Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Vermiculite improves early development and survival of low chill stone-fruit embryos rescued in vitro

There are many reports of efficient embryo germination and the method has been optimized to suit subtropical low chill genotypes. However the subsequent growth, vigor, and ability of germinated embryos to develop and survive acclimatization is rarely reported. Many germinated embryos do not survive acclimatization, develop slowly, or fail to develop normally. Methods to improve plant development from in vitro embryo cultures are needed to improve the number of plants that survive to be useful in breeding programs. This paper describes an improved method of embryo rescue that significantly increases embryo shoot and root development that leads to increased plant survival. Four treatments: Woody Plant Media (WPM) solidified with agar, vermiculite with liquid WPM, vermiculite with WPM plus agar, and conventional stratification, were evaluated for embryo growth and subsequent plantlet development and survival for two low-chill peach and one low-chill nectarine cultivar. Highly significant improvements were found for shoot and root development of seedlings germinated in vermiculite based media compared to embryos germinated in conventional agar-based media. Vermiculite with WPM and agar improved plantlet growth subsequent to in vitro culture and significantly increased survival of germinated embryos resulting in more plants reaching the field.

Losses of nitrogen in surface runoff from a plantation horticulture farm in coastal Queensland, Australia.

Surface losses of nitrogen from horticulture farms in coastal Queensland, Australia, may have the potential to eutrophy sensitive coastal marine habitats nearby. A case-study of the potential extent of such losses was investigated in a coastal macadamia plantation. Nitrogen losses were quantified in 5 consecutive runoff events during the 13-month study. Irrigation did not contribute to surface flows. Runoff was generated by storms at combined intensities and durations that were 20–40 mm/h for >9 min. These intensities and durations were within expected short-term (1 year) and long-term (up to 20 years) frequencies of rainfall in the study area. Surface flow volumes were 5.3 ± 1.1% of the episodic rainfall generated by such storms. Therefore, the largest part of each rainfall event was attributed to infiltration and drainage in this farm soil (Kandosol). The estimated annual loss of total nitrogen in runoff was 0.26 kg N/ha.year, representing a minimal loading of nitrogen in surface runoff when compared to other studies. The weighted average concentrations of total sediment nitrogen (TSN) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) generated in the farm runoff were 2.81 ± 0.77% N and 1.11 ± 0.27 mg N/L, respectively. These concentrations were considerably greater than ambient levels in an adjoining catchment waterway. Concentrations of TSN and TDN in the waterway were 0.11 ± 0.02% N and 0.50 ± 0.09 mg N/L, respectively. The steep concentration gradient of TSN and TDN between the farm runoff and the waterway demonstrated the occurrence of nutrient loading from the farming landscapes to the waterway. The TDN levels in the stream exceeded the current specified threshold of 0.2–0.3 mg N/L for eutrophication of such a waterway. Therefore, while the estimate of annual loading of N from runoff losses was comparatively low, it was evident that the stream catchment and associated agricultural land uses were already characterised by significant nitrogen loadings that pose eutrophication risks. The reported levels of nitrogen and the proximity of such waterways (8 km) to the coastline may have also have implications for the nearshore (oligotrophic) marine environment during periods of turbulent flow.

Low-frequency dielectric constant measurements in the critical polar + non-polar binary liquid system: Methanol + n-heptane

The low-frequency (5–100 kHz) dielectric constant ε has been measured in the temperature range 7 × 10−5 < T = (T − Tc)/Tc < 8 × 10−2. Near Tc an exponent ≈0.11 characterizes the power law behaviour of dε/dt consistent with the theoretically predicted t−α singularity. However, over the full range of t an exponent ≈0.35 is obtained.

Low temperature electrical transport properties of carbon matrix containing iron nanoparticles

We present a comparative study of the low temperature electrical transport properties of the carbon matrix containing iron nanoparticles and the films. The conductivity of the nanoparticles located just below the metal-insulator transition exhibits metallic behavior with a logarithmic temperature dependence over a large temperature interval. The zero-field conductivity and the negative magnetoresistance, showing a characteristic upturn at liquid helium temperature, are consistently explained by incorporating the Kondo relation and the two dimensional electron-electron interaction. The films, in contrast, exhibit a crossover of the conductivity from power-law dependence at high temperatures to an activated hopping law dependence in the low temperature region. The transition is attributed to changes in the energy dependence of the density of states near the Fermi level. The observed magnetoresistance is discussed in terms of quantum interference effect on a three-dimensional variable range hopping mechanism.

Low cycle fatigue behaviour of a low interstitial Ni-base superalloy

The low cycle fatigue behaviour of precipitation strengthened nickel-base superalloy 720Li containing a low concentration of interstitial carbon and boron was studied at 25, 400 and 650 degrees C. Cyclic stress response at all temperatures was stable under fully reversed constant total strain amplitude (Delta epsilon/2) when Delta epsilon/2 <= 0.6%. At Delta epsilon/2 > 0.6%, cyclic hardening was followed by softening, until fracture at 25 and 650 degrees C. At 400 degrees C, however, cyclic stress plateaued after initial hardening. Dislocation-dislocation interactions and precipitate shearing were the micromechanisms responsible for the cyclic hardening and softening, respectively. The number of reversals to failure vs. plastic strain amplitude plot exhibits a bilinear Coffin-Manson relation. Transmission electron microscopy substructures revealed that planar slip was the major deformation mode under the conditions examined. However, differences in its distribution were observed to be the cause for the bilinearity in fatigue lives. The presence of fine deformation twins at low Delta epsilon/2 at 650 degrees C suggests the role of twinning in homogenization of cyclic deformation.

Low chill stonefruit information kit. Agrilink, your growing guide to better farming series

Each Agrilink kit has been designed to be both comprehensive and practical. As the kits are arranged to answer questions of increasing complexity, they are useful references for both new and experienced producers of specific crops. Agrilink integrates the technology of horticultural production with the management of horticultural enterprises. REPRINT INFORMATION - PLEASE READ! For updated information please call 13 25 23 or visit the website www.deedi.qld.gov.au (Select: Queensland Industries – Agriculture link) This publication has been reprinted as a digital book without any changes to the content published in 1999. We advise readers to take particular note of the areas most likely to be out-of-date and so requiring further research: see detailed information on first page of the kit. Even with these limitations we believe this information kit provides important and valuable information for intending and existing growers. This publication was last revised in 1998. The information is not current and the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed by the State of Queensland. This information has been made available to assist users to identify issues involved in the production of low chill stonefruit. This information is not to be used or relied upon by users for any purpose which may expose the user or any other person to loss or damage. Users should conduct their own inquiries and rely on their own independent professional advice. While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained in this publication.

Ellen Bernkopf nee Catzenstein pumping water outdoors; Ascona, Switzerland. Portraits Women

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Influence of the electric field on the low-temperature thermal decomposition of ammonium perchlorate/polystyrene propellant

An electric field (100 V/cm at 230°C and 150°C) has been applied to ammonium perchlorate (AP)/polystyrene (PS) propellant mixtures in order to understand the low temperature decomposition behavior of the propellant. The charge-carrying species is anionic in nature at 230°C, which could be ClO4−, but is cationic at 150°C, which could be either NH4+ or H+. These results are parallel to that observed for pure ammonium perchlorate (AP) pellets [1]. The burning rate (r' ) of the propellant was found to follow the same trend as that for the thermal decomposition of the propellant on application of an electric field. At 150°C Image was higher at the −ve electrode than at the +ve electrode, but at 230°C just the opposite was observed. Kinetic studies have confirmed that the decomposition of the orthorhombic AP follows two mechanism corresponding to E = 30 kcal mol−1 (180–230°C) and E = 15 kcal mol−1 (150–180°C).

A criterion for existence of low frequency pure surface magnetoplasmon modes in the Faraday configuration

The low frequency surface magnetoplasmon-type polaritons in the Faraday configuration will propagate as generalized surface modes if 4ε∞/(ε∞ − 1)2 greater-or-equal, slanted μ2 and as pure surface modes if this inequality is reversed. The possibility of using the low frequency surface waves as a suitable probe for measuring the carrier concentration of a given sample is discussed.

Associations with low rates of postpartum glucose screening after gestational diabetes among Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian women

OBJECTIVES To explore factors associated with postpartum glucose screening among women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM). METHODS A retrospective study using linked records from women with GDM who gave birth at Cairns Hospital in Far North Queensland, Australia, from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2010. RESULTS The rates of postpartum Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) screening, while having increased significantly among both Indigenous* and non-Indigenous women from 2004 to 2010 (HR 1.15 per year, 95%CI 1.08-1.22, p<0.0001), remain low, particularly among Indigenous women (10% versus 27%, respectively at six months postpartum). Indigenous women in Cairns had a longer time to postpartum OGTT than Indigenous women in remote areas (HR 0.58, 0.38-0.71, p=0.01). Non-Indigenous women had a longer time to postpartum OGTT if they: were born in Australia (HR 0.76, 0.59-1.00, 0.05); were aged <25 years (HR 0.45, 0.23-0.89, p=0.02); had parity >5 (HR 0.33, 0.12-0.90, p=0.03); smoked (HR 0.48, 0.31-0.76, p=0.001); and did not breastfeed (HR 0.09, 0.01-0.64, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS Postpartum diabetes screening rates following GDM in Far North Queensland are low, particularly among Indigenous women, with lower rates seen in the regional centre; and among non-Indigenous women with indicators of low socioeconomic status. IMPLICATIONS Strategies are urgently needed to improve postpartum diabetes screening after GDM that reach women most at risk.

Low-temperature preparation of fine-particle cobaltites

A novel solid-solution precursor method for the preparation of fine-particle cobaltites at low temperatures has been described. The precursors, hydrazinium metal hydrazine carboxylate hydrates, N2H5M1/3Co2/3(N2H3COO)3 · H2O, where M = Mg, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, and Zn, decompose in air <250°C to yield corresponding metal cobaltites, MCo2O4. Formation of cobaltites has been confirmed by thermogravimetry (TG) weight loss, IR, and X-ray diffraction. Combustion of the precursor in air yields fine-particle cobaltites with surface areas in the range of 12–115 m2g−1 and particle sizes of 1–40 μm. Low decomposition temperatures of the precursors accompanied by the evolution of large amounts of gases appear to control the particle size of the cobaltites.

Fractional power dependence of rate on activation energy for reactions with very low internal barriers

The dynamics of reactions with low internal barriers are studied both analytically and numerically for two different models. Exact expressions for the average rate,kI, are obtained by solving the associated first passage time problems. Both the average rate constant, kI, and the numerically calculated long-time rate constant, kL, show a fractional power law dependence on the barrier height for very low barriers. The crossover of the reaction dynamics from low to high barrier is investigated.