Machine learning approaches to analysing textual injury surveillance data: A systematic review

Objective To synthesise recent research on the use of machine learning approaches to mining textual injury surveillance data. Design Systematic review. Data sources The electronic databases which were searched included PubMed, Cinahl, Medline, Google Scholar, and Proquest. The bibliography of all relevant articles was examined and associated articles were identified using a snowballing technique. Selection criteria For inclusion, articles were required to meet the following criteria: (a) used a health-related database, (b) focused on injury-related cases, AND used machine learning approaches to analyse textual data. Methods The papers identified through the search were screened resulting in 16 papers selected for review. Articles were reviewed to describe the databases and methodology used, the strength and limitations of different techniques, and quality assurance approaches used. Due to heterogeneity between studies meta-analysis was not performed. Results Occupational injuries were the focus of half of the machine learning studies and the most common methods described were Bayesian probability or Bayesian network based methods to either predict injury categories or extract common injury scenarios. Models were evaluated through either comparison with gold standard data or content expert evaluation or statistical measures of quality. Machine learning was found to provide high precision and accuracy when predicting a small number of categories, was valuable for visualisation of injury patterns and prediction of future outcomes. However, difficulties related to generalizability, source data quality, complexity of models and integration of content and technical knowledge were discussed. Conclusions The use of narrative text for injury surveillance has grown in popularity, complexity and quality over recent years. With advances in data mining techniques, increased capacity for analysis of large databases, and involvement of computer scientists in the injury prevention field, along with more comprehensive use and description of quality assurance methods in text mining approaches, it is likely that we will see a continued growth and advancement in knowledge of text mining in the injury field.

How do experts think about statistics? Hints for improving undergraduate and postgraduate training

Experts are increasingly being called upon to quantify their knowledge, particularly in situations where data is not yet available or of limited relevance. In many cases this involves asking experts to estimate probabilities. For example experts, in ecology or related fields, might be called upon to estimate probabilities of incidence or abundance of species, and how they relate to environmental factors. Although many ecologists undergo some training in statistics at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, this does not necessarily focus on interpretations of probabilities. More accurate elicitation can be obtained by training experts prior to elicitation, and if necessary tailoring elicitation to address the expert’s strengths and weaknesses. Here we address the first step of diagnosing conceptual understanding of probabilities. We refer to the psychological literature which identifies several common biases or fallacies that arise during elicitation. These form the basis for developing a diagnostic questionnaire, as a tool for supporting accurate elicitation, particularly when several experts or elicitors are involved. We report on a qualitative assessment of results from a pilot of this questionnaire. These results raise several implications for training experts, not only prior to elicitation, but more strategically by targeting them whilst still undergraduate or postgraduate students.

Use of parametric modelling and climate-based metrics for the efficient design of daylight strategies in buildings with complex geometries

The purpose of this research is to assess daylight performance of buildings with climatic responsive envelopes with complex geometry that integrates shading devices in the façade. To this end two case studies are chosen due to their complex geometries and integrated daylight devices. The effect of different parameters of the daylight devices is analysed through Climate base daylight metrics.

Estimating the prevalence of unregistered driving in Queensland. Report to Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads

A state-wide observational study was undertaken by the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) in order to investigate the prevalence of unregistered vehicles on Queensland roads. This study was conducted on behalf of the Queensland department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR). This study builds upon research commissioned by Queensland Transport and conducted in 2000, 2003 and 2005. Vehicles were observed throughout Queensland from April 13th, 2010 to May 8th, 2010 in a mix of small rural towns, regional centres and metropolitan locations. The locations sampled for this study were restricted to destinations (e.g. shopping centres, hospitals, airports and park-and-ride facilities) rather than residential areas, and a variety of different destinations were sampled. Sampling vehicles in these types of locations provides a higher probability that the vehicles captured in the survey are being driven on a regular basis (Younglove, et al. 2004).

Vibrational spectroscopic characterization of the arsenate mineral barahonaite: Implications for the molecular structure

The mineral barahonaite is in all probability a member of the smolianinovite group. The mineral is an arsenate mineral formed as a secondary mineral in the oxidized zone of sulphide deposits. We have studied the barahonaite mineral using a combination of Raman and infrared spectroscopy. The mineral is characterized by a series of Raman bands at 863 cm−1 with low wavenumber shoulders at 802 and 828 cm−1. These bands are assigned to the arsenate and hydrogen arsenate stretching vibrations. The infrared spectrum shows a broad spectral profile. Two Raman bands at 506 and 529 cm−1 are assigned to the triply degenerate arsenate bending vibration (F 2, ν4), and the Raman bands at 325, 360, and 399 cm−1 are attributed to the arsenate ν2 bending vibration. Raman and infrared bands in the 2500–3800 cm−1 spectral range are assigned to water and hydroxyl stretching vibrations. The application of Raman spectroscopy to study the structure of barahonaite is better than infrared spectroscopy, probably because of the much higher spatial resolution.

A comparative study of prognostic model for bearing failure

An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.

Characteristics of a sample of first time drink driving offenders in Queensland - a qualitative analysis

Drink driving incidents in the Australian community continue to be a major road safety problem resulting in a third of all fatalities. Drink driving prevalence remains high; with the rate of Australians who self report drink driving remaining at 11%-12.1% [1,2]. The focus of research in the area to date has been with recidivist offenders who have a higher probability of reoffending, while there is comparatively limited research regarding first time offenders. An important and understudied area relates to the characteristics of first offenders and predictors of recidivism. This study examined the findings of in-depth focussed interviews with a sample of 20 individual first time drink driving offenders in Queensland recruited at the time of court mention.

Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Public and private mitigation for natural disasters in Japan

An increasing number of studies analyze the relationship between natural disaster damage and income levels, but they do not consider the distinction between public and private disaster mitigation. This paper empirically distinguishes these two types of mitigation using Japanese prefectural panel data from 1975 to 2007. Our results show that public mitigation rather than private mitigation has contributed to mitigating the total damage resulting from natural disasters. Our estimation of cost-benefit ratios for each prefecture confirms that the mitigation efforts of urban prefectures are less effective than those of rural prefectures in focusing on both large and frequent/small disasters. Hence, urban prefectures need to reassess their public mitigation measures. Furthermore, to lessen the damage resulting from extreme catastrophes, policy makers are required to invest in improved mitigation infrastructures when faced with a high probability of disasters.

Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

A probabilistic framework for analysing the compositionality of conceptual combinations

Conceptual combination performs a fundamental role in creating the broad range of compound phrases utilised in everyday language. While the systematicity and productivity of language provide a strong argument in favour of assuming compositionality, this very assumption is still regularly questioned in both cognitive science and philosophy. This article provides a novel probabilistic framework for assessing whether the semantics of conceptual combinations are compositional, and so can be considered as a function of the semantics of the constituent concepts, or not. Rather than adjudicating between different grades of compositionality, the framework presented here contributes formal methods for determining a clear dividing line between compositional and non-compositional semantics. Compositionality is equated with a joint probability distribution modelling how the constituent concepts in the combination are interpreted. Marginal selectivity is emphasised as a pivotal probabilistic constraint for the application of the Bell/CH and CHSH systems of inequalities (referred to collectively as Bell-type). Non-compositionality is then equated with either a failure of marginal selectivity, or, in the presence of marginal selectivity, with a violation of Bell-type inequalities. In both non-compositional scenarios, the conceptual combination cannot be modelled using a joint probability distribution with variables corresponding to the interpretation of the individual concepts. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to an empirical scenario of twenty-four non-lexicalised conceptual combinations.

Quantum cognition: A new theoretical approach to psychology

What type of probability theory best describes the way humans make judgments under uncertainty and decisions under conflict? Although rational models of cognition have become prominent and have achieved much success, they adhere to the laws of classical probability theory despite the fact that human reasoning does not always conform to these laws. For this reason we have seen the recent emergence of models based on an alternative probabilistic framework drawn from quantum theory. These quantum models show promise in addressing cognitive phenomena that have proven recalcitrant to modeling by means of classical probability theory. This review compares and contrasts probabilistic models based on Bayesian or classical versus quantum principles, and highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.

Adolescent self-reported physical activity and autonomy: A case for constrained and structured environments?

The provision of autonomy supportive environments that promote physical activity engagement have become popular in contemporary youth settings. However, questions remain about whether adolescent perceptions of their autonomy have implications for physical activity. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the association between adolescents’ self-reported physical activity and their perceived autonomy. Participants (n = 384 adolescents) aged between 12 and 15 years were recruited from six secondary schools in metropolitan Brisbane, Australia. Self-reported measures of physical activity and autonomy were obtained. Logistic regression with inverse probability weights were used to examine the association between autonomy and the odds of meeting youth physical activity guidelines. Autonomy (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.49-0.76) and gender (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.46-0.83) were negatively associated with meeting physical activity guidelines. However, the model explained only a small amount of the variation in whether youth in this sample met physical activity guidelines (R2 = 0.023). For every 1 unit decrease in autonomy (on an index from 1 to 5), participants were 1.64 times more likely to meet physical activity guidelines. The findings, which are at odds with several previous studies, suggest that interventions designed to facilitate youth physical activity should limit opportunities for youth to make independent decisions about their engagement. However, the small amount of variation explained by the predictors in the model is a caveat, and should be considered prior to applying such suggestions in practical settings. Future research should continue to examine a larger age range, longitudinal observational or intervention studies to examine assertions of causality, as well as objective measurement of physical activity.

Information-theoretic analysis of brain white matter fiber orientation distribution functions

We propose a new information-theoretic metric, the symmetric Kullback-Leibler divergence (sKL-divergence), to measure the difference between two water diffusivity profiles in high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI). Water diffusivity profiles are modeled as probability density functions on the unit sphere, and the sKL-divergence is computed from a spherical harmonic series, which greatly reduces computational complexity. Adjustment of the orientation of diffusivity functions is essential when the image is being warped, so we propose a fast algorithm to determine the principal direction of diffusivity functions using principal component analysis (PCA). We compare sKL-divergence with other inner-product based cost functions using synthetic samples and real HARDI data, and show that the sKL-divergence is highly sensitive in detecting small differences between two diffusivity profiles and therefore shows promise for applications in the nonlinear registration and multisubject statistical analysis of HARDI data.

Fluid registration of diffusion tensor images using information theory

We apply an information-theoretic cost metric, the symmetrized Kullback-Leibler (sKL) divergence, or $J$-divergence, to fluid registration of diffusion tensor images. The difference between diffusion tensors is quantified based on the sKL-divergence of their associated probability density functions (PDFs). Three-dimensional DTI data from 34 subjects were fluidly registered to an optimized target image. To allow large image deformations but preserve image topology, we regularized the flow with a large-deformation diffeomorphic mapping based on the kinematics of a Navier-Stokes fluid. A driving force was developed to minimize the $J$-divergence between the deforming source and target diffusion functions, while reorienting the flowing tensors to preserve fiber topography. In initial experiments, we showed that the sKL-divergence based on full diffusion PDFs is adaptable to higher-order diffusion models, such as high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI). The sKL-divergence was sensitive to subtle differences between two diffusivity profiles, showing promise for nonlinear registration applications and multisubject statistical analysis of HARDI data.