Applying machine learning methods to avalanche forecasting

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process involving the assimilation of multiple data sources to make predictions over varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Numerically assisted forecasting often uses nearest neighbour methods (NN), which are known to have limitations when dealing with high dimensional data. We apply Support Vector Machines to a dataset from Lochaber, Scotland to assess their applicability in avalanche forecasting. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) belong to a family of theoretically based techniques from machine learning and are designed to deal with high dimensional data. Initial experiments showed that SVMs gave results which were comparable with NN for categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Experiments utilising the ability of SVMs to deal with high dimensionality in producing a spatial forecast show promise, but require further work.

Experience of meaning in life in bereaved informal caregivers of palliative care patients.

PURPOSE: Providing care for terminally ill family members places an enormous burden on informal caregivers. Meaning in life (MiL) may be a protective factor, but is jeopardised in caregiving and bereavement. This study evaluates the following questions: To what extent do bereaved informal caregivers of palliative care (PC) patients experience meaning in their lives? What differences emerge in carers compared to the general German population? How does MiL relate to well-being in former caregivers? METHODS: Eighty-four bereaved PC caregivers completed the Schedule for Meaning in Life Evaluation, the Brief Symptom Inventory, the WHOQOL-BREF, a single-item numerical rating scale of quality of life, and the Satisfaction with Life Scale. The experience of MiL of bereaved caregivers was compared to a representative population sample (n=977). RESULTS: The overall MiL fulfillment of bereaved caregivers (69 % female, age 55.5 ± 12.9 years) was significantly lower than in the general population (68.5 ± 19.2 vs. 83.3 ± 14, p<.001), as was the overall importance ascribed to their meaning framework (76.6 ± 13.6 vs. 85.6 ± 12.3, p< .001). PC caregivers are far more likely to list friends, leisure, nature/animals, and altruism. Higher MiL was correlated with better life satisfaction and quality of life. CONCLUSION: Coping with the loss of a loved one is associated with changes in MiL framework and considerably impairs a carer's experience of MiL fulfillment. Individual MiL is associated with well-being in PC caregivers during early bereavement. Specific interventions for carers targeted at meaning reconstruction during palliative care and bereavement are needed to help individuals regain a sense of meaning and purpose.

An inventory of the marine and transitional Middle/Upper Eocene deposits of the Southeastern Pyrenean Foreland Basin (NE Spain)

In the southeastern Ebro Foreland Basin, the marine deposits of Lutetian and Bartonian age show excellent outcrop conditions, with a great lateral and horizontal continuity of lithostratigraphic units. In addition, the rich fossil record -mainly larger foraminifers-, provides biostratigraphic data of regional relevance for the whole Paleogene Pyrenean Basin, that can be used for the Middle Eocene biocorrelation of the western Tethys. This contribution is a sedimentary and biostratigraphic synthesis of the basic outcrops and sections of the Lutetian andBartonian marine and transitional deposits in the southeastern sector of the Ebro Foreland Basin.

Alternate Methods of Bridge Strengthening, HR-302, 1989

The need for upgrading a large number of understrength and obsolete bridges in the United States has been well documented in the literature. Through the performance of several Iowa DOT projects, the concept of strengthening bridges (simple and continuous spans) by post-tensioning has been developed. The purpose of this project was to investigate two additional strengthening alternatives that may be more efficient than post-tensioning in certain situations. The research program for each strengthening scheme included a literature review, laboratory testing of the strengthening scheme, and a finite-element analysis of the scheme. For clarity the two strengthening schemes are presented separately. In Part 1 of this report, the strengthening of existing steel stringers in composite steel beam concrete-deck bridges by providing partial end restraint was shown to be feasible. Part 2 of this report summarizes the research that was undertaken to strengthen the negative moment regions of continuous, composite bridges. Two schemes were investigated: post-compression of stringers and superimposed trusses within the stringers.

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Psychometric evaluation of the IWQOL-Lite (Spanish version) when applied to a sample of obese patients awaiting bariatric surgery

Background Obesity may have an impact on key aspects of health-related quality of life (HRQOL). In this context, the Impact of Weight Quality of Life (IWQOL) questionnaire was the first scale designed to assess HRQOL. The aim of the present study was twofold: to assess HRQOL in a sample of Spanish patients awaiting bariatric surgery and to determine the psychometric properties of the IWQOL-Lite and its sensitivity to detect differences in HRQOL across groups. Methods Participants were 109 obese adult patients (BMI¿ 35 kg/m2) from Barcelona, to whom the following measurement instruments were applied: IWQOL-Lite, Depression Anxiety Stress Scales, Brief Symptom Inventory, and self-perception items. Results Descriptive data regarding the IWQOL-Lite scores obtained by these patients are reported. Principal components analysis revealed a five-factor model accounting for 72.05% of the total variance, with factor loadings being adequate for all items. Corrected itemtotal correlations were acceptable for all items. Cronbach"s alpha coefficients were excellent both for the subscales (0.880.93) and the total scale (0.95). The relationship between the IWQOLLite and other variables supports the construct validity of the scale. Finally, sensitivity analysis revealed large effect sizes when comparing scores obtained by extreme BMI groups. Conclusions This is the first study to report the application of the IWQOL-Lite to a sample of Spanish patients awaiting bariatric surgery and to confirm that the Spanish version of the instrument has adequate psychometric properties.

Stressful life events and neuroticism as predictors of late-life versus early-life depression.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of depression in younger adults is related to the combination of long-standing factors such as personality traits (neuroticism) and more acute factors such as the subjective impact of stressful life events. Whether an increase in physical illnesses changes these associations in old age depression remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We compared 79 outpatients with major depression and 102 never-depressed controls; subjects included both young (mean age: 35 years) and older (mean age: 70 years) adults. Assessments included the Social Readjustment Rating Scale, NEO Personality Inventory and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale. Logistic regression models analyzed the association between depression and subjective impact of stressful life events while controlling for neuroticism and physical illness. RESULTS: Patients and controls experienced the same number of stressful life events in the past 12 months. However, in contrast to the controls, patients associated the events with a subjective negative emotional impact. Negative stress impact and levels of neuroticism, but not physical illness, significantly predicted depression in young age. In old age, negative stress impact was weakly associated with depression. In this age group, depressive illness was also determined by physical illness burden and neuroticism. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that the subjective impact of life stressors, although rated as of the same magnitude, plays a less important role in accounting for depression in older age compared to young age. They also indicate an increasing weight of physical illness burden in the prediction of depression occurrence in old age.

New, low estimate for carbon stock in global forest vegetation based on inventory data

Abstract