885 resultados para mean-square error (MSE)


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The interactions between shear-free turbulence in two regions (denoted as + and − on either side of a nearly flat horizontal interface are shown here to be controlled by several mechanisms, which depend on the magnitudes of the ratios of the densities, ρ+/ρ−, and kinematic viscosities of the fluids, μ+/μ−, and the root mean square (r.m.s.) velocities of the turbulence, u0+/u0−, above and below the interface. This study focuses on gas–liquid interfaces so that ρ+/ρ− ≪ 1 and also on where turbulence is generated either above or below the interface so that u0+/u0− is either very large or very small. It is assumed that vertical buoyancy forces across the interface are much larger than internal forces so that the interface is nearly flat, and coupling between turbulence on either side of the interface is determined by viscous stresses. A formal linearized rapid-distortion analysis with viscous effects is developed by extending the previous study by Hunt & Graham (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 84, 1978, pp. 209–235) of shear-free turbulence near rigid plane boundaries. The physical processes accounted for in our model include both the blocking effect of the interface on normal components of the turbulence and the viscous coupling of the horizontal field across thin interfacial viscous boundary layers. The horizontal divergence in the perturbation velocity field in the viscous layer drives weak inviscid irrotational velocity fluctuations outside the viscous boundary layers in a mechanism analogous to Ekman pumping. The analysis shows the following. (i) The blocking effects are similar to those near rigid boundaries on each side of the interface, but through the action of the thin viscous layers above and below the interface, the horizontal and vertical velocity components differ from those near a rigid surface and are correlated or anti-correlated respectively. (ii) Because of the growth of the viscous layers on either side of the interface, the ratio uI/u0, where uI is the r.m.s. of the interfacial velocity fluctuations and u0 the r.m.s. of the homogeneous turbulence far from the interface, does not vary with time. If the turbulence is driven in the lower layer with ρ+/ρ− ≪ 1 and u0+/u0− ≪ 1, then uI/u0− ~ 1 when Re (=u0−L−/ν−) ≫ 1 and R = (ρ−/ρ+)(v−/v+)1/2 ≫ 1. If the turbulence is driven in the upper layer with ρ+/ρ− ≪ 1 and u0+/u0− ≫ 1, then uI/u0+ ~ 1/(1 + R). (iii) Nonlinear effects become significant over periods greater than Lagrangian time scales. When turbulence is generated in the lower layer, and the Reynolds number is high enough, motions in the upper viscous layer are turbulent. The horizontal vorticity tends to decrease, and the vertical vorticity of the eddies dominates their asymptotic structure. When turbulence is generated in the upper layer, and the Reynolds number is less than about 106–107, the fluctuations in the viscous layer do not become turbulent. Nonlinear processes at the interface increase the ratio uI/u0+ for sheared or shear-free turbulence in the gas above its linear value of uI/u0+ ~ 1/(1 + R) to (ρ+/ρ−)1/2 ~ 1/30 for air–water interfaces. This estimate agrees with the direct numerical simulation results from Lombardi, De Angelis & Bannerjee (Phys. Fluids, vol. 8, no. 6, 1996, pp. 1643–1665). Because the linear viscous–inertial coupling mechanism is still significant, the eddy motions on either side of the interface have a similar horizontal structure, although their vertical structure differs.

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Interference by siren background-noise with speech transmitted from radio equipment (3) of an emergency-service vehicle, is reduced by apparatus (1) that subtracts (43) an estimate nk of the correlated siren-noise component from the contaminated signal yk supplied by the cab-microphone (2). The estimate nk is computed by FIR (finite impulse response) filtering of a siren-reference signal xk supplied by a unit (4) from one or more microphones located on or near the siren, or from the electric waveform driving the siren. The filter-coefficients wk are adjusted according to an LMS (least mean square) adaptive algorithm that is applied to the correlated-noise component ek of the fed-back noise-reduced signal, so as to bring about iterative cancellation with close frequency-tracking, of the siren noise.

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We present molecular dynamics (MD) and slip-springs model simulations of the chain segmental dynamics in entangled linear polymer melts. The time-dependent behavior of the segmental orientation autocorrelation functions and mean-square segmental displacements are analyzed for both flexible and semiflexible chains, with particular attention paid to the scaling relations among these dynamic quantities. Effective combination of the two simulation methods at different coarse-graining levels allows us to explore the chain dynamics for chain lengths ranging from Z ≈ 2 to 90 entanglements. For a given chain length of Z ≈ 15, the time scales accessed span for more than 10 decades, covering all of the interesting relaxation regimes. The obtained time dependence of the monomer mean square displacements, g1(t), is in good agreement with the tube theory predictions. Results on the first- and second-order segmental orientation autocorrelation functions, C1(t) and C2(t), demonstrate a clear power law relationship of C2(t) C1(t)m with m = 3, 2, and 1 in the initial, free Rouse, and entangled (constrained Rouse) regimes, respectively. The return-to-origin hypothesis, which leads to inverse proportionality between the segmental orientation autocorrelation functions and g1(t) in the entangled regime, is convincingly verified by the simulation result of C1(t) g1(t)−1 t–1/4 in the constrained Rouse regime, where for well-entangled chains both C1(t) and g1(t) are rather insensitive to the constraint release effects. However, the second-order correlation function, C2(t), shows much stronger sensitivity to the constraint release effects and experiences a protracted crossover from the free Rouse to entangled regime. This crossover region extends for at least one decade in time longer than that of C1(t). The predicted time scaling behavior of C2(t) t–1/4 is observed in slip-springs simulations only at chain length of 90 entanglements, whereas shorter chains show higher scaling exponents. The reported simulation work can be applied to understand the observations of the NMR experiments.

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The ground-based Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) and NASA Aerosol Robotic Net- work (AERONET) routinely monitor clouds using zenith ra- diances at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Using the transmittance calculated from such measurements, we have developed a new retrieval method for cloud effective droplet size and conducted extensive tests for non-precipitating liquid water clouds. The underlying principle is to combine a liquid-water-absorbing wavelength (i.e., 1640 nm) with a non-water-absorbing wavelength for acquiring information on cloud droplet size and optical depth. For simulated stratocumulus clouds with liquid water path less than 300 g m−2 and horizontal resolution of 201 m, the retrieval method underestimates the mean effective radius by 0.8μm, with a root-mean-squared error of 1.7 μm and a relative deviation of 13%. For actual observations with a liquid water path less than 450 g m−2 at the ARM Oklahoma site during 2007– 2008, our 1.5-min-averaged retrievals are generally larger by around 1 μm than those from combined ground-based cloud radar and microwave radiometer at a 5-min temporal resolution. We also compared our retrievals to those from combined shortwave flux and microwave observations for relatively homogeneous clouds, showing that the bias between these two retrieval sets is negligible, but the error of 2.6 μm and the relative deviation of 22 % are larger than those found in our simulation case. Finally, the transmittance-based cloud effective droplet radii agree to better than 11 % with satellite observations and have a negative bias of 1 μm. Overall, the retrieval method provides reasonable cloud effective radius estimates, which can enhance the cloud products of both ARM and AERONET.

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A simple, dynamically consistent model of mixing and transport in Rossby-wave critical layers is obtained from the well-known Stewartson–Warn–Warn (SWW) solution of Rossby-wave critical-layer theory. The SWW solution is thought to be a useful conceptual model of Rossby-wave breaking in the stratosphere. Chaotic advection in the model is a consequence of the interaction between a stationary and a transient Rossby wave. Mixing and transport are characterized separately with a number of quantitative diagnostics (e.g. mean-square dispersion, lobe dynamics, and spectral moments), and with particular emphasis on the dynamics of the tracer field itself. The parameter dependences of the diagnostics are examined: transport tends to increase monotonically with increasing perturbation amplitude whereas mixing does not. The robustness of the results is investigated by stochastically perturbing the transient-wave phase speed. The two-wave chaotic advection model is contrasted with a stochastic single-wave model. It is shown that the effects of chaotic advection cannot be captured by stochasticity alone.

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The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite marks the commencement of dedicated global surface soil moisture missions, and the first mission to make passive microwave observations at L-band. On-orbit calibration is an essential part of the instrument calibration strategy, but on-board beam-filling targets are not practical for such large apertures. Therefore, areas to serve as vicarious calibration targets need to be identified. Such sites can only be identified through field experiments including both in situ and airborne measurements. For this purpose, two field experiments were performed in central Australia. Three areas are studied as follows: 1) Lake Eyre, a typically dry salt lake; 2) Wirrangula Hill, with sparse vegetation and a dense cover of surface rock; and 3) Simpson Desert, characterized by dry sand dunes. Of those sites, only Wirrangula Hill and the Simpson Desert are found to be potentially suitable targets, as they have a spatial variation in brightness temperatures of <4 K under normal conditions. However, some limitations are observed for the Simpson Desert, where a bias of 15 K in vertical and 20 K in horizontal polarization exists between model predictions and observations, suggesting a lack of understanding of the underlying physics in this environment. Subsequent comparison with model predictions indicates a SMOS bias of 5 K in vertical and 11 K in horizontal polarization, and an unbiased root mean square difference of 10 K in both polarizations for Wirrangula Hill. Most importantly, the SMOS observations show that the brightness temperature evolution is dominated by regular seasonal patterns and that precipitation events have only little impact.

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A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced. Our main contribution is to develop a recursive algorithm for the selection of significant kernels one at time using the minimum integrated square error (MISE) criterion for both kernel selection. The proposed approach is simple to implement and the associated computational cost is very low. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with competitive accuracy to existing kernel density estimators.

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Although difference-stationary (DS) and trend-stationary (TS) processes have been subject to considerable analysis, there are no direct comparisons for each being the data-generation process (DGP). We examine incorrect choice between these models for forecasting for both known and estimated parameters. Three sets of Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the analysis, to evaluate the biases in conventional standard errors when each model is mis-specified, compute the relative mean-square forecast errors of the two models for both DGPs, and investigate autocorrelated errors, so both models can better approximate the converse DGP. The outcomes are surprisingly different from established results.

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This paper uses appropriately modified information criteria to select models from the GARCH family, which are subsequently used for predicting US dollar exchange rate return volatility. The out of sample forecast accuracy of models chosen in this manner compares favourably on mean absolute error grounds, although less favourably on mean squared error grounds, with those generated by the commonly used GARCH(1, 1) model. An examination of the orders of models selected by the criteria reveals that (1, 1) models are typically selected less than 20% of the time.

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This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

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We study the orientational ordering on the surface of a sphere using Monte Carlo and Brownian dynamics simulations of rods interacting with an anisotropic potential. We restrict the orientations to the local tangent plane of the spherical surface and fix the position of each rod to be at a discrete point on the spherical surface. On the surface of a sphere, orientational ordering cannot be perfectly nematic due to the inevitable presence of defects. We find that the ground state of four +1/2 point defects is stable across a broad range of temperatures. We investigate the transition from disordered to ordered phase by decreasing the temperature and find a very smooth transition. We use fluctuations of the local directors to estimate the Frank elastic constant on the surface of a sphere and compare it to the planar case. We observe subdiffusive behavior in the mean square displacement of the defect cores and estimate their diffusion constants.

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Time series of global and regional mean Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies and Simple Kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Non-interpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979-2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic.

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Windstorms are a main feature of the European climate and exert strong socioeconomic impacts. Large effort has been made in developing and enhancing models to simulate the intensification of windstorms, resulting footprints, and associated impacts. Simulated wind or gust speeds usually differ from observations, as regional climate models have biases and cannot capture all local effects. An approach to adjust regional climate model (RCM) simulations of wind and wind gust toward observations is introduced. For this purpose, 100 windstorms are selected and observations of 173 (111) test sites of the German Weather Service are considered for wind (gust) speed. Theoretical Weibull distributions are fitted to observed and simulated wind and gust speeds, and the distribution parameters of the observations are interpolated onto the RCM computational grid. A probability mapping approach is applied to relate the distributions and to correct the modeled footprints. The results are not only achieved for single test sites but for an area-wide regular grid. The approach is validated using root-mean-square errors on event and site basis, documenting that the method is generally able to adjust the RCM output toward observations. For gust speeds, an improvement on 88 of 100 events and at about 64% of the test sites is reached. For wind, 99 of 100 improved events and ~84% improved sites can be obtained. This gives confidence on the potential of the introduced approach for many applications, in particular those considering wind data.

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In this paper we investigate the equilibrium properties of magnetic dipolar (ferro-) fluids and discuss finite-size effects originating from the use of different boundary conditions in computer simulations. Both periodic boundary conditions and a finite spherical box are studied. We demonstrate that periodic boundary conditions and subsequent use of Ewald sum to account for the long-range dipolar interactions lead to a much faster convergence (in terms of the number of investigated dipolar particles) of the magnetization curve and the initial susceptibility to their thermodynamic limits. Another unwanted effect of the simulations in a finite spherical box geometry is a considerable sensitivity to the container size. We further investigate the influence of the surface term in the Ewald sum-that is, due to the surrounding continuum with magnetic permeability mu(BC)-on the convergence properties of our observables and on the final results. The two different ways of evaluating the initial susceptibility, i.e., (1) by the magnetization response of the system to an applied field and (2) by the zero-field fluctuation of the mean-square dipole moment of the system, are compared in terms of speed and accuracy.

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Multiple alternating zonal jets are a ubiquitous feature of planetary atmospheres and oceans. However, most studies to date have focused on the special case of barotropic jets. Here, the dynamics of freely evolving baroclinic jets are investigated using a two-layer quasigeostrophic annulus model with sloping topography. In a suite of 15 numerical simulations, the baroclinic Rossby radius and baroclinic Rhines scale are sampled by varying the stratification and root-mean-square eddy velocity, respectively. Small-scale eddies in the initial state evolve through geostrophic turbulence and accelerate zonally as they grow in horizontal scale, first isotropically and then anisotropically. This process leads ultimately to the formation of jets, which take about 2500 rotation periods to equilibrate. The kinetic energy spectrum of the equilibrated baroclinic zonal flow steepens from a −3 power law at small scales to a −5 power law near the jet scale. The conditions most favorable for producing multiple alternating baroclinic jets are large baroclinic Rossby radius (i.e., strong stratification) and small baroclinic Rhines scale (i.e., weak root-mean-square eddy velocity). The baroclinic jet width is diagnosed objectively and found to be 2.2–2.8 times larger than the baroclinic Rhines scale, with a best estimate of 2.5 times larger. This finding suggests that Rossby wave motions must be moving at speeds of approximately 6 times the turbulent eddy velocity in order to be capable of arresting the isotropic inverse energy cascade.