954 resultados para mean-variance estimation


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Height is a critical variable for helicopter hover control. In this paper we discuss, and present experimental results for, two different height sensing techniques: ultrasonic and stereo imaging, which have complementary characteristics. Feature-based stereo is used which provides a basis for visual odometry and attitude estimation in the future.

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It is traditional to initialise Kalman filters and extended Kalman filters with estimates of the states calculated directly from the observed (raw) noisy inputs, but unfortunately their performance is extremely sensitive to state initialisation accuracy: good initial state estimates ensure fast convergence whereas poor estimates may give rise to slow convergence or even filter divergence. Divergence is generally due to excessive observation noise and leads to error magnitudes that quickly become unbounded (R.J. Fitzgerald, 1971). When a filter diverges, it must be re initialised but because the observations are extremely poor, re initialised states will have poor estimates. The paper proposes that if neurofuzzy estimators produce more accurate state estimates than those calculated from the observed noisy inputs (using the known state model), then neurofuzzy estimates can be used to initialise the states of Kalman and extended Kalman filters. Filters whose states have been initialised with neurofuzzy estimates should give improved performance by way of faster convergence when the filter is initialised, and when a filter is re started after divergence

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Objective Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) often requires technicians to wear multiple protective garments in challenging environmental conditions. The accumulative effect of increased metabolic cost coupled with decreased heat dissipation associated with these garments predisposes technicians to high levels of physiological strain. It has been proposed that a perceptual strain index (PeSI) using subjective ratings of thermal sensation and perceived exertion as surrogate measures of core body temperature and heart rate, may provide an accurate estimation of physiological strain. Therefore, this study aimed to determine if the PeSI could estimate the physiological strain index (PSI) across a range of metabolic workloads and environments while wearing heavy EOD and chemical protective clothing. Methods Eleven healthy males wore an EOD and chemical protective ensemble while walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km·h− 1 at 1% grade in environmental conditions equivalent to wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 21, 30 and 37 °C. WBGT conditions were randomly presented and a maximum of three randomised treadmill walking trials were completed in a single testing day. Trials were ceased at a maximum of 60-min or until the attainment of termination criteria. A Pearson's correlation coefficient, mixed linear model, absolute agreement and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the relationship between the PeSI and PSI. Results A significant moderate relationship between the PeSI and the PSI was observed [r = 0.77; p < 0.001; mean difference = 0.8 ± 1.1 a.u. (modified 95% limits of agreement − 1.3 to 3.0)]. The ROC curves indicated that the PeSI had a good predictive power when used with two, single-threshold cut-offs to differentiate between low and high levels of physiological strain (area under curve: PSI three cut-off = 0.936 and seven cut-off = 0.841). Conclusions These findings support the use of the PeSI for monitoring physiological strain while wearing EOD and chemical protective clothing. However, future research is needed to confirm the validity of the PeSI for active EOD technicians operating in the field.

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In this paper, we propose a novel online hidden Markov model (HMM) parameter estimator based on the new information-theoretic concept of one-step Kerridge inaccuracy (OKI). Under several regulatory conditions, we establish a convergence result (and some limited strong consistency results) for our proposed online OKI-based parameter estimator. In simulation studies, we illustrate the global convergence behaviour of our proposed estimator and provide a counter-example illustrating the local convergence of other popular HMM parameter estimators.

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Background Serum lutein (L) and zeaxanthin (Z) positively correlate with macular pigment optical density (MPOD), hence the latter is a valuable indirect tool for measuring L and Z content in the macula. L and Z have been attributed antioxidant capacity and protection from certain retinal diseases but their uptake within the eye is thought to depend on genetic, age and environmental factors. In particular gene variants within beta-carotene monooxygenase (BCMO1) are thought to modulate MPOD in the macula. Objectives: To determine the effect of BCMO1 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs11645428, rs6420424 and rs6464851 on macular pigment optical density (MPOD) in a cohort of young healthy participants of Caucasian origin with normal ocular health. Design In this cohort study, MPOD was assessed in 46 healthy participants (22 male and 24 female) with a mean age of 24 ± 4.0 years (range 19-33). The three SNPs, rs11645428, rs6420424, rs6564851 that have established associations with MPOD were determined using MassEXTEND (hME) Sequenom assay. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed on groups segregated into homozygous and heterozygous BCMO1 genotypes. Correlations between body mass index (BMI), iris colour, gender, central retinal thickness (CRT), diet and MPOD were investigated. Results MPOD did not significantly vary with BCMO1 rs11645428 (F2,41 = 0.700, p = 0.503), rs6420424 (F2,41 = 0.210, p = 0.801) nor rs6464851 homozygous or heterozygous genotypes (F2,41 = 0,13, p = 0.88), in this young healthy cohort. The combination of these three SNPs into triple genotypes based on plasma conversion efficiency did not affect MPOD (F2,41 = 0.07, p = 0.9). There was a significant negative correlation with MPOD and central retinal thickness (r = - 0.39, p = 0.01) but no significant correlation between BMI, iris colour, gender and MPOD. Conclusion Our results indicate that macular pigment deposition within the central retina is not dependent on BCMO1 gene variants in young healthy people. We propose that MPOD is saturated in younger persons and/or other gene variant combinations determine its deposition.

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Intermittent generation from wind farms leads to fluctuating power system operating conditions pushing the stability margin to its limits. The traditional way of determining the worst case generation dispatch for a system with several semi-scheduled wind generators yields a conservative solution. This paper proposes a fast estimation of the transient stability margin (TSM) incorporating the uncertainty of wind generation. First, the Kalman filter (KF) is used to provide linear estimation of system angle and then unscented transformation (UT) is used to estimate the distribution of the TSM. The proposed method is compared with the traditional Monte Carlo (MC) method and the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified using Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) and IEEE 14 generator Australian dynamic system. This method will aid grid operators to perform fast online calculations to estimate TSM distribution of a power system with high levels of intermittent wind generation.

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The objective of this study was to determine the influence of lactose carrier size on drug dispersion of salmeterol xinafoate (SX) from interactive mixtures. SX dispersion was measured by using the fine particle fractions determined by a twin stage impinger attached to a Rotahaler1. The particle size of the lactose carrier in the SX interactive mixtures was varied using a range of commercial inhalation-grade lactoses. In addition, differing size fractions of individual lactose samples were achieved by dry sieving. The dispersion ofSXappeared to increase as the particle size of the lactose carrier decreased for the mixtures prepared from different particle size commercial samples of lactose and from different sieve fractions of the same lactose. Fine particles of lactose (<5 mm) associated with the lactose carrier were removed from the carrier surface by a wet decantation process to produce lactose samples with low but similar concentrations of fine lactose particles. The fine particle fractions of SX in mixtures prepared with the decanted lactose decreased significantly (analysis of variance, p<0.001) and the degree of dispersion became independent of the volume mean diameter of the carriers (analysis of variance, p<0.05). The dispersion behavior is therefore associated with the presence of fine adhered particles associated with the carriers and the inherent size of the carrier itself has little influence on dispersion.

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In this paper we introduce a novel domain-invariant covariance normalization (DICN) technique to relocate both in-domain and out-domain i-vectors into a third dataset-invariant space, providing an improvement for out-domain PLDA speaker verification with a very small number of unlabelled in-domain adaptation i-vectors. By capturing the dataset variance from a global mean using both development out-domain i-vectors and limited unlabelled in-domain i-vectors, we could obtain domain- invariant representations of PLDA training data. The DICN- compensated out-domain PLDA system is shown to perform as well as in-domain PLDA training with as few as 500 unlabelled in-domain i-vectors for NIST-2010 SRE and 2000 unlabelled in-domain i-vectors for NIST-2008 SRE, and considerable relative improvement over both out-domain and in-domain PLDA development if more are available.

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Problem The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include contacting researchers to obtain unpublished results. Method The present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken. Results Outlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, analysis using the proxy of the mean of accidents in studies indicated that studies where effects for violations are unknown have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations that controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (r<.07) for violations versus traffic accident involvement, depending upon which systematic tendencies in the data are controlled for. Conclusions: Methodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the mean effect size of the DBQ in the published literature. Strong evidence of various artefactual effects is apparent. Practical Applications A greater level of care should be taken if the DBQ continues to be used in traffic safety research. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into account the possibility of common method variance.

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Leaked Trans-Pacific Partnership documents show the US is pushing for unprecedented penalties for those (like journalists) who expose trade secrets. Will Australia go along with the proposal?

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Background Physical conditions through gait and other functional task are parameters to consider for frailty detection. The aim of the present study is to measure and describe the variability of acceleration, angular velocity and trunk displacement in the ten meter Extended Timed Get-Up-and-Go test in two groups of frail and non-frail elderly people through instrumentation with the iPhone4® smartphone. Secondly, to analyze the differences and performance of the variance between the study groups (frail and non-frail). This is a cross-sectional study of 30 subjects aged over 65 years, 14 frail subjects and 16 non-frail subjects. Results The highest difference between groups in the Sit-to-Stand and Stand-to-Sit subphases was in the y axis (vertical vector). The minimum acceleration in the Stand-to-Sit phase was -2.69 (-4.17 / -0.96) m/s2 frail elderly versus -8.49 (-12.1 / -5.23) m/s2 non-frail elderly, p < 0.001. In the Gait Go and Gait Come subphases the biggest differences found between the groups were in the vertical axis: -2.45 (-2.77 /-1.89) m/s2 frail elderly versus -5.93 (-6.87 / -4.51) m/s2 non-frail elderly, p < 0.001. Finally, with regards to the turning subphase, the statistically significant differences found between the groups were greater in the data obtained from the gyroscope than from the accelerometer (the gyroscope data for the mean maximum peak value for Yaw movement angular velocity in the frail elderly was specifically 25.60°/s, compared to 112.8°/s for the non-frail elderly, p < 0.05). Conclusions The inertial sensor fitted in the iPhone4® is capable of studying and analyzing the kinematics of the different subphases of the Extended Timed Up and Go test in frail and non-frail elderly people. For the Extended Timed Up and Go test, this device allows more sensitive differentiation between population groups than the traditionally used variable, namely time.

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Although key to understanding individual variation in task-related brain activation, the genetic contribution to these individual differences remains largely unknown. Here we report voxel-by-voxel genetic model fitting in a large sample of 319 healthy, young adult, human identical and fraternal twins (mean ± SD age, 23.6 ±1.8 years) who performed an n-back working memory task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) at a high magnetic field (4 tesla). Patterns of task-related brain response (BOLD signal difference of 2-back minus 0-back) were significantly heritable, with the highest estimates (40 - 65%) in the inferior, middle, and superior frontal gyri, left supplementary motor area, precentral and postcentral gyri, middle cingulate cortex, superior medial gyrus, angular gyrus, superior parietal lobule, including precuneus, and superior occipital gyri. Furthermore, high test-retest reliability for a subsample of 40 twins indicates that nongenetic variance in the fMRI brain response is largely due to unique environmental influences rather than measurement error. Individual variations in activation of the working memory network are therefore significantly influenced by genetic factors. By establishing the heritability of cognitive brain function in a large sample that affords good statistical power, and using voxel-by-voxel analyses, this study provides the necessary evidence for task-related brain activation to be considered as an endophenotype for psychiatric or neurological disorders, and represents a substantial new contribution to the field of neuroimaging genetics. These genetic brain maps should facilitate discovery of gene variants influencing cognitive brain function through genome-wide association studies, potentially opening up new avenues in the treatment of brain disorders.

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Genetic and environmental factors influence brain structure and function profoundly. The search for heritable anatomical features and their influencing genes would be accelerated with detailed 3D maps showing the degree to which brain morphometry is genetically determined. As part of an MRI study that will scan 1150 twins, we applied Tensor-Based Morphometry to compute morphometric differences in 23 pairs of identical twins and 23 pairs of same-sex fraternal twins (mean age: 23.8 ± 1.8 SD years). All 92 twins' 3D brain MRI scans were nonlinearly registered to a common space using a Riemannian fluid-based warping approach to compute volumetric differences across subjects. A multi-template method was used to improve volume quantification. Vector fields driving each subject's anatomy onto the common template were analyzed to create maps of local volumetric excesses and deficits relative to the standard template. Using a new structural equation modeling method, we computed the voxelwise proportion of variance in volumes attributable to additive (A) or dominant (D) genetic factors versus shared environmental (C) or unique environmental factors (E). The method was also applied to various anatomical regions of interest (ROIs). As hypothesized, the overall volumes of the brain, basal ganglia, thalamus, and each lobe were under strong genetic control; local white matter volumes were mostly controlled by common environment. After adjusting for individual differences in overall brain scale, genetic influences were still relatively high in the corpus callosum and in early-maturing brain regions such as the occipital lobes, while environmental influences were greater in frontal brain regions that have a more protracted maturational time-course.

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Despite substantial progress in measuring the anatomical and functional variability of the human brain, little is known about the genetic and environmental causes of these variations. Here we developed an automated system to visualize genetic and environmental effects on brain structure in large brain MRI databases. We applied our multi-template segmentation approach termed "Multi-Atlas Fluid Image Alignment" to fluidly propagate hand-labeled parameterized surface meshes, labeling the lateral ventricles, in 3D volumetric MRI scans of 76 identical (monozygotic, MZ) twins (38 pairs; mean age = 24.6 (SD = 1.7)); and 56 same-sex fraternal (dizygotic, DZ) twins (28 pairs; mean age = 23.0 (SD = 1.8)), scanned as part of a 5-year research study that will eventually study over 1000 subjects. Mesh surfaces were averaged within subjects to minimize segmentation error. We fitted quantitative genetic models at each of 30,000 surface points to measure the proportion of shape variance attributable to (1) genetic differences among subjects, (2) environmental influences unique to each individual, and (3) shared environmental effects. Surface-based statistical maps, derived from path analysis, revealed patterns of heritability, and their significance, in 3D. Path coefficients for the 'ACE' model that best fitted the data indicated significant contributions from genetic factors (A = 7.3%), common environment (C = 38.9%) and unique environment (E = 53.8%) to lateral ventricular volume. Earlier-maturing occipital horn regions may also be more genetically influenced than later-maturing frontal regions. Maps visualized spatially-varying profiles of environmental versus genetic influences. The approach shows promise for automatically measuring gene-environment effects in large image databases.

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Head motion (HM) is a critical confounding factor in functional MRI. Here we investigate whether HM during resting state functional MRI (RS-fMRI) is influenced by genetic factors in a sample of 462 twins (65% fema≤ 101 MZ (monozygotic) and 130 DZ (dizygotic) twin pairs; mean age: 21 (SD=3.16), range 16-29). Heritability estimates for three HM components-mean translation (MT), maximum translation (MAXT) and mean rotation (MR)-ranged from 37 to 51%. We detected a significant common genetic influence on HM variability, with about two-thirds (genetic correlations range 0.76-1.00) of the variance shared between MR, MT and MAXT. A composite metric (HM-PC1), which aggregated these three, was also moderately heritable (h2=42%). Using a sub-sample (N=35) of the twins we confirmed that mean and maximum translational and rotational motions were consistent "traits" over repeated scans (r=0.53-0.59); reliability was even higher for the composite metric (r=0.66). In addition, phenotypic and cross-trait cross-twin correlations between HM and resting state functional connectivities (RS-FCs) with Brodmann areas (BA) 44 and 45, in which RS-FCs were found to be moderately heritable (BA44: h2-=0.23 (sd=0.041), BA45: h2-=0.26 (sd=0.061)), indicated that HM might not represent a major bias in genetic studies using FCs. Even so, the HM effect on FC was not completely eliminated after regression. HM may be a valuable endophenotype whose relationship with brain disorders remains to be elucidated.