Panel discussion: U.S. EPA using modeling and ecosystem services to enhance coastal decision making

This panel will discuss the research being conducted, and the models being used in three current coastal EPA studies being conducted on ecosystem services in Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and the Coastal Carolinas. These studies are intended to provide a broader and more comprehensive approach to policy and decision-making affecting coastal ecosystems as well as provide an account of valued services that have heretofore been largely unrecognized. Interim research products, including updated and integrated spatial data, models and model frameworks, and interactive decision support systems will be demonstrated to engage potential users and to elicit feedback. It is anticipated that the near-term impact of the projects will be to increase the awareness by coastal communities and coastal managers of the implications of their actions and to foster partnerships for ecosystem services research and applications. (PDF contains 4 pages)

To pave or not to pave: A social landscape analysis of land use decision-making in the towns of the lamprey watershed

Population pressure in coastal New Hampshire challenges land use decision-making and threatens the ecological health and functioning of Great Bay, an estuary designated as both a NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve and an EPA National Estuary Program site. Regional population in the seacoast has quadrupled in four decades resulting in sprawl, increased impervious surface cover and larger lot rural development (Zankel, et.al., 2006). All of Great Bay’s contributing watersheds face these challenges, resulting in calls for strategies addressing growth, development and land use planning. The communities within the Lamprey River watershed comprise this case study. Do these towns communicate upstream and downstream when making land use decisions? Are cumulative effects considered while debating development? Do town land use groups consider the Bay or the coasts in their decision-making? This presentation, a follow-up from the TCS 2008 conference and a completed dissertation, will discuss a novel social science approach to analyze and understand the social landscape of land use decision-making in the towns of the Lamprey River watershed. The methods include semi-structured interviews with GIS based maps in a grounded theory analytical strategy. The discussion will include key findings, opportunities and challenges in moving towards a watershed approach for land use planning. This presentation reviews the results of the case study and developed methodology, which can be used in watersheds elsewhere to map out the potential for moving towns towards EBM and watershed-scaled, land use planning. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Marketing of fishing gear materials and fishing gear making in parts of Kainji Lake basin

The importance of fishing gear in fishing cannot be over-emphasized; as without it fish cannot be obtained. The method used to catch fish affects the condition in which the product is landed. This means that a bad-catching method would produced bad fish to the consumer. To achieve the goal of self-sufficiency in fish production in Nigeria, there is need to address the lingering problems of fishing gear and craft technology, especially in terms of availability of materials and their cost. The sale and making of fishing gear materials are two areas of fisheries, which are yet to be exploited by the general public as forms of businesses for livelihood. The study is conducted in villages around the lower part of Kainji Lake, towards the dam, including New Bussa. It reveals that only the fishermen themselves are involved in making their own fishing gears while those involved in the selling of fishing gear materials like the sheet netting, ropes, twines, floats, sinkers etc are business men and women who may not have any experience of fishing. Also considered in the study is the art of making fishing crafts like the canoe and gourd. Very few entrepreneurs are involved and they are so skilled that each is specialized in the making of only one kind of craft or gear

Making object-oriented databases more knowledgeable (From ADAM to ABEL)

Tesis leida en la Universidad de Aberdeen. 178 p.

Characterization of the neural mechanisms supporting the implementation of cognitive control in human decision making

Humans are particularly adept at modifying their behavior in accordance with changing environmental demands. Through various mechanisms of cognitive control, individuals are able to tailor actions to fit complex short- and long-term goals. The research described in this thesis uses functional magnetic resonance imaging to characterize the neural correlates of cognitive control at two levels of complexity: response inhibition and self-control in intertemporal choice. First, we examined changes in neural response associated with increased experience and skill in response inhibition; successful response inhibition was associated with decreased neural response over time in the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, a region widely implicated in cognitive control, providing evidence for increased neural efficiency with learned automaticity. We also examined a more abstract form of cognitive control using intertemporal choice. In two experiments, we identified putative neural substrates for individual differences in temporal discounting, or the tendency to prefer immediate to delayed rewards. Using dynamic causal models, we characterized the neural circuit between ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an area involved in valuation, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in self-control in intertemporal and dietary choice, and found that connectivity from dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to ventromedial prefrontal cortex increases at the time of choice, particularly when delayed rewards are chosen. Moreover, estimates of the strength of connectivity predicted out-of-sample individual rates of temporal discounting, suggesting a neurocomputational mechanism for variation in the ability to delay gratification. Next, we interrogated the hypothesis that individual differences in temporal discounting are in part explained by the ability to imagine future reward outcomes. Using a novel paradigm, we imaged neural response during the imagining of primary rewards, and identified negative correlations between activity in regions associated the processing of both real and imagined rewards (lateral orbitofrontal cortex and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, respectively) and the individual temporal discounting parameters estimated in the previous experiment. These data suggest that individuals who are better able to represent reward outcomes neurally are less susceptible to temporal discounting. Together, these findings provide further insight into role of the prefrontal cortex in implementing cognitive control, and propose neurobiological substrates for individual variation.

Discounting the value of natural resources in costbenefit analysis: a case study for policy making

4 p.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

The meaning of some common terms used in sampling toxic phytoplankton

The author explains some aspects of sampling phytoplankton blooms and the evaluation of results obtained from different methods. Qualitative and quantitative sampling is covered as well as filtration, freeze-drying and toxin separation.

Em busca do convívio social: o regime semi-aberto no Instituto Penal Oscar Stevenson

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo central analisar o Sistema Penitenciário do Estado do Rio de Janeiro a partir do regime semi-aberto, tendo como campo de análise o Instituto Penal Oscar Stevenson, situado em Benfica, no município do Rio de Janeiro, voltado para um público carcerário feminino. Buscou-se verificar, sob o enfoque das presas, a expectativa e possibilidades de retorno ao convívio social; analisar os aspectos jurídico-institucionais referentes ao regime semi-aberto, no que tange a obtenção dos benefícios, junto a Lei de Execução Penal e identificar quais as parcerias que viabilizam a inserção delas no mercado de trabalho. Para a efetivação desse trabalho utilizou-se, preferencialmente os pressupostos teóricos e metodológicos da pesquisa quali-quantitativa, pois foi trabalhado não só no nível da objetividade, mas também no significado das ações e relações humanas, sabendo que a realidade prisional é perpassada por questões de cunho opressor, punitivo, em função de preconizar a segurança. Foram realizados também levantamentos de dados bibliográficos e censitários, bem como entrevistas semi-estruturadas junto aos agentes penitenciários do setor de educação e classificação e principalmente as presas. A análise do material coletado permitiu confirmar as hipóteses da pesquisa: i) que a ausência de oportunidades que garantam às presas os benefícios do regime semi-aberto não se dá por falta de instrumentos legais, mas sim pela burocracia no cadastramento e poucas parcerias de cursos profissionalizantes, empresas privadas que absorvam mão-de-obra das presas do regime semi-aberto; e ii) e que no momento em que as presas ainda estavam no regime fechado, não tiveram oportunidades de se capacitarem e também os vínculos familiares não foram mantidos, com isso dificultando que estas usufruam dos benefícios do regime semi-aberto. E, conseqüentemente, sendo cada vez mais adiado o seu retorno gradativo ao convívio social, através da progressão de regime.

O papel dos grupos de interesse no "trade policy making" brasileiro: o caso das negociações Brasil-Argentina para o setor automotivo

Desde a redemocratização do país em 1985 o MRE já vinha se posicionando à favor do diálogo com os mais diversos grupos e entidades sociais. Neste sentido, observou-se ao longo dos últimos anos um aprofundamento da interação com parlamentares, governos estaduais e municipais, empresários, sindicalistas, ONGs e imprensa. A construção de vínculos entre as organizações da sociedade civil críticas das negociações comerciais ao longo da década de 1990 permite falar na criação de um novo campo de ação coletiva transnacional, definido como um espaço de ação política formado por indivíduos e organizações da sociedade civil que participam do processo de elaboração de um conjunto comum de práticas, objetivos e crenças. O que se pode concluir é que diante de um contexto mais competitivo e globalizado, após processo de abertura comercial e intensificação da participação brasileira nas negociações internacionais, a representação dos interesses da classe empresarial teve que se adaptar criando uma nova forma de organização. Desse modo, o presente trabalho visa analisar a crescente interferência de grupos de interesse no processo de tomada de decisão, no que tange aos assuntos de política externa comercial brasileira, tais como as negociações comerciais internacionais por se tratar de um ambiente cujos interesses da classe empresarial mais podem ser afetados. As negociações comerciais internacionais é o ambiente em que a atuação empresarial mais pode ser percebida. As negociações do Mercosul e da ALCA possibilitam observar a participação ativa destes novos atores. Sendo assim, o trabalho apresenta a nova dinâmica de relacionamento entre Estado e grupos da sociedade civil (classe empresarial) para temas ligados a comércio exterior.