Brief report:effects of sensory sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty on anxiety in mothers of children with autism spectrum disorder

This study examined the relations between anxiety and individual characteristics of sensory sensitivity (SS) and intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in mothers of children with ASD. The mothers of 50 children completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale and the IU Scale. Anxiety was associated with both SS and IU and IU was also associated with SS. Mediation analyses showed direct effects between anxiety and both IU and SS but a significant indirect effect was found only in the model in which IU mediated between SS. This is the first study to characterize the nature of the IU and SS interrelation in predicting levels of anxiety.

Uncertainty evaluation of an axi-symmetric measurement machine

This paper describes a method of uncertainty evaluation for axi-symmetric measurement machines which is compliant with GUM and PUMA methodologies. Specialized measuring machines for the inspection of axisymmetric components enable the measurement of properties such as roundness (radial runout), axial runout and coning. These machines typically consist of a rotary table and a number of contact measurement probes located on slideways. Sources of uncertainty include the probe calibration process, probe repeatability, probe alignment, geometric errors in the rotary table, the dimensional stability of the structure holding the probes and form errors in the reference hemisphere which is used to calibrate the system. The generic method is described and an evaluation of an industrial machine is described as a worked example. Type A uncertainties were obtained from a repeatability study of the probe calibration process, a repeatability study of the actual measurement process, a system stability test and an elastic deformation test. Type B uncertainties were obtained from calibration certificates and estimates. Expanded uncertainties, at 95% confidence, were then calculated for the measurement of; radial runout (1.2 µm with a plunger probe or 1.7 µm with a lever probe); axial runout (1.2 µm with a plunger probe or 1.5 µm with a lever probe); and coning/swash (0.44 arc seconds with a plunger probe or 0.60 arc seconds with a lever probe).

A hybrid measurement systems analysis and uncertainty of measurement approach for industrial measurement in the light controlled factory

The uncertainty of measurements must be quantified and considered in order to prove conformance with specifications and make other meaningful comparisons based on measurements. While there is a consistent methodology for the evaluation and expression of uncertainty within the metrology community industry frequently uses the alternative Measurement Systems Analysis methodology. This paper sets out to clarify the differences between uncertainty evaluation and MSA and presents a novel hybrid methodology for industrial measurement which enables a correct evaluation of measurement uncertainty while utilising the practical tools of MSA. In particular the use of Gage R&R ANOVA and Attribute Gage studies within a wider uncertainty evaluation framework is described. This enables in-line measurement data to be used to establish repeatability and reproducibility, without time consuming repeatability studies being carried out, while maintaining a complete consideration of all sources of uncertainty and therefore enabling conformance to be proven with a stated level of confidence. Such a rigorous approach to product verification will become increasingly important in the era of the Light Controlled Factory with metrology acting as the driving force to achieve the right first time and highly automated manufacture of high value large scale products such as aircraft, spacecraft and renewable power generation structures.

The application of uncertainty evaluating software for the utilisation of machine tool systems for final inspection

As machine tools continue to become increasingly repeatable and accurate, high-precision manufacturers may be tempted to consider how they might utilise machine tools as measurement systems. In this paper, we have explored this paradigm by attempting to repurpose state-of-the-art coordinate measuring machine Uncertainty Evaluating Software (UES) for a machine tool application. We performed live measurements on all the systems in question. Our findings have highlighted some gaps with UES when applied to machine tools, and we have attempted to identify the sources of variation which have led to discrepancies. Implications of this research include requirements to evolve the algorithms within the UES if it is to be adapted for on-machine measurement, improve the robustness of the input parameters, and most importantly, clarify expectations.

Quantifying uncertainty in citizen weather data

The sheer volume of citizen weather data collected and uploaded to online data hubs is immense. However as with any citizen data it is difficult to assess the accuracy of the measurements. Within this project we quantify just how much data is available, where it comes from, the frequency at which it is collected, and the types of automatic weather stations being used. We also list the numerous possible sources of error and uncertainty within citizen weather observations before showing evidence of such effects in real data. A thorough intercomparison field study was conducted, testing popular models of citizen weather stations. From this study we were able to parameterise key sources of bias. Most significantly the project develops a complete quality control system through which citizen air temperature observations can be passed. The structure of this system was heavily informed by the results of the field study. Using a Bayesian framework the system learns and updates its estimates of the calibration and radiation-induced biases inherent to each station. We then show the benefit of correcting for these learnt biases over using the original uncorrected data. The system also attaches an uncertainty estimate to each observation, which would provide real world applications that choose to incorporate such observations with a measure on which they may base their confidence in the data. The system relies on interpolated temperature and radiation observations from neighbouring professional weather stations for which a Bayesian regression model is used. We recognise some of the assumptions and flaws of the developed system and suggest further work that needs to be done to bring it to an operational setting. Such a system will hopefully allow applications to leverage the additional value citizen weather data brings to longstanding professional observing networks.

The uncertainty of identity toolset:analysing digital traces for user profiling

People manage a spectrum of identities in cyber domains. Profiling individuals and assigning them to distinct groups or classes have potential applications in targeted services, online fraud detection, extensive social sorting, and cyber-security. This paper presents the Uncertainty of Identity Toolset, a framework for the identification and profiling of users from their social media accounts and e-mail addresses. More specifically, in this paper we discuss the design and implementation of two tools of the framework. The Twitter Geographic Profiler tool builds a map of the ethno-cultural communities of a person's friends on Twitter social media service. The E-mail Address Profiler tool identifies the probable identities of individuals from their e-mail addresses and maps their geographical distribution across the UK. To this end, this paper presents a framework for profiling the digital traces of individuals.

Estimation of uncertainty in three-dimensional coordinate measurement by comparison with calibrated points

This paper details a method of estimating the uncertainty of dimensional measurement for a three-dimensional coordinate measurement machine. An experimental procedure was developed to compare three-dimensional coordinate measurements with calibrated reference points. The reference standard used to calibrate these reference points was a fringe counting interferometer with a multilateration-like technique employed to establish three-dimensional coordinates. This is an extension of the established technique of comparing measured lengths with calibrated lengths. Specifically a distributed coordinate measurement device was tested which consisted of a network of Rotary-Laser Automatic Theodolites (R-LATs), this system is known commercially as indoor GPS (iGPS). The method was found to be practical and was used to estimate that the uncertainty of measurement for the basic iGPS system is approximately 1 mm at a 95% confidence level throughout a measurement volume of approximately 10 m × 10 m × 1.5 m. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Study of the uncertainty of angle measurement for a rotary-laser automatic theodolite (R-LAT)

This paper shows how the angular uncertainties can be determined for a rotary-laser automatic theodolite of the type used in (indoor-GPS) iGPS networks. Initially, the fundamental physics of the rotating head device is used to propagate uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulation. This theoretical element of the study shows how the angular uncertainty is affected by internal parameters, the actual values of which are estimated. Experiments are then carried out to determine the actual uncertainty in the azimuth angle. Results are presented that show that uncertainty decreases with sampling duration. Other significant findings are that uncertainty is relatively constant throughout the working volume and that the uncertainty value is not dependent on the size of the reference angle. © 2009 IMechE.

Nonparametric versus Parametric Statistical Approaches for Genetic Anticipation: The Pancreatic Cancer Case

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: 62N01, 62N05, 62P10, 92D10, 92D30.

The impact of parametric noise amplification on long haul transmission throughput

Advanced signal processing, such as multi-channel digital back propagation and mid span optical phase conjugation, can compensate for inter channel nonlinear effects in point to point links. However, once such are effects are compensated, the interaction between the signal and noise fields becomes dominant. We will show that this interaction has a direct impact on the signal to noise ratio improvement, observing that ideal optical phase conjugation offers 1.5 dB more performance benefit than DSP based compensation.

Parametric Estimation in Branching Processes with an Increasing Random Number of Ancestors

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 62M05

A Simple Example of Localized Parametric Resonance for the Wave Equation

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 35L05, 35P25, 47A40.

An empirical study on uncertainty identification in social media context

Uncertainty text detection is important to many social-media-based applications since more and more users utilize social media platforms (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, etc.) as information source to produce or derive interpretations based on them. However, existing uncertainty cues are ineffective in social media context because of its specific characteristics. In this paper, we propose a variant of annotation scheme for uncertainty identification and construct the first uncertainty corpus based on tweets. We then conduct experiments on the generated tweets corpus to study the effectiveness of different types of features for uncertainty text identification. © 2013 Association for Computational Linguistics.

Inequalities and Asymptotic Formulae for the Three Parametric Mittag-Leffler Functions

MSC 2010: 33E12, 30A10, 30D15, 30E15

Parametric pattern selection in a reaction-diffusion model

We compare spot patterns generated by Turing mechanisms with those generated by replication cascades, in a model one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system. We determine the stability region of spot solutions in parameter space as a function of a natural control parameter (feed-rate) where degenerate patterns with different numbers of spots coexist for a fixed feed-rate. While it is possible to generate identical patterns via both mechanisms, we show that replication cascades lead to a wider choice of pattern profiles that can be selected through a tuning of the feed-rate, exploiting hysteresis and directionality effects of the different pattern pathways.