Digital image analysis as a tool to estimate legume contributions in legume-grass swards

Summary: Productivity and forage quality of legume-grass swards are important factors for successful arable farming in both organic and conventional farming systems. For these objectives the botanical composition of the swards is of particular importance, especially, the content of legumes due to their ability to fix airborne nitrogen. As it can vary considerably within a field, a non-destructive detection method while doing other tasks would facilitate a more targeted sward management and could predict the nitrogen supply of the soil for the subsequent crop. This study was undertaken to explore the potential of digital image analysis (DIA) for a non destructive prediction of legume dry matter (DM) contribution of legume-grass mixtures. For this purpose an experiment was conducted in a greenhouse, comprising a sample size of 64 experimental swards such as pure swards of red clover (Trifolium pratense L.), white clover (Trifolium repens L.) and lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) as well as binary mixtures of each legume with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.). Growth stages ranged from tillering to heading and the proportion of legumes from 0 to 80 %. Based on digital sward images three steps were considered in order to estimate the legume contribution (% of DM): i) The development of a digital image analysis (DIA) procedure in order to estimate legume coverage (% of area). ii) The description of the relationship between legume coverage (% area) and legume contribution (% of DM) derived from digital analysis of legume coverage related to the green area in a digital image. iii) The estimation of the legume DM contribution with the findings of i) and ii). i) In order to evaluate the most suitable approach for the estimation of legume coverage by means of DIA different tools were tested. Morphological operators such as erode and dilate support the differentiation of objects of different shape by shrinking and dilating objects (Soille, 1999). When applied to digital images of legume-grass mixtures thin grass leaves were removed whereas rounder clover leaves were left. After this process legume leaves were identified by threshold segmentation. The segmentation of greyscale images turned out to be not applicable since the segmentation between legumes and bare soil failed. The advanced procedure comprising morphological operators and HSL colour information could determine bare soil areas in young and open swards very accurately. Also legume specific HSL thresholds allowed for precise estimations of legume coverage across a wide range from 11.8 - 72.4 %. Based on this legume specific DIA procedure estimated legume coverage showed good correlations with the measured values across the whole range of sward ages (R2 0.96, SE 4.7 %). A wide range of form parameters (i.e. size, breadth, rectangularity, and circularity of areas) was tested across all sward types, but none did improve prediction accuracy of legume coverage significantly. ii) Using measured reference data of legume coverage and contribution, in a first approach a common relationship based on all three legumes and sward ages of 35, 49 and 63 days was found with R2 0.90. This relationship was improved by a legume-specific approach of only 49- and 63-d old swards (R2 0.94, 0.96 and 0.97 for red clover, white clover, and lucerne, respectively) since differing structural attributes of the legume species influence the relationship between these two parameters. In a second approach biomass was included in the model in order to allow for different structures of swards of different ages. Hence, a model was developed, providing a close look on the relationship between legume coverage in binary legume-ryegrass communities and the legume contribution: At the same level of legume coverage, legume contribution decreased with increased total biomass. This phenomenon may be caused by more non-leguminous biomass covered by legume leaves at high levels of total biomass. Additionally, values of legume contribution and coverage were transformed to the logit-scale in order to avoid problems with heteroscedasticity and negative predictions. The resulting relationships between the measured legume contribution and the calculated legume contribution indicated a high model accuracy for all legume species (R2 0.93, 0.97, 0.98 with SE 4.81, 3.22, 3.07 % of DM for red clover, white clover, and lucerne swards, respectively). The validation of the model by using digital images collected over field grown swards with biomass ranges considering the scope of the model shows, that the model is able to predict legume contribution for most common legume-grass swards (Frame, 1992; Ledgard and Steele, 1992; Loges, 1998). iii) An advanced procedure for the determination of legume DM contribution by DIA is suggested, which comprises the inclusion of morphological operators and HSL colour information in the analysis of images and which applies an advanced function to predict legume DM contribution from legume coverage by considering total sward biomass. Low residuals between measured and calculated values of legume dry matter contribution were found for the separate legume species (R2 0.90, 0.94, 0.93 with SE 5.89, 4.31, 5.52 % of DM for red clover, white clover, and lucerne swards, respectively). The introduced DIA procedure provides a rapid and precise estimation of legume DM contribution for different legume species across a wide range of sward ages. Further research is needed in order to adapt the procedure to field scale, dealing with differing light effects and potentially higher swards. The integration of total biomass into the model for determining legume contribution does not necessarily reduce its applicability in practice as a combined estimation of total biomass and legume coverage by field spectroscopy (Biewer et al. 2009) and DIA, respectively, may allow for an accurate prediction of the legume contribution in legume-grass mixtures.

Attitudes and behaviour towards food attributes and organic food – a triangular methodological investigation of occasional organic consumers

Organic food is increasingly available in the conventional food retail, where organic products are offered alongside with various other types of products and compete mainly with conventional and the so-called conventional-plus products. The latter are conventional products displaying particular quality attributes on the product packaging, such as ‘no artificial additives’, or ‘from animal welfare husbandry’. Often, these quality attributes also apply to organic products. Occasional organic consumers might prefer such conventional-plus alternatives that are perceived to be ‘between’ organic and conventional products. The overall objective of this PhD thesis was to provide information about the segment of occasional organic consumers. In particular, the thesis focussed on consumer perceptions and attitudes towards the quality of, and preferences for, organic, conventional and conventional-plus products in two countries: Germany and Switzerland. To achieve these objectives, qualitative and quantitative consumer research was combined in order to explore occasional organic consumers’ perceptions and attitudes as well as to observe their preferences and buying behaviour regarding different types of food products: organic, conventional and conventional-plus products. The qualitative research showed that, depending on single criteria, organic production was both positively as well as negatively assessed by consumers. Consumer perception of organic food was found to be highly selective and primarily focussed on the final stage of the particular production process. A major problem is that consumers are still mostly unfamiliar with factors associated with organic production, have a lack of confidence, and often confuse organic with conventional products. Besides this, consumer expectations of organic products are different from the expectations of conventional products. The quantitative research revealed that attitudes strongly determine consumers’ preferences for organic, conventional and conventional-plus products. Consumer attitudes tended to differ more between organic and conventional choices rather than conventional-plus and conventional choices. Furthermore, occasional organic consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences. They can be grouped into two segments: the consumers in one segment were less price sensitive and preferred organic products. The consumers in the other segment were more price sensitive and rather preferred conventional-plus or conventional products. To conclude, given the selective and subjective nature of consumer perception and the strong focus of consumer perception on the final stage of the food production process, specific additional values of organic farming should be communicated in clear and catchy messages. At the same time, these messages should be particularly focussed on the final stage of organic food production. The communication of specific added values in relation with organic products to improve the perceived price-performance-ratio is important since conventional-plus products represent an interesting alternative particularly for price sensitive occasional organic consumers. Besides this, it is important to strengthen affirmative consumer attitudes towards organic production. Therefore, policy support should emphasise on long-term communication campaigns and education programmes to increase the consumer awareness and knowledge of organic food and farming. Since consumers expect that organic food is regionally or at least domestically produced while they less accept organic imports, policy support of domestic and regional producers is a crucial measure to fill the current gap between the increasing consumer demand of organic food and the stagnation of the domestic and regional organic food supply.

Short-term poverty dynamics of rural households: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

The understanding of poverty dynamics is crucial for the design of appropriate poverty reduction strategies. Taking the case of Central Sulawesi, we investigate the determinants of both chronic and transitory poverty using data from 264 randomly selected households interviewed in 2005 and 2007. Regarding the US 1$/day poverty line, the headcount index declined from 19.3% in 2005 to 18.2% in 2007. However, we observed an increasing number of people living on less than US 2$/day expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP). The results of the estimated multinomial logit model applied in this study indicate that a lack of non-agricultural employment opportunities and low endowment of social capital are major determinants of chronic as well as transitory poverty in this province of Indonesia. These results are used to draw policy conclusions with respect to the alleviation of transitory and chronic poverty in Central Sulawesi.

Factors affecting farmers’ decisions on utilization of rice straw compost in Northeastern Thailand

Rice straw is used in Northeastern Thailand as an alternative to organic fertilizer for crop production. This enables farmers to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers which leads to a decrease in production costs. In spite of the beneficial effects in agricultural production, rice straw compost cannot be produced in large amounts because the burning of rice straws is a common farming practice. The decisions of farmers who use rice straw compost have been investigated by interviewing 120 households belonging to the members of an organic fertilizer user group using a household questionnaire. The study was conducted to evaluate the factors that affect the use of rice straw compost in Khon Kaen Province in Northeastern Thailand. Results of the logit model showed that the farmers’ education, number of rice straw compost trainings in which the farmer participated, lack of knowledge about technology, insufficient labour and difficulty in making rice straw compost had a significant impact on the farmer’s decision to use rice straw compost. Difficulty in making rice straw compost appeared to be the root cause because the procedure of making rice straw compost is complex and labour intensive. Repeated trainings thus, will have a positive and significant influence on farmers’ adoption of the technology. Training provides more knowledge and will presumably change the perception of the farmers towards new technologies and the awareness of positive effects of rice straw compost utilization.

A tale of two logits, compositional data analysis and zero observations

The application of compositional data analysis through log ratio trans- formations corresponds to a multinomial logit model for the shares themselves. This model is characterized by the property of Independence of Irrelevant Alter- natives (IIA). IIA states that the odds ratio in this case the ratio of shares is invariant to the addition or deletion of outcomes to the problem. It is exactly this invariance of the ratio that underlies the commonly used zero replacement procedure in compositional data analysis. In this paper we investigate using the nested logit model that does not embody IIA and an associated zero replacement procedure and compare its performance with that of the more usual approach of using the multinomial logit model. Our comparisons exploit a data set that com- bines voting data by electoral division with corresponding census data for each division for the 2001 Federal election in Australia

Reaction times as a measure of uncertainty. 'Tiempo de reacci??n como una medida de incertidumbre'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.

De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).

Determinantes del estado de salud en Colombia y su impacto según área urbana y rural comparación entre 1997 y 2003

Este trabajo avanza en la identificación de los determinantes del estado de salud distinguiendo su impacto entre el área urbana y rural, y comparándolo entre 1997 y2003 después de la mayor recesión económica que Colombia haya experimentado.

salud financiera y riesgo en los estados financieros de la empresa avianca del sector aeronautico

La globalización y la competitividad como realidad de las empresas, implica que los gerentes preparen a sus empresas de la mejor manera para sobrevivir en este mundo tan inestable y cambiante. El primer paso consta de investigar y medir como se encuentra la empresa en cada uno de sus componentes, tales como recurso humano, mercadeo, logística, operación y por último y más importante las finanzas. El conocimiento de salud financiera y de los riesgos asociados a la actividad de las empresas, les permitirá a los gerentes tomar las decisiones correctas para ser rentables y perdurables en el mundo de los negocios inmerso en la globalización y competitividad. Esta apreciación es pertinente en Avianca S.A. esto teniendo en cuenta su progreso y evolución desde su primer vuelo el 5 de diciembre de 1919 comercial, hasta hoy cuando cotiza en la bolsa de Nueva York. Se realizó un análisis de tipo descriptivo, acompañado de la aplicación de ratios y nomenclaturas, dando lugar a establecer la salud financiera y los riesgos, no solo de Avianca sino también del sector aeronáutico. Como resultado se obtuvo que el sector aeronáutico sea financieramente saludable en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo su salud financiera se ve comprometida por los riegos asociados al sector y a la actividad desarrollada.

Incremento de la salud financiera mediante la utilización de la relación estratégica comunitaria y marketing.

Debido a las crisis mundiales, la perdurabilidad empresarial se ha convertido en la primera preocupación de las organizaciones, puesto que los problemas económicos en otros países pueden generar un efecto negativo en las condiciones del mercado doméstico, que junto con el entorno empresarial complejo y dinámico en el que se deben desempeñar las empresas hoy en día gracias a la globalización, sumado al aumento en la competitividad nacional e internacional, la perdurabilidad de las empresas se está viendo seriamente comprometida. Lo anterior, ha llevado a las empresas a buscar nuevas formas de mejorar su salud financiera. Para medir la salud financiera empresarial, se pueden usar distintos indicadores como lo es el flujo de caja que está asociado con la rentabilidad, el patrimonio que está asociado a las dificultades financieras, entre otros, o a través de varios modelos de bancarrota, los cuales, por medio de un conjunto de ratios financieros, reflejan el estado actual de la organización y su probabilidad de fracaso en el futuro. Las estrategias comunitarias y el marketing permiten incrementar la salud financiera de las empresas a través de la orientación al cliente y el establecimiento de relaciones gana-gana a largo plazo con las diferentes comunidades con las que se relaciona la organización.

Determinants of demand for antenatal care in Colombia

Even though antenatal care is universally regarded as important, determinants of demand for antenatal care have not been widely studied. Evidence concerning which and how socioeconomic conditions influence whether a pregnant woman attends or not at least one antenatal consultation or how these factors affect the absences to antenatal consultations is very limited. In order to generate this evidence, a two-stage analysis was performed with data from the Demographic and Health Survey carried out by Profamilia in Colombia during 2005. The first stage was run as a logit model showing the marginal effects on the probability of attending the first visit and an ordinary least squares model was performed for the second stage. It was found that mothers living in the pacific region as well as young mothers seem to have a lower probability of attending the first visit but these factors are not related to the number of absences to antenatal consultation once the first visit has been achieved. The effect of health insurance was surprising because of the differing effects that the health insurers showed. Some familiar and personal conditions such as willingness to have the last children and number of previous children, demonstrated to be important in the determination of demand. The effect of mother’s educational attainment was proved as important whereas the father’s educational achievement was not. This paper provides some elements for policy making in order to increase the demand inducement of antenatal care, as well as stimulating research on demand for specific issues on health.

Estimaciones de los determinantes de los ingresos laborales en Colombia con consideraciones diferenciales para asalariados y cuenta propia

La literatura sobre determinantes de los ingresos laborales ha evolucionado en sus fundamentos teóricos, metodológicos y estimaciones empíricas. Colombia no ha sido ajena a este proceso, pero su evolución, notoria en fertilidad, ha venido relajándose en rigor conceptual: se tiende a considerar a los cuenta propia y asalariados como categorías relativamente semejantes. Para mostrar el efecto de dicha relajación realizamos estimaciones conjuntas de determinantes del ingreso laboral para ocupados asalariados y cuenta propia, y luego las contrastamos con estimaciones más detalladas y desagregadas ilustrando los sesgos efectivos que se generan si no se tienen en cuenta las características laborales de los ocupados cuenta propia y asalariado.

Health insurance as a strategy for access : Streamlined facts of the Colombian Health Care Reform

La reforma colombiana al sistema de salud (Ley 100 de 1993) estableció, como estrategia para facilitar el acceso, la universalidad de un seguro de salud que se adquiere mediante la cotización en el régimen contributivo o mediante la afiliación gratuita al régimen subsidiado, con la meta de cubrir a toda la población con un plan de beneficios único que comprende servicios de todos los niveles de atención. En el documento se analizan los principales hechos estilizados de la reforma en cuanto a cobertura del seguro y acceso y, mediante modelos logit, se estiman los determinantes de la afiliación y del acceso, con datos de las encuestas de calidad de vida de 1997 y 2003. Se destaca que la cobertura pasó del 20% de la población en 1993 al 60% en 2004, aunque parece imposible alcanzar la universalidad; la estructura y evolución de la cobertura muestran que los dos regímenes son complementarios, de modo que mientras el contributivo tiene mayor presencia en las ciudades y entre la población con empleo formal, el subsidiado tiene mayor peso entre la población rural y con bajos niveles de ingresos; por otra parte, el seguro tiene ventajas para la población subsidiada, con una mayor probabilidad de utilización de servicios, aunque el plan es inferior al del contributivo y existen barreras para el acceso.

Inserción de la migración interna y el desplazamiento forzado en el mercado laboral urbano de Colombia. 2001-2005

Los resultados de la inserción económica de migrantes recientes y de desplazados forzados en el mercado laboral de las 10 principales ciudades de Colombia se analizan utilizando datos de la Encuesta Continua de Hogares. Adaptamos el marco teórico de selección del migrante internacional de Borjas (1982, 1985, 1987, 1990) al caso de la migración interna voluntaria e involuntaria y mediante estimaciones de modelos Logit de acceso al empleo y de ecuaciones mincerianas, ilustramos el proceso de selección positiva de los migrantes recientes y sustentamos empíricamente los resultados teóricos esperados de la inserción laboral del desplazado forzado al mercado laboral urbano, encontrando que exhibe menor probabilidad de acceso al empleo que el migrante económico y que el nativo, y padece un diferencial salarial explicado en gran parte por su condición de migrante forzado, lo cual ofrece sustento al efecto teórico esperado de una decisión exógena de migrar sugerido por Borjas (1987).