Decision Making by Credal Nets

Credal nets are probabilistic graphical models which extend Bayesian nets to cope with sets of distributions. This feature makes the model particularly suited for the implementation of classifiers and knowledge-based systems. When working with sets of (instead of single) probability distributions, the identification of the optimal option can be based on different criteria, some of them eventually leading to multiple choices. Yet, most of the inference algorithms for credal nets are designed to compute only the bounds of the posterior probabilities. This prevents some of the existing criteria from being used. To overcome this limitation, we present two simple transformations for credal nets which make it possible to compute decisions based on the maximality and E-admissibility criteria without any modification in the inference algorithms. We also prove that these decision problems have the same complexity of standard inference, being NP^PP-hard for general credal nets and NP-hard for polytrees.

Rapid detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection in critical care using multipathogen real-time polymerase chain reaction technology: a diagnostic accuracy study and systematic review

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast (Roche Diagnostics GmBH, Mannheim, Germany) is a multipathogen probe-based system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection. As background to this study, we report a systematic review of Phase III diagnostic accuracy studies of SeptiFast, which reveals uncertainty about its likely clinical utility based on widespread evidence of deficiencies in study design and reporting with a high risk of bias. 

Objective: Determine the accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR for the detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection, against standard microbiological culture. 

Design: Prospective multicentre Phase III clinical diagnostic accuracy study using the standards for the reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies criteria. 

Setting: Critical care departments within NHS hospitals in the north-west of England. 

Participants: Adult patients requiring blood culture (BC) when developing new signs of systemic inflammation. 

Main outcome measures: SeptiFast real-time PCR results at species/genus level compared with microbiological culture in association with independent adjudication of infection. Metrics of diagnostic accuracy were derived including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values, with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Latent class analysis was used to explore the diagnostic performance of culture as a reference standard. 

Results: Of 1006 new patient episodes of systemic inflammation in 853 patients, 922 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and provided sufficient information for analysis. Index test assay failure occurred on 69 (7%) occasions. Adult patients had been exposed to a median of 8 days (interquartile range 4–16 days) of hospital care, had high levels of organ support activities and recent antibiotic exposure. SeptiFast real-time PCR, when compared with culture-proven bloodstream infection at species/genus level, had better specificity (85.8%, 95% CI 83.3% to 88.1%) than sensitivity (50%, 95% CI 39.1% to 60.8%). When compared with pooled diagnostic metrics derived from our systematic review, our clinical study revealed lower test accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR, mainly as a result of low diagnostic sensitivity. There was a low prevalence of BC-proven pathogens in these patients (9.2%, 95% CI 7.4% to 11.2%) such that the post-test probabilities of both a positive (26.3%, 95% CI 19.8% to 33.7%) and a negative SeptiFast test (5.6%, 95% CI 4.1% to 7.4%) indicate the potential limitations of this technology in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, latent class analysis indicates that BC has a low sensitivity, questioning its relevance as a reference test in this setting. Using this analysis approach, the sensitivity of the SeptiFast test was low but also appeared significantly better than BC. Blood samples identified as positive by either culture or SeptiFast real-time PCR were associated with a high probability (> 95%) of infection, indicating higher diagnostic rule-in utility than was apparent using conventional analyses of diagnostic accuracy. 

Conclusion: SeptiFast real-time PCR on blood samples may have rapid rule-in utility for the diagnosis of health-care-associated bloodstream infection but the lack of sensitivity is a significant limiting factor. Innovations aimed at improved diagnostic sensitivity of real-time PCR in this setting are urgently required. Future work recommendations include technology developments to improve the efficiency of pathogen DNA extraction and the capacity to detect a much broader range of pathogens and drug resistance genes and the application of new statistical approaches able to more reliably assess test performance in situation where the reference standard (e.g. blood culture in the setting of high antimicrobial use) is prone to error.

Chaotropicity: a key factor in product tolerance of biofuel-producing microorganisms

Fermentation products can chaotropically disorder macromolecular systems and induce oxidative stress, thus inhibiting biofuel production. Recently, the chaotropic activities of ethanol, butanol and vanillin have been quantified (5.93, 37.4, 174kJkg(-1)m(-1) respectively). Use of low temperatures and/or stabilizing (kosmotropic) substances, and other approaches, can reduce, neutralize or circumvent product-chaotropicity. However, there may be limits to the alcohol concentrations that cells can tolerate; e.g. for ethanol tolerance in the most robust Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains, these are close to both the solubility limit (<25%, w/v ethanol) and the water-activity limit of the most xerotolerant strains (0.880). Nevertheless, knowledge-based strategies to mitigate or neutralize chaotropicity could lead to major improvements in rates of product formation and yields, and also therefore in the economics of biofuel production.

Application of Evidence Theory and Discounting Techniques to Aerospace Design

Critical decisions are made by decision-makers throughout
the life-cycle of large-scale projects. These decisions are crucial as they
have a direct impact upon the outcome and the success of projects. To aid
decision-makers in the decision making process we present an evidential
reasoning framework. This approach utilizes the Dezert-Smarandache
theory to fuse heterogeneous evidence sources that suffer from levels
of uncertainty, imprecision and conflicts to provide beliefs for decision
options. To analyze the impact of source reliability and priority upon
the decision making process, a reliability discounting technique and a
priority discounting technique, are applied. A maximal consistent subset
is constructed to aid in dening where discounting should be applied.
Application of the evidential reasoning framework is illustrated using a
case study based in the Aerospace domain.

Failure of a numerical quality assessment scale to identify potential risk of bias in a systematic review: a comparison study

BACKGROUND: Assessing methodological quality of primary studies is an essential component of systematic reviews. Following a systematic review which used a domain based system [United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF)] to assess methodological quality, a commonly used numerical rating scale (Downs and Black) was also used to evaluate the included studies and comparisons were made between quality ratings assigned using the two different methods. Both tools were used to assess the 20 randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials examining an exercise intervention for chronic musculoskeletal pain which were included in the review. Inter-rater reliability and levels of agreement were determined using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Influence of quality on pooled effect size was examined by calculating the between group standardized mean difference (SMD).

RESULTS: Inter-rater reliability indicated at least substantial levels of agreement for the USPSTF system (ICC 0.85; 95% CI 0.66, 0.94) and Downs and Black scale (ICC 0.94; 95% CI 0.84, 0.97). Overall level of agreement between tools (ICC 0.80; 95% CI 0.57, 0.92) was also good. However, the USPSTF system identified a number of studies (n = 3/20) as "poor" due to potential risks of bias. Analysis revealed substantially greater pooled effect sizes in these studies (SMD -2.51; 95% CI -4.21, -0.82) compared to those rated as "fair" (SMD -0.45; 95% CI -0.65, -0.25) or "good" (SMD -0.38; 95% CI -0.69, -0.08).

CONCLUSIONS: In this example, use of a numerical rating scale failed to identify studies at increased risk of bias, and could have potentially led to imprecise estimates of treatment effect. Although based on a small number of included studies within an existing systematic review, we found the domain based system provided a more structured framework by which qualitative decisions concerning overall quality could be made, and was useful for detecting potential sources of bias in the available evidence.

A Wii Bit of Fun: A Novel Platform to Deliver Effective Balance Training to Older Adults

BACKGROUND: Falls and fall-related injuries are symptomatic of an aging population. This study aimed to design, develop, and deliver a novel method of balance training, using an interactive game-based system to promote engagement, with the inclusion of older adults at both high and low risk of experiencing a fall.

STUDY DESIGN: Eighty-two older adults (65 years of age and older) were recruited from sheltered accommodation and local activity groups. Forty volunteers were randomly selected and received 5 weeks of balance game training (5 males, 35 females; mean, 77.18 ± 6.59 years), whereas the remaining control participants recorded levels of physical activity (20 males, 22 females; mean, 76.62 ± 7.28 years). The effect of balance game training was measured on levels of functional balance and balance confidence in individuals with and without quantifiable balance impairments.

RESULTS: Balance game training had a significant effect on levels of functional balance and balance confidence (P < 0.05). This was further demonstrated in participants who were deemed at high risk of falls. The overall pattern of results suggests the training program is effective and suitable for individuals at all levels of ability and may therefore play a role in reducing the risk of falls.

CONCLUSIONS: Commercial hardware can be modified to deliver engaging methods of effective balance assessment and training for the older population.

NanoStreams: Codesigned Microservers for Edge Analytics in Real Time

NanoStreams explores the design, implementation,and system software stack of micro-servers aimed at processingdata in-situ and in real time. These micro-servers can serve theemerging Edge computing ecosystem, namely the provisioningof advanced computational, storage, and networking capabilitynear data sources to achieve both low latency event processingand high throughput analytical processing, before consideringoff-loading some of this processing to high-capacity datacentres.NanoStreams explores a scale-out micro-server architecture thatcan achieve equivalent QoS to that of conventional rack-mountedservers for high-capacity datacentres, but with dramaticallyreduced form factors and power consumption. To this end,NanoStreams introduces novel solutions in programmable & con-figurable hardware accelerators, as well as the system softwarestack used to access, share, and program those accelerators.Our NanoStreams micro-server prototype has demonstrated 5.5×higher energy-efficiency than a standard Xeon Server. Simulationsof the microserver’s memory system extended to leveragehybrid DDR/NVM main memory indicated 5× higher energyefficiencythan a conventional DDR-based system. 

Erstellung wiederverwendbarer RDF-Geodaten mit Google Refine

Das Forschungsinformationssystem VIVO bietet als Linked-Data-basiertes System die Möglichkeit, Daten aus anderen Quellen wiederzuverwenden. In der Praxis kann man dabei auf Konvertierungsprobleme stoßen. Oft liegen Daten nur in tabellarischem Format vor, z.B. als CSV-Datei. Zur Konvertierung dieser Daten existieren verschiedene Werkzeuge, viele dieser Werkzeuge erfordern jedoch entweder spezielle technische Umgebungen (oft Linux-Systeme) oder sie sind in der Bedienung sehr anspruchsvoll. Im Artikel wird ein Workflow für die Konvertierung von Daten aus GeoNames für VIVO mit Google Refine beschrieben.

The LH5 model for data mining

In the age of E-Business many companies faced with massive data sets that must be analysed for gaining a competitive edge. these data sets are in many instances incomplete and quite often not of very high quality. Although statistical analysis can be used to pre-process these data sets, this technique has its own limitations. In this paper we are presenting a system - and its underlying model - that can be used to test the integrity of existing data and pre-process the data into clearer data sets to be mined. LH5 is a rule-based system, capable of self-learning and is illustrated using a medical data set.

Managing sales people strategically when promoting new products: Incorporating market orientation into a sales management control framework

Salespeople play a pivotal role in promoting new products. Therefore, managers need to know what control mechanism (i.e., output-based control, behavior-based control, or knowledge-based control) can improve their salespeople's new product sales performance. Furthermore, managers may be able to assist salespeople in performing better by having a strong market orientation. The literature has been inconsistent regarding the effects of sales management control mechanisms and has not yet incorporated market orientation into a sales management control framework. The current study surveyed 315 Taiwanese salespeople from publicly traded electronics companies with the aim of contributing to the sales management literature. The results show that sales management controls can directly affect salespeople's innovativeness, which, in turn, affects new product sales performance. However, sales management controls cannot affect performance directly. Furthermore, market orientation can positively moderate the relationship between salespeople's innovativeness and new product sales performance.

Argonauta Video Database. Data Agregation

This Database was generated during the development of a computer vision-based system for safety purposes in nuclear plants. The system aims at detecting and tracking people within a nuclear plant. Further details may be found in the related thesis. The research was developed through a cooperation between the Graduate Electrical Engineering Program of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (PEE/COPPE, UFRJ) and the Nuclear Engineering Institute of National Commission of Nuclear Energy (IEN, CNEN). The experimental part of this research was carried out in Argonauta, a nuclear research reactor belonging to IEN. The Database is made available in the sequel. All the videos are already rectified. The Projection and Homography matrices are given in the end, for both cameras. Please, acknowledge the use of this Database in any publication.

Prática de ensino supervisionado no 1.º e 2.º ciclo do ensino básico: a desenvolvimento da consciência linguística num 1.º ano de escolaridade

Relatório de Estágio apresentado à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção de grau de mestre em Ensino do 1.º e do 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Sistema de visão para aterragem automática de UAV

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Automação e Electrónica Industrial