Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10−8). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

The cause, distribution and economic importance of fruit speckle of banana in north Queensland

Banana Fruit Speckle.

Factors affecting the synthesis and distribution of beta-lactamase in Mycobacterium smegmatis SN2 cultures

A high level of extracellular beta-lactamase activity was detected in cultures ofMycobacterium smegmatis SN2. The extracellular distribution of the enzyme varied with growth conditions such as additional carbon source and pH of the medium. Addition of chloramphenicol tothe culture inhibited the increase in the extracellular beta-lactamase activity. Cell wall damage or autolysis may be responsible for the extracellular beta-lactamase activity.

Distribution of the angle of rotation plane random walks

We study the probability distribution of the angle by which the tangent to the trajectory rotates in the course of a plane random walk. It is shown that the determination of this distribution function can be reduced to an integral equation, which can be rigorously transformed into a differential equation of Hill's type. We derive the asymptotic distribution for very long walks.

Six novel susceptibility Loci for early-onset androgenetic alopecia and their unexpected association with common diseases

Androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is a highly heritable condition and the most common form of hair loss in humans. Susceptibility loci have been described on the X chromosome and chromosome 20, but these loci explain a minority of its heritable variance. We conducted a large-scale meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies for early-onset AGA in 12,806 individuals of European ancestry. While replicating the two AGA loci on the X chromosome and chromosome 20, six novel susceptibility loci reached genome-wide significance (p = 2.62x10(-)(9)-1.01x10(-)(1)(2)). Unexpectedly, we identified a risk allele at 17q21.31 that was recently associated with Parkinson's disease (PD) at a genome-wide significant level. We then tested the association between early-onset AGA and the risk of PD in a cross-sectional analysis of 568 PD cases and 7,664 controls. Early-onset AGA cases had significantly increased odds of subsequent PD (OR = 1.28, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.55, p = 8.9x10(-)(3)). Further, the AGA susceptibility alleles at the 17q21.31 locus are on the H1 haplotype, which is under negative selection in Europeans and has been linked to decreased fertility. Combining the risk alleles of six novel and two established susceptibility loci, we created a genotype risk score and tested its association with AGA in an additional sample. Individuals in the highest risk quartile of a genotype score had an approximately six-fold increased risk of early-onset AGA [odds ratio (OR) = 5.78, p = 1.4x10(-)(8)(8)]. Our results highlight unexpected associations between early-onset AGA, Parkinson's disease, and decreased fertility, providing important insights into the pathophysiology of these conditions.

Investigation of the distribution and incidence of Avocado sunblotch

Investigation of the distribution and incidence of Avocado sunblotch.

Konsumerismi, potilaiden ja kuluttajien aktiivinen toiminta sekä erityisesti lääkäreiden kokemukset ja näkemykset potilaista kuluttajina

Consumerism emphasises the patient s position and freedom of choice. Consumerism is being promoted by a range of phenomena occurring in society and health care. Different actors hold different views on the patient as a consumer and on his or her participation. Consumer demand is created outside the patient physician relationship and the commercialisation of services generates new expectations with respect to physician s work. More and more patients may be interested in adopting a more equal position in the care relationship, and trying to negotiate with the physician or to even dictate how he or she should be cared for. In Finland, very little research has been conducted on patients and consumers organising themselves at national system level, patients as choosers, and physicians attitudes to various consumerist phenomena or the choice made by the patient. In the empirical data for this study, the term consumer-patient refers to active consumers and patients making choices related to their clinical care prior to a physician s diagnosis. Consumer-patients are also represented by consumer and patient organisations and movements. The main research question is: How do physicians regard the care choice made by the patient? This question is addressed from a perspective encompassing patients and consumers organised activities and individuals active behaviour in health care as well as physicians experiences and their views on patients as consumers making choices related to their care. The first part (Study I), examines the patient organisation field, information sources used including the websites of such organisations, files from Finland s Slot Machine Association, RAY, a survey conducted by a Finnish television news department and interviews of patient organisations. Based on observation and a physician survey, Study II examines physicians attitudes to the idea that patients could obtain information through consumer movements about physicians care practices before seeking medical care. Studies III−IV use a physician survey to examine physicians attitudes to direct-to-consumer-advertising of prescription drugs (DTCA) and their experiences and views of patient requests related to treatments and examinations. Study V uses comparative surveys to examine the attitudes of health care professionals and the population to the introduction of new technologies in health care, using genetic screenings and tests as an example. The number of patient organisations increased, with a particular escalation as of the 1990s. The characteristics and operating methods of the organisations varied greatly. Physicians organisations adopted a negative or neutral attitude towards the consumer movements idea of distributing information on care practices, whereas individual physicians attitudes were slightly more positive. Physicians regarded direct-to-consumer-advertising of prescription drugs as negative, but took a more permissive attitude towards indirect advertising. More than every third physician considered drug advertisements in general to be harmful or useless in the distribution of drug information to patients or consumers. More than half of physicians conducting patient work reported that they (very) often encountered patients who stated upon arrival for a consultation that they wanted specific treatments or examinations, and that the number of such situations had increased. Such situations were viewed as positive with regard to the care relationship by every fifth physician and as negative by two fifths. Physicians justified a reserved attitude to the patients consumer role by referring to their medical expertise and position as care decision-makers, the patient physician relationship and the public health care system. Reasons for a positive attitude included the patient s participation and co-operation, the patient physician relationship and the patient s knowledge. Professionals were more reserved than lay people about the introduction and extension of genetic technologies in health care. A significant minority of the physicians did not take a clear pro or con attitude to the patients consumer role or to the use of new technologies in health care. The physicians age, gender, place of work and specialisation influenced their attitudes to the patient s consumer role, and private physicians viewed it in a more positive light than those working in public health care. Active consumer-patients challenge the society to hold a discussion of the patient s choice, participation in care decision-making and participation in health care policy in general. Their transformation into customers and consumers implies not only a new division of individuals roles and powers, but also contributes to changing relationships between system level roles: between citizens and the state and between public and private health care. This phenomenon raises various issues related to health care policy. In conclusion, topics are presented for discussion, practical measures and further research. Keywords: health care, consumerism, distribution of technologies, commercialisation, physicians, patients, consumers, patient s choice, patient s role.

Continuum percolation with discs having a distribution of radii

It is shown that for continuum percolation with overlapping discs having a distribution of radii, the net areal density of discs at percolation threshold depends non-trivially on the distribution, and is not bounded by any finite constant. Results of a Monte Carlo simulation supporting the argument are presented.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Ultrasound of paediatric appendicitis and its secondary sonographic signs: Providing a more meaningful finding

Sonography is an important clinical tool in diagnosing appendicitis in children as it can obviate both exposure to potentially harmful ionising radiation from computed tomography scans and the need for unnecessary appendicectomies. This review examines the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound in the identification of acute appendicitis, with a particular focus on the the utility of secondary sonographic signs as an adjunct or corollary to traditionally examined criteria. These secondary signs can be important in cases where the appendix cannot be identified with ultrasound and a more meaningful finding may be made by incorporating the presence or absence of secondary sonographic signs. There is evidence that integrating these secondary signs into the final ultrasound diagnosis can improve the utility of ultrasound in cases where appendicitis is expected, though there remains some conjecture about whether they play a more important role in negative or positive prediction in the absence of an identifiable appendix.

Brownian particles in stationary and moving traps: The mean and variance of the heat distribution function

A recent theoretical model developed by Imparato et al. Phys of the experimentally measured heat and work effects produced by the thermal fluctuations of single micron-sized polystyrene beads in stationary and moving optical traps has proved to be quite successful in rationalizing the observed experimental data. The model, based on the overdamped Brownian dynamics of a particle in a harmonic potential that moves at a constant speed under a time-dependent force, is used to obtain an approximate expression for the distribution of the heat dissipated by the particle at long times. In this paper, we generalize the above model to consider particle dynamics in the presence of colored noise, without passing to the overdamped limit, as a way of modeling experimental situations in which the fluctuations of the medium exhibit long-lived temporal correlations, of the kind characteristic of polymeric solutions, for instance, or of similar viscoelastic fluids. Although we have not been able to find an expression for the heat distribution itself, we do obtain exact expressions for its mean and variance, both for the static and for the moving trap cases. These moments are valid for arbitrary times and they also hold in the inertial regime, but they reduce exactly to the results of Imparato et al. in appropriate limits. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.011118 PACS.