The past, present and future of central banking

The financial crisis, on the one hand, and the recourse to ‘unconventional’ monetary policy, on the other, have given a sharp jolt to perceptions of the role and status of central banks. In this paper we start with a brief ‘contrarian’ history of central banks since the second world war, which presents the Great Moderation and the restricted focus on inflation targeting as a temporary aberration from the norm. We then discuss how recent developments in fiscal and monetary policy have affected the role and status of central banks, notably their relationships with governments, before considering the environment central banks will face in the near and middle future and how they will have to change to address it.

Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.

Peptide substrate specificity of the membrane-bound metalloprotease of Leishmania.

The promastigote surface protease (PSP) of Leishmania is a neutral membrane-bound zinc enzyme. The protease has no exopeptidase activity and does not cleave a large selection of substrates with chromogenic and fluorogenic leaving groups at the P1' site. The substrate specificity of the enzyme was studied by using natural and synthetic peptides of known amino acid sequence. The identification of 11 cleavage sites indicates that the enzyme preferentially cleaves peptides at the amino side when hydrophobic residues are in the P1' site and basic amino acid residues in the P2' and P3' sites. In addition, tyrosine residues are commonly found at the P1 site. Hydrolysis is not, however, restricted to these residues. These results have allowed the synthesis of a model peptide, H2N-L-I-A-Y-L-K-K-A-T-COOH, which is cleaved by PSP between the tyrosine and leucine residues with a kcat/Km ratio of 1.8 X 10(6) M-1 s-1. Furthermore, a synthetic nonapeptide overlapping the last four amino acids of the prosequence and the first five residues of mature PSP was found to be cleaved by the protease at the expected site to release the mature enzyme. This result suggests a possible autocatalytic mechanism for the activation of the protease. Finally, the hydroxamate-derivatized dipeptide Cbz-Tyr-Leu-NHOH was shown to inhibit PSP competitively with a KI of 17 microM.

Immunopathology of american cutaneous leishmaniasis. Modulation of MHC class II gene products by Keratinocytes before and after glucantime therapy

Epidermal changes from 32 cutaneous and 3 mucosal American leishmaniasis (ACL) active lesions were studied for HLA-DR, -DP expression, Lanerhans cells and lymphocyte infiltration. In addition to a DR and DQ positivity at the surface of the cells of the inflammatory infiltrate, a strong reaction for DR antigens was detected on keratinocytes. Hyperplasia of Langerhans cells was present in al cutaneous lesions and epidermis was infiltrated by T lymphocytes. When healed lesions of 14 of these subjects were re-biopsied 1 to 12 months after the end of pentavalent antimonial therapy, MHC class antigens could no longer be seen on keratinocytes. Our data represrn evidence for hhe reversibility of the abnormal HLA-DR expression by keratinocytes in ACL after Glucantime therapy or spontaneous scar formation, demonstrating that this expresion is restricted to the period of active lesions. The present findings can be regarded as an indirect evidence that keratinocytes may be involved in the immunopathology of ACL.

Trypanosoma cruzi: serum antibody reactivity to the parasite antigens in susceptible and resistant mice

The specific antibody responses were compared among susceptible (A/Sn), moderately susceptible (Balb/c) and resistant (C57 BL/lOJ) mice infected with Trypanosoma cruzi (Y strain). Sera obtained during the second week of infection recognized a surface trypomastigote antigen of apparent Mr 80 kDa while displaying complex reactivity to surface epimastigote antigens. Complex trypomastigote antigens recognition was detected around the middle of the third week of infection. No major differences were observed along the infection, among the three strains of mice, neither in the patterns of surface antigen recognition by sera, nor in the titres of antibodies against blood trypomastigotes (lytic antibodies), tissue culture trypomastigotes or epimastigotes. On immunoblot analysis, however, IgG of the resistant strain displayed the most complex array of specificities against both trypo and epimastigote antigens, followed by the susceptible strain. IgM antibodies exhibited a more restricted antigen reactivity, in the three mouse strains studied. Balb/c sera (IgG and IgM) showed the least complex patterns of reactivity to antigens in the range of 30 kDa to 80 kDa. The onset of reactivity in the serum to trypomastigote surface antigens was also dependent on the parasite load to which the experimental animal was subjected.

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity, endogenous skill formation and stochastic shocks to public consumption as well as total factor and capital equipment productivity. Our main finding is that an empirically relevant restriction which does not allow the relative supply of skilled labour to adjust in response to aggregate shocks, signi cantly changes the cyclical properties of optimal labour taxes. Under a restricted relative skill supply, the government fi nds it optimal to adjust labour income tax rates so that the average net returns to skilled and unskilled labour hours exhibit the same dynamic behaviour as under fl exible skill supply.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Indirect costs of parasitism are shaped by variation in the type of immune challenge and food availability

Parasites can inflict indirect fitness costs to their hosts by eliciting costly immune responses. These costs depend on the type and amount of immunostimulants presented to the host immune system but also on the amount of resources available to fuel host immune responses. Here, we investigated how the relative costs of two different types of immune challenge are modulated by variation in food availability. We injected nestling tawny owls (Strix aluco) with either 10 mu g of phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) or 20 mu g of lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and subsequently raised them under two different food regimes (food-restricted vs. ad libitum). After controlling for food consumption, we found that LPS-injected nestlings lost more body mass than PHA-injected ones only when food-restricted. We also found that body mass gain of owlets fed ad libitum decreased with the intensity of the skin swelling response against LPS, but not PHA. These experimental and correlative results suggest that nestling tawny owls suffered greater immune costs when treated with LPS than PHA, and that variation in the costs of two different types of immune challenge can be exacerbated under conditions of low food availability. Our study highlights the importance of taking into consideration the interplay between host immunity and nutrition in the study of indirect costs of parasitism.

Attribution d'intentions hostiles et intentions comportementales agressives dans un contexte intergroupes

We conducted two experiments to demonstrate the relevance of group membership (in-group vs. out-group) in the processing of conflictual social interactions as described by Dodge (1980; Dodge, Pettit, Mcclaskey, & Brown, 1986). In the first study, we highlighted the impact of group membership on the attribution of hostile intents and on reactions to a provocation. In the second study we found that the impact of group membership on aggressive reaction intents is moderated by the status of people in the interaction, and that this effect is partially mediated by attribution of hostile intents. We conclude by stressing the necessity to integrate intergroup dynamics in the social information processing model elaborated by Dodge.

Investigation of field and diffusion time dependence of the diffusion-weighted signal at ultrahigh magnetic fields.

Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the number of high-magnetic-field MRI magnets. However, the exact effect of a high magnetic field strength (B0 ) on diffusion-weighted MR signals is not yet fully understood. The goal of this study was to investigate the influence of different high magnetic field strengths (9.4 T and 14.1 T) and diffusion times (9, 11, 13, 15, 17 and 24 ms) on the diffusion-weighted signal in rat brain white matter. At a short diffusion time (9 ms), fractional anisotropy values were found to be lower at 14.1 T than at 9.4 T, but this difference disappeared at longer diffusion times. A simple two-pool model was used to explain these findings. The model describes the white matter as a first hindered compartment (often associated with the extra-axonal space), characterized by a faster orthogonal diffusion and a lower fractional anisotropy, and a second restricted compartment (often associated with the intra-axonal space), characterized by a slower orthogonal diffusion (i.e. orthogonal to the axon direction) and a higher fractional anisotropy. Apparent T2 relaxation time measurements of the hindered and restricted pools were performed. The shortening of the pseudo-T2 value from the restricted compartment with B0 is likely to be more pronounced than the apparent T2 changes in the hindered compartment. This study suggests that the observed differences in diffusion tensor imaging parameters between the two magnetic field strengths at short diffusion time may be related to differences in the apparent T2 values between the pools. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Le développement de l'espace de culte en Grèce centrale et dans le Péloponnèse entre l'Helladique Récent IIIB et le Géométrique Récent

Notre travail s'insère dans un vaste courant de recherche qui concerne le développement du phénomène religieux en Grèce entre la période mycénienne et l'époque archaïque et qui touche non seulement à l'archéologie, mais aussi à l'histoire de la religion et à la linguistique. Avant de présenter l'objet d'étude choisi (l'espace de culte) et de définir nos perspectives, il nous semble pourtant nécessaire de tracer les lignes principales relatives au débat déclenché par les théories de continuité ou de rupture et aux développements plus récents (premier chapitre). Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous illustrerons la structure de notre travail et nous présenterons la méthode élaborée et les sources utilisées pour retracer l'évolution des lieux cultuels au fil du temps. Dans ce but, le recensement et l'analyse de ceux-ci sur la base de principes fondamentaux de l'archéologie du culte sera complémentaire à l'examen de leurs rapports avec le territoire environnant entre l'Helladique IIIB et le Géométrique Récent. Cette approche sera appliquée à l'analyse de contextes régionaux considérés (troisième chapitre) et nous permettra d'avancer de nouvelles hypothèses concernant la fréquentation et dans la destination des espaces de culte de la Grèce centrale et du Péloponnèse durant la période considérée (quatrième et cinquième chapitre).

The Early Cretaceous San Juan Plutonic Suite, Ecuador: A magma chamber in an oceanic plateau ?

Sections through an oceanic plateau are preserved in tectonic slices in the Western Cordillera of Ecuador (South America). The San Juan section is a sequence of mafic-ultramafic cumulates. To establish that these plutonic rocks formed in an oceanic plateau setting, we have developed criteria that discriminate intrusions of oceanic plateaus from those of other tectonic settings. The mineralogy and crystallization sequence of the cumulates are similar to those of intra-plate magmas. Clinopyroxene predominates throughout, and orthopyroxene is only a minor component. Rocks of intermediate composition are absent, and hornblende is restricted to the uppermost massive gabbros within the sequence. The ultramafic cumulates are very depleted in light rare-earth elements (LREE), whereas the gabbros have flat or slightly enriched LREE patterns. The composition of the basaltic liquid in equilibrium with the peridotite, calculated using olivine compositions and REE contents of clinopyroxene, contains between 16% and 8% MgO and has a flat REE pattern. This melt is geochemically similar to other accreted oceanic plateau basalts, isotropic gabbros, and differentiated sills in western Ecuador. The Ecuadorian intrusive and extrusive rocks have a narrow range of epsilonNd(i) (+8 to +5) and have a rather large range of Pb isotopic ratios. Pb isotope systematics of the San Juan plutonic rocks and mineral separates lie along a mixing line between the depleted mantle (DMM) and the enriched-plume end members. This suggests that the Ecuadorian plutonic rocks generated from the mixing of two mantle sources, a depleted mid-oceanic ridge basalt (MORB) source and an enriched one. The latter is characterized by high (Pb-207/Pb-204)(i) ratios and could reflect a contamination by recycled either lower continental crust or oceanic pelagic sediments and (or) altered oceanic crust (enriched mantle type I, EMI). These data suggest that the San Juan sequence represents the plutonic components of an Early Cretaceous oceanic plateau, which accreted in the Late Cretaceous to the Ecuadorian margin.

Revisiting the specificity of the MHC class II transactivator CIITA in vivo.

CIITA is a master regulatory factor for the expression of MHC class II (MHC-II) and accessory genes involved in Ag presentation. It has recently been suggested that CIITA also regulates numerous other genes having diverse functions within and outside the immune system. To determine whether these genes are indeed relevant targets of CIITA in vivo, we studied their expression in CIITA-transgenic and CIITA-deficient mice. In contrast to the decisive control of MHC-II and related genes by CIITA, nine putative non-MHC target genes (Eif3s2, Kpna6, Tap1, Yars, Col1a2, Ctse, Ptprr, Tnfsf6 and Plxna1) were found to be CIITA independent in all cell types examined. Two other target genes, encoding IL-4 and IFN-gamma, were indeed found to be up- and down-regulated, respectively, in CIITA-transgenic CD4(+) T cells. However, there was no correlation between MHC-II expression and this Th2 bias at the level of individual transgenic T cells, indicating an indirect control by CIITA. These results show that MHC-II-restricted Ag presentation, and its indirect influences on T cells, remains the only pathway under direct control by CIITA in vivo. They also imply that precisely regulated MHC-II expression is essential for maintaining a proper Th1-Th2 balance.