Prediction of myocardial infarction size using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction

Objectives The relevance of the SYNTAX score for the particular case of patients with acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)  has previously only been studied in the setting of post hoc analysis of large prospective randomized clinical trials. A "real-life" population approach has never been explored before. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the SYNTAX score for the prediction of the myocardial infarction size, estimated by the creatin-kinase (CK) peak value, using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary coronary intervention for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Methods The primary endpoint of the study was myocardial infarction size as measured by the CK peak value. The SYNTAX score was calculated retrospectively in 253 consecutive patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) in a large tertiary referral center in Switzerland, between January 2009 and June 2010. Linear regression analysis was performed to compare myocardial infarction size with the SYNTAX score. This same endpoint was then stratified according to SYNTAX score tertiles: low <22 (n=178), intermediate [22-32] (n=60), and high >=33 (n=15). Results There were no significant differences in terms of clinical characteristics between the three groups. When stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles, average CK peak values of 1985 (low<22), 3336 (intermediate [22-32]) and 3684 (high>=33) were obtained with a p-value <0.0001. Bartlett's test for equal variances between the three groups was 9.999 (p-value <0.0067). A moderate Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r=0.4074) with a high statistical significance level (p-value <0.0001) was found. The coefficient of determination (R^2=0.1660) showed that approximately 17% of the variation of CK peak value (myocardial infarction size) could be explained by the SYNTAX score, i.e. by the coronary disease complexity. Conclusion In an all-comers population, the SYNTAX score is an additional tool in predicting myocardial infarction size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). The stratification of patients in different risk groups according to SYNTAX enables to identify a high-risk population that may warrant particular patient care.

Efficacy of brief motivational intervention at army conscription to address alcohol use and related problems: a randomized controlled trial

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of brief motivational intervention (BMI) in reducing alcohol use and related problems among binge drinkers randomly selected from a census of 20 year-old French speaking Swiss men and to test the hypothesis that BMI contributes to maintain low-risk drinking among non-bingers. Methods: Randomized controlled trial comparing the impact of BMI on weekly alcohol use, frequency of binge drinking and occurrence of alcohol-related problems. Setting: Army recruitment center. Participants: A random sample of 622 men were asked to participate, 178 either refused, or missed appointment, or had to follow military assessment procedures instead, resulting in 418 men randomized into BMI or control conditions, 88.7% completing the 6-month follow-up assessment. Intervention: A single face-to-face BMI session exploring alcohol use and related problems in order to stimulate behaviour change perspective in a non-judgmental, empathic manner based on the principles of motivational interviewing (MI). Main outcome measures: Weekly alcohol use, binge drinking frequency and the occurrence of 12 alcohol-related consequences. Results: Among binge drinkers, we observed a 20% change in drinking induced by BMI, with a reduction in weekly drinking of 1.5 drink in the BMI group, compared to an increase of 0.8 drink per week in the control group (incidence rate ratio 0.8, 95% confidence interval 0,66 to 0,98, p = 0.03). BMI did not influence the frequency of binge drinking and the occurrence of 12 possible alcohol-related consequences. However, BMI induced a reduction in the alcohol use of participants who, after drinking over the past 12 months, experienced alcohol-related consequences, i.e., hangover (-20%), missed a class (-53%), got behind at school (-54%), argued with friends (-38%), engaged in unplanned sex (-45%) or did not use protection when having sex (-64%). BMI did not reduce weekly drinking in those who experienced the six other problems screened. Among non-bingers, BMI did not contribute to maintain low-risk drinking. Conclusions: At army conscription, BMI reduced alcohol use in binge drinkers, particularly in those who recently experienced alcohol-related adverse consequences. No preventive effect of BMI was observed among non-bingers. BMI is an interesting preventive option in young binge drinkers, particularly in countries with mandatory army recruitment.

Identification of active oxalotrophic bacteria by Bromodeoxyuridine DNA labeling in a microcosm soil experiments

The oxalate-carbonate pathway (OCP) leads to a potential carbon sink in terrestrial environments. This process is linked to the activity of oxalotrophic bacteria. Although isolation and molecular characterizations are used to study oxalotrophic bacteria, these approaches do not give information on the active oxalotrophs present in soil undergoing the OCP. The aim of this study was to assess the diversity of active oxalotrophic bacteria in soil microcosms using the Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) DNA labeling technique. Soil was collected near an oxalogenic tree (Milicia excelsa). Different concentrations of calcium oxalate (0.5%, 1%, and 4% w/w) were added to the soil microcosms and compared with an untreated control. After 12days of incubation, a maximal pH of 7.7 was measured for microcosms with oxalate (initial pH 6.4). At this time point, a DGGE profile of the frc gene was performed from BrdU-labeled soil DNA and unlabeled soil DNA. Actinobacteria (Streptomyces- and Kribbella-like sequences), Gammaproteobacteria and Betaproteobacteria were found as the main active oxalotrophic bacterial groups. This study highlights the relevance of Actinobacteria as members of the active bacterial community and the identification of novel uncultured oxalotrophic groups (i.e. Kribbella) active in soils.

One, two, (three), infinity: Newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments

"Beauty-contest" is a game in which participants have to choose, typically, a number in [0,100], the winner being the person whose number is closest to a proportion of the average of all chosen numbers. We describe and analyze Beauty-contest experiments run in newspapers in UK, Spain, and Germany and find stable patterns of behavior across them, despite the uncontrollability of these experiments. These results are then compared with lab experiments involving undergraduates and game theorists as subjects, in what must be one of the largest empirical corroborations of interactive behavior ever tried. We claim that all observed behavior, across a wide variety of treatments and subject pools, can be interpretedas iterative reasoning. Level-1 reasoning, Level-2 reasoning and Level-3 reasoning are commonly observed in all the samples, while the equilibrium choice (Level-Maximum reasoning) is only prominently chosen by newspaper readers and theorists. The results show the empirical power of experiments run with large subject-pools, and open the door for more experimental work performed on the rich platform offered by newspapers and magazines.

The couples life story approach: a dyadic intervention for dementia.

This article describes an approach for working with individuals who have dementia, along with their spouses or partners. The 5-week intervention focuses on helping couples communicate, reminisce about the story of their relationship, find photographs and mementoes from their past, and develop a book that incorporates these mementoes. This clinical approach highlights the strengths and the resilience of couples and adds to the limited repertoire of dyadic interventions for dementia care which are currently available. Preliminary findings from 24 couples are presented, including the intervention's feasibility and acceptability.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Driver scheduling problem modelling

The Drivers Scheduling Problem (DSP) consists of selecting a set of duties for vehicle drivers, for example buses, trains, plane or boat drivers or pilots, for the transportation of passengers or goods. This is a complex problem because it involves several constraints related to labour and company rules and can also present different evaluation criteria and objectives. Being able to develop an adequate model for this problem that can represent the real problem as close as possible is an important research area.The main objective of this research work is to present new mathematical models to the DSP problem that represent all the complexity of the drivers scheduling problem, and also demonstrate that the solutions of these models can be easily implemented in real situations. This issue has been recognized by several authors and as important problem in Public Transportation. The most well-known and general formulation for the DSP is a Set Partition/Set Covering Model (SPP/SCP). However, to a large extend these models simplify some of the specific business aspects and issues of real problems. This makes it difficult to use these models as automatic planning systems because the schedules obtained must be modified manually to be implemented in real situations. Based on extensive passenger transportation experience in bus companies in Portugal, we propose new alternative models to formulate the DSP problem. These models are also based on Set Partitioning/Covering Models; however, they take into account the bus operator issues and the perspective opinions and environment of the user.We follow the steps of the Operations Research Methodology which consist of: Identify the Problem; Understand the System; Formulate a Mathematical Model; Verify the Model; Select the Best Alternative; Present the Results of theAnalysis and Implement and Evaluate. All the processes are done with close participation and involvement of the final users from different transportation companies. The planner s opinion and main criticisms are used to improve the proposed model in a continuous enrichment process. The final objective is to have a model that can be incorporated into an information system to be used as an automatic tool to produce driver schedules. Therefore, the criteria for evaluating the models is the capacity to generate real and useful schedules that can be implemented without many manual adjustments or modifications. We have considered the following as measures of the quality of the model: simplicity, solution quality and applicability. We tested the alternative models with a set of real data obtained from several different transportation companies and analyzed the optimal schedules obtained with respect to the applicability of the solution to the real situation. To do this, the schedules were analyzed by the planners to determine their quality and applicability. The main result of this work is the proposition of new mathematical models for the DSP that better represent the realities of the passenger transportation operators and lead to better schedules that can be implemented directly in real situations.

New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.

Forest fires: Evaluation of government intervention measures

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between government measures, volunteer participation, climate variables and forest fires. A number of studies have related forest fires to causes of ignition, to fire history in one area, to the type of vegetation and weathercharacteristics or to community institutions, but there is little research on the relation between fire production and government prevention and extinction measures from a policy evaluation perspective.An observational approach is first applied to select forest fires in the north east of Spain. Taking a selection of fires with a certain size, a multiple regression analysis is conducted to find significant relations between policy instruments under the control of the government and the number of hectares burn in each case, controlling at the same time the effect of weather conditions and other context variables. The paper brings evidence on the effects of simultaneity and the relevance of recurring to army soldiers in specific days with extraordinary high simultaneity. The analysis also brings light on the effectiveness of twopreventive policies and of helicopters for extinction tasks.

Identifying the gap between need and intervention for alcohol use disorders in Europe.

AIMS: A literature review of existing research on the prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and availability of alcohol interventions in Europe was conducted. The review also explored what is known about the gap between need and provision of alcohol interventions in Europe. METHODS: The review search strategy included: (i) descriptive studies of alcohol intervention systems in Europe; (ii) studies of alcohol service provision in Europe; and (iii) studies of prevalence of AUD and alcohol needs assessment in Europe. RESULTS: Europe has a relatively high level of alcohol consumption and the resulting disabilities are the highest in the world. Most research on implementation of alcohol interventions in Europe has been restricted to screening and brief interventions. Alcohol needs assessment methodology has been developed but has not been applied in comparative studies across countries in Europe. CONCLUSIONS: This review points to key gaps in knowledge related to alcohol interventions in Europe. There is a lack of comparative data on variations in alcohol treatment systems across European countries and there is also a lack of comparative data on the prevalence of alcohol use disorders across European countries and the relative gap between need and access to treatment. The forthcoming Alcohol Measures for Public Health Research Alliance (AMPHORA) research project work package on 'Early identification and treatment' aims to address these gaps.

Delayed-Choice Experiments and the Metaphysics of Entanglement

Delayed-choice experiments in quantum mechanics are often taken to undermine a realistic interpretation of the quantum state. More specifically, Healey has recently argued that the phenomenon of delayed-choice entanglement swapping is incompatible with the view that entanglement is a physical relation between quantum systems. This paper argues against these claims. It first reviews two paradigmatic delayed-choice experiments and analyzes their metaphysical implications. It then applies the results of this analysis to the case of entanglement swapping, showing that such experiments pose no threat to realism about entanglement.

Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth

Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.

Demand for pharmaceutical drugs: A choice modelling experiment

Despite the importance of supplier inducement and brand loyalty inthe drug purchasing process, little empirical evidence is to be foundwith regard to the influence that these factors exert on patients decisions. Under the new scenario of easier access to information,patients are becoming more demanding and even go as far asquestioning their physicians prescription. Furthermore, newregulation also encourages patients to adopt an active role in thedecision between brand-name and generic drugs. Using a statedpreference model based on a choice survey, I have found evidenceof how significant physicians prescription and pharmacists recommendation become throughout the drug purchase process and,to what extent, brand loyalty influences the final decision. Asfar as we are aware, this paper is the first to explicitlytake consumers preferences into account rather than focusingon the behavior of health professionals.

Functionality of the plastron in adults of Neochetina eichhorniae Warner (Coleoptera, Curculionidae): aspects of the integument coating and submersion laboratory experiments

The plastron theory was tested in adults of Neochetina eichhorniae Warner, 1970, through the analysis of the structure that coats these insects' integument and also through submersion laboratorial experiments. The tegument processes were recognized in three types: agglutinated scales with large perforations, plumose scales of varied sizes and shapes, and hairs. The experiments were carried out on 264 adult individuals which were kept submerged at different time intervals (n = 11) and in two types of treatment, natural non-aerated water and previously boiled water, with four repetitions for each treatment. The tests showed a maximum mortality after 24 hours of immersion in the previously boiled water treatment. The survival of the adults was negative and significantly correlated with the types of treatment employed and within the different time intervals. The values of oxygen dissolved in water (mg/l) differed significantly within the types of treatment employed. They were positively correlated with the survival of the adults in the two types of treatment, although more markedly in the treatment with previously boiled water. The mortality of adults after 24 hours of submersion in the treatment with previously boiled water may be associated with the physical-chemical conditions of the non-tested water in this study, such as low surface tension and concentration of solutes. These results suggest plastron functionality in the adults of this species.