Modeling of Effective Process of Network Maintaining Based on Statistical Data

This paper is dedicated to modelling of network maintaining based on live example – maintaining ATM banking network, where any problems are mean money loss. A full analysis is made in order to estimate valuable and not-valuable parameters based on complex analysis of available data. Correlation analysis helps to estimate provided data and to produce a complex solution of increasing network maintaining effectiveness.

Asymptotic Theory for Extended Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH Processes

The paper considers various extended asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility models, and derives appropriate regularity conditions and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and allows valid statistical inferences to be drawn based on empirical estimation. For this purpose, we use an underlying vector random coefficient autoregressive process, for which we show the equivalent representation for the asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility model, to derive asymptotic theory for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. As an extension, we develop a new multivariate asymmetric long memory volatility model, and discuss the associated asymptotic properties.

Madeira wine vinification process: analysis and control

The present study was done in collaboration with J. Faria e Filhos company, a Madeira wine producer, and its main goal was to fully characterize three wines produced during 2014 harvest and identify possible improving points in the winemaking process. The winemaking process was followed during 4 weeks, being registered the amounts of grapes received, the fermentation temperatures, the time at which fermentation was stopped and evolution of must densities until the fortification time. The characterization of musts and wines was done in terms of density, total and volatile acidity, alcohol content, pH, total of polyphenol, organic acids composition, sugars concentration and the volatile profile. Also, it was developed and validated an analytical methodology to quantify the volatile fatty acids, namely using SPME-GC-MS. Briefly, the following key features were obtained for the latter methodology: linearity (R2=0.999) e high sensitivity (LOD =0.026-0.068 mg/L), suitable precision (repeatability and reproducibility lower than 8,5%) and good recoveries (103,11-119,46%). The results reveal that fermentation temperatures should be controlled in a more strictly manner, in order to ensure a better balance in proportion of some volatile compounds, namely the esters and higher alcohols and to minimize the concentration of some volatiles, namely hexanoic, octanoic and decanoic acids, that when above their odours threshold are not positive for the wine aroma. Also, regarding the moment to stop the fermentation, it was verified that it can be introduced changes which can also be benefit to guarantee the tipicity of Madeira wine bouquet.

Madeira wine vinification process: analysis and control

The present study was done in collaboration with J. Faria e Filhos company, a Madeira wine producer, and its main goal was to fully characterize three wines produced during 2014 harvest and identify possible improving points in the winemaking process. The winemaking process was followed during 4 weeks, being registered the amounts of grapes received, the fermentation temperatures, the time at which fermentation was stopped and evolution of must densities until the fortification time. The characterization of musts and wines was done in terms of density, total and volatile acidity, alcohol content, pH, total of polyphenol, organic acids composition, sugars concentration and the volatile profile. Also, it was developed and validated an analytical methodology to quantify the volatile fatty acids, namely using SPME-GC-MS. Briefly, the following key features were obtained for the latter methodology: linearity (R2=0.999) e high sensitivity (LOD =0.026-0.068 mg/L), suitable precision (repeatability and reproducibility lower than 8,5%) and good recoveries (103,11-119,46%). The results reveal that fermentation temperatures should be controlled in a more strictly manner, in order to ensure a better balance in proportion of some volatile compounds, namely the esters and higher alcohols and to minimize the concentration of some volatiles, namely hexanoic, octanoic and decanoic acids, that when above their odours threshold are not positive for the wine aroma. Also, regarding the moment to stop the fermentation, it was verified that it can be introduced changes which can also be benefit to guarantee the tipicity of Madeira wine bouquet.

NIR-spectroscopy for bioprocess monitoring & control

The Ingold port adaption of a free beam NIR spectrometer is tailored for optimal bioprocess monitoring and control. The device shows an excellent signal to noise ratio dedicated to a large free aperture and therefore a large sample volume. This can be seen particularly in the batch trajectories which show a high reproducibility. The robust and compact design withstands rough process environments as well as SIP/CIP cycles. Robust free beam NIR process analyzers are indispensable tools within the PAT/QbD framework for realtime process monitoring and control. They enable multiparametric, non-invasive measurements of analyte concentrations and process trajectories. Free beam NIR spectrometers are an ideal tool to define golden batches and process borders in the sense of QbD. Moreover, sophisticated data analysis both quantitative and MSPC yields directly to a far better process understanding. Information can be provided online in easy to interpret graphs which allow the operator to make fast and knowledge-based decisions. This finally leads to higher stability in process operation, better performance and less failed batches.

Correlations among behavior, performance and environment in broiler breeders using multivariate analysis

Animal welfare issues have received much attention not only to supply farmed animal requirements, but also to ethical and cultural public concerns. Daily collected information, as well as the systematic follow-up of production stages, produces important statistical data for production assessment and control, as well as for improvement possibilities. In this scenario, this research study analyzed behavioral, production, and environmental data using Main Component Multivariable Analysis, which correlated observed behaviors, recorded using video cameras and electronic identification, with performance parameters of female broiler breeders. The aim was to start building a system to support decision-making in broiler breeder housing, based on bird behavioral parameters. Birds were housed in an environmental chamber, with three pens with different controlled environments. Bird sensitivity to environmental conditions were indicated by their behaviors, stressing the importance of behavioral observations for modern poultry management. A strong association between performance parameters and the behavior at the nest, suggesting that this behavior may be used to predict productivity. The behaviors of ruffling feathers, opening wings, preening, and at the drinker were negatively correlated with environmental temperature, suggesting that the increase of in the frequency of these behaviors indicate improvement of thermal welfare.

Development of a continuous process for α-thio-β-chloroacrylamide synthesis with enhanced control of a cascade transformation

A continuous process strategy has been developed for the preparation of α-thio-β chloroacrylamides, a class of highly versatile synthetic intermediates. Flow platforms to generate the α-chloroamide and α-thioamide precursors were successfully adopted, progressing from the previously employed batch chemistry, and in both instances afford a readily scalable methodology. The implementation of the key α-thio-β-chloroacrylamide casade as a continuous flow reaction on a multi-gram scale is described, while the tuneable nature of the cascade, facilitated by continuous processing, is highlighted by selective generation of established intermediates and byproducts.

Design and testing of innovative, artificial intelligence-based techniques to model and control the combustion process and to reduce the Co2 emissions in modern, high-performance, gasoline direct injection engines

This work deals with the development of calibration procedures and control systems to improve the performance and efficiency of modern spark ignition turbocharged engines. The algorithms developed are used to optimize and manage the spark advance and the air-to-fuel ratio to control the knock and the exhaust gas temperature at the turbine inlet. The described work falls within the activity that the research group started in the previous years with the industrial partner Ferrari S.p.a. . The first chapter deals with the development of a control-oriented engine simulator based on a neural network approach, with which the main combustion indexes can be simulated. The second chapter deals with the development of a procedure to calibrate offline the spark advance and the air-to-fuel ratio to run the engine under knock-limited conditions and with the maximum admissible exhaust gas temperature at the turbine inlet. This procedure is then converted into a model-based control system and validated with a Software in the Loop approach using the engine simulator developed in the first chapter. Finally, it is implemented in a rapid control prototyping hardware to manage the combustion in steady-state and transient operating conditions at the test bench. The third chapter deals with the study of an innovative and cheap sensor for the in-cylinder pressure measurement, which is a piezoelectric washer that can be installed between the spark plug and the engine head. The signal generated by this kind of sensor is studied, developing a specific algorithm to adjust the value of the knock index in real-time. Finally, with the engine simulator developed in the first chapter, it is demonstrated that the innovative sensor can be coupled with the control system described in the second chapter and that the performance obtained could be the same reachable with the standard in-cylinder pressure sensors.

Incidence Of Basilar Invagination In Patients With Tonsillar Herniation? A Case Control Craniometrical Study.

A retrospective case-control study based on craniometrical evaluation was performed to evaluate the incidence of basilar invagination (BI). Patients with symptomatic tonsillar herniation treated surgically had craniometrical parameters evaluated based on CT scan reconstructions before surgery. BI was diagnosed when the tip of the odontoid trespassed the Chamberlain's line in three different thresholds found in the literature: 2, 5 or 6.6 mm. In the surgical group (SU), the mean distance of the tip of the odontoid process above the Chamberlain's line was 12 mm versus 1.2 mm in the control (CO) group (p<0.0001). The number of patients with BI according to the threshold used (2, 5 or 6.6 mm) in the SU group was respectively 19 (95%), 16 (80%) and 15 (75%) and in the CO group it was 15 (37%), 4 (10%) and 2 (5%).

Volumetric Capnography For The Evaluation Of Chronic Airways Diseases.

Obstructive lung diseases of different etiologies present with progressive peripheral airway involvement. The peripheral airways, known as the silent lung zone, are not adequately evaluated with conventional function tests. The principle of gas washout has been used to detect pulmonary ventilation inhomogeneity and to estimate the location of the underlying disease process. Volumetric capnography (VC) analyzes the pattern of CO2 elimination as a function of expired volume. To measure normalized phase 3 slopes with VC in patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (NCB) and in bronchitic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in order to compare the slopes obtained for the groups. NCB and severe COPD were enrolled sequentially from an outpatient clinic (Hospital of the State University of Campinas). A control group was established for the NCB group, paired by sex and age. All subjects performed spirometry, VC, and the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT). Two comparisons were made: NCB group versus its control group, and NCB group versus COPD group. The project was approved by the ethical committee of the institution. Statistical tests used were Wilcoxon or Student's t-test; P<0.05 was considered to be a statistically significant difference. Concerning the NCB group (N=20) versus the control group (N=20), significant differences were found in body mass index and in several functional variables (spirometric, VC, 6MWT) with worse results observed in the NCB group. In the comparison between the COPD group (N=20) versus the NCB group, although patients with COPD had worse spirometric and 6MWT values, the capnographic variables mean phase 2 slope (Slp2), mean phase 3 slope normalized by the mean expiratory volume, or mean phase 3 slope normalized by the end-tidal CO2 concentration were similar. These findings may indicate that the gas elimination curves are not sensitive enough to monitor the severity of structural abnormalities. The role of normalized phase 3 slope may be worth exploring as a more sensitive index of small airway disease, even though it may not be equally sensitive in discriminating the severity of the alterations.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Polymorphisms Of Cell Cycle Control Genes Influence The Development Of Sporadic Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma.

The role of key cell cycle regulation genes such as, CDKN1B, CDKN2A, CDKN2B, and CDKN2C in sporadic medullary thyroid carcinoma (s-MTC) is still largely unknown. In order to evaluate the influence of inherited polymorphisms of these genes on the pathogenesis of s-MTC, we used TaqMan SNP genotyping to examine 45 s-MTC patients carefully matched with 98 controls. A multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that CDKN1B and CDKN2A genes were related to s-MTC susceptibility. The rs2066827*GT+GG CDKN1B genotype was more frequent in s-MTC patients (62.22%) than in controls (40.21%), increasing the susceptibility to s-MTC (OR=2.47; 95% CI=1.048-5.833; P=0.038). By contrast, the rs11515*CG+GG of CDKN2A gene was more frequent in the controls (32.65%) than in patients (15.56%), reducing the risk for s-MTC (OR=0.174; 95% CI=0.048-0.627; P=0.0075). A stepwise regression analysis indicated that two genotypes together could explain 11% of the total s-MTC risk. In addition, a relationship was found between disease progression and the presence of alterations in the CDKN1A (rs1801270), CDKN2C (rs12885), and CDKN2B (rs1063192) genes. WT rs1801270 CDKN1A patients presented extrathyroidal tumor extension more frequently (92%) than polymorphic CDKN1A rs1801270 patients (50%; P=0.0376). Patients with the WT CDKN2C gene (rs12885) presented larger tumors (2.9±1.8 cm) than polymorphic patients (1.5±0.7 cm; P=0.0324). On the other hand, patients with the polymorphic CDKN2B gene (rs1063192) presented distant metastases (36.3%; P=0.0261). In summary, we demonstrated that CDKN1B and CDKN2A genes are associated with susceptibility, whereas the inherited genetic profile of CDKN1A, CDKN2B, and CDKN2C is associated with aggressive features of tumors. This study suggests that profiling cell cycle genes may help define the risk and characterize s-MTC aggressiveness.