BELFAST centenarians:a case of optimised cardiovascular risk?

Centenarians are reservoirs of genetic and environmental information to successful ageing and local centenarian groups may help us to understand some of these secrets. The current centenarian cohort in Belfast survived the 1970s epidemic of death from coronary heart disease in Northern Ireland, where cardiovascular mortality was almost highest in the world. These centenarians provided an opportunity to assess biological and genetic factors important in cardiovascular risk and ageing. Methods: Thirty-five (27 female, 8 male) centenarians, participants of the Belfast Elderly Longitudinal Free-living Ageing STudy (BELFAST), were community-living and of good cognition at enrollment.

Human growth hormone and the temptations of biomedical enhancement

It is likely that humans have sought enhancements for themselves or their children for as long as they have recognised that improvements in individuals are a possibility. One genre of self-improvement in modern society can be called 'biomedical enhancements'. These include drugs, surgery and other medical interventions aimed at improving the mind, body or performance. This paper uses the case of human growth hormone (hGH) to examine the social nature of enhancements. Synthetic hGH was developed in 1985 by the pharmaceutical industry and was approved by the FDA for very specific uses, particularly treatment of growth hormone deficiency. However, it has also been promoted for a number of 'off label' uses, most of which can be deemed enhancements. Drugs approved for one treatment pave the way for use as enhancements for other problems. Claims have been made for hGH as a treatment for idiopathic shortness, as an anti-ageing agent and to improve athletic performance. Using the hGH case, we are able to distinguish three faces of biomedical enhancement: normalisation, repair and performance edge. Given deeply ingrained social and individual goals in American society, the temptations of biomedical enhancements provide inducement for individuals and groups to modify their situation. We examine the temptations of enhancement in terms of issues such as unnaturalness, fairness, risk and permanence, and shifting social meanings. In our conclusions, we outline the potentials and pitfalls of biomedical enhancement.

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programs, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals’ baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

Treatment approaches for diabetes and dyslipidemia

Dyslipidemia is an important risk factor for cardiovascular complications in persons with diabetes. Low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) is the 'cornerstone' for assessment of lipoprotein-associated risk. However, LDL-C levels do not reflect the classic 'diabetic dyslipidemia' of hypertriglyceridemia and low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C). Measurements of plasma apolipoprotein B100 concentrations and non-HDL-C may improve the definition of dyslipidemia. Statins, nicotinic acid and fibrates have roles in treating dyslipidemia in diabetes. Residual risk (i.e. risk that persists after correction of 'conventional' plasma lipoprotein abnormalities) is a new concept in the role of dyslipidemia in the pathogenesis of diabetic vascular complications. For example, regardless of plasma levels, lipoprotein extravasation through a leaking retinal blood barrier and subsequent modification may be crucial in the development of diabetic retinopathy. The current approach to the management of dyslipidemia in diabetes is briefly summarized, followed by a discussion of new concepts of residual risk and emerging lipoprotein-related mechanisms for vascular disease in diabetes.

Interleukin 3 and schizophrenia:the impact of sex and family history

Chromosome 5q21-33 has been implicated in harboring risk genes for schizophrenia. In this paper, we report evidence that multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms in and around interleukin 3 (IL3) are associated with the disease in the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF), the Irish Case-Control Study of Schizophrenia (ICCSS) and the Irish Trio Study of Schizophrenia (ITRIO). The associations are sex-specific and depend on the family history (FH) of schizophrenia. In all three samples, rs31400 shows female-specific and FH-dependent associations (P=0.0062, 0.0647 and 0.0284 for the ISHDSF, ICCSS and ITRIO, respectively). Several markers have similar associations in one or two of the three samples. In haplotype analyses, identical risk and protective haplotypes are identified in the ISHDSF and ITRIO samples in several multimarker combinations. For ICCSS, the same haplotypes are implicated; however, the risk haplotypes observed in the family samples become protective. Several significant markers, rs440970, rs31400 and rs2069803, are located in and around known estrogen response elements, promoter and enhancer of the IL3 gene. They may explain the sex-specific associations and be functional for the expression of IL3 gene.

Differences in cancer awareness and beliefs between Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK (the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership):Do they contribute to differences in cancer survival?

Background:There are wide international differences in 1-year cancer survival. The UK and Denmark perform poorly compared with other high-income countries with similar health care systems: Australia, Canada and Sweden have good cancer survival rates, Norway intermediate survival rates. The objective of this study was to examine the pattern of differences in cancer awareness and beliefs across these countries to identify where these might contribute to the pattern of survival.Methods:We carried out a population-based telephone interview survey of 19 079 men and women aged =50 years in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure.Results:Awareness that the risk of cancer increased with age was lower in the UK (14%), Canada (13%) and Australia (16%) but was higher in Denmark (25%), Norway (29%) and Sweden (38%). Symptom awareness was no lower in the UK and Denmark than other countries. Perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation were highest in the UK, in particular being worried about wasting the doctor's time (UK 34%; Canada 21%; Australia 14%; Denmark 12%; Norway 11%; Sweden 9%).Conclusion:The UK had low awareness of age-related risk and the highest perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation, but symptom awareness in the UK did not differ from other countries. Denmark had higher awareness of age-related risk and few perceived barriers to symptomatic presentation. This suggests that other factors must be involved in explaining Denmark's poor survival rates. In the UK, interventions that address barriers to prompt presentation in primary care should be developed and evaluated. © 2013 Cancer Research UK. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Potential Impact of Four-dimensional Computed Tomography (4DCT) on Toxicity, Outcomes and Dose Escalation for Radical Lung Cancer Radiotherapy

AIMS: To investigate the potential dosimetric and clinical benefits predicted by using four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) compared with 3DCT in the planning of radical radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:
Twenty patients were planned using free breathing 4DCT then retrospectively delineated on three-dimensional helical scan sets (3DCT). Beam arrangement and total dose (55 Gy in 20 fractions) were matched for 3D and 4D plans. Plans were compared for differences in planning target volume (PTV) geometrics and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for organs at risk using dose volume histograms. Tumour control probability and NTCP were modelled using the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model. This was compared with a predictive clinical algorithm (Maastro), which is based on patient characteristics, including: age, performance status, smoking history, lung function, tumour staging and concomitant chemotherapy, to predict survival and toxicity outcomes. Potential therapeutic gains were investigated by applying isotoxic dose escalation to both plans using constraints for mean lung dose (18 Gy), oesophageal maximum (70 Gy) and spinal cord maximum (48 Gy).

RESULTS:
4DCT based plans had lower PTV volumes, a lower dose to organs at risk and lower predicted NTCP rates on LKB modelling (P < 0.006). The clinical algorithm showed no difference for predicted 2-year survival and dyspnoea rates between the groups, but did predict for lower oesophageal toxicity with 4DCT plans (P = 0.001). There was no correlation between LKB modelling and the clinical algorithm for lung toxicity or survival. Dose escalation was possible in 15/20 cases, with a mean increase in dose by a factor of 1.19 (10.45 Gy) using 4DCT compared with 3DCT plans.

CONCLUSIONS:
4DCT can theoretically improve therapeutic ratio and dose escalation based on dosimetric parameters and mathematical modelling. However, when individual characteristics are incorporated, this gain may be less evident in terms of survival and dyspnoea rates. 4DCT allows potential for isotoxic dose escalation, which may lead to improved local control and better overall survival.

Experiences of youth justice: Youth justice discourses and their multiple effects

Interventions within youth justice systems draw on a range of rationales and philosophies. Traditionally demarcated by a welfare/justice binary, the complex array of contemporary rationales meld different philosophies and practices, suggesting a mutability that gives this sphere a continued (re)productive and felt effect. While it may be increasingly difficult to ascertain which of these discourses is dominant in different jurisdictions in the UK, particular models of justice are perceived to be more prominent (Muncie, 2006). Traditionally it is assumed that Northern Ireland prioritises restoration, Wales prioritises rights, England priorities risk and Scotland welfare (McVie, 2011; Muncie, 2008, 2011). However, how these discourses are enacted in practice, how multiple and competing rationales circulate within them and most fundamentally how they are experienced by young people is less clear. This paper, based on research with young people who have experienced the full range of interventions in the youth justice system in Northern Ireland examines their narratives of ‘justice’. It considers how different discourses might influence the same intervention and how the deployment of multiple rationalities gives the experience of ‘justice’ its effect.

Genetic polymorphisms and kidney transplant outcomes

Purpose of review: Gene polymorphism studies are growing at a quasiexponential rate and aim to improve immediate and long-term outcomes in renal transplantation. This review highlights recent evidence and potential future directions for genetic research studies.

Recent findings: Studies are largely based on immunity, inflammation and pharmacogenetics, investigating mostly 'surrogate' outcomes with sometimes conflicting results. However, the last 12 months has also heralded the emergence of important genome-wide association studies on transplantation, more robust replicated multicentre analyses of candidate gene variants, meta-analyses, and an increasing interest in copy number variation and donor genetics.

Summary: These studies set the scene for further investigation, aiming to understand pathways of disease and biomarkers of risk, and are leading to a greater understanding of the biology of transplantation. Future studies will require focus on donor : recipient and gene : environment interactions, and an integrated approach of 'transplantomics' to evaluate long-term outcomes in multinational collaborations.

Consideration of coastal risk in the Irish spatial planning process

The vulnerability of coastal areas to associated hazards is increasing due to population growth, development pressure and climate change. It is incumbent on coastal governance regimes to address the vulnerability of coastal inhabitants to these hazards. This is especially so at the local level where development planning and control has a direct impact on the vulnerability of coastal communities. To reduce the vulnerability of coastal populations, risk mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be built into local spatial planning processes. Local government, however, operates within a complex hierarchal governance framework which may promote or limit particular actions. It is important, therefore, to understand how local coastal planning practices are shaped by national and supranational entities. Local governments also have to respond to the demands of local populations. Consequently, it is important to understand local populations’ perceptions of coastal risk and its management. Adopting an in-depth study of coastal planning in County Mayo, Ireland, this paper evaluates: (a) how European and national policies and legislation shape coastal risk management at local level; (b) the incorporation of risk management strategies into local plans; and (c) local perception of coastal risks and risk management. Despite a strong steer from supranational and national legislation and policy, statutory local plans are found to be lacking in appropriate risk mitigation or adaptation strategies. Local residents appear to be lulled into a sense of complacency towards these risks because of the low level of attention afforded to them by the local planning authorities. To avoid potentially disastrous consequences for local residents and businesses, it is imperative that this situation is redressed urgently. Based on our analysis, we recommend: the development and implementation of a national ICZM strategy, supported by detailed local ICZM plans; and obliging local government to address known risks in their plans rather than defer them to project level decision making.

Carotenoids and health in older people

As the proportion of older people increases, so will chronic disease incidence and the proportion of the population living with disability. Therefore, new approaches to maintain health for as long as possible in this age group are required. Carotenoids are a group of polyphenolic compounds found predominantly in fruit and vegetables that have been proposed to have anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects. Such properties may impact on the risk diseases which predominate in older people, and also ageing-related physiological changes. Working out the effect of carotenoid intake versus fruit and vegetable intake is difficult, and the strong correlation between individual carotenoid intakes also complicates any attempt to examine individual carotenoid health effects. Similarly, research to determine whether carotenoids consumed as supplements have similar benefits to increased dietary intake through whole foods, is still required. However, reviewing the recent evidence suggests that carotenoid intake and status are relatively consistently associated with reduced CVD risk, although β-carotene supplementation does not reduce CVD risk and increases lung cancer risk. Increased lycopene intake may reduce prostate cancer progression, with a potential role for carotenoids at other cancer sites. Lutein and zeaxanthin have a plausible role in the maintenance of eye health, whilst an association between carotenoid intake and cognitive and physical health appears possible, although research is limited to date. Given this accruing evidence base to support a specific role for certain carotenoids and ageing, current dietary advice to consume a diet rich in fruit and vegetables would appear prudent, and efforts maintained to encourage increased intake.

Susceptibility to Invasive Meningococcal Disease: Polymorphism of Complement System Genes and Neisseria meningitidis Factor H Binding Protein

BACKGROUND: Neisseria meningitidis can cause severe infection in humans. Polymorphism of Complement Factor H (CFH) is associated with altered risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). We aimed to find whether polymorphism of other complement genes altered risk and whether variation of N. meningitidis factor H binding protein (fHBP) affected the risk association.

METHODS: We undertook a case-control study with 309 European cases and 5,200 1958 Birth Cohort and National Blood Service cohort controls. We used additive model logistic regression, accepting P<0.05 as significant after correction for multiple testing. The effects of fHBP subfamily on the age at infection and severity of disease was tested using the independent samples median test and Student's T test. The effect of CFH polymorphism on the N. meningitidis fHBP subfamily was investigated by logistic regression and Chi squared test.

RESULTS: Rs12085435 A in C8B was associated with odds ratio (OR) of IMD (0.35 [95% CI 0.19-0.67]; P = 0.03 after correction). A CFH haplotype tagged by rs3753396 G was associated with IMD (OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.42-0.76], P = 1.6x10-4). There was no bacterial load (CtrA cycle threshold) difference associated with carriage of this haplotype. Host CFH haplotype and meningococcal fHBP subfamily were not associated. Individuals infected with meningococci expressing subfamily A fHBP were younger than those with subfamily B fHBP meningococci (median 1 vs 2 years; P = 0.025).

DISCUSSION: The protective CFH haplotype alters odds of IMD without affecting bacterial load for affected heterozygotes. CFH haplotype did not affect the likelihood of infecting meningococci having either fHBP subfamily. The association between C8B rs12085435 and IMD requires independent replication. The CFH association is of interest because it is independent of known functional polymorphisms in CFH. As fHBP-containing vaccines are now in use, relationships between CFH polymorphism and vaccine effectiveness and side-effects may become important.

Communicating with children in care: why it is important and how it is done

This paper details some emerging findings from an ESRC project whose focus is social workers talking with and listening to children.

How much risk ought we to take? Exploring the possibilities of risk-sensitive consequentialism in the context of climate engineering

When it comes to assessing the deontic status of acts and policies in the context of risk and uncertainty, moral theories are often at a loss. In this paper we hope to show that employing a multi-dimensional consequentialist framework provides ethical guidance for decision-making in complex situations. The paper starts by briefly rehearsing consequentialist responses to the issue of risk, as well as their shortcomings. We then go on to present our own proposal based on three dimensions: wellbeing, fairness and probability. In the last section we apply our approach to a comparison of different climate policy options, including stratospheric solar-radiation management.