Sovereign default, domestic banks and financial institutions

We present a model of sovereign debt in which, contrary to conventional wisdom, government defaultsare costly because they destroy the balance sheets of domestic banks. In our model, better financial institutionsallow banks to be more leveraged, thereby making them more vulnerable to sovereign defaults.Our predictions: government defaults should lead to declines in private credit, and these declines should belarger in countries where financial institutions are more developed and banks hold more government bonds.In these same countries, government defaults should be less likely. Using a large panel of countries, we findevidence consistent with these predictions.

Network governance and the domestic adoption of soft rules

European regulatory networks (ERNs) are in charge of producing and disseminating non-bindings standards, guidelines and recommendations in a number of important domains, such as banking and finance, electricity and gas, telecommunications, and competition regulation. The goal of these soft rules is to promote 'best practices', achieve co-ordination among regulatory authorities and ensure the consistent application of harmonized pro-competition rules across Europe. This contribution examines the domestic adoption of the soft rules developed within the four main ERNs. Different factors are expected to influence the process of domestic adoption: the resources of regulators; the existence of a review panel; and the interdependence of the issues at stake. The empirical analysis supports hypotheses about the relevance of network-level factors: monitoring and public reporting procedures increase the final level of adoption, while soft rules concerning highly interdependent policy areas are adopted earlier.

Domestic architecture and social differences in North-Eastern Iberia during the iron age (c.525-200 BC)

This paper is concerned with the organization of societies in north-eastern Iberia (present-day Catalonia) during the Iron Age, using data provided by domestic architecture and settlement organization. I offer an analysis of the social differences detected in the dwellings based on a sample of houses excavated at different types of settlement. Although many Iberian houses had simple layouts and small surface areas, some larger dwellings at the main sites are distinguished by the shape of their ground plans, their surface areas, architectural features, and central locations; these houses are believed to be the residences of the Iberian elite. Such dwellings are not found at all sites and the data suggest that there was a relationship between the category of the settlement (or its function) and the types of dwelling in it.

Reproducibility of diabetes quality of care indicators as reported by patients and physicians.

INTRODUCTION: Self-report of diabetes care has moderate validity and is prone to under- and over-reporting. We assessed reproducibility of a range of processes and outcomes of diabetes care as reported by patients and physicians. METHODS: In a Swiss community-based survey, patients with diabetes and physicians independently reported past 12 months processes of care (HbA1c, lipids, microalbuminuria, blood pressure, weight, foot and eye examinations) and last measured values of HbA1c, height, weight and blood pressure. For dichotomous variables, we assessed reliability by Cohen's kappa and agreement by uniform kappa. For continuous measures, we used Lin's concordance correlation coefficient and limits of agreement, respectively. RESULTS: Mean age of the 210 patients was 65 years; 40% were women, and 51% had diabetes for >10 years. Agreement was good for recommended processes of care such as blood pressure (uniform kappa = 0.94), HbA1c (0.93), weight (0.88) and lipid (0.78), but lower for microalbuminuria, foot and eye examinations (all <0.50). Cohen's kappa values were all low (<0.25). Comparisons of reported continuous variables showed large limits of agreement for height (±6 cm) and weight (8-10 kg) despite high concordance correlation coefficients (0.93 and 0.97). Concordance correlation coefficients were smaller for HbA1c (0.72) and blood pressure (0.5-0.6), with large limits of agreement (±2% and ±25 mmHg). CONCLUSION: While agreement of routine processes of care was good, agreement was less satisfactory for microalbuminuria, foot and eye examinations. Reports of continuous outcomes yielded good reliability but too wide limits of agreement. Quality of care evaluation relying on self-report only should be made cautiously.

How Accurate Are Blood (or Breath) Tests for Identifying Self-Reported Heavy Drinking Among People with Alcohol Dependence?

AIMS: Managing patients with alcohol dependence includes assessment for heavy drinking, typically by asking patients. Some recommend biomarkers to detect heavy drinking but evidence of accuracy is limited. METHODS: Among people with dependence, we assessed the performance of disialo-carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (%dCDT, ≥1.7%), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT, ≥66 U/l), either %dCDT or GGT positive, and breath alcohol (> 0) for identifying 3 self-reported heavy drinking levels: any heavy drinking (≥4 drinks/day or >7 drinks/week for women, ≥5 drinks/day or >14 drinks/week for men), recurrent (≥5 drinks/day on ≥5 days) and persistent heavy drinking (≥5 drinks/day on ≥7 consecutive days). Subjects (n = 402) with dependence and current heavy drinking were referred to primary care and assessed 6 months later with biomarkers and validated self-reported calendar method assessment of past 30-day alcohol use. RESULTS: The self-reported prevalence of any, recurrent and persistent heavy drinking was 54, 34 and 17%. Sensitivity of %dCDT for detecting any, recurrent and persistent self-reported heavy drinking was 41, 53 and 66%. Specificity was 96, 90 and 84%, respectively. %dCDT had higher sensitivity than GGT and breath test for each alcohol use level but was not adequately sensitive to detect heavy drinking (missing 34-59% of the cases). Either %dCDT or GGT positive improved sensitivity but not to satisfactory levels, and specificity decreased. Neither a breath test nor GGT was sufficiently sensitive (both tests missed 70-80% of cases). CONCLUSIONS: Although biomarkers may provide some useful information, their sensitivity is low the incremental value over self-report in clinical settings is questionable.

Numerical analysis of including phase change material in a domestic hot water cylinder

The domestic hot water cylinder incorporates encapsulated pcm placed in 57 vertical pipes. The use of PCM increases the thermal energy storage capacity of the cylinder and allows the use of low cost electricity during low peak periods. After experimental validation the numerical model developed in the project will be used to optimize the distribution of the pcm inside the water tank.