Polymer-solvent interaction parameters of SBS rubbers by inverse gas chromatography measurements

The solubility parameters of two SBS commercial rubbers with different structures (lineal and radial), and with slightly different styrene content have been determined by inverse gas chromatography technique. The Flory–Huggins interaction parameters of several polymer–solvent mixtures have also been calculated. The influence of the polymer composition, the solvent molecular weight and the temperature over these parameters have been discussed; besides, these parameters have been compared with previous ones, obtained by intrinsic viscosity measurements. From the Flory–Huggins interaction parameters, the infinite dilution activity coefficients of the solvents have been calculated and fitted to the well-known NRTL model. These NRTL binary interaction parameters have a great importance in modelling the separation steps in the process of obtaining the rubber.

Contribución al estudio de la incompatibilidad y otras medidas relacionadas en la lógica borrosa

Resumen La investigación descrita en esta memoria se enmarca en el campo de la lógica borro¬sa. Más concretamente, en el estudio de la incompatibilidad, de la compatibilidad y de la suplementaridad en los conjuntos borrosos y en los de Atanassov. En este orden de ideas, en el primer capítulo, se construyen, tanto de forma directa como indirecta, funciones apropiadas para medir la incompatibilidad entre dos conjuntos borro-sos. Se formulan algunos axiomas para modelizar la continuidad de dichas funciones, y se determina si las medidas propuestas, y otras nuevas que se introducen, verifican algún tipo de continuidad. Finalmente, se establece la noción de conjuntos borrosos compatibles, se introducen axiomas para medir esta propiedad y se construyen algunas medidas de compa¬tibilidad. El segundo capítulo se dedica al estudio de la incompatibilidad y de la compatibilidad en el campo de los conjuntos de Atanassov. Así, en primer lugar, se presenta una definición axiomática de medida de incompatibilidad en este contexto. Después, se construyen medidas de incompatibilidad por medio de los mismos métodos usados en el caso borroso. Además, se formulan axiomas de continuidad y se determina el tipo de continuidad de las medidas propuestas. Finalmente, se sigue un camino similar al caso borroso para el estudio de la compatibilidad. En el tercer capítulo, después de abordar la antonimia de conjuntos borrosos y de conjuntos de Atanassov, se formalizan las nociones de conjuntos suplementarios en estos dos entornos y se presenta, en ambos casos, un método para obtener medidas de suplementaridad a partir de medidas de incompatibilidad vía antónimos. The research described in this report pertains to the field of fuzzy logic and specifically studies incompatibility, compatibility and supplementarity in fuzzy sets and Atanassov's fuzzy sets. As such is the case, Chapter 1 describes both the direct and indirect construction of appropriate functions for measuring incompatibility between two fuzzy sets. We formulate some axioms for modelling the continuity of functions and determine whether the proposed and other measures introduced satisfy any type of continuity. Chapter 2 focuses on the study of incompatibility and compatibility in the field of Ata¬nassov's fuzzy sets. First, we present an axiomatic definition of incompatibility measure in this field. Then, we use the same methods to construct incompatibility measures as in the fuzzy case. Additionally, we formulate continuity axioms and determine the type of conti¬nuity of the proposed measures. Finally, we take a similar approach as in the fuzzy case to the study of compatibility. After examining the antonymy of fuzzy sets and Atanassov's sets, Chapter 3 formalizes the notions of supplementary sets in these two domains, and, in both cases, presents a method for obtaining supplementarity measures from incompatibility measures via antonyms.

Numerical Error Prediction and its applications in CFD using tau-estimation

Nowadays, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers are widely used within the industry to model fluid flow phenomenons. Several fluid flow model equations have been employed in the last decades to simulate and predict forces acting, for example, on different aircraft configurations. Computational time and accuracy are strongly dependent on the fluid flow model equation and the spatial dimension of the problem considered. While simple models based on perfect flows, like panel methods or potential flow models can be very fast to solve, they usually suffer from a poor accuracy in order to simulate real flows (transonic, viscous). On the other hand, more complex models such as the full Navier- Stokes equations provide high fidelity predictions but at a much higher computational cost. Thus, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time has to be fixed for engineering applications. A discretisation technique widely used within the industry is the so-called Finite Volume approach on unstructured meshes. This technique spatially discretises the flow motion equations onto a set of elements which form a mesh, a discrete representation of the continuous domain. Using this approach, for a given flow model equation, the accuracy and computational time mainly depend on the distribution of nodes forming the mesh. Therefore, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time might be obtained by carefully defining the mesh. However, defining an optimal mesh for complex flows and geometries requires a very high level expertize in fluid mechanics and numerical analysis, and in most cases a simple guess of regions of the computational domain which might affect the most the accuracy is impossible. Thus, it is desirable to have an automatized remeshing tool, which is more flexible with unstructured meshes than its structured counterpart. However, adaptive methods currently in use still have an opened question: how to efficiently drive the adaptation ? Pioneering sensors based on flow features generally suffer from a lack of reliability, so in the last decade more effort has been made in developing numerical error-based sensors, like for instance the adjoint-based adaptation sensors. While very efficient at adapting meshes for a given functional output, the latter method is very expensive as it requires to solve a dual set of equations and computes the sensor on an embedded mesh. Therefore, it would be desirable to develop a more affordable numerical error estimation method. The current work aims at estimating the truncation error, which arises when discretising a partial differential equation. These are the higher order terms neglected in the construction of the numerical scheme. The truncation error provides very useful information as it is strongly related to the flow model equation and its discretisation. On one hand, it is a very reliable measure of the quality of the mesh, therefore very useful in order to drive a mesh adaptation procedure. On the other hand, it is strongly linked to the flow model equation, so that a careful estimation actually gives information on how well a given equation is solved, which may be useful in the context of _ -extrapolation or zonal modelling. The following work is organized as follows: Chap. 1 contains a short review of mesh adaptation techniques as well as numerical error prediction. In the first section, Sec. 1.1, the basic refinement strategies are reviewed and the main contribution to structured and unstructured mesh adaptation are presented. Sec. 1.2 introduces the definitions of errors encountered when solving Computational Fluid Dynamics problems and reviews the most common approaches to predict them. Chap. 2 is devoted to the mathematical formulation of truncation error estimation in the context of finite volume methodology, as well as a complete verification procedure. Several features are studied, such as the influence of grid non-uniformities, non-linearity, boundary conditions and non-converged numerical solutions. This verification part has been submitted and accepted for publication in the Journal of Computational Physics. Chap. 3 presents a mesh adaptation algorithm based on truncation error estimates and compares the results to a feature-based and an adjoint-based sensor (in collaboration with Jorge Ponsín, INTA). Two- and three-dimensional cases relevant for validation in the aeronautical industry are considered. This part has been submitted and accepted in the AIAA Journal. An extension to Reynolds Averaged Navier- Stokes equations is also included, where _ -estimation-based mesh adaptation and _ -extrapolation are applied to viscous wing profiles. The latter has been submitted in the Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Keywords: mesh adaptation, numerical error prediction, finite volume Hoy en día, la Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional (CFD) es ampliamente utilizada dentro de la industria para obtener información sobre fenómenos fluidos. La Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional considera distintas modelizaciones de las ecuaciones fluidas (Potencial, Euler, Navier-Stokes, etc) para simular y predecir las fuerzas que actúan, por ejemplo, sobre una configuración de aeronave. El tiempo de cálculo y la precisión en la solución depende en gran medida de los modelos utilizados, así como de la dimensión espacial del problema considerado. Mientras que modelos simples basados en flujos perfectos, como modelos de flujos potenciales, se pueden resolver rápidamente, por lo general aducen de una baja precisión a la hora de simular flujos reales (viscosos, transónicos, etc). Por otro lado, modelos más complejos tales como el conjunto de ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes proporcionan predicciones de alta fidelidad, a expensas de un coste computacional mucho más elevado. Por lo tanto, en términos de aplicaciones de ingeniería se debe fijar un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo. Una técnica de discretización ampliamente utilizada en la industria es el método de los Volúmenes Finitos en mallas no estructuradas. Esta técnica discretiza espacialmente las ecuaciones del movimiento del flujo sobre un conjunto de elementos que forman una malla, una representación discreta del dominio continuo. Utilizando este enfoque, para una ecuación de flujo dado, la precisión y el tiempo computacional dependen principalmente de la distribución de los nodos que forman la malla. Por consiguiente, un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo se podría obtener definiendo cuidadosamente la malla, concentrando sus elementos en aquellas zonas donde sea estrictamente necesario. Sin embargo, la definición de una malla óptima para corrientes y geometrías complejas requiere un nivel muy alto de experiencia en la mecánica de fluidos y el análisis numérico, así como un conocimiento previo de la solución. Aspecto que en la mayoría de los casos no está disponible. Por tanto, es deseable tener una herramienta que permita adaptar los elementos de malla de forma automática, acorde a la solución fluida (remallado). Esta herramienta es generalmente más flexible en mallas no estructuradas que con su homóloga estructurada. No obstante, los métodos de adaptación actualmente en uso todavía dejan una pregunta abierta: cómo conducir de manera eficiente la adaptación. Sensores pioneros basados en las características del flujo en general, adolecen de una falta de fiabilidad, por lo que en la última década se han realizado grandes esfuerzos en el desarrollo numérico de sensores basados en el error, como por ejemplo los sensores basados en el adjunto. A pesar de ser muy eficientes en la adaptación de mallas para un determinado funcional, este último método resulta muy costoso, pues requiere resolver un doble conjunto de ecuaciones: la solución y su adjunta. Por tanto, es deseable desarrollar un método numérico de estimación de error más asequible. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar el error local de truncación, que aparece cuando se discretiza una ecuación en derivadas parciales. Estos son los términos de orden superior olvidados en la construcción del esquema numérico. El error de truncación proporciona una información muy útil sobre la solución: es una medida muy fiable de la calidad de la malla, obteniendo información que permite llevar a cabo un procedimiento de adaptación de malla. Está fuertemente relacionado al modelo matemático fluido, de modo que una estimación precisa garantiza la idoneidad de dicho modelo en un campo fluido, lo que puede ser útil en el contexto de modelado zonal. Por último, permite mejorar la precisión de la solución resolviendo un nuevo sistema donde el error local actúa como término fuente (_ -extrapolación). El presenta trabajo se organiza de la siguiente manera: Cap. 1 contiene una breve reseña de las técnicas de adaptación de malla, así como de los métodos de predicción de los errores numéricos. En la primera sección, Sec. 1.1, se examinan las estrategias básicas de refinamiento y se presenta la principal contribución a la adaptación de malla estructurada y no estructurada. Sec 1.2 introduce las definiciones de los errores encontrados en la resolución de problemas de Dinámica Computacional de Fluidos y se examinan los enfoques más comunes para predecirlos. Cap. 2 está dedicado a la formulación matemática de la estimación del error de truncación en el contexto de la metodología de Volúmenes Finitos, así como a un procedimiento de verificación completo. Se estudian varias características que influyen en su estimación: la influencia de la falta de uniformidad de la malla, el efecto de las no linealidades del modelo matemático, diferentes condiciones de contorno y soluciones numéricas no convergidas. Esta parte de verificación ha sido presentada y aceptada para su publicación en el Journal of Computational Physics. Cap. 3 presenta un algoritmo de adaptación de malla basado en la estimación del error de truncación y compara los resultados con sensores de featured-based y adjointbased (en colaboración con Jorge Ponsín del INTA). Se consideran casos en dos y tres dimensiones, relevantes para la validación en la industria aeronáutica. Este trabajo ha sido presentado y aceptado en el AIAA Journal. También se incluye una extensión de estos métodos a las ecuaciones RANS (Reynolds Average Navier- Stokes), en donde adaptación de malla basada en _ y _ -extrapolación son aplicados a perfiles con viscosidad de alas. Este último trabajo se ha presentado en los Actas de la Institución de Ingenieros Mecánicos, Parte G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Palabras clave: adaptación de malla, predicción del error numérico, volúmenes finitos

Stabilization in a two-species chemotaxis system with logistic source

We study a system of three partial differential equations modelling the spatiotemporal behaviour of two competitive populations of biological species both of which are attracted chemotactically by the same signal substance. For a range of the parameters the system possesses a uniquely determined spatially homogeneous positive equilibrium (u?, v?) globally asymptotically stable within a certain nonempty range of the logistic growth coefficients.

Numerical simulation of tangling in jet engine turbines

The numerical analysis of certain safety related problems presents serious difficulties, since the large number of components present leads to huge finite elementmodels that can only be solved by using large and expensive computers or by making rough approaches to the problem. Tangling, or clashing, in the turbine of a jet engine airplane is an example of such problems. This is caused by the crash and friction between rotor and stator blades in the turbine after an eventual shaft failure. When facing the study of an event through numerical modelling, the accurate simulation of this problem would require the engineer to model all the rotor and stator blades existing in the turbine stage, using a small element size in all pieces. Given that the number of stator and rotor blades is usually around 200, such simulations would require millions of elements. This work presents a new numerical methodology, specifically developed for the accurate modelling of the tangling problem that, depending on the turbine configuration, is able to reduce the number of nodes up to an order of magnitude without losing accuracy. The methodology, which benefits from the cyclic configuration of turbines, is successfully applied to the numerical analysis of a hypothetical tangling event in a turbine, providing valuable data such as the rotating velocity decrease of the turbine, the braking torque and the damage suffered by the blades. The methodology is somewhat general and can be applied to any problem in which damage caused by the interaction between a rotating and static piece is to be analysed.

Kinematic analysis of a novel 2-d.o.f. orientation device

This paper presents the development of a new parallel robot designed for helping with bone milling surgeries. The robot is a small modular wrist with 2 active degrees of freedom, and it is proposed to be used as an orientation device located at the end of a robotic arm designed for bone milling processes. A generic kinematic geometry is proposed for this device. This first article shows the developments on the workspace optimization and the analysis of the force field required to complete a reconstruction of the inferior jawbone. The singularities of the mechanism are analyzed, and the actuator selection is justified with the torque requirements and the study of the force space. The results obtained by the simulations allow building a first prototype using linear motors. Bone milling experiment video is shown as additional material.

Distributed bees algorithm for task allocation in swarm of robots

In this paper, we propose the distributed bees algorithm (DBA) for task allocation in a swarm of robots. In the proposed scenario, task allocation consists in assigning the robots to the found targets in a 2-D arena. The expected distribution is obtained from the targets' qualities that are represented as scalar values. Decision-making mechanism is distributed and robots autonomously choose their assignments taking into account targets' qualities and distances. We tested the scalability of the proposed DBA algorithm in terms of number of robots and number of targets. For that, the experiments were performed in the simulator for various sets of parameters, including number of robots, number of targets, and targets' utilities. Control parameters inherent to DBA were tuned to test how they affect the final robot distribution. The simulation results show that by increasing the robot swarm size, the distribution error decreased.

ARGoS: a modular, multi-engine simulator for heterogeneous swarm robotics

We present ARGoS, a novel open source multi-robot simulator. The main design focus of ARGoS is the real-time simulation of large heterogeneous swarms of robots. Existing robot simulators obtain scalability by imposing limitations on their extensibility and on the accuracy of the robot models. By contrast, in ARGoS we pursue a deeply modular approach that allows the user both to easily add custom features and to allocate computational resources where needed by the experiment. A unique feature of ARGoS is the possibility to use multiple physics engines of different types and to assign them to different parts of the environment. Robots can migrate from one engine to another transparently. This feature enables entirely novel classes of optimizations to improve scalability and paves the way for a new approach to parallelism in robotics simulation. Results show that ARGoS can simulate about 10,000 simple wheeled robots 40% faster than real-time.

WYPIWYG Hyperelasticity

In this paper we describe a new promising procedure to model hyperelastic materials from given stress-strain data. The main advantage of the proposed method is that the user does not need to have a relevant knowledge of hyperelasticity, large strains or hyperelastic constitutive modelling. The engineer simply has to prescribe some stress strain experimental data (whether isotropic or anisotropic) in also user prescribed stress and strain measures and the model almost exactly replicates the experimental data. The procedure is based on the piece-wise splines model by Sussman and Bathe and may be easily generalized to transversely isotropic and orthotropic materials. The model is also amenable of efficient finite element implementation. In this paper we briefly describe the general procedure, addressing the advantages and limitations. We give predictions for arbitrary ?experimental data? and also give predictions for actual experiments of the behaviour of living soft tissues. The model may be also implemented in a general purpose finite element program. Since the obtained strain energy functions are analytic piece-wise functions, the constitutive tangent may be readily derived in order to be used for implicit static problems, where the equilibrium iterations must be performed and the material tangent is needed in order to preserve the quadratic rate of convergence of Newton procedures.

Flow and wakes in complex terrain and offshore. Model development and verification in UPWIND

The paper presents research conducted in the Flow workpackage of the EU funded UPWIND project which focuses on improving models for flow within and downwind of large wind farms in complex terrain and offshore. The main activity is modelling the behaviour of wind turbine wakes in order to improve power output predictions.

Analyzing energy-efficient configurations in hexapod robots for demining applications

Purpose – Reducing energy consumption in walking robots is an issue of great importance in field applications such as humanitarian demining so as to increase mission time for a given power supply. The purpose of this paper is to address the problem of improving energy efficiency in statically stable walking machines by comparing two leg, insect and mammal, configurations on the hexapod robotic platform SILO6. Design/methodology/approach – Dynamic simulation of this hexapod is used to develop a set of rules that optimize energy expenditure in both configurations. Later, through a theoretical analysis of energy consumption and experimental measurements in the real platform SILO6, a configuration is chosen. Findings – It is widely accepted that the mammal configuration in statically stable walking machines is better for supporting high loads, while the insect configuration is considered to be better for improving mobility. However, taking into account the leg dynamics and not only the body weight, different results are obtained. In a mammal configuration, supporting body weight accounts for 5 per cent of power consumption while leg dynamics accounts for 31 per cent. Originality/value – As this paper demonstrates, the energy expended when the robot walks along a straight and horizontal line is the same for both insect and mammal configurations, while power consumption during crab walking in an insect configuration exceeds power consumption in the mammal configuration.

Distributes award protocol: A cooperation and communication method for robots.

In this Master’s Thesis a new Distributed Award Protocol (DAP) for robot communication and cooperation is presented. Task assignment (contract awarding) is done dynamically with contracts assigned to robots based upon the best bid received. Instead of having a manager and a contractor it is proposed a fully distributed bidding/awarding mechanism without a distinguished master. The best bidding robots are awarded with contract for execution. The contractors make decisions locally. This brings the following benefits: no communication bottleneck, low computational power requirement, increased robustness. DAP can handle multitasking. Tasks can be injected into system during the execution of already allocated tasks. As tasks have priorities, in the next cycle after taking into account actual bid parameters of all robots, tasks can be re-allocated. The aim is to minimize a global cost function which is a compromise between cost of task execution and cost of resources usage. Information about tasks and bid values is spread among robots with the use of a Round Robin Route, which is a novel solution proposed in this work. This method allows also identifying failed robots. Such failed robot is eliminated from the list of awarded robots and its replacement is found so the task is still executed by a team. If the failure of a robot was temporary (e.g. communication noise) and the robot can recover, it can again participate in the next bidding/awarding process. Using a bidding/awarding mechanism allows robots to dynamically relocate among tasks. This is also contributes to system robustness. DAP was evaluated through multiple experiments done in the multi-robot simulation system. Various scenarios were tested to check the idea of the main algorithm. Different failures of robots (communication failures, partial hardware malfunctions) were simulated and observations were made regarding how DAP recovers from them. Also the DAP flexibility to environment changes was watched. The experiments in the simulated environment confirmed the above features of DAP.

Detection and Tracking of Dynamic Objects. A MultiRobot approach to Critical Infrastructures Surveillance.

Despite that Critical Infrastructures (CIs) security and surveillance are a growing concern for many countries and companies, Multi Robot Systems (MRSs) have not been yet broadly used in this type of facilities. This dissertation presents a novel study of the challenges arisen by the implementation of this type of systems and proposes solutions to specific problems. First, a comprehensive analysis of different types of CIs has been carried out, emphasizing the influence of the different characteristics of the facilities in the design of a security and surveillance MRS. One of the most important needs for the surveillance of a CI is the detection of intruders. From a technical point of view this problem can be abstracted as equivalent to the Detection and Tracking of Mobile Objects (DATMO). This dissertation proposes algorithms to solve this specific problem in a CI environment. Using 3D range images of the environment as input data, two detection algorithms for ground robots have been developed. These detection algorithms provide a list of moving objects in the robot detection area. Direct image differentiation and computer vision techniques are used when the robot is static. Alternatively, multi-layer ground reconstructions are compared to detect the dynamic objects when the robot is moving. Since CIs usually spread over large areas, it is very useful to incorporate aerial vehicles in the surveillance MRS. Therefore, a moving object detection algorithm for aerial vehicles has been also developed. This algorithm compares the real optical flow obtained from a down-face oriented camera with an artificial optical flow computed using a RANSAC based homography matrix. Two tracking algorithms have been developed to follow the moving objects trajectories. These algorithms can efficiently handle occlusions and crossings, as well as exchange information among robots. The multirobot tracking can be applied to any type of communication structure: centralized, decentralized or a combination of both. Even more, the developed tracking algorithms are independent of the detection algorithms and could be potentially used with other detection procedures or even with static sensors, such as cameras. In addition, using the 3D point clouds available to the robots, a relative localization algorithm has been developed to improve the position estimation of a given robot with observations from other robots. All the developed algorithms have been extensively tested in different simulated CIs using the Webots robotics simulator. Furthermore, the algorithms have also been validated with real robots operating in real scenarios. In conclusion, this dissertation presents a multirobot approach to Critical Infrastructure Surveillance, mainly focusing on Detecting and Tracking Dynamic Objects.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Vista general del modelado del sistema auditivo

El objetivo principal del presente proyecto es proporcionar al ingeniero de telecomunicaciones una visión general de las técnicas que se utilizan en el modelado del sistema auditivo. El modelado del sistema auditivo se realiza con los siguientes objetivos: a) Interpretar medidas directas, b)unificar el entendimiento de diferentes fenómenos, c) guiar estrategias de amplificación para suplir pérdidas auditivas y d) tener predicciones experimentalmente comprobables de comportamientos, con diferentes niveles de complejidad. En este trabajo se tratarán y explicarán brevemente las diferentes técnicas utilizadas para modelar las partes del sistema auditivo, desde las analogías electroacústicas, modelos biofísicos, binaurales, hasta la implementación de filtros auditivos mediante procesado de señal. Podemos concluir que el modelado mediante analogías electroacústicas permite una rápida implementación y entendimiento, pero tiene ciertas limitaciones. Las simulaciones mediante análisis numéricos son precisas y de gran utilidad tanto para del oído medio como para el interno. El procesado de señal es el procedimiento más completo y utilizado ya que permite modelar oído externo y medio además de permitir la implementación de filtros cocleares muy precisos y coherentes con la realidad incluyéndolos en modelos perceptivos. ABSTRACT. The main aim of the Project is to provide the Telecommunications Engineer an overview about the approaches for modelling the auditory system. The auditory system modelling is done for the next objectives: a) Interpret direct measures, b) Understand different phenomena c) get strategies of amplification for hearing impaired people and d) Obtain testable predictions experimentally about some behaviors with different complexity levels. Inside this document, several approaches about modeling of the auditory system parts will be explained: analog circuits, biophysics models, binaural models, and auditory filters made through signal processing. In conclusion, analog circuits are made quickly and they are easier to understand but they have many limitations. Simulations through numerical analysis are accurate and useful in middle and inner ear models. Signal processing is the more versatile approach because it lets to make a model of external and middle ear and then it allows to make complex auditory filters. Perceptive models can be made entirely through this method.