indian Ocean Project (NIOP, 1992-1993) sediment community oxygen consumption (SCOC) was measured on two continental margins in the Indian Ocean with different productivity: the productive upwelling region off Yemen-Somalia and the supposedly less productive Kenyan margin, which lacks upwelling. The two margins also differ in terms of river input (Kenya) and the more severe oxygen minimum in the Arabian Sea. Simultaneously with SCOC, distributions of benthic biomass and phytodetritus were studied. Our expectation was that benthic processes in the upwelling margin of the Arabian Sea would be relatively enhanced as a result of the higher productivity. On the Kenyan margin, SCOC (range 1-36 mmol/m**2/d) showed a clear decrease with increasing water depth, and little temporal variation was detected between June and December. Highest SCOC values of this study were recorded at 50 m depth off Kenya, with a maximum of 36 mmol/m**2/d in the northernmost part. On the margin off Yemen-Somalia, SCOC was on average lower and showed little downslope variation, 1.8-5.7 mmol/m**2/d, notably during upwelling, when the zone between 70 and 1700 m was covered with low O2 water (10-50 µM). After cessation of upwelling, SCOC at 60 m depth off Yemen increased from 5.7 to 17.6 mmol/m**2/d concurrently with an increase of the near-bottom O2 concentration (from 11 to 153 µM), suggesting a close coupling between SCOC and O2 concentration. This was demonstrated in shipboard cores in which the O2 concentration in the overlying water was raised after the cores were first incubated under in situ conditions (17 µM O2). This induced an immediate and pronounced increase of SCOC. Conversely, at deeper stations permanently within the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), SCOC showed little variation between monsoon periods. Hence, organic carbon degradation in sediments on a large part of the Yemen slope appears hampered by the oxygen deficiency of the overlying water. Macrofauna biomass and the pooled biomass of smaller organisms, estimated by the nucleic acid content of the sediment, had comparable ranges in the two areas in spite of more severe suboxic conditions in the Arabian Sea. At the Kenyan shelf, benthic fauna (macro- and meiofauna) largely followed the spatial pattern of SCOC, i.e. high values on the northern shelf-upper slope and a downslope decrease. On the Yemen-Somali margin the macrofauna distribution was more erratic. Nucleic acids displayed no clear downslope trend on either margin owing to depressed values in the OMZ, perhaps because of adverse effects of low O2 on small organisms (meiofauna and microbes). Phytodetritus distributions were different on the two margins. Whereas pigment levels decreased downslope along the Kenya margin, the upper slope off Yemen (800 m) had a distinct accumulation of mainly refractory carotenoid pigments, suggesting preservation under low 02. Because the accumulations of Corg and pigments on the Yemen slope overlap only partly, we infer a selective deposition and preservation of labile particles on the upper slope, whereas refractory material undergoes further transport downslope.