Improving some thermodynamic consistency tests for VLE data evaluation

Thermodynamics Conference 2013 (Statistical Mechanics and Thermodynamics Group of the Royal Society of Chemistry), The University of Manchester, 3-6 September 2013.

Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Total organic carbon in surface sediments of the Ob and Yenisei estuaries and adjacent coastal areas, appendix 1

Two main mechanisms are controlling the accumulation of organic matter in the sediments of the Kara Sea. The large rivers Ob and Yenisei supply significant quantities of freshwater onto the shelf (Lisitsyn and Vinogradov, 1995; Bobrovitskaya et al., 1996; Johnson et al., 1997) and deliver terrigenous organie matter and aquatic algae. Additionally, marine organic matter is produced in the water column. In order to distinguish between the different sources of the organic material maceral analysis, organic-geochemical bulk Parameters and biomarkers (short- and long-chain D-alkanes, fatty acids and pigments) were used to determine the quality (marine vs. terrigenous) and quantity of the organic carbon fraction in the surface sediments taken during the 28th cruise of RV Akademik Boris Petrov (Matthiessen and Stepanets, 1998) (Fig. 1). Previous organic-geochemical investigations (i.e., total organic-carbon content (TOC), hydrogen indices (Hl), CIN-ratios) indicate the importance of terrigenous input of organic matter (Galimov et al., 1996; Stein, 1996). Studies of lipid biomarkers in surface sediments in the Ob estuary show also a predominance of terrestrial constituents and an increase in planktonogenic and bacterial lipids further offshore (Belyaeva and Eglinton, 1997). In complex systems such as the Eurasian continental margin characterized by high input of terrestriallaquatic organic matter and strong seasonal variation in sea-ice Cover and primary productivity, the Interpretation of the organic geochemical data is much more complicated and restricted in comparison to similar data Sets from low-latitude open-ocean environments (Fahl and Stein, 1998). Microscopical studies (maceral analysisl palynology), however, allow a direct visual inspection of the particulate organic matter and allow to differentiate particles of different biological sources. Thus, a combination of both methods as shown in this study, yields a more precise identification of organic-carbon sources.