Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

A 700-year paleoecological record of boreal ecosystem responses to climatic variation from Alaska

Recent observations and model simulations have highlighted the sensitivity of the forest - tundra ecotone to climatic forcing. In contrast, paleoecological studies have not provided evidence of tree-line fluctuations in response to Holocene climatic changes in Alaska, suggesting that the forest - tundra boundary in certain areas may be relatively stable at multicentennial to millennial time scales. We conducted a multiproxy study of sediment cores from an Alaskan lake near the altitudinal limits of key boreal-forest species. Paleoecological data were compared with independent climatic reconstructions to assess ecosystem responses of the forest - tundra boundary to Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic. uctuations. Pollen, diatom, charcoal, macrofossil, and magnetic analyses provide the first continuous record of vegetation -. re - climate interactions at decadal to centennial time scales during the past 700 years from southern Alaska. Boreal-forest diebacks characterized by declines of Picea mariana, P. glauca, and tree Betula occurred during the LIA ( AD 1500 - 1800), whereas shrubs ( Alnus viridis, Betula glandulosa/nana) and herbaceous taxa (Epilobium, Aconitum) expanded. Marked increases in charcoal abundance and changes in magnetic properties suggest increases in. re importance and soil erosion during the same period. In addition, the conspicuous reduction or disappearance of certain aquatic ( e. g., Isoetes, Nuphar, Pediastrum) and wetland ( Sphagnum) plants and major shifts in diatom assemblages suggest pronounced lake-level. uctuations and rapid ecosystem reorganization in response to LIA climatic deterioration. Our results imply that temperature shifts of 1 - 2 degrees C, when accompanied by major changes in moisture balance, can greatly alter high-altitudinal terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems, including conversion between boreal-forest tree line and tundra. The climatic and ecosystem variations in our study area appear to be coherent with changes in solar irradiance, suggesting that changes in solar activity contributed to the environmental instability of the past 700 years.

Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years

The thermometer-based global surface temperature time series (GST) commands a prominent role in the evidence for global warming, yet this record has considerable uncertainty. An independent record with better geographic coverage would be valuable in understanding recent change in the context of natural variability. We compiled the Paleo Index (PI) from 173 temperature-sensitive proxy time series (corals, ice cores, speleothems, lake and ocean sediments, historical documents). Each series was normalized to produce index values of change relative to a 1901–2000 base period; the index values were then averaged. From 1880 to 1995, the index trends significantly upward, similar to the GST. Smaller-scale aspects of the GST including two warming trends and a warm interval during the 1940s are also observed in the PI. The PI extends to 1730 with 67 records. The upward trend appears to begin in the early 19th century but the year-to-year variability is large and the 1730–1929 trend is small.

A 13-Year Summary of the ISU Beef Cow Business Record

A 13-year summary of the Iowa State University Extension Service’s Beef Cow Business Record (BCBR) was compiled to show the trends in cost, profit, and production for beef-cow enterprises in Iowa. During these 13 years, 966 yearly records were summarized on herds with an average size of 74.6 cows. Each year-end summary sorts the producers with profits in the top and the bottom thirds of the group so that differences can be analyzed. The average cost to maintain a beef cow from 1982 to 1994 was $370.80. Cost components included in this average total were: feed and pasture, $177.10; operating, $45.40; depreciation, taxes, and insurance, $19.70; labor, $44.90; and capital, $83.70. Producers sorted into the top one-third profit group had 13-year average total cow costs of $309.80, but the bottom onethird profit group averaged $437.10. Economic returns per cow for these same 13 years were: return to capital, labor, and management, $139.50; return to labor and management, $56.20; and net profit, $20.20. Top-profit producers had an average net profit of $126.20 per cow, whereas the least profitable group had an average loss of $107.40. Of this $233.60 difference, $127.30 was due to production cost, and the remaining $106.30 was caused by gross return differences. The average number of pounds of beef produced per cow from 1984 through 1994 was 567. This production was achieved with 2.5 acres of pasture, 3.9 acres of cornstalk grazing, and 4,675 pounds of stored feed per cow unit. Top-profit producers used 673 pounds of stored feed per hundredweight of production, but the least profitable producers used 1,015 pounds. Top-profit producers produced 74 pounds more per cow while using 1,313 pounds less stored feed.

New data on the Lateglacial period of SW Europe: a high resolution multiproxy record from Laguna de la Roya (NW Iberia)

High-resolution multiproxy analyses were performed on a 128 cm section of organic sediments accumulated in a small mountain lake in NW Iberia (Laguna de la Roya, 1608 m asl). The pollen stratigraphy together with radiocarbon dating provided the basis for a chronology ranging from 15,600 to 10,500 cal yr BP. Chironomid-inferred July air temperatures suggest a temperature range from 7 to 13 degrees C, also evidencing two well-established cold periods which may be equivalent to the INTIMATE stages GS-2a and GS-1. Furthermore, a number of short cold events (with summer temperatures dropping about 0.5-1 degrees C) appear intercalated within the Lateglacial Interstadial (possibly equivalent to the INTIMATE cold events GI-1d, GI-1c2 and GI-1b) and the early Holocene (possibly equivalent to the 11.2 k event). The temperature variations predicted by our reconstruction allow explaining the changes in local conditions and productivity of the lake inferred from the biological record of the same sediment core. Furthermore, they also agree with the local and regional vegetation dynamics, and the main oscillations deduced for the vegetation belts. Based on its chronology our multiproxy record indicates a similar temperature development in NW Iberia as inferred by the Greenland delta O-18 record, the marine deep-sea records off the Atlantic Iberian Margin, and other chironomid-based Lateglacial temperature reconstructions from Europe. Nevertheless, the impact of most of the less intense Lateglacial/early Holocene cold events in NW Iberia was most probably limited to very sensitive sites that were very close to ecotonal situations. Particularly, our new pollen record indicates that they were represented as three minor environmental crises occurring during the Lateglacial Interestadial in this area. The Older Dryas event (in our usage corresponding to the Aegelsee Oscillation in Central Europe and event GI-1d in central Greenland) has previously been described in this region, but its age and duration (ca 14,250-14050 cal yr BP) is now better constrained. The two subsequent stages, La Roya I (ca 13,600-13,400 cal yr BP) and La Roya II (ca 13,300-12,900 cal yr BP) have been described for first time in NW Iberia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.