Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

Scale-dependent response diversity of seabirds to prey in the North Sea

Functional response diversity is defined as the diversity of responses to environmental change among species that contribute to the same ecosystem function. Because different ecological processes dominate on different spatial and temporal scales, response diversity is likely to be scale dependent. Using three extensive data sets on seabirds, pelagic fish, and zooplankton, we investigate the strength and diversity in the response of seabirds to prey in the North Sea over three scales of ecological organization. Two-stage analyses were used to partition the variance in the abundance of predators and prey among the different scales of investigation: variation from year to year, variation among habitats, and variation on the local patch scale. On the year-to-year scale, we found a strong and synchronous response of seabirds to the abundance of prey, resulting in low response diversity. Conversely, as different seabird species were found in habitats dominated by different prey species, we found a high diversity in the response of seabirds to prey on the habitat scale. Finally, on the local patch scale, seabirds were organized in multispecies patches. These patches were weakly associated with patches of prey, resulting in a weak response strength and a low response diversity. We suggest that ecological similarities among seabird species resulted in low response diversity on the year-to-year scale. On the habitat scale, we suggest that high response diversity was due to interspecific competition and niche segregation among seabird species. On the local patch scale, we suggest that facilitation with respect to the detection and accessibility of prey patches resulted in overlapping distribution of seabirds but weak associations with prey. The observed scale dependencies in response strength and diversity have implications for how the seabird community will respond to different environmental disturbances.

Scale-dependent foraging ecology of a marine top predator modelled using passive acoustic data

1.Understanding which environmental factors drive foraging preferences is critical for the development of effective management measures, but resource use patterns may emerge from processes that occur at different spatial and temporal scales. Direct observations of foraging are also especially challenging in marine predators, but passive acoustic techniques provide opportunities to study the behaviour of echolocating species over a range of scales. 2.We used an extensive passive acoustic data set to investigate the distribution and temporal dynamics of foraging in bottlenose dolphins using the Moray Firth (Scotland, UK). Echolocation buzzes were identified with a mixture model of detected echolocation inter-click intervals and used as a proxy of foraging activity. A robust modelling approach accounting for autocorrelation in the data was then used to evaluate which environmental factors were associated with the observed dynamics at two different spatial and temporal scales. 3.At a broad scale, foraging varied seasonally and was also affected by seabed slope and shelf-sea fronts. At a finer scale, we identified variation in seasonal use and local interactions with tidal processes. Foraging was best predicted at a daily scale, accounting for site specificity in the shape of the estimated relationships. 4.This study demonstrates how passive acoustic data can be used to understand foraging ecology in echolocating species and provides a robust analytical procedure for describing spatio-temporal patterns. Associations between foraging and environmental characteristics varied according to spatial and temporal scale, highlighting the need for a multi-scale approach. Our results indicate that dolphins respond to coarser scale temporal dynamics, but have a detailed understanding of finer-scale spatial distribution of resources.