Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

A Small Baseline DIFSAR Approach for Investigating Deformations on Full Resolution SAR Interferograms

This paper presents a differential synthetic apertureradar (SAR) interferometry (DIFSAR) approach for investigatingdeformation phenomena on full-resolution DIFSAR interferograms.In particular, our algorithm extends the capabilityof the small-baseline subset (SBAS) technique that relies onsmall-baseline DIFSAR interferograms only and is mainly focusedon investigating large-scale deformations with spatial resolutionsof about 100 100 m. The proposed technique is implemented byusing two different sets of data generated at low (multilook data)and full (single-look data) spatial resolution, respectively. Theformer is used to identify and estimate, via the conventional SBAStechnique, large spatial scale deformation patterns, topographicerrors in the available digital elevation model, and possibleatmospheric phase artifacts; the latter allows us to detect, onthe full-resolution residual phase components, structures highlycoherent over time (buildings, rocks, lava, structures, etc.), as wellas their height and displacements. In particular, the estimation ofthe temporal evolution of these local deformations is easily implementedby applying the singular value decomposition technique.The proposed algorithm has been tested with data acquired by theEuropean Remote Sensing satellites relative to the Campania area(Italy) and validated by using geodetic measurements.

Integration of genome-wide association studies with biological knowledge identifies six novel genes related to kidney function.

In conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS), analytical approaches leveraging biological information may further understanding of the pathophysiology of clinical traits. To discover novel associations with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a measure of kidney function, we developed a strategy for integrating prior biological knowledge into the existing GWAS data for eGFR from the CKDGen Consortium. Our strategy focuses on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) in genes that are connected by functional evidence, determined by literature mining and gene ontology (GO) hierarchies, to genes near previously validated eGFR associations. It then requires association thresholds consistent with multiple testing, and finally evaluates novel candidates by independent replication. Among the samples of European ancestry, we identified a genome-wide significant SNP in FBXL20 (P = 5.6 × 10(-9)) in meta-analysis of all available data, and additional SNPs at the INHBC, LRP2, PLEKHA1, SLC3A2 and SLC7A6 genes meeting multiple-testing corrected significance for replication and overall P-values of 4.5 × 10(-4)-2.2 × 10(-7). Neither the novel PLEKHA1 nor FBXL20 associations, both further supported by association with eGFR among African Americans and with transcript abundance, would have been implicated by eGFR candidate gene approaches. LRP2, encoding the megalin receptor, was identified through connection with the previously known eGFR gene DAB2 and extends understanding of the megalin system in kidney function. These findings highlight integration of existing genome-wide association data with independent biological knowledge to uncover novel candidate eGFR associations, including candidates lacking known connections to kidney-specific pathways. The strategy may also be applicable to other clinical phenotypes, although more testing will be needed to assess its potential for discovery in general.

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

Inferring transport characteristics in a fractured rock aquifer by combining single-hole ground-penetrating radar reflection monitoring and tracer test data

Investigations of solute transport in fractured rock aquifers often rely on tracer test data acquired at a limited number of observation points. Such data do not, by themselves, allow detailed assessments of the spreading of the injected tracer plume. To better understand the transport behavior in a granitic aquifer, we combine tracer test data with single-hole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection monitoring data. Five successful tracer tests were performed under various experimental conditions between two boreholes 6 m apart. For each experiment, saline tracer was injected into a previously identified packed-off transmissive fracture while repeatedly acquiring single-hole GPR reflection profiles together with electrical conductivity logs in the pumping borehole. By analyzing depth-migrated GPR difference images together with tracer breakthrough curves and associated simplified flow and transport modeling, we estimate (1) the number, the connectivity, and the geometry of fractures that contribute to tracer transport, (2) the velocity and the mass of tracer that was carried along each flow path, and (3) the effective transport parameters of the identified flow paths. We find a qualitative agreement when comparing the time evolution of GPR reflectivity strengths at strategic locations in the formation with those arising from simulated transport. The discrepancies are on the same order as those between observed and simulated breakthrough curves at the outflow locations. The rather subtle and repeatable GPR signals provide useful and complementary information to tracer test data acquired at the outflow locations and may help us to characterize transport phenomena in fractured rock aquifers.

Regulation of GABA(A) and glutamate receptor expression, synaptic facilitation and long-term potentiation in the hippocampus of prion mutant mice

Background: Prionopathies are characterized by spongiform brain degeneration, myoclonia, dementia, and periodic electroencephalographic (EEG) disturbances. The hallmark of prioniopathies is the presence of an abnormal conformational isoform (PrP(sc)) of the natural cellular prion protein (PrP(c)) encoded by the Prnp gene. Although several roles have been attributed to PrP(c), its putative functions in neuronal excitability are unknown. Although early studies of the behavior of Prnp knockout mice described minor changes, later studies report altered behavior. To date, most functional PrP(c) studies on synaptic plasticity have been performed in vitro. To our knowledge, only one electrophysiological study has been performed in vivo in anesthetized mice, by Curtis and coworkers. They reported no significant differences in paired-pulse facilitation or LTP in the CA1 region after Schaffer collateral/commissural pathway stimulation. Principal Findings: Here we explore the role of PrP(c) expression in neurotransmission and neural excitability using wild-type, Prnp -/- and PrP(c)-overexpressing mice (Tg20 strain). By correlating histopathology with electrophysiology in living behaving mice, we demonstrate that both Prnp -/- mice but, more relevantly Tg20 mice show increased susceptibility to KA, leading to significant cell death in the hippocampus. This finding correlates with enhanced synaptic facilitation in paired-pulse experiments and hippocampal LTP in living behaving mutant mice. Gene expression profiling using Illumina microarrays and Ingenuity pathways analysis showed that 129 genes involved in canonical pathways such as Ubiquitination or Neurotransmission were co-regulated in Prnp -/- and Tg20 mice. Lastly, RT-qPCR of neurotransmission-related genes indicated that subunits of GABA(A) and AMPA-kainate receptors are co-regulated in both Prnp -/- and Tg20 mice. Conclusions/Significance: Present results demonstrate that PrP(c) is necessary for the proper homeostatic functioning of hippocampal circuits, because of its relationships with GABA(A) and AMPA-Kainate neurotransmission. New PrP(c) functions have recently been described, which point to PrP(c) as a target for putative therapies in Alzheimer's disease. However, our results indicate that a "gain of function" strategy in Alzheimer's disease, or a "loss of function" in prionopathies, may impair PrP(c) function, with devastating effects. In conclusion, we believe that present data should be taken into account in the development of future therapies.

Localization and characterization of an active fault in an urbanized area in central Guatemala by means of geoelectrical imaging

The Polochic and Motagua faults define the active plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates in central Guatemala. A splay of the Polochic Fault traverses the rapidly growing city of San Miguel Uspantan that is periodically affected by destructive earthquakes. This fault splay was located using a 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey that also characterized the fault damage zone and evaluated the thickness and nature of recent deposits upon which most of the city is built. ERT images show the fault as a similar to 50 m wide, near-vertical low-resistivity anomaly, bounded within a few meters by high resistivity anomalies. Forward modeling reproduces the key aspects of the observed electrical resistivity data with remarkable fidelity thus defining the overall location, geometry, and internal structure of the fault zone as well as the affected lithologies. Our results indicate that the city is constructed on a similar to 20 m thick surficial layer consisting of poorly consolidated, highly porous, water-logged pumice. This soft layer is likely to amplify seismic waves and to liquefy upon moderate to strong ground shaking. The electrical conductivity as well as the major element chemistry of the groundwater provides evidence to suggest that the local aquifer might, at least in part, be fed by water rising along the fault. Therefore, the potential threat posed by this fault splay may not be limited to its seismic activity per se, but could be compounded its potential propensity to enhance seismic site effects by injecting water into the soft surficial sediments. The results of this study provide the basis for a rigorous analysis of seismic hazard and sustainable development of San Miguel Uspantan and illustrate the potential of ERT surveying for paleoseismic studies.

Re-thinking cell cycle regulators: the cross-talk with metabolism.

Analysis of genetically engineered mice deficient in cell cycle regulators, including E2F1, cdk4, and pRB, showed that the major phenotypes are metabolic perturbations. These key cell cycle regulators contribute to lipid synthesis, glucose production, insulin secretion, and glycolytic metabolism. It has been shown that deregulation of these pathways can lead to metabolic perturbations and related metabolic diseases, such as obesity and type II diabetes. The cyclin-cdk-Rb-E2F1 pathway regulates adipogenesis in addition to its well-described roles in cell cycle regulation and cancer. It was also shown that E2F1 directly participates in the regulation of pancreatic growth and function. Similarly, cyclin D3, cdk4, and cdk9 are also adipogenic factors with strong effects on whole organism metabolism. These examples support the emerging notion that cell cycle regulatory proteins also modulate metabolic processes. These cell cycle regulators are activated by insulin and glucose, even in non-proliferating cells. Most importantly, these cell cycle regulators trigger the adaptive metabolic switch that normal and cancer cells require in order to proliferate. These changes include increased lipid synthesis, decreased oxidative metabolism, and increased glycolytic metabolism. In summary, these factors are essential regulators of anabolic biosynthetic processes, blocking at the same time oxidative and catabolic pathways, which is reminiscent of cancer cell metabolism.

Management of nanomaterials safety in research environment

Despite numerous discussions, workshops, reviews and reports about responsible development of nanotechnology, information describing health and environmental risk of engineered nanoparticles or nanomaterials is severely lacking and thus insufficient for completing rigorous risk assessment on their use. However, since preliminary scientific evaluations indicate that there are reasonable suspicions that activities involving nanomaterials might have damaging effects on human health; the precautionary principle must be applied. Public and private institutions as well as industries have the duty to adopt preventive and protective measures proportionate to the risk intensity and the desired level of protection. In this work, we present a practical, 'user-friendly' procedure for a university-wide safety and health management of nanomaterials, developed as a multi-stakeholder effort (government, accident insurance, researchers and experts for occupational safety and health). The process starts using a schematic decision tree that allows classifying the nano laboratory into three hazard classes similar to a control banding approach (from Nano 3 - highest hazard to Nano1 - lowest hazard). Classifying laboratories into risk classes would require considering actual or potential exposure to the nanomaterial as well as statistical data on health effects of exposure. Due to the fact that these data (as well as exposure limits for each individual material) are not available, risk classes could not be determined. For each hazard level we then provide a list of required risk mitigation measures (technical, organizational and personal). The target 'users' of this safety and health methodology are researchers and safety officers. They can rapidly access the precautionary hazard class of their activities and the corresponding adequate safety and health measures. We succeed in convincing scientist dealing with nano-activities that adequate safety measures and management are promoting innovation and discoveries by ensuring them a safe environment even in the case of very novel products. The proposed measures are not considered as constraints but as a support to their research. This methodology is being implemented at the Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne in over 100 research labs dealing with nanomaterials. It is our opinion that it would be useful to other research and academia institutions as well. [Authors]

Prediction of difficult intubation with advanced face recognition techniques: a preliminary study

Introduction: Difficult tracheal intubation remains a constant and significant source of morbidity and mortality in anaesthetic practice. Insufficient airway assessment in the preoperative period continues to be a major cause of unanticipated difficult intubation. Although many risk factors have already been identified, preoperative airway evaluation is not always regarded as a standard procedure and the respective weight of each risk factor remains unclear. Moreover the predictive scores available are not sensitive, moderately specific and often operator-dependant. In order to improve the preoperative detection of patients at risk for difficult intubation, we developed a system for automated and objective evaluation of morphologic criteria of the face and neck using video recordings and advanced techniques borrowed from face recognition. Method and results: Frontal video sequences were recorded in 5 healthy volunteers. During the video recording, subjects were requested to perform maximal flexion-extension of the neck and to open wide the mouth with tongue pulled out. A robust and real-time face tracking system was then applied, allowing to automatically identify and map a grid of 55 control points on the face, which were tracked during head motion. These points located important features of the face, such as the eyebrows, the nose, the contours of the eyes and mouth, and the external contours, including the chin. Moreover, based on this face tracking, the orientation of the head could also be estimated at each frame of the video sequence. Thus, we could infer for each frame the pitch angle of the head pose (related to the vertical rotation of the head) and obtain the degree of head extension. Morphological criteria used in the most frequent cited predictive scores were also extracted, such as mouth opening, degree of visibility of the uvula or thyreo-mental distance. Discussion and conclusion: Preliminary results suggest the high feasibility of the technique. The next step will be the application of the same automated and objective evaluation to patients who will undergo tracheal intubation. The difficulties related to intubation will be then correlated to the biometric characteristics of the patients. The objective in mind is to analyze the biometrics data with artificial intelligence algorithms to build a highly sensitive and specific predictive test.

Risperidone versus clozapine in treatment-resistant chronic schizophrenia: a randomized double-blind study. The Risperidone Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the short-term efficacy and safety of risperidone and clozapine in treatment-resistant chronic schizophrenic patients. METHOD: In a controlled double-blind, multicenter study, 86 inpatients with chronic schizophrenia (DSM-III-R), who were resistant to or intolerant of conventional neuroleptics, were randomly assigned to receive risperidone or clozapine for 8 weeks after a 7-day washout period. After a 1-week dose-titration phase, doses were fixed at 6 mg/day of risperidone and 300 mg/day of clozapine for 1 week and then adjusted according to each patient's response. The final mean doses were 6.4 mg/day of risperidone and 291.2 mg/day of clozapine. Treatment efficacy and safety were evaluated with several well-known rating scales. RESULTS: Both risperidone and clozapine significantly reduced the severity of psychotic symptoms (scores on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale and the Clinical Global Impression scale) from baseline, with no significant between-group differences. At endpoint, 67% of the risperidone group and 65% of the clozapine group were clinically improved (reduction of 20% or more in total Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale score). Risperidone appeared to have a faster onset of action. In both groups extrapyramidal symptoms and other adverse events were few, and their severity was generally mild. Neither group showed evidence of a relation between drug plasma concentrations and clinical effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Risperidone was well tolerated and as effective as medium doses of clozapine in patients with chronic schizophrenia who had been resistant to or intolerant of conventional neuroleptics.

El desempleo español : factores estructurales

El paro es uno de los problemas más importantes de la economía española y del resto de economías europeas. Un posible análisis, ampliamente extendido en la literatura reciente, considera el desajuste existente entre la oferta y la demanda de trabajo como posible causante de esta situación. En este sentido, la relación empírica entre la tasa de paro y la tasa de vacantes, la denominada curva UV o de Beveridge, ofrece un instrumento para caracterizar el paro d'una economía determinada. Diferentes estudios, como por ejemplo, Jackman et. al. (1983) o Pissarides (1985) entre otros, consideran que los desplazamientos de la curva de Beveridge pueden interpretarse como variaciones del paro estructural. La identificación de estos desplazamientos puede dar información relevante para diseñar políticas económicas adecuadas. El principal objetivo de este trabajo es el de identificar los desplazamientos de la curva de Beveridge para la economía española durante el período 1978-96 utilizando datos anuales de la Encuesta de Población Activa (INE) y de Estadística de Empleo (INEM). Dado que ambas fuentes facilitan la información desagregada territorialmente, se puede construir un panel de datos regionales que permite analizar un amplio conjunto de factores que pueden explicar el desplazamiento de la curva, un posible cambio en la elasticidad de la tasa de paro respeto a la tasa de vacantes, así como también valorar la existencia de diferentes comportamientos regionales en el proceso de emparejamiento de trabajos con trabajadores

Measurement and simulation of anisotropy in the Infrared and Raman spectra of beta-FeSi2 single crystals

In this paper we show that the orthorhombic phase of FeSi2 (stable at room temperature) displays a sizable anisotropy in the infrared spectra, with minor effects in the Raman data too. This fact is not trivial at all, since the crystal structure corresponds to a moderate distortion of the fluorite symmetry. Our analysis is carried out on small single crystals grown by flux transport, through polarization-resolved far-infrared reflectivity and Raman measurements. Their interpretation has been obtained by means of the simulated spectra with tight-binding molecular dynamics.

El desempleo español : factores estructurales

El paro es uno de los problemas más importantes de la economía española y del resto de economías europeas. Un posible análisis, ampliamente extendido en la literatura reciente, considera el desajuste existente entre la oferta y la demanda de trabajo como posible causante de esta situación. En este sentido, la relación empírica entre la tasa de paro y la tasa de vacantes, la denominada curva UV o de Beveridge, ofrece un instrumento para caracterizar el paro d'una economía determinada. Diferentes estudios, como por ejemplo, Jackman et. al. (1983) o Pissarides (1985) entre otros, consideran que los desplazamientos de la curva de Beveridge pueden interpretarse como variaciones del paro estructural. La identificación de estos desplazamientos puede dar información relevante para diseñar políticas económicas adecuadas. El principal objetivo de este trabajo es el de identificar los desplazamientos de la curva de Beveridge para la economía española durante el período 1978-96 utilizando datos anuales de la Encuesta de Población Activa (INE) y de Estadística de Empleo (INEM). Dado que ambas fuentes facilitan la información desagregada territorialmente, se puede construir un panel de datos regionales que permite analizar un amplio conjunto de factores que pueden explicar el desplazamiento de la curva, un posible cambio en la elasticidad de la tasa de paro respeto a la tasa de vacantes, así como también valorar la existencia de diferentes comportamientos regionales en el proceso de emparejamiento de trabajos con trabajadores

User cost of capital with delayed investment grants

The usual assumption when considering investment grants is that grant payments are automatic when investments are undertaken. However, evidence from case studies shows that there can exist some time lag until funds are received by granted firms. In this paper the effects of delays in grant payments on the optimal investment policy of the firm are analyzed. It is shown how these delays lead not only to a higher financing cost but to an effective reduction in the investment grant rate, and in some cases, how benefits from investment grants could be canceled due to interactions with tax effects.